Stefan Vögele

• Dr.
• Head of Department Socioeconomics at Forschungszentrum Jülich

While extreme events have been a focus of research for several decades, often centered around the causes and impacts of meteorological and climatological events, the term has expanded into a range of other disciplines, exploring a wide variety of associated topics. Analytical tools and definitions have hereby posed a challenge that has been address...

Introduction In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become m...

The importance of removing CO2 from the atmosphere to meet climate targets is highlighted in the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. One promising approach is Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS), which involves the capture of CO2 from the air and its subsequent storage underground. Technical feasibility has been demons...

Objectives The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is an extension of Input-Output tables that records macro and meso-economic accounts of a socio-economic system. Its main objective is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the interrelationships among different economic sectors and agents. The SAM can be used for various purposes, including econo...

Im Zentrum dieses Beitrags steht die Frage, wie Resilienz bei der Modellierung zukünftiger Energiesysteme berücksichtigt werden kann. Dabei wird einerseits die Ausgestaltung von Zielsystemen und andererseits die Pfadentwicklung zur Erreichung dieser Systeme betrachtet. Die Resilienz umfasst die Fähigkeit der Zielsysteme, bei Störungen oder Teilausf...

Recognising the urgent need to address water scarcity resulting from climate change, there is a growing push to enhance the resilience of water (and related) systems. For instance, policymakers are now urging companies to shift from short-term focused strategies towards long-term approaches to effectively manage water scarcity. This paper utilises...

Heat waves, drought, but also heavy rainfall events are already being felt in Germany today as a consequence of climate change. These phenomena will intensify in the future. For this reason, we expect water stress at least locally and seasonally in Germany, originally water-rich, due to potentially decreasing groundwater and surface water levels wi...

Background Active citizen participation, especially as collective prosumers in energy communities or as individual prosumers, is vital for a sustainable energy transition. As such, it is explicitly supported by European Union policy. It is the aim of policy-makers that a large proportion of the residential energy demand will be met in this way. At...

Ambitious climate targets affect the competitiveness of industries in the international market. To prevent such industries from moving to other countries in the wake of increased climate protection efforts, cost adjustments may become necessary. Their design requires knowledge of country-specific production costs. Here, we present country-specific...

This paper analyzes environmental attitude, willingness, and behavior using a relatively broad range of survey items from the four Environment Modules of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) in Germany. The ISSP Environment Module is a repeated cross-sectional large-scale survey in Germany covering a period of nearly 30 years with four...

The European Union's aim to become climate neutral by 2050 necessitates ambitious efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Large reductions can be attained particularly in energy intensive sectors like iron and steel. In order to prevent the relocation of such industries outside the EU in the course of tightening environmental regulations, the establish...

Sustainability is a major issue in the automotive sector and players are at different points in their transition. Adopting a multi‐method approach, we identify the positioning of automotive manufacturers in relation to sustainability, highlighting the main foci of their sustainability strategies. This is achieved using a topic model based on automa...

Background Beyond Great Britain, Brexit could also have ripple effects on the electricity systems of certain other EU member states. This paper investigates the possible effects of reduced growth in interconnectivity between Great Britain and mainland Europe by 2030 on the electricity system in GB and across other EU member states in addition to th...

Active participation of citizens in the sustainable energy transition—particularly in energy communities—is explicitly desired by the European Union and considered vital for a successful transformation of Europe’s energy system. Currently, energy communities, i.e., citizen-led groups generating energy from renewable sources can be found across Euro...

Several European countries plan to phase out coal-fired power plants in order to reach their greenhouse gas abatement targets. Additionally, the phase-out will bring about so-called ancillary effects or co-effects. In our study, we focus on the co-effects induced in the countries that export coal to Europe. Furthermore, we examine the ancillary eff...

A decarbonization of the European energy system implies great changes in the residential sector. Recently, the sector does not show the necessary dynamics. Apparently decarbonizing the sector requires a new momentum. Using PV-Battery systems as key technology for the residential sector for becoming more environmentally sustainable as an example, we...

