Steven D Gaines

University of California, Santa Barbara | UCSB · Bren School of Environmental Science and Management

There have been few documented extinctions of fished species, but many bioeconomic models predict that open‐access incentives make extinction possible. Open‐access multi‐species fisheries can cause species' extinction if other, faster‐growing species maintain profits at fatal effort levels. Even target species can be profitably harvested to extinct...

Aquatic food security is closely interconnected with multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs). Although assessing aquatic food security relies on understanding global trends in per capita production and consumption, there has been no comprehensive index to evaluate these trends in a country or regional context. Here, we develop a novel framewo...

The global population consumes more seafood from aquaculture today than from capture fisheries and although the aquaculture industry continues to grow, both seafood sectors will continue to be important to the global food supply into the future. As farming continues to expand into ocean systems, understanding how wild populations and fisheries will...

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for...

Globalization of fishery products is playing a significant role in shaping the harvesting and use of aquatic foods, but a vigorous debate has focused on whether the trade is a driver of the inequitable distribution of aquatic foods. Here, we develop species-level mass balance and trophic level identification datasets for 174 countries and territori...

Offshore renewable energy, particularly wind farms, is rapidly expanding globally and has become an essential component of many coastal nations' decarbonization plans, including the United States. The addition of these physical structures to the marine space may impact fish production and may preclude fishers from traditional fishing grounds-both o...

Over 2 billion people are unable to access safe, nutritious and sufficient food year-round. While global fisheries are considered key in providing essential nutrients to hundreds of millions of people around the globe, the specific contribution of small-scale fisheries to the nutrient supply given other available food supplies is unknown. Here, we...

Globalization of fishery products is playing a significant role in shaping the harvesting and use of aquatic foods, but the vigorous debate has focused on whether the trade is a driver of the inequitable distribution of aquatic foods. Here, we develop species-level mass balance and trophic level identification datasets for 174 countries and territo...

Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and r...

Small island nations are highly dependent on food from aquatic environments, or blue food, and vulnerable to climate change and global food market price volatility. By 2050, rising populations will demand more food through various protein sources, including from the sea. This study identifies which small island nations can improve food self-suffici...

Over 2 billion people are unable to access safe, nutritious and sufficient food year-round. While global fisheries are considered key in providing essential nutrients to hundreds of millions of people around the globe, the specific contribution of small-scale fisheries to the nutrient supply given other available food supplies is unknown. Here, we...

Climate change is altering the productivity of marine fisheries and challenging the effectiveness of historical fisheries management. Harvest control rules, which describe the process for determining catch limits in fisheries, represent one pathway for promoting climate resilience. In the USA, flexibility in how regional management councils specify...

Ecological interactions are not uniform across time and can vary with environmental conditions. Yet, interactions among species are often measured with short-term controlled experiments whose outcomes can depend greatly on the particular environmental conditions under which they are performed. As an alternative, we use empirical dynamic modeling to...

Climate change is altering the productivity of marine fisheries and challenging the effectiveness of historical fisheries management. Harvest control rules, which describe the process for determining catch limits in fisheries, represent one pathway for promoting climate resilience. In the United States, flexibility in how regional management counci...

As the human population and demand for food grow¹, the ocean will be called on to provide increasing amounts of seafood. Although fisheries reforms and advances in offshore aquaculture (hereafter ‘mariculture’) could increase production², the true future of seafood depends on human responses to climate change³. Here we investigated whether coordina...

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a key tool for achieving goals for biodiversity conservation and human well-being, including improving climate resilience and equitable access to nature. At a national level, they are central components in the U.S. commitment to conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. By definition, the primary goal of an MPA...

Aim Marine biodiversity is increasingly threatened by overfishing and climate change, but it is still unclear how these drivers have shaped the functional diversity (FD) of marine fish. Here, we explore how the FD of commercial marine fish communities responds to climate change and fishing pressure. Major taxa studied Marine fish. Location China...

Moored fish aggregating devices (MFADs) are promoted in small-scale fisheries around the world as tools to increase fisher incomes, enhance food security, and ease pressure on degraded inshore fisheries. Despite their growing popularity, the biophysical and socioeconomic contexts in which MFAD fisheries are implemented - and the implications of the...

