Simon Peter Shepherd

• University of Leeds

In this study, we consider the introduction of new mobility services and technologies into the megacity of Beijing, China, as per developed strategy and action plans, in order to investigate their potential contribution to sustainable mobility. This includes population relocation (decentralization), the construction of new rail lines, the introduct...

This poster is designed to present to the transport research community the wide existing body of work and potential future applications of the method of System Dynamics (SD) within transport research. We introduce the reader to the basic concepts of the SD method, and discuss previous reviews of academic SD pa-pers, before setting out a systematic...

Introduction: In this paper we consider system dynamics (SD) modelling of tradable transport permit schemes (TTPS). TTPS are complex and uncertain, having not yet been implemented beyond experimental trials anywhere in the world, yet have for some time been suggested as an efficient and equitable policy response to reducing car-based travel and its...

In this work we are concerned with how the introduction of connected and automated mobility (CAM) will influence liveability in cities. We engaged with city and transport planners from both Europe and the U.S. and adopted a system dynamics approach to capturing the discussions and exploring potential outcomes. There are two aims in doing this: (1)...

As a major emission contributor with significant growth potential, the light goods vehicles (vans) play an important part in achieving net-zero. In 2020 the UK government committed to phasing out sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vans by 2030, but the impact of the policy and how far are we to decarbonize the entire van fleet by 2050 is...

This paper considers how the implementation of a tradable credit scheme (TCS) may be used to reduce road traffic and to contribute to the formation of liveable cities and global climate change commitments. The concept of applying TCS to individual road transport is familiar to transport researchers as a measure to regulate congestion and reduce tra...

Vehicle emission remote sensing devices have been widely used for monitoring and assessing the real-world emission performance of vehicles. They are also well-suited to identify candidate high emitting vehicles as remote sensing surveys measure the on-road, real-driving emissions (RDE) of a high proportion of the operational vehicle fleet passing t...

Developing sustainable land use and transport strategies.

Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies and services are rapidly developing and have the potential to revolutionise the transport systems. However, like many innovations, the uptake pathways are uncertain. The focus of this article is on improving understanding of factors that may affect the uptake of highly and fully automated vehicles,...

Refrigerated vans used for home deliveries are attracting attention as online grocery shopping in the UK is expanding rapidly and contributes to the increasing greenhouse gas (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions. These vans are typically 3.5-tonne gross weight vehicles equipped with temperature-controlled units called Transport Refrigeration U...

Rationale: Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. A decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (boyhood) dream. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly becoming a reality, with a seri...

The quantification and comparison of NOX emission from in-situ car fleets, and identification of the highest emitters is an ongoing challenge. This challenge will become more important as new and increasingly complex emissions removal systems penetrate the market. We combine real-world data with new-to-the-field statistical methods to describe flee...

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology for analysing the causal relations between public transportation development, tourism and land use by combining System Dynamics (SD) with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM). It is applied to illustrate the quantitative and spatial effect of the two phases Light Rail Transi...

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology for analysing the causal relations between public transportation development, tourism and land use by combining System Dynamics (SD) with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM). It is applied to illustrate the quantitative and spatial effect of the two phases Light Rail Transi...

Successful development of “Mobility-as-a-Service” (MaaS) schemes could be transformative to our transport systems and critical for achieving sustainable cities. There are high hopes for mobile phone applications that offer both journey planning and ticketing across all the available transport modes, but these are in their infancy, with little under...

Objective The concept of automated cars is rapidly becoming a reality. Yet there has been very little analysis of the impacts of such developments on the performance of urban transport systems. These impacts are potentially complex. On the positive side, automation has the potential to increase road capacity, make driving available to more people,...

Rationale: Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. A decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (boyhood) dream. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly becoming a reality, with a seri...

Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. Till a decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (childhood) dream in science fiction movies and books. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly...

Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. Till a decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (childhood) dream in science fiction movies and books. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly...

