Susan Kay

Susan Kay
Plymouth Marine Laboratory | PML · Marine Ecosystem Modelling and Predictions

PhD

About

65
Publications
28,392
Reads
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1,731
Citations
Introduction
I'm a marine ecosystem modeller, working on 3D numerical models for various regions of the world. Currently my interests focus around producing models that will be of value to decision-makers in the fields of marine conservation, fisheries protection and poverty alleviation.
Additional affiliations
January 2012 - present
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Position
  • Ecosystem modeller
Description
  • Numerical modeller, working on 3d marine ecosystem models for regional seas in various parts of the world.
September 2008 - December 2011
University of Exeter
Position
  • PhD Student
Description
  • PhD Thesis "Radiative transfer modelling for sun glint correction in marine satellite imagery" , http://hdl.handle.net/10036/3523

Publications

Publications (65)
Article
Climate change will expose the food producing sector to a range of challenges. Inland aquaculture farms are particularly vulnerable, due to the difficulty in changing their location, and therefore require specific tools to predict the influence of direct and indirect effects on production, environment, and economic feasibility. The objective of our...
Article
Full-text available
Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change (‘climate-smart MSP’) is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change (‘CC’) modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their br...
Preprint
The National Marine Planning Framework (NMPF) provides a long-term structure for the effective spatial management of marine activities reliant upon Ireland’s marine space and resources. This assessment was co-developed to support the ambition to enable climate-adaptive spatial management through the NMPF, supporting the sustainable use of the Irish...
Article
Full-text available
Coral reefs are a natural habitat for many species, as well as being of high economic and touristic significance. However, they represent an extremely sensitive ecosystem with a narrow ecological limit: prolonged high temperatures can lead to bleaching, in which corals expel their symbiotic algae and eventually corals will degrade and die. Based on...
Article
Full-text available
Aquaculture managers and industry must take into account the impact of climate change on production and environmental quality to ensure that sector growth is sustainable over the coming decades, a key requirement for food security. The potential effects of climate change on aquaculture range from changes to production capacity in existing cultivati...
Article
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused (and continues to cause) severe disruption in global and local economies and has forced countries, societies, and individuals to adapt quickly to the unprecedented and unpredictable situations. Despite the obvious negative consequences of the pandemic, many have called for efforts to identify transformative opportun...
Article
Full-text available
Abstract Forecasting of climate change impacts on marine aquaculture production has become a major research task, which requires taking into account the biases and uncertainties arising from ocean climate models in coastal areas, as well as considering culture management strategies. Focusing on the suspended mussel culture in the NW Iberian coastal...
Preprint
Full-text available
The seas of Southeast Asia are home to some of the world’s most diverse ecosystems and resources that support the livelihoods and wellbeing of millions of people. Climate change will bring temperature changes, acidification and other environmental change, with uncertain consequences for human and natural systems in the region. We present the first...
Technical Report
This is the Quality Information Document for the following real-time CMEMS product: NORTHWESTSHELF_ANALYSIS_FORECAST_BIO_004_002b: the biogeochemical parts of a North West European Shelf Analysis performed at ~7 km resolution.
Article
Full-text available
This is the first attempt to apply an expert-based ecological vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on the main marine resources of Portugal. The vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and expected directional effects of 74 species of fish and invertebrates of commercial interest is estimated based on criteria...
Article
Full-text available
A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords: Bivalve Pacific oyster Dynamic energy budget (DEB) Marine spatial planning (MSP) Offshore aquaculture Site selection, climate change A B S T R A C T Aquaculture development in Europe, while critical to the European Union (EU) Blue Growth strategy, has stagnated over the past decades due largely to high competition fo...
Article
Full-text available
Numerical modeling is a key tool to complement the current physical and biogeochemical observational datasets. It is essential for understanding the role of oceanographic processes on marine food webs and producing climate change projections of variables affecting key ecosystem functions. In this work, we evaluate the horizontal and vertical patter...
Data
Seasonal and spatial vertical profiles of data and model outputs, and much more
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report distils the main results of the EU H2020 project CERES "Climate Change and European Fisheries and Aquaculture" (grant number 678193) executed between 2016 and 2020. See the report for citation format.
Article
The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and...
Article
Full-text available
The population of European anchovy of the Bay of Biscay collapsed at the beginning of the 21st century, causing the closure of its fishery between 2005 and 2010. In order to study both the human and environmental causes of the anchovy population dynamics, an approach coupling individual bioenergetics to an individual-based model was applied between...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Space available for aquaculture, in Europe as elsewhere, is in limited supply and high demand. Additional tools are required to support the identification of potential new sites and to assess their suitability and sustainability for various aquaculture segments. In this report, various aquaculture indicators that were derived using satellite Earth...
Article
Full-text available
In this work we produced a long‐term reanalysis of the phytoplankton community structure in the Mediterranean Sea and used it to define ecoregions. These were based on the spatial variability of the phytoplankton type fractions and their influence on selected carbon fluxes. A regional ocean color product of four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs...
Article
Full-text available
The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides regular and systematic reference information on the physical and biogeochemical ocean and sea-ice state for the global ocean and the European regional seas. CMEMS serves a wide range of users (more than 15,000 users are now registered to the service) and applications. Observation...
Article
Full-text available
The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides regular and systematic reference information on the physical and biogeochemical ocean and sea-ice state for the global ocean and the European regional seas. CMEMS serves a wide range of users (more than 15,000 users are now registered to the service) and applications. Observation...