Developed democracies proliferated over the past two centuries during an unprecedented era of economic growth, which may be ending. Macroeconomic forecasts predict slowing growth throughout the twenty-first century for structural reasons such as ageing populations, shifts from goods to services, slowing innovation, and debt. Long-run effects of COV...

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is to manage incompatible functional use for achieving spatial homogeneity in sea. However most MSP strategies focus on single-target sea use demand ignoring multiple-conflicts of different demands. Thus, this study develops a spatial management model and quantitatively recognizes two types of spatial conflicts among e...

Totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) is a large species of croaker, endemic to the upper Gulf of California in Mexico, which has been under extreme poaching pressure due to its highly valuable swim bladder, or buche. For more than 20 years, totoaba aquaculture has been developing as one, among many, conservation strategies in the ongoing management of the...

Seaweed aquaculture is capable of removing large quantities of nitrogen and phosphorus from coastal ecosystems, yet seaweed has gained little traction for its potential role in targeted nutrient assimilation. Marine nutrient pollution is increasing around the world, contributing to expanding eutrophic conditions and co-occurring with other stressor...

Interdisciplinary research and teaching is intellectually rewarding and practically challenging for the same reason: integrating disciplinary perspectives and methods requires all involved to study and communicate beyond the bounds of their expertise. Project facilitators may offer crucial support in such situations, anticipating needs before strug...

Marine protected areas (MPAs) cover 3–7% of the world's ocean, and international organizations call for 30% coverage by 2030. Although numerous studies show that MPAs produce conservation benefits inside their borders, many MPAs are also justified on the grounds that they confer conservation benefits to the connected populations that span beyond th...

Interdisciplinary projects can be surprisingly challenging for experienced academic collaborators socially, intellectually, and practically. Within disciplines, common sets of philosophical assumptions, practical knowledge-bases, and professional goals can help groups to wrestle though interpersonal differences in attitudes, ideas, priorities and w...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03496-1.

Herbivorous fish can increase coral growth and survival by grazing down algal competitors. With coral reefs in global decline, maintaining adequate herbivory has become a primary goal for many managers. However, herbivore biomass targets assume grazing behavior is consistent across different reef systems, even though relatively few have been studie...

The ocean contains unique biodiversity, provides valuable food resources and is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are an effective tool for restoring ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services1,2, but at present only 2.7% of the ocean is highly protected³. This low level of ocean protection is due largely to confli...

Understanding the dynamics of species range edges in the modern era is key to addressing fundamental biogeographic questions about abiotic and biotic drivers of species distributions. Range edges are where colonization and extirpation processes unfold, and so these dynamics are also important to understand for effective natural resource management...

Economic growth in the 19th and 20th centuries, following the Industrial Revolutions, was much faster than in preceding centuries. This unprecedented global growth coincided with the global proliferation of democracy, with some evidence for bidirectional causation. Macroeconomic forecasts have predicted slower economic growth in the 21st century--p...

Contrary to most terrestrial organisms, which release their carbon into the atmosphere after death, carcasses of large marine fish sink and sequester carbon in the deep ocean. Yet, fisheries have extracted a massive amount of this “blue carbon,” contributing to additional atmospheric CO 2 emissions. Here, we used historical catches and fuel consump...

Significance Strategically siting marine protected areas (MPAs) in overfished fisheries can have important conservation and food provisioning benefits. We use distribution data for 1,338 commercially important fisheries stocks around the world to model how MPAs in different locations would affect catch. We show that strategically expanding the exis...

The ability to properly identify species present in a landscape is foundational to ecology and essential for natural resource management and conservation. However, many species are often unaccounted for due to ineffective direct capture and visual surveys, especially in aquatic environments. Environmental DNA metabarcoding is an approach that overc...

In defining cultural ecosystem services as the recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual benefits people obtain from ecosystems, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment conveyed a key aspect of nature-society relationships. Yet, it is reasonable to suppose that this aspect may apply more to to contexts where people enjoy more leisure time to admire a scen...