Long-distance travel is growing in Europe. While it only accounts for around 3% of trips made, it contributes around a third of distance travelled and to the growing problem of carbon emissions. Despite this there has been little evidence on what causes growth in long-distance travel. This paper presents the LUNA model, a System Dynamics model of l...

Long-distance travel is growing in Europe. While it only accounts for around 3% of trips made, it contributes around a third of distance travelled and to the growing problem of carbon emissions. Despite this there has been little evidence on what drives growth in long-distance travel. This paper presents the LUNA model which is a System Dynamics mo...

There is a high level of interest in investing in inter-city connectivity schemes. The rationale for these schemes is improved economic performance through increased productivity, jobs, and output. The mobility costs of switching between sectors for labour and capital may limit the level of sectoral specialisation achieved and the associated positi...

This paper studies first-best and second-best congestion pricing in the presence of unobserved and observed preference heterogeneity using a stylised stochastic user equilibrium choice model. Travellers choose between multiple alternatives, have heterogeneous values of travel times, and may differ in their valuation of variety. We derive first-best...

There is a high level of interest in investing in inter-city connectivity schemes. The rationale for these schemes is improved economic performance through increased productivity, jobs and output. Mobility costs of switching between sectors for labour and capital may limit the level of sectoral specialisation achieved and the associated positive pr...

Progress in information and communication technology allows automation levels that were a decade ago only the domain of sci-fi films. Despite this there is still no consent whether automated driving will happen in form of private cars, shared fleets or integrated into public transport. Changes might happen evolutionary or revolutionary. Expectation...

Progress in information and communication technology allows automation levels that were a decade ago only the domain of sci-fi films. Despite this there is still no consent whether automated driving will happen in form of private cars, shared fleets or integrated into public transport. Changes might happen evolutionary or revolutionary. Expectation...

The advancements in communication and sensing technologies can be exploited to assist the drivers in making better decisions. In this paper, we consider the design of a real-time cooperative eco-driving strategy for a group of vehicles with mixed automated vehicles (AVs) and human driven vehicles (HVs). The lead vehicles in the platoon can receive...

This paper explores a tension between financialisation of electricity infrastructures and efforts to bring critical urban systems into common ownership. Focusing on the emerging landscape of electricity regulation and e-mobility in the United Kingdom (UK), it examines how electricity grid ownership has become financialised, and why the economic ass...

A ‘one-stop-shop’ mobile phone travel application that integrates journey planning, booking, payment and real-time traffic information is being developed and tested in the Smarter Travel Solution (STS) project for West Yorkshire, UK. The aim is to support a shift away from private car travel by providing users with accurate information and easy pay...

Implications: Synchronized remote sensing measurements of NO were taken using two different remote sensing devices in an off-road study. It was found that the measurements taken by both instruments were well correlated. Fractional NO2 measurements from a prior study, measurable on only one device, were used to create new NOx emission factors for t...

There is huge potential to link electric vehicles, local energy systems, and personal mobility in the city. By doing so we can improve air quality, tackle climate change, and grow new business models. Business model innovation is needed because new technologies and engineering innovations are currently far ahead of the energy system’s ability to ac...

Long-distance travel is growing. While it only accounts for around 3% of trips made, it contributes around a third of distance travelled and so contributes to the growing problem of carbon emissions. Despite this there has been little evidence on what drives this growth in long-distance travel. This paper presents the LUNA model which is a System D...

Every driver will have experienced the situation in which, as additional traffic joins a road, speeds fall, queues form and travel times become longer and more predictable. Engineers and traffic scientists have devoted considerable effort to understanding how such conditions arise, and how the key parameters of traffic flow, traffic concentration (...

While there exists extensive literature on the first- and second-best tolling of congested transportation networks, much of it presumes the existence of a single agent responsible for toll-setting. The present paper extends the small but growing body of work studying the impact of several agents independently regulating tolls on different parts of...

In this paper we model the competition between two cities as a game to maximise the welfare considering the impact of demand management strategies in the form of cordon tolls. This research builds on earlier work which studied the competition in a small tolled network meant for private modes of transport which have a choice of route. The earlier wo...

