Stewart Robinson

Stewart Robinson
Newcastle University | NCL · Newcastle University Business School

BSc Management Science, PhD Management Science

About

182
Publications
123,125
Reads
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6,344
Citations
Additional affiliations
August 2015 - December 2016
Loughborough University
Position
  • Dean, Professor of Management Science
September 1998 - June 2011
The University of Warwick
Position
  • Professor of Operational Research, Associate Dean

Publications

Publications (182)
Article
Full-text available
Little is known about models deemed ”wrong” by their modellers or clients in Operational Research (OR). This paper aims to improve our understanding of “wrong” Discrete Event Simulation (DES) models based on empirical evidence. We interview 22 modellers who describe projects where modelling did not go as expected and explain how they dealt with tho...
Article
Hybrid simulation has emerged as a popular method of modelling complex systems and addressing real-world problems. However, in the existing literature, there is no clear method for documenting the approach of a hybrid simulation study. We aim to address this problem by presenting a method for general representation of the modelling frame, i.e. the...
Article
The availability and use of tools to guide the choice of modelling technique are not well understood. Our study aims to review existing tools and explore the use of those tools in health economic models. Two reviews and one case study were conducted. Review 1 aimed to identify tools based on expert opinion and citation searching and explore the val...
Preprint
Full-text available
Patient flow analysis can be studied from a clinical and or operational perspective using simulation. Traditional statistical methods such as stochastic distribution methods have been used to construct patient flow simulation submodels such as patient inflow, Length of Stay (LoS), Cost of Treatment (CoT) and Clinical Pathway (CP) models. However, p...
Conference Paper
Patient flow analysis can be studied from a clinical and/or operational perspective using simulation. Traditional statistical methods such as stochastic distribution methods have been used to construct patient flow simulation sub-models such as patient inflow, Length of Stay (LoS), Cost of Treatment (CoT) and Clinical Pathway (CP) models. However,...
Article
Full-text available
Background Discrepancies between the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) schizophrenia guideline recommendations and current clinical practice in the UK have been reported. Aims We aim to assess whether it is cost-effective to improve adherence to the NICE schizophrenia guideline recommendations, compared with current practice...
Article
Full-text available
Background Numerous economic models have assessed the cost-effectiveness of antipsychotic medications in schizophrenia. It is important to understand what key impacts of antipsychotic medications were considered in the existing models and limitations of existing models in order to inform the development of future models. Objectives This systematic...
Article
With increasingly complex safety-critical systems like healthcare being developed and managed, there is a need for a tool that permits decision-makers to better understand the complexity, test various strategies and guide effective changes. System Dynamics (SD) modelling is an effective approach that can aid strategic decision-making in healthcare...
Article
Full-text available
Importance The existing economic models for schizophrenia often have 3 limitations; namely, they do not cover nonpharmacologic interventions, they report inconsistent conclusions for antipsychotics, and they have poor methodologic quality. Objectives To develop a whole-disease model for schizophrenia and use it to inform resource allocation decisi...
Article
Background Schizophrenia is associated with a high economic burden. Economic models can help to inform resource allocation decisions to maximise benefits to patients.Objectives This systematic review aims to assess the availability, quality and consistency of conclusions of health economic models evaluating the cost effectiveness of interventions f...
Article
Simple models are considered useful for decision making, especially when decisions are made by a group of stakeholders. This paper describes an experimental study that investigates whether the level of model detail affects users’ learning. Our subjects, undergraduate students, were asked to solve a resource utilisation task for an ambulance service...
Article
In recent years there has been a growth in specialised analytics Master’s degrees, in the UK and beyond. However, there has been little research into the contents of such degrees. In particular, the role disciplines such as operational research play within them remains an under-explored area. Using a mixed-methods approach, this article analyses UK...
Article
In 2007, the Journal of Simulation ran the first ever journal issue dedicated to conceptual modelling for discrete-event simulation. The editorial for that issue reported on a 2006 meeting of conceptual modelling researchers that identified a set of research themes. Just over 10 years later, this paper reviews the progress that has been made in con...
Article
We adopted a system dynamics approach to simulate dynamic factors affecting dispensing backlog and dispensing errors in a hospital pharmacy system. This approach allowed us to simulate diverse scenarios (hospital winter pressures and differing staffing arrangements) and to understand the potential unintended impact of rework due to dispensing error...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
p>It is arguably difficult to reproduce the results of published work in Modeling & Simulation (M&S). Authors have certainly raised concerns about this issue and attempts by journals and conferences are being made to improve the situation. As part of a movement to tackle reproducibility in M&S, the Strengthening The Reporting of Empirical Simulatio...
Article
Can language usage help determine which model approach is best suited to provide decision makers with desired insights? This research addresses that question through an investigation of Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC), which calculates the presence of >80 language dimensions in text samples, and permits construction of custom dictionaries....
Article
This study develops a standardised checklist approach to improve the reporting of discrete-event simulation, system dynamics and agent-based simulation models within the field of Operational Research and Management Science. Incomplete or ambiguous reporting means that many simulation studies are not reproducible, leaving other modellers with an inc...
Chapter
