Steve Powell

• psychology
• Director at Causal Map Ltd

This article presents an artificial intelligence-assisted causal mapping pipeline for gathering and analysing stakeholder perspectives at scale. Evidence relevant to constructing a programme theory, as well as evidence for the causal influences flowing through it, are both collected at the same time, without the evaluator needing to possess a prior...

Evaluators are interested in capturing how things causally influence one another. They are also interested in capturing how stakeholders think things causally influence one another. Causal mapping – the collection, coding and visualisation of interconnected causal claims – has been used widely for several decades across many disciplines for this pu...

p> Evaluators are interested in capturing how things causally influence one another. They are also interested in capturing how stakeholders think things causally influence one another. Causal mapping, the collection, coding and visualisation of interconnected causal claims, has been used widely for several decades across many disciplines for this...

p> Evaluators are interested in capturing how things causally influence one another. They are also interested in capturing how stakeholders think things causally influence one another. Causal mapping, the collection, coding and visualisation of interconnected causal claims, has been used widely for several decades across many disciplines for this...

What do the intended beneficiaries of international development programmes think about the causal drivers of change in their livelihoods and lives? Do their perceptions match up with the theories of change constructed by organizations trying to support them? This case study looks at an entrepreneurship programme aiming to economically empower rural...

This guide aims to clarify the theory and practice of causal mapping, and describe some software for the task. A causal map (or network) is a graph of the causal relationships between a set of items (for example, variables or propositions), with or without precise numerical values. Causal mapping is the task, common in social science, of assembling...

Additional notes on the definition of “Theory” as presented on page 39 in Powell, S. (2019).Theories of change: Making value explicit. Journal of MultiDisciplinary Evaluation, 15(32), 37-52

Background: This article addresses two problems. The first is the Flexibility Problem: If we are to use a more flexible format for theories of change than for traditional logic models, one in which we can no longer assume that we only value things which are at the end of causal chains, nor that we intervene on all the things at the beginning of cau...

Background Research on the long-term mental health consequences of war and displacement among civilians who live in post-conflict countries is rare. The aim of this study was to examine the developmental trajectories and predictors of general psychological distress in three samples of Bosnian war survivors over an 11-year period. Methods In 1998/9...

Accepted at JMDE. This version is pre copy-editing. One advantage of traditional logic models, in which the variables are ordered into a neat system of layers ("inputs", "outputs" etc) in a strict hierarchical format is that it is easy to see which variables are under "our" control (namely, all those with no "parents") and which variables are val...

This is a review of “The Book of Why”, (Pearl & Mackenzie, 2018), the first book for a general readership by Turing Prize winner Judea Pearl, one of the parents both of Artificial Intelligence and of the “Causal Revolution” in statistics. The present review is more extensive than most book reviews because of the fundamental significance of th...

This is a review of "The Book of Why", the first book for a general readership by Turing-Prize winner Judea Pearl, one of the parents both of Artificial Intelligence and of the "Causal Revolution" in statistics.

Where in the world did people receive help from National Societies in 2016? That kind of question can be answered using the FDRS – The Federation-wide Databank and Reporting System. The FDRS collects data from National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (National Societies) across the world about what they are doing and with what resources. Natio...

Arrows in Theories of Change, Logical Frameworks and Logic Models are supposed to show causal influences. But often they are (mis-)used to show definitional connections as well, e.g. when one variable summarises others. This article explores the problem and suggests a solution.

The purpose of this report is to capture, in one synthesis document, knowledge gained during and since the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Ebola response: What does the IFRC need to learn to repeat successes or avoid repeating the same mistakes in the face of a threat like Ebola in West Africa?

International Early Warning agencies didn’t invent warnings of future risks. People have been giving and responding to warnings, well or badly, for millennia. But do we know how people in East Africa do it? If we want to improve Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) better, we need to understand this. In particular, how do people exposed to risks inte...

Executive summary Evaluation overview 1. This evaluation covers the second phase of the Tunza UNEP Strategy, part of the “Tunza Programme”. The second phase was developed in 2008 and ran from 2009 to 2014. The Objective of the Strategy was to increase the participation of young people in environmental issues and the Vision was to Foster a generatio...

A Data Management Space is usually just a folder on a computer, organised in a particular way with some key sub-folders and two key files (the Variable List and the Research Matrix) which describe how the M&E system works; plus of course the practice of actually running your M&E as described in those files.

Objective: In this trial, we compared the relative efficacy of dialogical exposure group treatment using Gestalt empty-chair method with a supportive group in the treatment of symptoms stemming from traumatic loss in a post-war society. Methods: One-hundred and nineteen women whose husbands were either killed or registered as missing during the...

This report presents the results of a survey of the alumni of the African Institute of Mathematical Sciences. Altogether 271 (60%) alumni responded to an invitation to fill in an online survey. Although the overall response rate is good, and all graduation years are reasonably well represented, alumni who graduated longer ago are under-represented...

This East Africa Resilience Logframe Template is suggested as a way to unify and make more concrete the ideas in the FCR. Specifically, the template provides a framework for organizing the kinds of indicators suggested in the FCR appendix ; each such indicator can be allocated a place in the template according to the: 1. Type of hazard (in particu...

