Simon Ferrier

• Principal Investigator at The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Effective satellite-based monitoring of ecosystem integrity or condition needs to address four key challenges: (a) context dependency; (b) alternative ecological states; (c) short-term temporal ecosystem dynamics; and (d) scarcity of reference data where ecosystems retain high levels of integrity. Here we present a typology, and outline strengths a...

Intact native forests under negligible large-scale human pressures (i.e. high-integrity forests) are critical for biodiversity conservation. However, high-integrity forests are declining worldwide due to deforestation and forest degradation. Recognizing the importance of high-integrity ecosystems (including forests), the Kunming-Montreal Global Bio...

The Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework lays out an ambitious set of goals and targets aimed at halting and reversing biodiversity loss. The extent of natural ecosystems has been selected as one of a small set of headline indicators against which countries will report progress under this framework. We evaluate the effectiveness with whic...

Global biodiversity is in decline, and businesses and society are being required to urgently create new operating models to ameliorate the crisis. Among the strategies proposed to do this, implementing the concept of nature positive has captured worldwide attention. Critical to its success will be effective collaboration between ecologists and busi...

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon seque...

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold...

Aim Biodiversity assessment and decisions rely on knowledge of the spatial distribution of species, yet most global biodiversity is inadequately represented by occurrence records. Efforts to improve our knowledge of biodiversity distribution include targeted taxon survey programmes aimed at generating records of new, or previously unrecorded, speci...

The forthcoming post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework aims to achieve a 15% net gain in the area, connectivity and integrity of natural systems by 2050. Here we focus on integrity using the summed plant foliage cover and native species richness of 6 plant functional groups compared to their empirically defined biodiversity benchmark. We extrapola...

The rate and extent of global biodiversity change is surpassing our ability to measure, monitor and forecast trends. We propose an interconnected worldwide system of observation networks — a global biodiversity observing system (GBiOS) — to coordinate monitoring worldwide and inform action to reach international biodiversity targets.

Global biodiversity is in decline and businesses are being asked to urgently create new operating models to ameliorate the crisis. Amongst the strategies proposed to do this, the development of an economy that is ‘nature-positive’ has captured worldwide attention. Publicised as biodiversity’s catch-all equivalent for a carbon net-zero future, organ...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-m...

As nations design a framework and a process for implementing the new goals and targets set by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the question on how to report on the successes and failures of policy implementation is becoming more salient. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential role of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), Essent...

Nitrogen (N) availability regulates the productivity of terrestrial plants and the ecological services they provide. There is evidence for both increasing and decreasing plant N availability in different biomes, but the data are fragmentary. How plant N availability responds to climate change, N deposition and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrati...

The diversity of terrestrial vascular plants plays a key role in maintaining the stability and productivity of ecosystems. Monitoring species compositional diversity across large spatial scales is challenging and time consuming. Airborne hyperspectral imaging has shown promise for measuring plant diversity remotely, but to operationalise these effo...

The diversity of terrestrial vascular plants plays a key role in maintaining the stability and productivity of ecosystems. Monitoring species compositional diversity across large spatial scales is challenging and time consuming. The advanced spectral and spatial specification of the recently launched DESIS (the DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectromete...

Context Management for positive biodiversity outcomes under a changing climate requires a shift of perspective relative to traditional conservation. Here we develop a repeatable indicator for measuring the capacity of landscapes to retain biodiversity under a range of plausible climate futures, as a function of the condition and spatial configurati...

Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integr...

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decision makers often rely on expert judgement to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of specialists. To improve understanding of the perspectives of thousands of bio...

Diversity of terrestrial plants plays a key role in maintaining a stable, healthy, and productive ecosystem. Though remote sensing has been seen as a promising and cost-effective proxy for estimating plant diversity, there is a lack of quantitative studies on how confidently plant diversity can be inferred from spaceborne hyperspectral data. In thi...

Understanding how biodiversity is changing over space and time is crucial for well‐informed decisions that help retain Earth's biological heritage over the long term. Tracking changes in biodiversity through ecosystem accounting provides this important information in a systematic way and readily enables linking to other relevant environmental and e...

Human impacts on the Earth’s biosphere are driving the global biodiversity crisis. Governments are preparing to agree on a set of actions intended to halt the loss of biodiversity and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. We provide evidence that the proposed actions can bend the curve for biodiversity, but only if these actions are implemented urg...

