Sue Natali

Woodwell Climate Research Center | WHRC

As permafrost degrades, the amount of organic soil carbon (C) that thaws during the growing season will increase, but decomposition may be limited by saturated soil conditions common in high latitude ecosystems. However, in some areas, soil drying is expected to accompany permafrost thaw as a result of increased water drainage, which may enhance C...

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitu...

A large pool of organic carbon (C) has been accumulating in the Arctic for thousands of years because cold and waterlogged conditions have protected soil organic material from microbial decomposition. As the climate warms this vast and frozen C pool is at risk of being thawed, decomposed, and released to the atmosphere as greenhouse gasses. At the...

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosy...

The carbon (C) storage capacity of northern latitude ecosystems may diminish as warming air temperatures increase permafrost thaw and stimulate decomposition of previously frozen soil organic C. However, warming may also enhance plant growth so that photosynthetic carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake may, in part, offset respiratory losses. To determine the...

The changing thermal state of permafrost is an important indicator of climate change in northern high latitude ecosystems. The seasonally thawed soil active layer thickness (ALT) overlying permafrost may be deepening as a consequence of enhanced polar warming and widespread permafrost thaw in northern permafrost regions (NPR). The associated increa...

While previously thought to be negligible, carbon emissions during the non-growing season (NGS) can be a substantial part of the annual carbon budget in the Arctic boreal zone (ABZ), which can shift the carbon balance of these ecosystems from a long-held annual carbon sink towards a net annual carbon source. The purpose of this review is to summari...

Ecosystems at high latitudes are under increasing stress from climate change. To understand changes in carbon fluxes, in situ measurements from eddy covariance networks are needed. However, there are large spatiotemporal gaps in the high-latitude eddy covariance network. Here we used the relative extrapolation error index in machine learning-based...

Ecosystems at high latitudes are under increasing stress from climate change. To understand changes in carbon fluxes, in situ measurements from eddy covariance networks are needed. However, there are large spatiotemporal gaps in the high-latitude eddy covariance network. Here we used the relative extrapolation error index in machine learning-based...

The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the t...

Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon...

The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO, CH, and NO across the terr...

The long-term net sink of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the northern permafrost region is projected to weaken or shift under climate change. But large uncertainties remain, even on present-day GHG budgets. We compare bottom-up (data-driven upscaling, process-based models) and top-down budgets (atmospheric inversion models)...

Landscapes are often assumed to be homogeneous when interpreting eddy covariance fluxes, which can lead to biases when gap-filling and scaling-up observations to determine regional carbon budgets. Tundra ecosystems are heterogeneous at multiple scales, with variation in plant functional types, soil moisture, thaw depth, and microtopography, for exa...

Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadian boreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change, which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the region from a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically i...

In the Arctic waterbodies are abundant and rapid thaw of permafrost is destabilizing the carbon cycle and changing hydrology. It is particularly important to quantify and accurately scale aquatic carbon emissions in arctic ecosystems. Recently available high-resolution remote sensing datasets capture the physical characteristics of arctic landscape...

Tundra environments are experiencing elevated levels of wildfire, and the frequency is expected to keep increasing due to rapid climate change in the Arctic. Tundra wildfires can release globally significant amounts of greenhouse gasses that influence the Earth's radiative balance. Here we develop a novel method for estimating carbon loss and the r...

Small water bodies (i.e., ponds; <0.01 km²) play an important role in Earth System processes, including carbon cycling and emissions of methane. Detection and monitoring of ponds using satellite imagery has been extremely difficult and many water maps are biased toward lakes (>0.01 km²). We leverage high‐resolution (3 m) optical satellite imagery f...

Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic eco...

In post‐fire Siberian larch forests, where tree density can vary within a burn perimeter, shrubs constitute a substantial portion of the vegetation canopy. Leaf area index (LAI), defined as the one‐sided total green leaf area per unit ground surface area, is useful for characterizing variation in plant canopies. We estimated LAI with allometry for...

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are thermokarst features in ice-rich hillslope permafrost terrain, and their occurrence in the warming Arctic is increasingly frequent and has caused dynamic changes to the landscape. RTS can significantly impact permafrost stability and generate substantial carbon emissions. Understanding the spatial and temporal di...

Future warming of the Arctic not only threatens to destabilize the enormous pool of organic carbon accumulated in permafrost soils but may also mobilize elements such as calcium (Ca) or silicon (Si). While for Greenlandic soils, it was recently shown that both elements may have a strong effect on carbon dioxide (CO2) production with Ca strongly dec...

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phe...

Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. I...

Fire is the dominant disturbance agent in Alaskan and Canadian boreal ecosystems and releases large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Burned area and carbon emissions have been increasing with climate change, which have the potential to alter the carbon balance and shift the region from a historic sink to a source. It is therefore critically i...

Warming of northern high latitude regions (NHL, > 50 °N) has increased both photosynthesis and respiration which results in considerable uncertainty regarding the net carbon dioxide (CO2) balance of NHL ecosystems. Using estimates constrained from atmospheric observations from 1980 to 2017, we find that the increasing trends of net CO2 uptake in th...

Permafrost thaw is drastically altering Arctic lands and creating hazardous conditions for its residents, who are being forced to make difficult and urgent decisions about where and how to live to protect themselves and their lifeways from the impacts of climate change. Permafrost thaw also poses a risk to global climate due to the large pool of or...