Presentation
Full-text available
The integration of a Dynamic Energy Budget model in a population IBM model permits to hindcast the population dynamics of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay. Different ecological indicators at the individual and population level are obtained, allowing to understand the processes driving the anchovy dynamics.
Article
Full-text available
Sea level rise will expose millions of people to increasing coastal hazards and eventual land loss. Thus, it is important to understand how residents will make decisions about whether and when to move away with increasing exposure. Historically, non-material dimensions of human decision-making have been missing from quantitative modelling of migrat...
Presentation
Full-text available
Global warming is a major impact of climate change. Changes in temperature trends and variability bring about associated shifts in hydrology and hydrography of water bodies, lead to primary production shifts, including patterns of occurrence of algal blooms, and may promote greater incidence of pathogens, all factors that have important impacts on...
Article
Full-text available
This paper proposes the use of assimilation of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) surface chlorophyll for operational forecasting of biogeochemistry on the North-West European (NWE) Shelf. We explicitly compare the 5-day forecasting skill of three runs of a physical-biogeochemical model: (a) a free reference run, (b) a run with daily data assimi...
Article
Full-text available
Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world’s population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangla...
Chapter
Full-text available
The magnitude and extent of fluvial, tidal and storm surge flooding in coastal Bangladesh are quantified using hydrodynamic numerical models under a series of climate and sea-level rise scenarios to 2100. Fluvial floods occur from July to October and are confined to the northern part of the coastal region. Tidal floods occur in the southern part of...
Chapter
Full-text available
A flexible meta-model, the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), is developed to capture the socio-biophysical system of coastal Bangladesh as simply and efficiently as possible. Operating at the local scale, calculations occur efficiently using a variety of methods, including linear statistical emulators, which capture the behaviour of...
Chapter
Full-text available
Within the Bangladesh delta there is a significant dependence on aquatic ecosystem services both economically and for local well-being. The fisheries industry has seen steady growth with production tripling in the last two decades, largely driven by the expansion in inland aquaculture fisheries. Analysis shows that the impacts of climate change are...
Chapter
Full-text available
The Bay of Bengal provides important ecosystem services to the Bangladesh delta. It is also subject to the consequences of climate change as monsoon atmospheric circulation and fresh water input from the major rivers are the dominating influences. Changes in marine circulation will affect patterns of biological production through alterations in the...
Chapter
Full-text available
Deltas are distinct in terms of the concentration of freshwater, nutrients and especially sediment inputs to a small concentrated area of the coastal zone, creating conditions ideal for fertile ecosystems, dense population and high economic activity. Ecosystem services within these areas can provide services significant in the maintenance of well-b...
Technical Report
Full-text available
To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, integrated information about the future is required, including: climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation policy scenarios. This working paper describes the overall scenario framework, methods and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA project acro...
Article
Full-text available
To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA)...
Article
Full-text available
The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) provides regular and systematic reference information on the physical state, variability and dynamics of the ocean, ice and marine ecosystems for the global ocean and the European regional seas. CMEMS includes both satellite and in-situ high level products prepared by Thematic Assembly Ce...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socioeconomic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population...
Article
Full-text available
The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline peri...
Article
Full-text available
The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protec...
Article
Full-text available
The European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simula...
Article
Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding n...
Article
This paper presents the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill, confidence, and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble...
Article
Full-text available
The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s....
Article
Full-text available
The ERSEM model is one of the most established ecosystem models for the lower trophic levels of the marine food-web in the scientific literature. Since its original development in the early nineties it has evolved significantly from a coastal ecosystem model for the North-Sea to a generic tool for ecosystem simulations from shelf seas to the 5 glob...
Article
Full-text available
Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in both West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The fisheries industry provides a crucial source of income and food for Bangladesh, and is second only to agriculture in the overall economy of the country. Fisheries accounts for 4.4% of Bangladesh GDP, 22.8% of agriculture sector and 2.5% of total export earnings. It also contributes 60% of the animal protein intake of Bangladeshis, and even more...
Article
Full-text available
The key function of the scenario development process in the ESPA Deltas project is to link the concerns and priorities of relevant stakeholders with the integrated models. Once the biophysical models have been integrated, these will be combined with the poverty / health outputs of the project. In order to fully facilitate the connection between sta...
Article
Full-text available
Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increas-ing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish...
Poster
Full-text available
The world's oceans play a crucial role in the carbon budget, absorbing approximately a quarter of the CO2 emitted through the burning of fossil fuels. The North Atlantic (NA) is the ocean region that accumulates the largest inventory of anthropogenic CO2 (IPCC AR5). It is therefore essential to understand effects of climate change and other impacts...
Conference Paper
We review the state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclones and their impacts on coastal ecosystems, as well as the livelihood and health of the coastal communities, under the present and future climate, with application to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This region is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones as it is very low-lying and dense...