Taly Purwa

• Master of Statistics (M.Stat.)
• Statistician at Statistics Indonesia

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan model terbaik untuk klasifikasi data imbalanced, yaitu rumah tangga sampel Susenas Maret 2017 di Kabupaten Karangasem, ke dalam kategori miskin atau tidak. Metode yang digunakan adalah Regresi Logistik dan Random Forest dimana masing-masing diterapkan skema cross validation (CV), yaitu stratified 5-fold CV...

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), stock prices and the rupiah exchange rate to the US dollar are important macroeconomic variables which their movements show the economic performance and can affect the monetary and fiscal policies of Indonesia. This makes forecasting effort of these variables become important for policy planning. While many previous...

This study investigates the impact of earthquakes on the number of airline passenger arrivals and departures in West Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. The monthly data of airline passengers at Lombok International Airport (Lombok), Sultan M. Kaharuddin Airport (Sumbawa), and Sultan M. Salahudin Airport (Bima) from January 2008 to December 2018 wer...

This study examines the impact of existence of the Indonesian Palapa Ring Project (PRP) infrastructure on connectivity and economic activities in 46 districts in the West, Central, and East package of PRP in 2015-2020. Connectivity is an internet activity that measured by using percentage of internet use and economic activity is measured by using G...

In line with the global economic recovery, Indonesia's post-pandemic economic recovery is experiencing major challenge caused by uncertainty due to increasing inflationary pressure. Efforts to reduce inflationary fluctuations were carried out by the government in order to maintain optimal economic growth under the inflation targeting policy framewo...

West Java Province has the second largest tourism potential in Indonesia in terms of the number of domestic tourist trips. The relatively large number of choices and types of tourist attractions, as well as the geographical position of West Java are advantages in attracting tourist interest. However, the majority of tourist visits are only focused...

Poverty is one of the biggest challenges facing the world nowadays. Numerous studies have concentrated on the characteristics that determine poverty to identify poor households. One of the most important factors is the physical type of the house. The physical type of houses includes floor type, wall type, roof type, and floor area per inhabitant in...

This research aims to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the young population not engaged in employment, education, or training (NEET) in East Java Province and four regions, namely Madura, Mataraman, Padalungan, and Arek. Logistic regression analysis was applied to the National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) microdata from August 2019-20...

During the COVID-19 pandemic and the Industry 4.0 era, the role of the Internet became extremely important for connecting the society. Unfortunately, heterogeneous geographical, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics may create different roles in using the Internet, leading to a digital divide. Utilizing National Socioeconomic Survey (Susena...

This study measured the impact of Covid-19 on the total revenue of manufacturing micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Bali, in aggregate and specifically by each type of 2-digit ISIC. Using the Cobb-Douglas model, the impact of fixed capital, the number of labors, and factors related to technical inefficiency were also evaluated. According to the...

Global education systems are facing the biggest disruption in history during the Covid-19 pandemic. The schools are closed preventing spread of the outbreak while the learning method switched to online distance learning. Unfortunately, the implementation of this new method is significantly constrained by socioeconomic conditions of the household on...

The economic shock as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in an economic contraction , including East Java. The shift in consumer behavior in utilizing e-commerce to adapt to pandemic constraints is a good catalyst for stimulating household final consumption as the largest shareholder in the East Java economy. This study tries to identify so...

Air temperature is an important data for several sectors. The demand of fast, exact and accurate forecast on temperature data is getting extremely important since it is useful for planning of several important sectors. In order to forecast mean daily temperature data at 1 st and 2 nd Perak BMKG Station in Surabaya, this study used the univariate me...

This study analyzed the impact magnitudes and patterns of several intervention events, including eight earthquakes and Covid-19 pandemic, on the number of unloading and loading goods in the three main ports and airports in West Nusa Tenggara Province during 2015-2020. The multi-input intervention models are performed for twelve series data obtained...

The widening inequality in East Java is illustrated by the distance between the Gini ratio achievements in 2014-2018 from the targets set out in the East Java Regional Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMD). This study attempts to decompose the Theil Index based on social, economic and spatial dimensions using household micro data from the March 2018...

Support Vector Machine (SVM) is widely used for classification that works by maximizing the margin of a classifier. For multiclass classification problems, SVM could be used by applying a decomposition approach consisting of "one against one" and "one against all". Unfortunately, this approach can eliminate the information of class relationships be...

This study provides an alternative procedure to produce the penalized spline small area estimation (P-Spline SAE) model by plotting each of auxiliary variable and variable interest as a simple nonlinearity identification and performing the iterative procedure: by estimating the model, producing partial residual plots to check model adequacy and als...

Since Indonesia is located in the Ring of Fire, it is well understood that it has been highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Earthquakes can have many effects, including infrastructure damage and socioeconomic disruption. During 2009 to 2019, West Nusa Tenggara Province had the most earthquake frequencies. This paper aims to investigate the impacts of...

As one of the priority sectors in economic development of Indonesia, tourism is expected to be the main key in accelerating economic and social growth, hence reducing poverty. The tourism performance, especially international tourism market, is highly prone to intervention events that can reduce the number of inbound tourists and produce a negative...

Penelitian ini menerapkan model Spatial Logit-normal pada Small Area Estimation (SAE) untuk estimasi proporsi penduduk dengan asupan kalori minimum di bawah 1.400 kkal/kapita/hari pada level kecamatan di Provinsi Bali Tahun 2014 yang merupakan indikator 2.1.2(A) pada tujuan ke-2 SDGs dalam rangka mengukur capaian dan mendukung tercapainya target SD...

Small Area Estimation (SAE) is an indirect method that has been widely used for estimating parameters in a small area or small domain by borrowing strength of predictor variables from census or registration. This study uses Hierarchical Bayes (HB) method under the univariate and bivariate Fay-Herriot (FH) model to estimate monthly average per capit...