While it is generally accepted that our fossil fuel-dominated energy systems must undergo a sustainable transition, researchers have often neglected the potential impacts of this on water and land systems. However, if unintended environmental impacts from this process are to be avoided, understanding its implications for land use and water demand i...

Germany has introduced measures favorable to the deployment of electric cars, but, so far, their diffusion has been slow. To assess the decarbonization of the transport sector, a wider range of factors and stakeholder priorities must be considered. A multi-criteria approach shows that car users and vehicle manufacturers are likely to resist e-mobil...

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid sc...

Editorial of the special issue "Inclusive and sustainable industrial development: Measurement approaches for energy transformation"

This chapter addresses economic aspects of international actions to combat the threat of climate change. In doing so, the authors first present some key elements of past international climate policy efforts starting in the year 1992 when the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) took place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. At th...

Background Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specifi...

The transport sector is one of the major drivers of global climate change, with a large share related to the personal use of cars. Paradoxically, as efforts are undertaken to reduce this share, a trend to buy large, heavy cars with comparatively high fuel consumption is occurring nearly worldwide. In this article, we analyze the possible influence...

Relocating energy-intensive industries to another country may help to meet national greenhouse gas reduction targets. However, this can lead to rising global emissions if production in the country that receives the shifted industries is associated with higher specific emissions (“carbon leakage”). The relocation of industries and thus the possible...

Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. I...

The main drivers of the transformation processes affecting electricity markets stem from climate policies and changing economic environments. In order to analyse the respective developments, modelling approaches regularly rely on multiple structural and parametric simplifications. For example, discontinuities in economic development (e.g., business...

The steel industry in the European Union (EU), important for the economy as a whole, faces various challenges. These are inter alia volatile prices for relevant input factors, uncertainties concerning the regulation of CO2-emissions and market shocks caused by the recently introduced additional import duties in the US, which is an important sales m...

The main pillars of climate policy are adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. The primary objective of adaptation policies—in turn—is to make adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems that prevent adverse impacts (like losses in agricultural yields) of climate change or take advantage of this change (like using an ice-free Nor...

Ambitious targets like the ones formulated in the Paris Agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) cannot be achieved without a decarbonisation of the transportation sector. Like other policy interventions, policies focusing on this sector will be linked with primary and ancillary effects. In this study, we assess to what ex...

This volume presents new developments in the research on ancillary benefits. Twenty years after the influential OECD report on ancillary benefits, the authors discuss theoretical innovations and offer new empirical findings on various ancillary effects in different world regions. Covering topics such as ancillary health effects associated with redu...

Energy scenarios currently in use for policy advice are based on a number of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in particular, the linear extrapolation of trends. However, this approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures and the specification of measures, novel approache...

‘Extreme event’, a term today most commonly understood and used in relation to extreme weather phenomena and experiencing an upsurge in its usage due to their increased frequency caused by climate change, is applied in a variety of scientific disciplines. Its multitude of users understands and defines the term differently. However, consistency in l...

In Germany, the public is exposed to pro and counter arguments regarding different electricity generation technologies. To assess the attitudinal consequences of these arguments, we presented a balanced set of seven pro and seven counter arguments concerning one of six electricity-generating technologies (i.e., coal power stations, gas power statio...

The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) has potential ramifications for the country’s electricity sector, given its increasing interlinkage with other EU electricity systems. Brexit could hamper the development toward higher market integration and the realization of new interconnector projects. Moreover, a fall in the value of the Pound, resulti...

In Europe, Germany is the greatest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. With ambitious targets regarding reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and use of energy carriers, Germany aims to be a frontrunner in Europe with respect to energy and environmental policy. However, increasing problems after harvesting “low-hanging” fruits and increasing activ...

Background While there are plenty of studies investigating the market penetration of new technologies, phase-out processes of a predominant technology are rarely analyzed. The present study explores the case of a declining technology, employing the example of coal-fired power plants in Germany. These plants were promoted by governmental decision-ma...

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is frequently regarded as a promising approach to mitigate global warming. Yet, by and by CCS is losing political support. The key reason for that is largely seen in the lack of public acceptance for this technology. The absence of public acceptance, in turn, is in particular due to the environmental risks ascribed...

