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January 2014 - present
February 2007 - August 2008
September 2008 - December 2013
Education
October 2002 - June 2007
September 2001 - September 2002
October 1995 - July 1999
Publications
Publications (38)
This article is proposing an alternative approach to develop Intelligent Synthetic Composite Indicators (ISCI). The suggested approach utilizes Fuzzy Proximity Knowledge Mining technique to build the qualitative taxonomy initially, and then Fuzzy c-means is employed to form the new composite indicators. A fully worked application is presented. The...
In this paper, we investigate the co-incidence of inflation persistence and poverty in a small open economy, using disaggregated data for Ghana. We initially employ various fractional integration (FI) tests for (a) the existence of long-memory and (b) an estimate of the degree of persistence, where present, in regional and sectoral inflation. Furth...
Using fractional integration and GARCH modeling techniques, this paper investigates the dynamic properties of UK interest rates. We find evidence that, contrary to previous studies for the US and Canada, short rates are more nonstationary compared to longer rates. Further, differences in conditional volatility exist between rates of different matur...
Plans are far advanced to form a second monetary union, the West African Monetary Zone
(WAMZ), in Africa. While much attention is being placed on convergence criteria and
preparedness of the five aspiring member states, less attention is being placed on the extent
to which the dynamics of inflation in individual countries are (dis)similar. This pap...
This paper estimates the degree of real exchange rate misalignment in 12 CFA (Communauté Financière Africaine) franc zone countries over the period 1960--99. Allowing for contemporaneous error co-variances, due to observed cross-sectional dependence, we use seemingly unrelated regressions equation estimations to estimate the equilibrium real effect...
In this article, we analyse the evolution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) as a measure of competitiveness for a group of Central and Eastern European countries. To do this, we employ unit‐root tests with breaks and estimate the equations with structural breaks. Our results show that even though the REERs have become flatter, which means...
We examine the role of social capital in explaining the highly unequal regional distribution of firms’ carcinogenic releases. Our model predicts that social capital, by enabling information-sharing and coordination among community members, decreases carcinogenic releases. Our analysis, based on the US county-level releases derived from around 2 mil...
This paper investigates effects of contagion in sub‐Saharan African stock markets by examining both crisis and non‐crisis contingent theories. Specifically, the paper examines cross‐market linkages through heteroskedasticity bias‐adjusted correlation in asset returns and assesses the impact of regional macroeconomic fundamentals on stock market vol...
Social and economic infrastructure are essential for economic development. However, over the last three decades, many infrastructure projects in developing countries have failed. These failures raise the question as to the role of governments in the provision, and longevity, of much needed infrastructure. In this paper, we seek to examine the signi...
This paper investigates the impacts of conflicts on state-capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a region that has recorded a disproportionate number of armed conflicts and has a high presence in the Fragile States Index rankings. Individually, both conflicts and state-capacity are known to have important implications for economic development, which...
This paper investigates the relationships between the current account and several fundamentals, including the real exchange rate, government consumption, investment, openness, terms of trade and real income in the EU28 group of countries. A main feature of the study is that we also assess the relationships for two subgroups, the EU15 + Cyprus and M...
Substantial capital outflows across Europe following the 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis and 2010 European Sovereign Debt crisis raise concerns regarding potential capital outflows from the economies of Central and Eastern European countries. To shed light on country‐level factors that can mitigate crisis and potential capital outflows across these...
We examine the role of social capital in explaining the highly unequal regional distribution of carcinogenic waste releases in the US. Our model suggests that social capital, by enabling information sharing and coordination among community members, decreases firms’ toxic releases. Our empirical analysis is based on county-level toxic releases deriv...
In the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model literature, income elasticities (IEs) are considered as the crucial element determining a country's long-run growth rate. Although the extant literature accepts that technology matters for IEs magnitude, explanations linking technology and IEs magnitude are limited. In this paper, we make use of t...
In this paper we develop a framework for macro stress testing of China‘s banking system. Our estimates of
the correlations between banks‘ stability indicators and macroeconomic factors establish significant
relationships between the non-performing loan ratio and key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP
growth, the retail price index (RPI), the unem...
With the economic relevance of the relationships among emerging and frontier equity markets becoming increasingly significant, this paper investigates comovement among returns from six Latin American stock markets (Mexico [BMV], Brazil [BOVESPA], Chile [IPSA], Peru [IGBVL], Argentina [MERVAL], and Venezuela [IBVC]) and also with the U.S. S&P 500 Co...