Large off-street car parks are traditionally modelled as self-standing traffic zones representing origins/destinations in standard network assignment models. However, such a treatment precludes the drivers from choosing alternative car parks as it assumes the car parks are their final destinations. This paper discusses the feasibility of bringing c...

The estimation of speed from a single vehicle detector has been a popular area of research largely due to the potential for reduced maintenance and installation costs associated with the more conventional method of using two closely spaced detectors with a known offset distance. Speed cannot be directly measured using a single detector but flow and...

How does competition between toll road operators (concessionaires) affect welfare? An extensive literature has studied this question with analysis generally focusing on the case of competition between links connecting a single OD pair. This paper studies this topic instead on a large network with multiple OD pairs where travellers’ route choices ar...

It is 20 years since Abbas and Bell [1994. “System Dynamics Applicability to Transportation Modeling.” Transportation Research Part A 28 (5): 373–390] evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of system dynamics (SD) as an approach for modelling in the transportation area. They listed 12 advantages of the approach and in particular suggested it was we...

Land use and transport interaction (LUTI) plan in a sustainable urban development should achieve the highest expected utility in technical, economic, environmental and social aspects for city long term strategic planning. In fact, congestion and urban sprawl, which contributes to carbon emissions, are the most problems faced by many cities worldwid...

This paper analyses the application of road user charging for the reduction of local pollution in environmentally sensitive areas. The key question is to investigate the interdependencies between the price setting strategies of neighbouring institutions with conflicting objectives and what the optimal strategy would be if environmental consideratio...

Driven by concerns of climate change, governments across the world are introducing a number of policies to accelerate the uptake of low carbon vehicles (LCVs), with a specific focus on electric motors. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such policies and technology pathways, which are inherently interlinked. This article consider...

This paper deals with first-best and second-best congestion pricing of a stylised two-link network with probabilistic route choice of travellers. Travellers may have heterogeneous values of travel times and may differ in their idiosyncratic route preferences. We derive first-best and second-best tolls taking into account how the overall network dem...

Probabilistic choice theory is widely applied in transportation science. Instead of deterministic trade-offs, utility is considered as a random variable depending on a deterministic part and a random part. The early developments in the theory of individual choice considered human behaviour as inherently probabilistic and was mainly developed to inc...

Private toll operators generally seek to maximize their profit while accounting for the re-routing and demand response of the road users and, in the case of competitive toll operation, the response of other toll operators. Traditionally, the literature assumes that toll operators act under perfect information or set up a game-theoretic approach to...

The aim of this Guidebook is to explain the use of the published version of the System Dynamics model LUNA (Simulating the demand for Long-distance travel Using a Non-OD-matrix based Approach) which was developed in the framework of the project ORIGAMI. Details about the rationale and the mathematical details can be found in Deliverable 3.1 of ORIG...

The System Dynamics based long-distance travel demand model LUNA (Simulating the demand for Long-distance travel Using a Non-OD-matrix based Approach) was developed in the framework of the EU funded research project ORIGAMI (Optimal Regulation and Infrastructure for Ground, Air and Maritime Interfaces). The model LUNA will be used to forecast and e...

Extending the literature on competition in the presence of cordon tolls, this article explores the implications of competition between two cities. The city authorities are assumed to maximise the welfare of their own residents whilst taking advantage of tax export mechanisms by charging traffic from the competing authority. The problem is posed as...

Several studies have indicated that option generation – the development of a range of strategic policy options to tackle identified transport problems – is the weakest link in current transport planning practice. Local authorities all too often limit themselves to pre-conceived solutions, focus on supply-side rather than demand-side polices, an...

Macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFD) of traffic for some networks have been shown to have similar shape to those for single links. They have erroneously been used to help estimate the level of travel in congested networks. We argue that supply curves, which track vehicles in their passage through congested networks, are needed for this purpose, a...

This paper investigates interdependencies between road user charging strategies of neighbouring institutions and discusses the implications for the optimal strategy for the protection of environmentally sensitive areas. Using simulation models, welfare optimising cordon charges including pollution costs have been determined for three different scen...