Die Bekämpfung des Klimawandels wird von mehreren Nebeneffekten begleitet und beeinflusst. So bewirkt eine Klimaschutzmaßnahme nicht nur den globalen (öffentlichen) Effekt der Milderung des Klimawandels, sondern kann ebenfalls zu lokalen (privaten) Effekten, wie z. B. Luftqualitätsverbesserungen führen. Klimaschutzmaßnahmen werden demnach durch ver...

Germany is liable to miss its greenhouse gas reduction target for 2020. Nonetheless, additional political measures such as an early phase-out of coal-fired power plants might make it possible to reach this target. However, this generates several (conflicting) challenges, which arise from the technical, environmental, economic, and social implicatio...

Ob im Gebäudebereich die Ziele der Energiewende mit den bisher ergriffenen Maßnahmen erreicht werden, erscheint angesichts der bisherigen Entwicklung zweifelhaft. Anhand von 6 Thesen wird diskutiert, welche Barrieren und zusätzlichen Potenziale bisher zu wenig beachtet wurden. 1. Bei den bisher auf die privaten Hauseigentümer ausgerichteten Förderp...

A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and d...

Many studies stress the needs of interdependence analysis under the special conditions of multidisciplinary systems that include social systems. This applies, in particular, to scenarios on future energy demand and supply. Using the example of the residential sector in Germany we provide information on factors and their possible outcomes taking mul...

Model-based energy scenarios are a widely used tool for supporting economic and political decision makers. The results of energy modeling and the conclusions deduced therefrom, however, depend on the model input data derived from framework assumptions about future developments in the embedding society, which are deeply uncertain in the long term. T...

The cost of carbon capture is a crucial factor for the deployment of the technologies in the electricity sector. In general, much higher electricity generation costs arise in case of carbon capture. With an increase of approximately 80 %, lignite-based CCS plants are particularly affected. The CO2 avoidance costs are € 34–38/tCO2 for lignite plants...

Climate variability and change affect electricity generation in several ways. Electricity generation is directly dependent on climate/weather parameters like wind (wind power generation) or air temperature and resulting water temperature (thermal power plants). River discharge as a result of precipitation and temperature, the latter being one main...

The iron and steel industry has some of the highest levels of carbon emissions and energy consumption in Europe. At the same time, this sector is of great economic importance for the European Union. In this paper we investigate the technological, market and policy factors that are associated with a reduction in the specific energy consumption in ir...

In Europe the ambitions of individual countries to deploy carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are diverse. Reasons for this are, amongst other things, the heterogeneity of national electricity generation systems and storage capacities and the differences in the public perception of these technologies. In this analysis we investigate the c...

In highly developed countries electricity generation is one of the largest water users. Water is mainly used in the cooling processes of thermal power plants. In as yet less developed countries, electricity requirements are also increasing in step with increasing production and standard of living. Renewable electricity generation is gaining more at...

The share of renewable resources in electricity generation, e.g. in Germany, is increasing. The power sector is thus becoming more dependent on climate/weather parameters. During the summer months of the last decade, numerous thermal power plants in Europe had to be throttled due to water shortages and high water temperatures. At the same time, Eur...

Despite high CO2 emissions released by coal-fired energy production, coal will remain an important source of energy in coming decades. This case study explores the lead market status of China, Germany, Japan and the US for clean coal technologies. We concentrate on two existing technological standards: supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (US...

In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each po...

Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate c...

In the course of European efforts to mitigate global warming, the application of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies is discussed as a potential option. Some political opposition was raised – inter alia – by uncertainties about the effective cost of such technologies. Because of the cost structure of CCS power plants with high ‘fl...

Dass die geplante Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems als Transformation eines soziotechnischen Systems verstanden werden muss, ist heute eine breit akzeptierte Sicht in der Energieforschung und auch Grundverständnis der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Die praktische Umsetzung dieser Einsicht ist jedoch in vielen Bereichen der Energieforsch...