Abstract: Pro-social behavior, one of the defining characteristics of humans as social beings, plays a vital role in maintaining social bonds and in making social transactions possible. The questions which drive this study are whether there is any association between pro-social behavior or social capital online and offline, and whether we can see d...

Dataset survey methods document and report. There is a dataset in R format plus an SPSS .sav file and an accompanying .sps syntax codefile. Running the syntax file on the .sav file should provide labels etc for the .sav file. http://figshare.com/articles/Data_and_description_from_project_School_Governance_and_Social_Inclusion_Involvement_of_Parent...

Evaluation of CBHFA contribution to Cholera Emergency Health response in Sierra Leone Steve Powell (consultant - steve@promente.org). 31 Jan 2013. Report commissioned by The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Executive Summary Motivation for the study Millions have been spent on cholera prevention and response in Si...

This document was written following the April 2012 Haiti Learning Conference. At the conference, Red Cross Red Crescent practitioners produced many ideas and opinions on what we are learning from Haiti and how we have been learning. The Learning Strategy set out in this document is a suggestion written by a consultant based on those ideas and opini...

In the middle of the 1992-5 war, Willi Butollo visited Bosnia & Herzegovina (B&H) in the effort to support local psychotherapists and counsellors who were working there. This was the beginning of a relationship between Willi's Lehrstuhl in Munich and the various Departments of Psychology in former Yugoslavia, a relationship which blossomed for the...

proMENTE was recruited by the office of Dogs Trust in Sarajevo to carry out a project with two objectives. Firstly, a methodology was built and implemented by proMENTE to estimate the total number of roaming dogs in the city of Sarajevo. Secondly, a survey was designed to gain insight into the attitudes of the population in the city towards roaming...

We (the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, IFRC) were entrusted with 1.2 B CHF to spend wisely and in the best interests of the beneficiaries. Did we? The IFRC is committed to accountability and learning. Alongside our usual evaluation activities, we have launched the Haiti Evaluation Framework. This will integrate an...

This new volume draws lessons from how evaluation studies and evaluation systems forward the agendas of sustainable development and good governance by opening up decision-making processes to stakeholders, supporting evidence-based, coherent and transparent decision making, integrating concerns of the three domains of sustainable development into de...

Baseline study was conducted within the programme "Women, Peace-building and Reconciliation in BiH". Main aims of the study were to determine current level of awareness, knowledge and attitudes in 15 selected communities in BiH on women peacemakers and their role in reconciliation process. Study was conducted in period July/September 2011.

The main objective of this project is to influence the process of resolving and transforming conflict between young people in and within 10 ethnically mixed communities in B&H. The specific objective of this project is to increase youth participation in processes of local development in rural areas through grant funds projects initiated and led by...

Design and implementation of 10-year follow-up of epidemiological research on the psychosocial consequences of war in B&H; identifying and re-interviewing respondents from 1998/9; with special focus on post-traumatic growth, complicated grief and PTSD. The very demanding fieldwork involved re-contacting and interviewing 300 persons (two thirds of w...

a) The research carried out Eight different samples of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina were assessed in 1998 and 1999, two tofour years after the end of the 1992-5 war, covering a wide range of variables including traumatic and stressful experiences and various measures of psychosocial adaptation including PTSD. b) Main results and conclusion Th...

Many people go missing during war and acts of terrorism. Do their families suffer an additional or different kind of mental health burden than families of people who are known to have been killed? Two groups of respondents, each comprising 56 women living in Bosnia and Herzegovina, were included in the study. These were women whose husbands were ei...

Short version of promente.org/UNV2-long.pdf

In the mixed effects regression for all 10 countries in the ESP2 project, while school mean of "parents believing their representatives are effective" was significantly positively related to their overall satisfaction with education, this effect was dwarfed by the contribution of this variable at individual level, even when allowing for a host of o...

Sets out the sampling design and fieldwork methodology for the 10 country study ESP2 of over 11000 parents

This report combines and reanalyses data from about 1 eight different surveys involving 9704 adults carried out for the American Red Cross and the four HNSs in Sri Lanka, the Maldives, India and NAD, Indonesia between 2007 and 2009 It is parallel to the main narrative “meta-evaluation” [7] of ARC Psychosocial programming in the Tsunami Recovery Prog...

Developing monitoring system for regional and state-level anti-trafficking activities

Overall, the Handbook itself can be considered a resounding success, with enthusiastic reception from all sides. In a wide-ranging survey of around 440 B&H firms who had received the Handbook, the respondents were between "satisfied"and "totally satisfied" with every aspect of the Handbook. The only complaint, revealed in interviews with key stakeh...

Ovaj izvjev staj je produkt kvalitativnog istrav zivanja realiziranog u okviru "Projekta zapov sljavanja mladih u BiH". Istrav zivanje pruv za uvid u poglede i stavove uv cenika koji se nalaze u procesu tranzicije iz v skole na posao i poslodavaca koji imaju iskustva oko zapov sljavanja osoba koje su tek izav sle iz procesa formalnog obrazovanja, k...