This paper considers the use of 'long-run cost functions' for congested networks in solving second-best network problems, in which capacity and tolls are instruments. We derive analytical results both for general cost and demand functions and for specific functional forms, namely Bureau of Public Roads cost functions and constant-elasticity demand...

It is widely accepted that cities understand what action is needed to achieve greater sustainability in urban transport, but that there are several barriers to the pursuit of such actions. While research is able to suggest ways of overcoming these barriers, the process of transferring research results into practice is itself uncertain. This paper f...

Available from: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/42660/

Land use transport interaction models have been developed in various forms dating back to the early 1960s. They have moved from spatial interaction models or statistical models through econometric models to micro-simulation, cell-based automata and agent-based models. There has been a move towards more detail in representing space and individual be...

An Equilibrium Problem with an Equilibrium Constraint (EPEC) is a mathematical construct that can be applied to private competition in highway networks. In this paper we consider the problem of finding a Nash Equilibrium in a situation of competition in toll pricing on a network utilising two alternative algorithms. In the first algorithm, we utili...

While there has been a lot of effort spent investigating road user charging in the literature, there has been much less research focusing on the implications of the institutional setting in the delivery of road user charging policies. This objective of this paper is to investigate the implications of interdependencies between the decision-making pr...

There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. One such system is personal rapid transit (PRT), a system of automated demand-responsive vehicles designed to transport individuals directly to their destinations. Assessing the contribution of such a system when applied extensively in an ur...

Sustainable urban areas are widely considered a promising target for every city. Different policies are being designed in order to tackle the multifaceted range of transport-related problems in urban agglomerations and therefore contribute significantly to the overall quality of life in cities. The recently published communication “Green Paper - To...

Research has shown that most local authorities do not use models in strategy formulation or scheme design and that others who do are doubtful of their value. This paper reports on a study aimed at enhancing analytical planning tools. Firstly, barriers to modelling of policy instruments were assessed by survey and literature review. From this themes...

System optimal (SO) or first best pricing is examined in networks with multiple user classes and elastic demand, where different user classes have a different average value of value of time (VOT). Different flows (and first best tolls) are obtained depending on whether the SO characterisation is in units of generalised time or money. The standard f...

This paper proposes an innovative approach for designing a road user charging scheme to meet multiple policy objectives. Three practical features are integrated into the design methodology including (i) cordon formation, (ii) a set of design constraints, and (iii) multiple objectives of the scheme. The methods also consider possible responses of ro...

En la UE se ha estimado que los costes de la congesti�n representan el 2% de su PIB y que el coste de la poluci�n del aire y ruido supera el 0,6% del PIB, siendo alrededor del 90% de los mismos ocasionados por el transporte terrestre. Ante este hecho y el continuo aumento de la demanda del transporte privado frente al p�blico para los desplazamient...

This document reports on the modelling work being undertaken as part of Work Package 2.3, Sub-Project 2, in the CityMobil project. The main objective of this sub-project is to develop analysis tools to assess the transport and land-use implications of innovative transport technologies if applied now or over the next 30 years. A total of 22 scenari...

En la reciente comunicación del “Libro Verde, Hacia una nueva cultura de la movilidad urbana” claramente se especifica que las ciudades europeas son todas diferentes, pero sin embargo se enfrentan a retos afines tratando de encontrar soluciones similares para hacer nuestras ciudades más sostenibles (COM (2007) 551). . Esto no es una tarea menor cua...

An Equilibrium problem with an equilibrium constraint is a mathematical construct that can be applied to private competition in highway networks. In this paper we consider the problem of finding a Nash Equilibrium regarding competition in toll pricing on a network utilising 2 alternative algorithms. In the first algorithm, we utilise a Gauss Siedel...

This paper outlines a procedure for implementing area-based road user charging scheme and then compares the benefits between the usual cordon-based and area-based road pricing schemes. The results are illustrated with a network similar to that for Cambridge, England. It has been found that the benefits from road pricing schemes could be optimised w...

