Stefan Dullinger

University of Vienna | UniWien · Department of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology

Farmers in Europe act within guidelines set by agricultural programs, market demands and biophysical constraints. At the same time, they are social actors embedded in their respective family structures and individual lifestyles and preferences. We here present the socio-ecological land-use model SECLAND that provides an improved representation of t...

With ongoing global urbanization processes and consumption patterns increasingly recognized as key determinants of environmental change, a better understanding of the links between urban consumption and biodiversity loss is paramount. Here we quantify the global biodiversity footprint (BDF) of Vienna's (Austria) biomass consumption. We present a st...

Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resu...

Long-term analyses of biodiversity data highlight a ‘biodiversity conservation paradox’: biological communities show substantial species turnover over the past century1,2, but changes in species richness are marginal1,3–5. Most studies, however, have focused only on the incidence of species, and have not considered changes in local abundance. Here...

The redistribution of alien species across the globe accelerated with the start of European colonialism. European powers were responsible for the deliberate and accidental transportation, introduction and establishment of alien species throughout their occupied territories and the metropolitan state. Here, we show that these activities left a lasti...

Protected Areas (PA) play a pivotal role in conservation biology. Climate change challenges the concept of static PAs as species may not find suitable climatic conditions in the PAs designed to protect them in the future. Here, we assess this emerging mismatch for the endemic mountain flora of the Iranian Plateau, the main part of the Irano-Anatoli...

Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis predicts successful alien invaders to be distantly related to native species, whereas his pre-adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. It has been suggested that depending on the invasion stage (that is, introduction, naturalization and invasiveness), both hypotheses, now known as Darwin’s naturalization conun...

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and envi...

Arable habitats (i.e. fields, orchards, vineyards, and their fallows) were created by humans and have been essential elements in Central European landscapes for several thousand years. In recent decades, these habitats were drastically altered by changes in land use as well as agricultural practices and, more recently, by climate change. These chan...

Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. Although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resu...

Aim: Species' ecological traits influence their spatial genetic patterns. Bedrock preference strongly shapes the phylogeography of alpine plants, but its interactions with other ecological traits have rarely been disentangled. Here, we explore whether dispersal ability and degree of habitat specialization account for divergent postglacial expansio...

The occurrence and origin of dry grasslands and their rich biota in the moderately humid Central‐European climate have fascinated scientists for over a century. Modern palaeoecological and phylogeographical data support earlier hypotheses that these grasslands are late Pleistocene relicts and can therefore be considered part of the Eurasian forest–...

Perspectives in conservation are based on a variety of value systems. Such differences in how people value nature and its components lead to different evaluations of the morality of conservation goals and approaches, and often underlie disagreements in the formulation and implementation of environmental management policies. Specifically, whether a...

Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global acc...

Land-use has transformed ecosystems over three quarters of the terrestrial surface, with massive repercussions on biodiversity. Land-use intensity is known to contribute to the effects of land-use on biodiversity, but the magnitude of this contribution remains uncertain. Here, we use a modified countryside species-area model to compute a global acc...

Modelling of climate-driven range shifts commonly treats species as ecologically homogeneous units. However, many species show intraspecific variation of climatic niches and theory predicts that such variation may lead to counterintuitive eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here, we incorporate assumed intraspecific niche variation into a dynamic range mode...

Darwin’s naturalization hypothesis predicts successful invaders to be distantly related to native species, whereas his pre-adaptation hypothesis predicts the opposite. It has been suggested that depending on the invasion stage (i.e. introduction, naturalization, and invasiveness), both hypotheses, now known as Darwin’s naturalization conundrum, cou...

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a diverse...

Climate driven species’ range shifts may interfere with existing protected area (PA) networks, resulting in a mismatch between places where species are currently protected and places where they can thrive in the future. Here, we assess the climate-smartness of the Austrian PA network by focusing on endemic species’ climatic niches and their future...