In this paper, we aim to provide further insights into the importance of real oil price as
a determinant of real exchange rates for a pool of African countries. While this relationship
has been explored substantially for many industrialised economies, African countries have
received little attention. By means of cointegration techniques and nonline...
Positing the implementation of evidenced-based policies to manage the informal economy, our paper employs, in a novel way, the multiple-indicator, multiple-cause model and primary data, to identify the determinants of the Nigerian informal economy. Building on previous literature, relevant determinants of the informal economy were constructed from...
The random-walk hypothesis, vis-à-vis asset price, suggests that prices traded in a market cannot be predicted based on historical information. Employing unsecuritized UK commercial property returns, we analyse this hypothesis by investigating regime shifts or multiple changes in persistence in the series. Our results uncover regime shifts in both...
Empirical evidence on international yield comovement is sparse and lacks consensus. Employing a dynamic correlation approach, we show that during the recent global financial crisis, euro area yields have ceased to comove with the yields of the other international markets – Canada, UK and US. Some implications of our results are discussed.
Empirical evidence on international yield comovement is sparse and lacks consensus. Employing a dynamic correlation approach, we show that during the recent global financial crisis euro area yields have ceased to comove with the yields of the other international markets-Canada, UK and US. Some implications of our results are discussed.
Many synthetic composite indicators have been developed with the aim to measure micro- and macro-knowledge competitiveness, however, without any unified, easy to visualise and assessable forecasting capability, their benefits to decision makers remain limited. In this article, a new framework for forecasting knowledge based economy (KBE) competitiv...
Synthetic Composite Indicators (SCIs) are assessment tools, usually constructed to evaluate and contrast entities performance, by aggregating abstract issues in many areas such as economy, education, technology and innovation. Most SCIs are built using statistical measures, but the jury is still out regarding their accuracy and effectiveness. This...
In today's troubled economies, nations are competing in many aspects, including innovation and knowledge progress. Even though there are many composite indicators to measure knowledge and innovation at both micro and macro levels, benefits to decision makers still limited due to numerous progress indicators, without any unified, easy to visualize a...
This paper examines the inflation dynamics and common trends in the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the candidate countries of the embryonic West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). Using fractional integration and cointegration methods, we establish that significant heterogeneity in behavior exists among the countries. Shocks to inflation in Sierra...
http://www.forecasters.org/submissions/AlShamiAhmadISF2011.pdf
The aim of this paper is to design a unified knowledge economy competitiveness index using fuzzy clustering, to aggregate four of the most reputable and famous knowledge economy indicators into a unified index that reflects the overall rate of knowledge in an economy, to serve many purposes for the decision makers and foreign investors interested i...
In this paper, we aim to provide further insights into the importance of real oil price as a determinant of real exchange rates for a pool of African countries. While this relationship has been explored substantially for many industrialised economies, African countries have received little attention. By means of cointegration techniques and nonline...
This paper contributes to the discussion on the long term sustainability of the embryonic second monetary union in Africa, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). We analyse the level of economic and monetary integration in West Africa by analysing the degree of growth cycle synchronisation between five candidate countries over the past thirty years...
In this paper we aim at providing further insights into the determinants of real exchange rates for a pool of African countries. By means of cointegration techniques and nonlinear dynamics, we find that, for some of this countries, the real exchange rates are determined by shocks in the real price of oil.
In sub-Saharan Africa, where inflation persistence is likely to have deleterious welfare consequences, little attempt has been made to study this phenomenon. Using data over 1989:11-2002:09, this paper investigates persistence in (food and non-food) inflation for 12 Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) member states using fractional integration (F...
Failure to detect or account for structural changes in economic modelling can lead to misleading policy inferences, which can be perilous, especially for the more fragile economies of developing countries. Using three potential monetary policy instruments (Money Base, M0, and Reserve Money) for 13 member-states of the CFA Franc zone over the period...
This paper investigates the impacts and responses of macroeconomic shocks in some domestic economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1961-99; more specifically, it seeks to answer the question of whether there are any systematic differences in the responses of the CFA franc zones and the non-CFA franc zone countries to macroeconomic shocks. B...
In this paper we aim at providing further insights into the determinants of real exchange rates for a pool of African countries. By means of cointegration techniques and nonlinear dynamics, we find that, for some of this countries, the real exchange rates are determined by shocks in the real price of oil.