Regional report of student and teacher surveys and focus groups carried out in B&H as well as Estonia, Kazakhstan, Kosova, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Tajikistan; concludes that ethnically segrated school systems reflect and maintain the relations between majority and minority groups in the societies; and that minority students and teachers are t...

This document is the report of the results of qualitative research implemented within YEP Project under the title Youth employment in B&H. The research provides insights into the views and attitudes of students who are in the process of the school-to-work transition, and of employers who have some experience of recruiting school-leavers. In both ca...

Anketna istrav zivanja u BiH o efektima podjeljenog obrazovanja. Izvjev staj zakljuv cuje da nastavnici i djeca manjinskih etniv ckih grupa smatraju da bi dov slo do gubitka njihovog kulturalnog identiteta kada bi radili i poha?ali v skole koje rado po nastavnom planu i programu ve'cinske nacionalne grupe. Manjinske nacionalne grupe su za ovo istra...

Main statistical and narrative regional report from the eight-country survey of school Prinicpals in project ESP1. Principals say parental involvement improves both educational attainment of pupils and the overall school atmosphere. However, parents are involved in a narrow range of ways, and schools could do more to improve home-school communicati...

Designing and conducting research; producing an assessment report which includes recommendations for further action by the state authorities in charge of coordinating anti-trafficking efforts

The results for Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) of a survey on 237 elementary school principals' attitudes towards and views on parental participation in schools. Forms of participation in BiH schools do not extend to parental influence over education or the running of the school but does include organisation of events, renovating buildings etc. Many...

Focus groups, interviews and Most Significant Changes methods were used to answer the evaluation questions: 1. To what extent has the project made an impact to multiethnic interaction and ethnic tolerance among youth from different ethnicities in Bujanovac (Roma, Albanian, Serbian)? 2. To what extent and how was the local community and each of list...

Literature review on stakeholder participation in schools aimed at providing a background to initiative entitled "Advancing Educational Inclusion and Quality in South East Europe". Findings show that influence of socio-economic status on child's achievement in school is mediated with home-school relationship. Improving parental involvement is a ver...

The research which is the subject of the present report was conducted in 2006 for SEEYN by proMENTE social research and SEEYN in South-East Europe. The aim was to increase the knowledge base of the non-profit sector in the field of voluntary service in SEE, based on theoretical background and with concrete practical examples

The review is based on a categorisation and analysis of existing documents related to the impact of youth voluntary service in Europe. The most important conclusion overall can be summed up as follows: you get the impact you program for. This means that voluntary service regularly produces those kinds of impact for which voluntary service due to it...

Opsev zna analiza sadrv zaja svih 146 udv zbenika iz tzv. nacionalne skupine predmeta (maternji jezik, geografija i povijest) i religijskog obrazovanja. Udv zbenici su preporuv ceni za upotrebu od strane ministarstava obrazovanja u BiH. Analiza provedena od strane v cetiri tima od po 4-6 struv cnjaka po predmetu pomo'cu softvera za analizu sadrv za...

Sarajevo 2000: the psychosocial consequences of war, Results of empirical research from the territory of former Yugoslavia, Presentations from a Symposium held at the Faculty of Philosophy in Sarajevo, July 7 and 8, 2000. Editors: Steve Powell Elvira Durakovic-Belko www.psih.org (1.5 MB pdf file) Contents Forewords 9 About this book 11 Introduction...

Main results of an extensive content analysis of all 146 textbooks of religious education and the so-called national group of subjects (mother language, geography and history) textbooks recommended for use by the Education Ministries in B&H. Concludes that each textbook is oriented exclusively around one particular ethnic group and so the textbooks...

Main results of an extensive content analysis of all 146 textbooks of religious education and the so-called national group of subjects (mother language, geography and history) textbooks recommended for use by the Education Ministries in B&H. Concludes that each textbook is oriented exclusively around one particular ethnic group and so the textbooks...

The aim of the present study was to assess the internal consistency and discriminant and convergent validity of the Bosnian version of a self-report measure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the Posttraumatic Stress Diagnostic Scale (PTDS). The PTDS yields both a PTSD diagnosis according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Dis...

Results of extensive fieldwork in five countries, concluding that the role of SEEYN can be provocatively summarised as training (future) bridge-builders, where both member organisations and individual volunteers can be seen as bridge-builders. The most remarkable result of SEEYN is in the unique achievement of creating the strongest independent you...

Consultants on research design; Statistical analysis; Ad-hoc field surveys; Focus groups; Key Sources Interviews; Literature review. Focus on Roma and trafficked children

The goals of this study were to estimate the lifetime prevalence of traumatic events, the current prevalence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), and the connection between the kinds of traumatic events experienced and the probability of developing PTSD in three study samples in Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, three years after the end of the war...

Research carried out with survivors of a variety of different traumata indicates that a large proportion of them perceive positive changes in themselves after the trauma. This study investigated whether posttraumatic growth also could be found among people who had been exposed to particularly severe traumata over a period of several years (1991 to...