Deadwood is a habitat for numerous biota and serves as an indicator of forest biodiversity. Bryophytes significantly contribute to deadwood communities and epixylic bryophytes are particularly threatened. Additional to deadwood volumes, their occurrence depends on climatic conditions. However, the interactive effects of dead-wood and climate on epi...

Background Land use is the major driver of the current biodiversity crisis. However, its impact is not yet adequately reflected in biodiversity scenarios. In particular, effects of land‐use intensity are often neglected although natural limits to land conversion will likely enforce further land‐use intensification in the future. Aims and innovatio...

Aim Alpine habitats support unique biodiversity confined to high‐elevation areas in the current interglacial. Plant diversity in these habitats may respond to area, environment, connectivity and isolation, yet these factors have been rarely evaluated in concert. Here we investigate major determinants of regional species pools in alpine grasslands,...

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-ecological predictors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet a global synthetic perspective of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how a set of five socio-ecological predictors (Governance...

Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, current global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to biodiversity and the economy. We used a novel participatory process to develop a diverse set of global b...

Tropical secondary forests comprise about half of the world’s tropical forests and are important as carbon sinks and to conserve biodiversity. Their rate of recovery varies widely; however, particularly older secondary forests are difficult to date so that the recovery rate is uncertain. As a consequence, factors affecting recovery are difficult to...

Human introductions of species beyond their natural ranges and their subsequent establishment are defining features of global environmental change. However, naturalized plants are not uniformly distributed across phylogenetic lineages, with some families contributing disproportionately more to the global alien species pool than others. Additionally...

Mountain plant species are changing their ranges in response to global warming. However, these shifts vary tremendously in rate, extent and direction. The reasons for this variation are yet poorly understood. A process potentially important for mountain plant re-distribution is a competition between colonizing species and the resident vegetation. H...

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native s...

Perspectives in conservation can be based on a variety of value systems and normative postulates. Perspectives also vary between cultures. Such differences in what and how people value nature, underlie many disagreements and conflicts during the formulation and implementation of environmental management policies. Specifically, whether an action int...

Biological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity with particularly strong implications for island biodiversity. Much research has been dedicated towards understanding historic and current changes in alien species distribution and impacts on islands and potential changes under future climate change. However, projections of how alien sp...

Aim Mountains and islands are both well known for their high endemism. To explain this similarity, parallels have been drawn between the insularity of “true islands” (land surrounded by water) and the isolation of habitats within mountains (so‐called “mountain islands”). However, parallels rarely go much beyond the observation that mountaintops are...

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an ex...

Polyploidization and the shift to apomictic reproduction are connected to changes in DNA cytosine-methylation. Cytosine-methylation is further sensitive to environmental conditions. We, therefore, hypothesize that DNA methylation patterns would differentiate within species with geographical parthenogenesis, i.e., when diploid sexual and polyploid a...

Climate-driven range dynamics of species will interact with land use patterns that have reduced and fragmented habitat types needed for species’ survival. This interaction could either amplify or mitigate the threats to species from climate change, but has so far been little explored. Here, we investigate whether shifts of suitable areas under futu...

Tropical rainforests harbor exceptionally high biodiversity and store large amounts of carbon in vegetation biomass. However, regional variation in plant species richness and vegetation carbon stock can be substantial, and may be related to the heterogeneity of topoedaphic properties. Therefore, aboveground vegetation carbon storage typically diffe...

Roadsides are major pathways of plant invasions in mountain regions. However, the increasing importance of tourism may also turn hiking trails into conduits of non-native plant spread to remote mountain landscapes. Here, we evaluated the importance of such trails for plant invasion in five protected mountain areas of southern central Chile. We ther...

Climate and land-use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent-based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematical...

For many species, human-induced environmental changes are important indirect drivers of range expansion into new regions. We argue that it is important to distinguish the range dynamics of such species from those that occur without, or with less clear, involvement of human-induced environmental changes. We elucidate the salient features of the rapi...

Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the Europea...