Radical innovations are frequently called for in order that the transformation of society to a system perceived as sustainable can succeed. The reason given for this is the greater environmental efficiency of these innovations. We review the hypothesis that radical innovations are superior to incremental innovations by taking the case of fossil fue...

Decisions of electricity suppliers on investments in low-carbon energy technologies like photovoltaic (PV) and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) depend on the expected profits or surpluses that can be earned. For an assessment of the profitability of investments in PV (and other renewable energy technologies), additional costs caused by the...

In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref. ) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern...

Thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil fueled) power plants currently produce 91% of all electricity in the United States and 78% in Europe. These power plants directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the Southeastern U.S. were f...

The availability of electric power is an important prerequisite for the development or maintenance of high living standards. Global change, including socio-economic change and climate change, is a challenge for those who have to deal with the long-term management of thermoelectric power plants. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their...

The forced system integration of renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency are two important pillars of the current energy concept of the federal government. Thus, energy storage development is recognized as an important key element. The current focus is directed particularly to the storage of electricity. Currently, research efforts of gro...

Climate change tends to negatively affect the power sector, inter alia, by causing cooling problems in power plants and impairing the water supply required for hydro-power generation. In future, when global warming is expected to increase, autonomous adaptation to climate change via international electricity markets inducing reallocations of power...

Numerous power plants in Europe had to be throttled in summer months of the years 2003 and 2006 due to water shortages and high water temperatures caused by a hot and dry summer. Therefore, the effects of higher temperatures on power plants have received much attention in the last years. One article published in Regional Environmental Change presen...

This paper combines an existing projection of the development of electricity production with a technology-specific environmental assessment. The combination of these two approaches, which so far have only been performed separately, allows a discussion about environmental effects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation strategies on a nat...

Effects of climate change on water demand and water availability for power plants - examples for the German capital Berlin Stefan Vögelea, Hagen Kochb&c, Uwe Grünewaldb a Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute of Energy Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, D-52425 Jülich, Germany b Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Chair...

Kurzfassung: Die Suche nach Neuerungen sowie deren Verbreitung ist aufgrund des rasant zunehmenden Güter-und Dienstleistungsaustausches sowie des Anstiegs des Informations-, Wissens-und Technologietransfers mehr und mehr in einem internationalen Kontext zu sehen. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich eine Vielzahl von Fragen:. Warum z.B. verlagern ein...

In absolute terms, energy consumption in the brick and tile industry is relatively low in comparison with other energy intensive branches of industry such as steelmaking. However, the product-specific energy consumption is a major production factor. Most of the energy consumed in the brick and tile industry is gas and electricity. Current and futur...

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases cause climate change and this change in turn induces various direct impacts, e.g., changes in regional weather patterns. The frequency of heat waves and droughts in Europe is likely to rise. Yet, beyond these immediate effects of climate change, there are more indirect effects: Droughts may cause water sc...

According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well...

Das energiepolitische und -wirtschaftliche Umfeld setzt die Rahmenbedingungen für eine erfolgreiche Implementierung von CO2-Abscheidungstechnik in Kraftwerken. In aktuellen Energieszenarien wird die zukünftige Rolle der Stein- und Braunkohleverstromung sehr unterschiedlich bewertet. Dies spiegelt sich auch in den aktuellen Stromerzeugungsprojektion...

In this presentation it is analyzed how the replacement of out-dated power plants can be combined with a German CCS strategy and which environmental impacts this will cause. Although the application of CCS results in net reduction of CO2 emissions, a broader environmental analysis is necessary to show the overall environmental impacts. Based on Lif...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

In recent years a lot of new energy models have been developed to analyze climate change mitigation strategies and the effects such strategies have on economic and technological development. Two main types of models can be identified: Top-down models that focus on the economic interactions within different sectors in an economy and bottom-up models...

In der Diskussion um Innovationen für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung werden häufig radikale Innovationen gefordert, damit die Transformation der Gesellschaft hin zu einem nachhaltigen Energiesystem gelingen kann. Begründet wird dies mit einer höheren Umwelteffizienz dieser Innovationen. Empirische Evidenz für diese Hypothese ist allerdings kaum zu fi...