This paper is the first of its type in that it provides an empirical study comparing the two simulation approaches of discrete-event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD). Prior comparison work is limited and mostly based on the authors’ personal opinions. In the present work, the comparison is based on managers’ (executive MBA students) percep...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Maintaining a long-term partnership with a supplier has been considered as an effective strategy to achieve collaboration success in supply chain management. However, many companies find this approach does not improve their business performance. This paper develops an agent-based model to investigate the effect of duration of collaboration on suppl...
Article
Laboratory-based experimental studies with human participants are beneficial for testing hypotheses in behavioural operational research. However, such experiments are not without their problems. One specific problem is obtaining a sufficient sample size, not only in terms of the number of participants but also the time they are willing to devote to...
Article
Full-text available
There are many factors that may contribute to the successful delivery of a simulation project. To provide a structured approach to assessing the impact various factors have on project success, we propose a top-down framework whereby 15 Key Performance Indicators (KPI) are developed that represent the level of successfulness of simulation projects f...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Collaboration is considered to be a key driver to supply chain success. However, the ideal collaboration practice is difficult to achieve. Firms' strategy and behaviour in supply chain collaborations are identified as the main reasons for supply chain failure. To study this problem, we use an agent-based model which represents two-stage supply chai...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
signified by a greater intensity of research and volume of papers on the topic. What is becoming apparent, however, is that when it comes to conceptual modeling there are quite different views and opinions. These differences may be beneficial for creating a debate that takes the field forward, but they can also lead to confusion. The purpose of thi...
Article
It is often claimed that discrete-event simulation (DES) models are useful for generating insights. There is, however, almost no empirical evidence to support this claim. To address this issue we perform an experimental study which investigates the role of DES, specifically the simulation animation and statistical results, in generating insight (an...
Article
Full-text available
It is often stated that involving the client in operational research studies increases conceptual learning about a system which can then be applied repeatedly to other, similar, systems. Our study provides a novel measurement approach for Behavioural OR studies that aim to analyse the impact of modelling in long term problem solving and decision ma...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
The Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling & Simulation Coordination Office (M&SCO) in collaboration with the Personnel & Readiness (P&R)/Force Readiness & Training (FR&T) Directorate/Joint Assessment and Enabling Capability (JAEC) Office sponsored the initial work on a Defense Handbook on Conceptual Modeling for Models and Simulation Systems. The ob...
Article
Full-text available
Conceptual Modeling (CM) has gained a lot of interest in the recent years and it is widely agreed that CM is the most important phase of simulation study. Despite its significance, there are very few techniques that can help to develop well-structured and concise conceptual models. This paper proposes the use of the Structured Analysis and Design T...
Article
Full-text available
The generation of insight from simulation models has received little attention in the discrete-event simulation (DES) literature. Often DES studies claim to have supported problem understanding and problem solving by creating new and effective ideas, however little empirical evidence exists to support these statements. This paper presents the desig...
Article
Full-text available
The growing attention and prominence afforded to analytics presents a genuine challenge for the operational research community. Many in the community have recognised this growth and sought to align themselves with analytics. For instance, the US operational research society INFORMS now offers analytics related conferences, certification and a magaz...
Article
Discrete-event simulation (DES), which has largely grown out of modelling manufacturing systems, has increasingly been applied in the service sector. The approach, however, is not always appropriate for modelling service operations. In particular, it cannot help with detailed decisions about the layout of service operations in which the customers a...
Book
https://www.macmillanihe.com/page/detail/?SF1=barcode&ST1=9781137328021
Article
Both system dynamics (SD) and discrete-event simulation (DES) are used to help understand and explain puzzling real world dynamics. But what are the similarities and differences between these two approaches and which should be used in a specific circumstance? These are questions few have ventured to answer. In this research the two approaches are c...
Article
Discrete-event simulation (DES) grew largely out of a desire to model manufacturing systems. DES has been applied to a much broader set of applications including health, service industries, transportation, warehousing, supply chains, defence, computer systems and business process management. Much of this work has focused on improving the design and...
Article
Is it possible for discrete-event simulation to be used in a facilitated workshop environment? Over the last decade there have been various attempts to use simulation in this way, but we argue here that none have been successful in achieving a fully facilitated mode where the model is both developed and used in the workshop. We attempt to use a dis...
Article
It is often stated that health simulation is quite different and even that it is more difficult than in other sectors. But is simulation in health really different to simulation elsewhere? In this paper we explore this question through a survey of simulation modellers and academics. We elicit their opinions across a range of factors concerning the...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
It is often said that a discrete-event simulation model supports people in understanding and problem-solving by creating new and effective solutions, but little empirical evidence exists to substantiate this claim. While the discrete event community has not well-developed this philosophy of practice, empirical evidence from the system dynamics fiel...