Aim Generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) is a powerful and unique method for characterizing and predicting beta diversity, the change in biodiversity over space, time and environmental gradients. The number of studies applying GDM is expanding, with increasing recognition of its value in improving our understanding of the drivers of biodiversi...

Context Management for positive biodiversity outcomes under a changing climate requires a shift of perspective relative to traditional conservation. Here we develop a repeatable indicator for measuring the capacity of landscapes to retain biodiversity under a range of plausible climate futures, as a function of the condition and spatial configurati...

EXPERT INPUT TO THE POST-2020 GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY FRAMEWORK: TRANSFORMATIVE ACTIONS ON ALL DRIVERS OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS ARE URGENTLY REQUIRED TO ACHIEVE THE GLOBAL GOALS BY 2050

Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains unc...

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive...

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the abse...

The background paper is intended to provide guidance to ecosystem accounts compilers on issues of spatial scale and aggregation in relation to biodiversity by clarifying the different concepts and providing options to address the measurement challenges. The paper is also intended to support compilers in engagement with biodiversity measurement expe...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy....

Signatory countries to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) are formulating goals and indicators through 2050 under the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Among the goals is increasing the integrity of ecosystems. The CBD is now seeking input toward a quantifiable definition of integrity and methods to track it globally. Here, w...

Context Ensembles of artificial neural network models can be trained to predict the continuous characteristics of vegetation such as the foliage cover and species richness of different plant functional groups. Objectives Our first objective was to synthesise existing site-based observations of native plant species to quantify summed percentage fol...

Signatory countries to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) are formulating indicators through 2030 under the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). These goals include increasing the integrity of natural ecosystems. However, the definition of integrity and methods for measuring it remain unspecified. Moreover, nations did not achie...

Biodiversity underpins the supply of ecosystem services essential for well-being and economic development, yet biodiversity loss continues at a substantial rate. Linking biodiversity indicators with national economic accounts provides a means of mainstreaming biodiversity into economic planning and monitoring processes. Here we examine the various...

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a co...

Measuring the status and trends of biodiversity is critical for making informed decisions about the conservation, management or restoration of species, habitats and ecosystems. Defining the reference state against which status and change are measured is essential. Typically, reference states describe historical conditions, yet historical conditions...

An important element of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Target 15 – i.e. to enhance “ecosystem resilience … through conservation and restoration” – remains largely unaddressed by existing indicators. We here develop an indicator addressing just one of many possible dimensions of ecosystem resilience, by focusing on the capacity of ec...

Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the researchers who participated in the scenarios and models expert group of the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform o...

Extensive anthropogenic activities driven by the demand for agriculture and forestry products have led to dramatic reductions in biodiversity worldwide and significant changes in the provisioning of ecosystem services. These trends are expected to continue in the future as the world continues to develop without much consideration of the role that n...

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and bi...

Measuring the status and trends of biodiversity is critical for making informed decisions about the conservation, management or restoration of species, habitats and ecosystems. Defining the reference state against which status and change are measured is essential. Typically, reference states describe historical conditions, yet historical conditions...

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with   targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Global biodiversity indicators are often derived by intersecting observed or projected changes in anthropogenic pressures with underlying patterns in the distribution of biodiversity. However these patterns are typically delineated at a coarser resolution than the key ecological processes shaping both land-use and biological distributions. The ‘Bio...

Essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) are designed to support the detection and quantification of biodiversity change and to define priorities in biodiversity monitoring. Unlike most primary observations of biodiversity phenomena, EBV products should provide information readily available to produce policy-relevant biodiversity indicators, ideally...

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fin...

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-us...

Scientists have repeatedly argued that transformative, multiscale global scenarios are needed as tools in the quest to halt the decline of biodiversity and achieve sustainability goals. As a first step towards achieving this, the Expert Group on Scenarios and Models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Serv...

The concepts ‘Ecological Integrity’ (EI) and ‘Biodiversity’ (living variation) are founding principles of ecologicallysustainable development under NSW environmental legislation, including NSW’s Biodiversity Conservation Act (2016). Ecological Integrity is a high-level goal for biodiversity conservation requiring integration of habitat repair and m...

Integrated high-resolution maps of carbon stocks and biodiversity that identify areas of potential co-benefits for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation can help facilitate the implementation of global climate and biodiversity commitments at local levels. However, the multi-dimensional nature of biodiversity presents a major chall...

Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiver...

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-res...

