Sugiharso Safuan

University of Indonesia | UI · Economics

This research investigates the impact of monetary policy instruments employed by the Bank of Indonesia (BI), including reserve requirement (GWM), policy rate, and loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, on bank credit by sector in Indonesia. We utilize FMOLS and DOLS techniques to estimate the effects of policy instruments and COVID-19 variables on bank credit...

In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia's real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index),...

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of policy mix in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and the Del Negro et al. (2007) approach to estimate the model. We investigate the effectiveness of policy mix in Indonesia by taking into account real and financial l...

This study analyzes the impact of domestic investors’ participation in government debt on bank loans to the private sector in advanced and emerging countries. We find that domestic bank participation in government debt has a more profound negative impact on bank loans to the private sector in advanced than in emerging countries. Meanwhile, domestic...

In this study, we use a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression model to investigate the episodic relationship between financial stress and the key macroeconomic variables in the case of Indonesia. We find different nature of relationships among Indonesia’s real sector variables (household consumption expenditure and consumer price index),...

This study analyzes the impact of domestic investors’ participation in government debt on bank loans to the private sector in advanced and emerging countries. We find that domestic bank participation in government debt has a more profound negative impact on bank loans to the private sector in advanced than in emerging countries. Meanwhile, domestic...

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of policy mix in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and the Del Negro et al. (2007) approach to estimate the model. We investigate the effectiveness of policy mix in Indonesia by taking into account real and financial l...

Many developing countries, like Indonesia, struggle with tax evasion. It reduces government revenues, impeding government activities and a country’s economic development. In this study, we look at the topic of tax evasion in Indonesia from 1980 to 2019. Using the “modified-cash-deposit-ratio” technique, we estimate the scale of tax evasion in Indon...

In this paper, we use daily administrative data from January 25, 2020 to December 31, 2020 to examine the relationship between job losses and the Malaysian lockdown measures. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to estimate both the long-run and short-run models. The results of the Bounds F-test for cointegration reveal that...

We examine the relationship between financial sector development and the shadow economy in Indonesia from 1980 to 2020. We estimate the size of Indonesia’s shadow economy using the “Modified Cash to Deposits Ratio” approach. We then construct a long-term model using the size of Indonesia’s shadow economy as the dependent variable. We set financial...

Money (inflation) has played a vital role in economic growth. However, the nexus between them has always drawn mesmerizing debates. From the thoughts of Classical and Keynes which argued the existence of money neutrality, to the level of empirical studies which find either positive or negative correlation between inflation and economic growth. Rece...

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's export to-United States, Japan and China using both aggregate and disaggregate data. We first estimated each pair country with export demand equations based on data from 1996 to 2014. A set of export demand equations is estimated by using Seemingly Unrelated Regression to cha...

The establishment of the ACFTA marks the enactment of a liberalization era between ASEAN and China. Implementation of tariff elimination cooperation agreement starts from the readiest product (EHP), Normal Track (NT), up to the most Sensitive product (HSL). This trade barrier removal agreement is expected to encourage economic growth in each countr...

Current account balance has an important role of measuring the direction and the amount of international loan. This study analyzes Indonesian external balance due to its solvency condition of external debt and sustainability of current account balance during 1970{2007 by intertemporal-model approach of current account. The results of cointegration...

This study aims to analyse the impact of trade liberalization by focusing on twelve priority industrial sectors in the ASEAN-5 (Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines). The General Equilibrium Model based on Multi-country Input Output Data as provided by the GTAP is used to measure potential economic benefits of reducing tarif...

The study examines saving behavior in ASEAN 5+3 namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Japan, Cina, and Korea during 1991-2007 and its implication toward global imbalances. By using fixed effect panel data regression, this research shows that government spending, interest rate and inflation, financial development through priv...

International Risk Sharing (IRS) adalah pembagian risiko secara internasional antar-negara dalam suatukawasan atau dalam kawasan berbeda yang disebabkan oleh adanya gejolak spesik terhadap suatuperekonomian yang menyebabkan pendapatan (konsumsinya) beruktuasi. Tujuan studi ini adalah untukmenganalisis pengaruh dari terjadinya penggabungan mata uang...

One of some problematic issues of identification of the efiectiveness of the monetary policy is the question on whether the monetary policy mechanism transmissions can perform fully in transmitting the changes of monetary policies into the national and regional level of economy. On earlier studies, Muelgini (2004) relatively compares the eflectiven...

Makalah ini mengevaluasi perbedaan antara rata-rata pendidikan minimal yang dibutuhkan oleh suatu jenis pekerjaan dan pendidikan pekerja yang bekerja di jenis pekerjaan tersebut. Overeducation terjadi apabila pendidikan pekerja di jenis pekerjaan tertentu lebih tinggi dari yang dibutuhkan oleh jenis pekerjaan tersebut. Dengan menggunakan sample pek...

p>In the last decade, the term contagion has gained popularity in the economic literature. It describes a feature of financial crises that have engulfed a number of countries in the world (ERM 92-93, Argentina, Brazil in 1994, the Asian crisis 1997, the Russian Cold 1998 elsewhere). Contagion is said to be present when cross-market linkages (measur...

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Southampton, 2004.