Article
Full-text available
The work reported in this paper is part of a project simulating maintenance operations in an automotive engine production facility. The decisions made by the people in charge of these operations form a crucial element of this simulation. Eliciting this knowledge is problematic. One approach is to use the simulation model as part of the knowledge el...
Article
Full-text available
Conceptual modelling (CM) helps to determine the objectives, scope and content of a simulation model. It is widely agreed that CM is the most important phase in any simulation study. Despite its significance, it has only recently been recognized in the area of Modelling and Simulation (M&S). In Computer Science (CS), CM is also a pre-development ph...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
This article presents an analysis derived from empirical data collected during a study on the differences in System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete-event Simulation (DES) model building. The language usage of 10 expert modellers (5 SD and 5 DES), who provided a narrative of their actions while building prison simulation models, formed the study's basis....
Conference Paper
Full-text available
An increase in media and business attention has raised the visibility of Operations Research and “Analytics.” In 2012, INFORMS announced its Certified Analytics Professional (CAP) program to provide practitioners a standardized qualification in the field. Are we doing an adequate job of preparing our students to be analytics professionals in simula...
Article
Discussion of learning from discrete-event simulation often takes the form of a hypothesis stating that involving clients in model building provides much of the learning necessary to aid their decisions. Whilst practitioners of simulation may intuitively agree with this hypothesis they are simultaneously motivated to reduce the model building effor...
Article
Full-text available
This work proposes the creation of a holistic and transdisciplinary process model view, named Process Science & Technology, for the unification and integration of concepts and techniques originated in various disciplines that deal with complex discrete event processes descriptions. Building upon this unified model view, the work draws some guidelin...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Conceptual modeling is the abstraction of a simulation model from the real world system that is being modeled; in other words, choosing what to model, and what not to model. This is generally agreed to be the most difficult, least understood and most important task to be carried out in a simulation study. We present two example problems that illust...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this tutorial three experienced instructors describe how they teach an advanced simulation topic: Poisson processes (Henderson), variance reduction (Jacobson), and verification and validation (Robinson).
Article
Full-text available
Since much knowledge is tacit, eliciting knowledge is a common bottleneck during the development of knowledge-based systems. Visual interactive simulation (VIS) has been proposed as a means for eliciting experts’ decision-making by getting them to interact with a visual simulation of the real system in which they work. In order to explore the effec...
Article
Discrete-event simulation (DES) and lean are approaches that have a similar motivation: improvement of processes and service delivery. Both are being used to help improve the delivery of healthcare, but rarely are they used together. This paper explores from a theoretical and an empirical perspective the potential complementary roles of DES and lea...
Article
Full-text available
Discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) are two modelling approaches widely used as decision support tools in logistics and supply chain management (LSCM). A widely held belief exists that SD is mostly used to model problems at a strategic level, whereas DES is used at an operational/tactical level. This paper explores the applicat...
Article
Conceptual modelling is the abstraction of a simulation model from the real world system that is being modelled; in other words, choosing what to model, and what not to model. This is generally agreed to be the most difficult, least understood and most important task to be carried out in a simulation study. With reference to an example problem, we...
Article
Full-text available
It is often stated that health simulation is quite different and even that it is more difficult. But, is simulation in health really different to simulation in other sectors? In this paper we explore this question through a survey of simulation modellers and academics. We elicit their opinions across a range of factors concerning the difficulties o...
Article
Full-text available
Starting a model from an unrealistic state can lead to initialization bias in the simulation output. This, in turn, can produce bias in the results and lead to incorrect conclusions. One method for dealing with this problem is to run the model for a warm-up period until steady state is reached and remove the initialization bias by deleting the data...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In performing a simulation study the modeler needs to make decisions about what to include in the simulation model and what to exclude. The modeler is faced with the very difficult choice of determining what is the best model to develop. Make it too complex and it may not be possible to complete the model with the time and knowledge available. Make...
Article
Full-text available
There are two key issues in assuring the accuracy of estimates of performance obtained from a simulation model. The first is the removal of any initialisation bias; the second is ensuring that enough output data are produced to obtain an accurate estimate of performance. Our aim is to produce an automated procedure for inclusion into commercial sim...
Chapter
This article describes the problem of the initial transient that arises when estimating the limiting distribution of a nonterminating stochastic process. Concepts are explored with references to simple M/M/1 queueing model with an artificially induced initial bias. A range of solution methods have been proposed and here we explore two such approach...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
To provide a broader education for Operational Research PhD students in the UK, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council funds the National Taught Course Centre for Operational Research (NATCOR). This is an initiative led by six UK universities and includes a one-week, residential simulation module taught for the first time in July 20...