Transport externalities such as costs of emissions and accidents are increasingly being used within appraisal and optimisation frameworks alongside the more traditional congestion analysis to set optimal transport policies. Models of externalities and costs of externalities may be implemented by a simple constant cost per vehicle-km approach or by...

Fuel tax increases and specific fuel carbon taxes are estimated to have a powerful impact on emissions. As a fact, many policy makers report this strategy as part of CO2 policy. Although implementation cost are much lower than other approaches, political sensitivities currently pre-vent using fuel taxes to influence CO2 emissions, despite their eff...

Current transport behaviour leads to increasing congestion of the infrastructure, growing dependence on fossil fuels, increasing energy demand, and growing CO2 emissions. Policies based principally on increasing system speed and in particular car speeds will lead to greater urban sprawl with increases in average trip lengths. Time saved by speed in...

Current transport behaviour leads to increasing congestion of the infrastructure, growing dependence on fossil fuels, increasing energy demand, and growing CO2 emissions. Policies based principally on increasing system speed and in particular car speeds will lead to greater urban sprawl with increases in average trip lengths. Time saved by speed in...

There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. These systems include cybercars, personal rapid transit (PRT), automated or high-technology buses, and dual mode vehicles. Assessing the contribution of such systems when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. This paper descri...

Cities worldwide face problems like congestion or outward migration of businesses. The involved transport and land use interactions require innovative tools. The dynamic Land Use and Transport Interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) is part of a structured decision making process. Cities are seen as self organizing syste...

Presentation given at DISTILLATE Final workshop, London/GB

This paper describes three approaches to cordon location design, a judgemental approach, an optimisation approach based on Genetic Algorithms and a short-cut approach which lies between the two. The GA optimal single cordon generated benefits 80% higher than the best judgmental cordon for a simplified network of Edinburgh. The short cut approach wa...

The concept of integrated urban land-use and transport strategies has been promoted for more than a decade. In most cases, strategy appraisal is conducted by maximizing some measure of total welfare based on a cost–benefit analysis (CBA). In other cases, a multicriteria approach is adopted whereby monetized and nonmonetized effects are taken togeth...

The future energy supply and the projected scarcity of oil will play an ever-increasing role in the development of land-use and transport strategies within Europe. This article provides a scenario-based investigation using a world energy market model (POLES) linked to an EU-level model (ASTRA) and a regional land-use transport interaction model (MA...

Car parks are an essential piece of infrastructure associated with the road networks, yet commonly available traffic assignment models do not to explicitly integrate them into the modelling process. This research attempts to integrate the choice of car parks in urban areas into the travellers’ route choice and incorporates both the route and car pa...

This case study examines the proposed Edinburgh cordon charge scheme, which - despite earmarking revenues for use in the transport sector - was still defeated at a referendum. This research suggests that whilst earmarking revenues reduced the efficiency of the scheme compared to a first best scenario, with lower toll charges than optimal, the schem...

There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. These systems include cybercars, personal rapid transit, automated buses, advanced city cars and dual mode vehicles. Assessing the contribution of such systems when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. The range of potential...

Scarcity of oil supply is seen as one of the biggest future threats to our society. The recently finished EU-funded research project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) had the objective to develop, compare and assess possible scenarios for the transport system and the energy supply of the future...

This paper describes three approaches to cordon location design, a judgemental approach, an optimisation approach based on Genetic Algorithms and a short-cut approach which lies between the two. The GA optimal single cordon generated benefits 80% higher than the best judgmental cordon for a simplified network of Edinburgh. The short cut approach wa...

Recent research has shown that a substantial proportion of local authorities do not use models for strategy formulation or scheme design and appraisal. Models were perceived to be unable to reflect the range of policy instruments which local authorities now use; and were seen as too complex for local authority staff and stakeholders to use themselv...

Today cities worldwide face problems with their transport and land use system: congestion, deteriorating quality of life, outward migration of businesses, etc. The complex and time lagged interactions between transport and land use in combination with the ever increasing number of involved stakeholders require innovative decision support tools. The...