Northern high-latitude deltas are hotspots of biogeochemical processing, terrestrial-aquatic connectivity, and, in Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), tundra wildfire. Yet, wildfire effects on aquatic biogeochemistry remain understudied in northern delta regions, thus limiting a more comprehensive understanding of high latitude biogeochemical cyc...

Tundra environments are experiencing elevated levels of wildfire, and the frequency is expected to keep increasing due to accelerating climate change in the Arctic. Tundra wildfires can release globally significant amounts of greenhouse gasses that influence the Earth’s radiative balance. Here we develop a novel method for estimating carbon loss an...

As climate warms, tree density at the taiga–tundra ecotone (TTE) is expected to increase, which may intensify competition for belowground resources in this nitrogen (N)‐limited environment. To determine the impacts of increased tree density on N cycling and productivity, we examined edaphic properties indicative of soil N availability along with ab...

Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements such as amorphous silica, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminium, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic leading to thawing permafrost, which in turn is changing the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ec...

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are c...

Climate change is causing an intensification in tundra fires across the Arctic, including the unprecedented 2015 fires in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) Delta. The YK Delta contains extensive surface waters (∼33% cover) and significant quantities of organic carbon, much of which is stored in vulnerable permafrost. Inland aquatic ecosystems act as hot‐spo...

Foundation species have disproportionately large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. As a result, future changes to their distribution may be important determinants of ecosystem carbon (C) cycling in a warmer world. We assessed the role of a foundation tussock sedge ( Eriophorum vaginatum ) as a climatically vulnerable C stock using field...

The northern permafrost region holds almost half of the world's soil carbon in just 15% of global terrestrial surface area. Between 2007 and 2016, permafrost warmed by an average of 0.29°C, with observations indicating that frozen ground in the more southerly, discontinuous permafrost zone is already thawing. Despite this, our understanding of pote...

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time...

Rapid Arctic warming is causing permafrost to thaw and exposing large quantities of soil organic carbon (C) to potential decomposition. In dry upland tundra systems, subsidence from thawing permafrost can increase surface soil moisture resulting in higher methane (CH4) emissions from newly waterlogged soils. The proportion of C released as carbon d...

Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and f...

The Polaris Project, a National Science Foundation–funded program at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, aims to comprehensively address minority participation in climate and Arctic science research. Critical participant outcomes included development of interdisciplinary research projects, involvement in self-efficacy and advocacy experiences, an...

Carbon cycle perturbations in high-latitude ecosystems associated with rapid warming can have implications for the global climate. Belowground biomass is an important component of the carbon cycle in these ecosystems, with, on average, significantly more vegetation biomass belowground than aboveground. Large quantities of dead root biomass are also...

Soil respiration (i.e. from soils and roots) provides one of the largest global fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and is likely to increase with warming, yet the magnitude of soil respiration from rapidly thawing Arctic-boreal regions is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we first compiled a new CO2 flux database for...

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information, but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying tim...

Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The Paris Agreement provides...

Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and f...

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different...

Cajander larch ( Larix cajanderi Mayr.) forests of the Siberian Arctic are experiencing increased wildfire activity in conjunction with climate warming. These shifts could affect post-fire variation in the density and arrangement of trees and understory plant communities. To better understand how understory plant composition, abundance, and diversi...

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current und...

Rapid climate warming at northern high latitudes is driving geomorphic changes across the permafrost zone. In the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas in western Siberia, subterranean accumulation of methane beneath or within ice-rich permafrost can create mounds at the land surface. Once over-pressurized by methane, these mounds can explode and eject frozen...

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current und...

The contribution of soil heterotrophic respiration to the boreal–Arctic carbon (CO2) cycle and its potential feedback to climate change remains poorly quantified. We developed a remote-sensing-driven permafrost carbon model at intermediate scale (∼1 km) to investigate how environmental factors affect the magnitude and seasonality of soil heterotrop...

The magnitude of future emissions of greenhouse gases from the northern permafrost region depend crucially on the mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has accumulated over millennia in these perennially frozen soils. Many recent studies have used radiocarbon (14C) to quantify the release of this “old” SOC as CO2 or CH4 to the atmosphere...

The relative importance of global versus local environmental factors for growth and thus carbon uptake of the bryophyte genus Sphagnum— the main peat‐former and ecosystem engineer in northern peatlands—remains unclear. We measured length growth and net primary production (NPP) of two abundant Sphagnum species across 99 Holarctic peatlands. We teste...

The contribution of soil heterotrophic respiration to the boreal-Arctic carbon (CO2) cycle and its potential feedback to climate change remain poorly quantified. We developed a remote sensing driven permafrost carbon model at intermediate scale (~ 1 km) to investigate how environmental factors affect the magnitude and seasonality of soil heterotrop...

Permafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thaw...

Northern lakes are a source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and contribute substantially to the global carbon budget. However, the sources of methane (CH4) to northern lakes are poorly constrained limiting our ability to the assess impacts of future Arctic change. Here we present measurements of the natural groundwater tracer, radon, and CH4...

Alaska’s Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) is one of the warmest parts of the Arctic tundra biome and tundra fires are common in its upland areas. Here, we combine field measurements, Landsat observations, and quantitative cover maps for tundra plant functional types (PFTs) to characterize multi-decadal succession and landscape change after fire in liche...

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1,2,3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)⁴. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we sy...