Biological invasions are a defining feature of the Anthropocene, but the factors that determine the spatially uneven distribution of alien plant species are still poorly understood. Here, we present the first global analysis of the effects of biogeographic factors, the physical environment and socio-economy on the richness of naturalized and invasi...

Biological invasions have emerged as an eminent feature of global change, with substantial impacts on the environment and human livelihoods. Current research demonstrates that the numbers and impacts of alien species are rising unabatedly. At the same time, we lack a thorough understanding of potential future trajectories for the decades to come. W...

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to project how suitable ranges of species shift under a warming climate. Conservation management, however, commonly targets habitat types rather than individual species. Such habitat types are often defined by the co-occurrence of a set of characteristic species. Here, we develop a co-occurrence-based ind...

AlienScenarios, a three-year project starting in March 2019, will evaluate for the first time the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21 st century. AlienScenarios consists of seven project partners and seven integrated complementary subprojects. We will develop the qualitative narratives for plausible futures of global alien...

Land-use and climate change are pervasive drivers of global environmental change, posing major threats to global ecosystems and biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use...

Aim Range shifts along elevational gradients are considered a major response of mountain species to climate change. However, empirical studies have so far mainly focused on leading edges or on species’ optima, and evidence of rear edge shifts remains scarce. Yet, the balance between leading and rear edge shifts has important consequences for conser...

Climate warming is supposed to enlarge the area climatically suitable to the naturalization of alien garden plants in temperate regions. However, the effects of a changing climate on the spread of naturalized ornamentals have not been evaluated by spatially and temporarily explicit range modelling at larger scales so far. Here, we assess how climat...

Climate change and nitrogen (N) deposition are among the most important drivers of biodiversity change at a global scale. Although commonly considered separately in applied research, conservation, and policy development, both empirical evidence and modelling studies indicate that these two stressors may act synergistically and trigger a more pronou...

Motivation: The Tundra Trait Team (TTT) database includes field‐based measurements of key traits related to plant form and function at multiple sites across the tundra biome. This dataset can be used to address theoretical questions about plant strategy and trade‐offs, trait–environment relationships and environmental filtering, and trait variation...

This dataset provides the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database, version 1.2. GloNAF represents a data compendium on the occurrence and identity of naturalized alien vascular plant taxa across geographic regions (e.g. countries, states, provinces, districts, islands) around the globe. The dataset includes 13,939 taxa and covers 1,029 reg...

The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem...

Significance Islands are hotspots of alien species invasions, and their distinct biodiversity is particularly vulnerable to invading species. While isolation has shaped natural colonization of islands for millions of years, globalization in trade and transport has led to a breakdown of biogeographical barriers and subsequent colonization of islands...

The relationship between species’ niche breadth (i.e. the range of environmental conditions under which a species can persist) and range size (i.e. the extent of its spatial distribution) has mostly been tested within geographically restricted areas but rarely at the global extent. Here, we not only tested the relationship between range size (deriv...

1.Most naturalized and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalized. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalization for some ornamental ali...

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncert...

Globally accelerating trends in societal development and human environmental impacts since the mid-twentieth century1-7are known as the Great Acceleration and have been discussed as a key indicator of the onset of the Anthropocene epoch6. While reports on ecological responses (for example, changes in species range or local extinctions) to the Great...

The reasons why the range size of closely related species often varies significantly have intrigued scientists for many years. Among other hypotheses, species with high trait variation were suggested to occupy more diverse environments, have more continuity in their distributions, and consequently have larger range sizes. Here, using 34 tree specie...

Coefficients estimated (β) ± 1 standard error and the associated test statistics for mixed effects models evaluating the effect of the sample size on the coefficient of variation for eight functional traits analysed in 34 neotropical trees species. (DOCX)

Fixed effects coefficients (β ± 1 standard error), derived from linear mixed effects models, for the effects of environmental variables measured on eight functional traits in 335 individual trees of 34 species, using species identity as a random effect. The functional traits included in the analysis were: Leaf area (LA), leaf thickness (LT), specif...