Stéphane Hallegatte

Stéphane Hallegatte
World Bank · Sustainable Development Network

About

355
Publications
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21,200
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Publications

Publications (355)
Article
Full-text available
This paper investigates the land value creation potential from flood mitigation investments in a theoretical and applied setting, using the urban area of Buenos Aires as a case study. It contributes to the literature on the wider economic benefits of government interventions and the dividends of resilience investments. Using a simple urban economic...
Preprint
Full-text available
As countries urbanize, human settlements are rapidly expanding into hazardous flood zones. This study provides a global analysis of spatial urbanization patterns and the evolution of flood exposure between 1985 and 2015. Using high-resolution annual data, it shows that settlements across the world grew by 85 percent to over 1.28 million square kilo...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ensuring a more equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide is an effective strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic and support global economic recovery. Here, we analyze the socioeconomic effects - defined as health gains, lockdown-easing benefit, and supply-chain rebuilding benefit - of a set of idealized vaccine distribution scenarios, by cou...
Article
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As development and adaptation are closely intertwined, assessing the benefits of adaptation by focusing only on how it reduces climate impacts could lead to misleading policy advice. In some cases, trying to minimize climate impacts could lead to inferior outcomes. It is preferable to explore how policies influence the absolute level of metrics of...
Article
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Building resilience against shocks has become a pillar of sustainability. By understanding how the different components of an economy interact in times of crisis, we can design resilience strategies that go beyond building walls or dams. We formulate an original agent-based model to explore a crucial pathway through which a disaster affects the eco...
Article
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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a massive economic shock across the world due to business interruptions and shutdowns from social-distancing measures. To evaluate the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 on individuals, a micro-economic model is developed to estimate the direct impact of distancing on household income, savings, consumption, and pover...
Article
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Some actions intended to adapt to climate change may do more harm than good, especially when they consume energy, making it more difficult to shift to decarbonized energy, or when, in meeting the needs of one group of people, they increase the vulnerability of others. Heat wave risk provides a typical example: air conditioning (AC) equipment may tr...
Article
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Traditional risk assessments use asset losses as the main metric to measure the severity of a disaster. Here, an expanded risk assessment is proposed based on a framework that adds “socioeconomic resilience” — that is, the ability of affected households to cope with and recover from disaster asset losses — and uses “wellbeing losses” as its main me...
Article
Full-text available
Natural disaster risk assessments typically consider environmental hazard and physical damage, neglecting to quantify how asset losses affect households’ well-being. However, for a given asset loss, a wealthy household might quickly recover, while a poor household might suffer major, long-lasting impacts. This research proposes a methodology to qua...
Article
Full-text available
Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-...
Preprint
Full-text available
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a massive economic shock across the world due to business interruptions and shutdowns from social-distancing measures. To evaluate the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 on individuals, a micro-economic model is developed to estimate the direct impact of distancing on household income, savings, consumption, and povert...
Article
In a world of increasingly integrated supply chains, disasters have impacts far from where they hit. A new paper looks at how tropical-cyclone impacts propagate across cities, showing that indirect impacts become large for the most-destructive storms.
Preprint
Full-text available
Countries around the world have sought to stop the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the economic footprint of such “lockdowns” using detailed datasets of global supply chains and a set of pandemic scenarios. We find that COVID-related economic losses...
Article
Full-text available
In June 2015, about 53,000 people were affected by unusually severe floods in Accra, Ghana. The real impact of such a disaster is a product of exposure (“Who was affected?”), vulnerability (“How much did the affected households lose?”), and socioeconomic resilience (“What was their ability to cope and recover?”). This study explores these three dim...
Article
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Poor people are disproportionally affected by natural hazards and disasters. This paper provides a review of the multiple factors that explain why this is the case. It explores the role of exposure (often, but not always, poor people are more likely to be affected by hazards), vulnerability (when they are affected, poor people tend to lose a larger...
Chapter
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The welfare impact of a natural disaster depends on its effect on consumption, not only on the direct asset losses and human losses that are usually estimated and reported after disasters. This chapter proposes a framework to assess disaster-related consumption losses, starting from an estimate of the asset losses, and leading to the following find...
Article
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Background In 2016, 23% of children younger than 5 years were stunted. Global-level modelling has consistently found that climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition. We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting socioecono...
Article
Natural disasters affect supply chains in complex ways that traditional economic models at the sector level cannot capture. An agent-based model representing firm-to-firm interactions demonstrates that these interactions magnify the economic cost of disasters.
Technical Report
Full-text available
This guidance document provides direction to effective drought hazard and risk assessments. It is based on a new extensive inventory of drought models and tools, made available through www.droughtcatalogue.com, and a technical evaluation of these models on a set of case studies. The guidance note will hopefully provide the reader with a good overvi...
Article
Full-text available
Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event....
Preprint
Full-text available
Natural disaster risk assessments typically consider environmental hazard and physical damage, neglecting to quantify how asset losses affect households’ well-being. However, for a given asset loss, a wealthy household might easily recover, while a poor household might suffer from major, long-lasting impacts. Ignoring such differential impacts can...
Article
Full-text available
Infrastructure systems form the backbone of every society, providing essential services that include energy, water, waste management, transport and telecommunications. Infrastructure can also create harmful social and environmental impacts, increase vulnerability to natural disasters and leave an unsustainable burden of debt. Investment in infrastr...
Article
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Resilience-building activities are increasingly evident in development projects, and as a result, there is a growing focus on monitoring and evaluating the associated outcomes of these projects for improved climate risk management. Significant challenges in measuring resilience, however, contribute to both a tendency towards imperfect quantified me...
Article
Full-text available
This paper compares the impact of different climate mitigation policies — mandates, feebates, performance standards, and carbon pricing — in a Ramsey model with clean and polluting capital, irreversible investment, and a climate constraint. These policy instruments imply different transitions to the same balanced growth path. The optimal carbon pri...
Article
Background In 2016, 23% of children (155 million) aged <5 were stunted. Global-level modeling has consistently found climate change impacts on food production are likely to impair progress on reducing undernutrition. Objectives We adopt a new perspective, assessing how climate change may affect child stunting via its impacts on two interacting soc...
Article
With country-specific development objectives and constraints, multiple market failures and limited international transfers, carbon prices do not need to be uniform across countries, but must be part of broader policy packages.
Article
Because their assets and income represent such a small share of national wealth, the impacts of climate change on poor people, even if dramatic, will be largely invisible in aggregate economic statistics such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Assessing and managing future impacts of climate change on poverty requires different metrics, and speci...
Article
Recent research documents the adverse causal impacts on health and productivity of extreme heat, which will worsen with climate change. In this paper, we assess the current distribution of heat exposure within countries, to explore possible distributional consequences of climate change through temperature. Combining survey data from 690,745 househo...
Article
People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. This paper analyses household survey data and hydrological riverine flood and drought data for 52 countries to find out whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposu...
Article
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This paper finds that it is optimal to start a long-term emission-reduction strategy with significant short-term abatement investment, even if the optimal carbon price starts low and grows progressively over time. Moreover, optimal marginal abatement investment costs differ across sectors of the economy. It may be preferable to spend $25 to avoid t...
Article
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Countries have pledged to stabilize global warming at a 1.5–2°C increase. Either target requires reaching net zero emissions before the end of the century, which implies a major transformation of the economic system. This study reviews the literature on how policymakers can design climate policies and their nationally determined contributions to re...