Moored fish aggregating devices (MFADs) are promoted throughout global small-scale fisheries as tools to enhance livelihoods and shift fishing pressure onto offshore resources. A particularly large number of projects initiating and encouraging MFAD development have occurred in the Caribbean region. Despite ongoing promotion of MFAD fisheries in the...

A growing body of literature has documented myriad effects of human activities on animal behaviour, yet the ultimate ecological consequences of these behavioural shifts remain largely uninvestigated. While it is understood that, in the absence of humans, variation in animal behaviour can have cascading effects on species interactions, community str...

Abstract The relative roles of top‐down (consumer‐driven) and bottom‐up (resource‐driven) forcing in exploited marine ecosystems have been much debated. Examples from a variety of marine systems of exploitation‐induced, top‐down trophic forcing have led to a general view that human‐induced predator perturbations can disrupt entire marine food webs,...

Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1)...

Ecosystems are changing at alarming rates because of climate change and a wide variety of other anthropogenic stressors. These stressors have the potential to cause phase shifts to less productive ecosystems. A major challenge for ecologists is to identify ecosystem attributes that enhance resilience and can buffer systems from shifts to less desir...

Models of human dimensions of fisheries are important to understanding and predicting how fishing industries respond to changes in marine ecosystems and management institutions. Advances in computation have made it possible to construct agent‐based models (ABMs)—which explicitly describe the behaviour of individual people, firms or vessels in order...

Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate‐related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observat...

Territorial use rights in fisheries (TURFs) are coastal territories assigned to fishermen for the exclusive extraction of marine resources. Recent evidence shows that the incentives that arise from these systems can improve fisheries sustainability. Although research on TURFs has increased in recent years, important questions regarding the social a...

Thousands of species worldwide are threatened with extinction due to human activities. For some animals, such as elephants, totoaba, and bluefin tuna, population declines are largely driven by hunting. High prices and large profits create a strong incentive for illegal hunting, even in the face of penalties and strict international restrictions aga...

Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1)...

Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are man...

Twenty years ago, the creation of a new scientific program, the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO), funded by the Packard Foundation, provided the opportunity to integrate—from the outset— research, monitoring, and outreach to the public, policymakers, and managers. PISCO’s outreach efforts were initially focused pr...

To support conservation practices, societal demand for understanding fundamental coastal ocean ecosystem mechanisms has grown in recent decades. Globally, these regions are among the world’s most productive, but they are highly vulnerable to extractive and non-extractive stresses. In 1999, we established the Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studie...

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important tools for managing marine ecosystems. MPAs are expected to replenish nearby exploited populations through the natural dispersal of young, but the models that make these predictions rely on assumptions that have recently been demonstrated to be incorrect for most species of fish. A meta‐analysis showed tha...

Narratives help frame our thinking and action. On the eve of World Oceans Day and in anticipation of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), a new narrative for the ocean is warranted—one that reflects current scientific knowledge and inspires new science and effective action.

The growth of marine aquaculture over the 21st century is a promising venture for food security because of its potential to fulfill the seafood deficit in the future. However, to maximize the use of marine space and its resources, the spatial planning of marine aquaculture needs to consider the regimes of climate variability in the oceanic environm...

Many anthropogenic stressors broadly inflict mortality or reduce fecundity, including habitat destruction, pollution, climate change, invasive species, and multispecies harvesting. Here, we show-in four analytical models of interspecies competition-that broadly inflicted stressors disproportionately cause competitive exclusions within groups of eco...

Food security remains a principal challenge in the developing tropics where communities rely heavily on marine-based protein. While some improvements in fisheries management have been made in these regions, a large fraction of coastal fisheries remain unmanaged, mismanaged, or use only crude input controls. These quasi-open-access conditions often...

Conservation aims to preserve species and ecosystem services. If rare species contribute little to ecosystem services, yet are those most in need of preservation, tradeoffs may exist for these contrasting objectives. However, little attention has focused on identifying how, when, and where rare species contribute to ecosystem services and at what s...

The ecological management effectiveness (EME) of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is the degree to which MPAs reach their ecological goals. The significant variability of EME among MPAs has been partly explained by MPA design, management and implementation features (e.g. surface area, enforcement, age of protection). We investigated EME variability by...