An important element of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 15 - i.e. to enhance "ecosystem resilience ... through conservation and restoration" - remains largely unaddressed by existing indicators. We here develop an indicator addressing just one of many possible dimensions of ecosystem resilience, by focusing on the capacity of...

Increasing attention is being given to understanding how intensifying human activities combine over space and time to influence persistence of biodiversity. Two types of biodiversity assessment in particular are attracting growing interest: one focused on understanding past‐to‐present change (environmental accounting) and another focused on underst...

The workshop drew on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-building exercise initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models, and other biodiversity modelling initiatives such as the ISIMIP project2 working on adding biodiversity to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios framework, the 'bending the curve' initiative3 l...

Reducing the rate of global biodiversity loss is a major challenge facing humanity¹, as the consequences of biological annihilation would be irreversible for humankind2–4. Although the ongoing degradation of ecosystems5,6 and the extinction of species that comprise them7,8 are now well-documented, little is known about the role that remaining wilde...

The workshop entitled ‘From visions to scenarios for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century’ was organized by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) expert group on scenarios and models and its technical support unit, and hosted by the NF-UBC Nereus Program, the Peter Wall Institute f...

Context: Conservation planning and land management are inherently spatial processes that are most effective when implemented over large areas. Objectives: Our objectives were to (i) use existing plot data to aggregate species inventories to growth forms and derive indicators of vegetation structure and composition and ii) generate spatially-explici...

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the int...

Given the magnitude and rate of ongoing climate change, the physiological capacity of species to tolerate extreme conditions will play a key role in influencing outcomes for biodiversity. It is also possible that species will respond to changes in climate by shifting their physiological tolerances, through genetic adaptation. How these processes in...

Species distributions and abundances are undergoing rapid changes worldwide. This highlights the significance of reliable, integrated information for guiding and assessing actions and policies aimed at managing and sustaining the many functions and benefits of species. Here we synthesize the types of data and approaches that are required to achieve...

Aim Observed, realized niche space often underestimates species’ physiological tolerances due to interactions with other species, dispersal constraints, and because some combinations of influential environmental factors do not currently exist in the real world. Conversely, correlative ecological niche models rely on the assumption that the range of...

Systematic conservation planning and Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are the two most widely used approaches for identifying important sites for biodiversity. However, there is limited advice for conservation policy makers and practitioners on when and how they should be combined. Here we provide such guidance, using insights from the recently develo...

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear...

In June 2018, PBL hosted a workshop for the IPBES expert group on Scenarios and Models. An important outcome was an inclusive framework for understanding how people relate to and value nature, and for building diverse positive nature future scenarios at different scales.

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts o...

Aim Spatial modelling can provide new understanding of patterns in biodiversity and help inform policy, planning and management decisions. However, for many taxa, in many regions, issues with currently available biological data curtail the application of spatial biodiversity models. Here we develop techniques to model spatial patterns of diverse su...

Aim A key ecological debate is whether ecosystem functions are distinctly influenced by biological diversity across broad scales. Although recent work has emphasized the importance of links between ecosystem functions and measures of ecological specialization as proxies of biodiversity, few studies have analysed macroecological relationships empiri...

Locating and protecting climate change refugia is important to conserving biodiversity with accelerating climate change. Comparative phylogeographic analysis provides an effective tool for locating such refugia, as long-term retention of one or more populations within a refugial landscape will generate unique genetic lineages. The ranges of the wes...

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts o...

Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity is expected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help design the pathways that sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach has so far been hampered by the complexity associated with combini...

Aim Conservation assessment and planning across extensive regions rely on the use of mapped or modelled surrogates because direct field‐based inventories of biodiversity rarely provide complete spatial coverage. Surrogates are assumed to represent spatial patterns in the distribution of biodiversity, yet the validity of this assumption is rarely ev...

Aim Global indicators of change in the state of terrestrial biodiversity are often derived by intersecting observed or projected changes in the distribution of habitat transformation, or of protected areas, with underlying patterns in the distribution of biodiversity. However the two main sources of data used to account for biodiversity patterns in...

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect broad-sense biodiversity - rather than particular taxa - at fine spatial and temporal resolution. The Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) reports how the average abundance of native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances before pronounced human impacts. BII is designed f...

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts o...

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how cl...

What is IPBES? IPBES—the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services—was established in 2012 to serve a role linking the science and knowledge about nature and nature’s benefits to people with policy and decision-making. IPBES has many expert groups, including one that focusses on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity of Ecosy...

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emp...

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emp...