Silvana Mima

• PhD
• Senior Researcher at CNRS

This paper depicts the power system adequacy with respect to nuclear strategies by coupling investment with dispatching. The long-term energy model POLES simulates the Paris Agreement worldwide and is soft-linked with a power market model applied to France, EcoNUK. The nuclear flexibility is described by cycling frequency and amplitude, constrained...

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as th...

Global steel demand and production processes projections to 2070 using the energy system model POLES, with abatement options (electrification/recycling, direct reduction/hydrogen, carbon capture and sequestration), mitigation feedbacks on materials demand and senstivity studies

We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future cli...

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that i...

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential incr...

Previous works proposed a tool coupling models of a prospective outlook on long-term energy systems and a transmission grid investment and dispatch, focusing on the representation of the European transmission grid and its development on the horizon 2050–2100. In this paper, this prospective tool is further improved with the capacity to compute volt...

This paper presents a new power sector module, called EUTGRID, which is coupled with the long-term energy model POLES to deliver a suitable framework for considering grid aspects in energy modelling allowing for more distinct analysis of energy technology development and energy policy. It includes a mechanism of investment in transmission grids bas...

The study explores future development of biomass uses across different climate policy scenarios and under different assumptions of biomass supply availability and technology performances. Broad bioenergy technology portfolios and generations provide flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply a specific final energy mix and to remove carbon dioxide...

A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alt...

Although the cement industry emits around 6% of global CO 2 emissions, most global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) barely represent this industrial subsector or do not cover all important processes. This study, describes the state-of-the-art of cement modelling in IAMs, suggests possible improvements and discusses the impacts of these on energy...

Most prospective studies of the European power system rely on least-cost evaluations. This study assessed the influence of environmental impact indicators on prioritisation of ‘dispatchable’ technologies in the European energy mix up to 2050, compared with a purely cost-optimal system based on carbon tax incentives, without suppressing economic gro...

This study assesses the effects of deep electricity decarbonisation and shifts in the choice of power plant cooling technologies on global electricity water demand, using a suite of five integrated assessment models. We find that electricity sector decarbonisation results in co-benefits for water resources primarily due to the phase-out of water-in...

This preface introduces the special section on the assessment of wind and solar in global low-carbon energy scenarios. The special section documents the results of a coordinated research effort to improve the representation of variable renewable energies (VRE), including wind and solar power, in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and presents an ov...

Nuclear energy’s low variable cost makes it a base load technology, but variable renewable production has a higher priority on the grid, having a zero marginal cost. Therefore, variable renewable production will reduce load factors of dispatchable technologies. If not able to follow residual load, some more flexible technologies could be preferred...

In this paper, we demonstrate the role of electricity storage for the integration of high shares of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) in the long-term evolution of the power system. For this, a new electricity module is developed in POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems). It now takes into account the impacts of VRES on the...

A dynamic simulation of coupled supply and demand of energy, resources and nuclear reactors is done with the global model Prospective Outlook for Long Term Energy Supply (POLES) over this century. In this model, both electricity demand and uranium supply are not independent of the cost of all base load electricity suppliers. Uranium consuming Therm...

The paper presents a model-based approach describing the impacts of climate change on the European energy system. Existing analyses only estimate a limited range of climate impacts over a limited geographical area. Using the POLES model and the results from several climate models, the present paper quantifies the main impacts of climate change on t...

The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy policy objectives and debates in the res...

Energy efficiency and decarbonization are important elements of climate change mitigation. We draw on European mitigation scenarios from the EMF28 modeling exercise to decompose economy-wide and sectoral emissions into their main components. We utilize the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to gain insights into five effects: affluence, energy i...

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledg...

This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, r...

In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, countries like Germany and Japan have planned a phase-out of nuclear generation. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology has yet to become a commercially viable technology with little prospect of doing so without strong climate policy to spur development. The possibility of using renewable power ge...

Les trajectoires en cours pour l'énergie et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre engagent le monde vers une situation dangereuse en termes de changement global à l'horizon 2050, avec une perspective probable de hausse des températures comprise entre 3 et 4°C d'ici la fin du siècle. Malgré les efforts déployés depuis la conférence de Rio en 1992 po...

Proc. on CD Rom paper 11260

In the last decade, a few papers have analysed the consequences of achieving the greenhouse gas concentration levels necessary to maintain global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Most models and scenarios assume that future trends in global GDP will be similar to the growth experienced in the past century, w...

In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy,...

In this report, the third in this Series on health and climate change, we assess the changes in particle air pollution emissions and consequent eff ects on health that are likely to result from greenhouse-gas mitigation measures in the electricity generation sector in the European Union (EU), China, and India. We model the eff ect in 2030 of polici...

In this report, the third in this Series on health and climate change, we assess the changes in particle air pollution emissions and consequent effects on health that are likely to result from greenhouse-gas mitigation measures in the electricity generation sector in the European Union (EU), China, and India. We model the effect in 2030 of policies...

This paper presents the way we try to explore the most important impacts of climate change on the energy systems with the POLES model. We present the main features and adaptations of the POLES model with details on the treatment of the electricity demand in the residential and service sector, of the hydro and thermal electricity generation and ener...

The three pillars of EU energy policies, competitiveness through a unified market, sustainability and environmental protection and finally energy security are sometimes presented as conflicting and sometimes as complementary. In this paper, these dimensions of EU policies are explored through a set of scenarios simulated with the POLES model. In or...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

Rapport LEPII Enerdata au Ministère de l'Ecologie, de l'Energie, du Développement Durable et de l'Aménagement du Territoire

Document de travail dans le cadre du contrat de la FONDDRI (Fondation de recherche pour le développement durable et les relations internationales)

World reserves of natural gas are abundant and expected to increase up to 2050. World gas production is projected to more than double between 2000 and 2050. However, regional disparities in gas reserves and production costs are expected to modify the regional gas supply pattern in 2050: about half of the total gas production will originate from the...

The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a proces...

Ce papier vise à analyser les interactions entre les politiques de stabilisation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère et les fondamentaux de la scène pétrolière mondiale, à partir de simulations du modèle POLES. La « valeur du carbone » est l’artifice de modélisation qui synthétise l’intensité des politiques climatiques. Ell...

Le projet HyFrance est le projet d'application française des modèles technico et socio-économiques1 utilisés dans le projet européen HyWays qui a démarré le 30 mars 2004. Le projet HyWays vise à développer, sur une période de 36 mois, une "roadmap" européenne de l'hydrogène énergie, c'est-à-dire un ensemble de recommandations visant à favoriser l'i...

The paper analyses the probable position of major continental infrastructures for gas trade within Asia in relation to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects which are foreseen as advantageous in the future for supplying energy to the Asian markets. Siberia and countries of the Caspian Basin and Central Asia are becoming steadily more reliable as...

The Kyoto Protocol envisage the setting-up of flexibility mechanisms allowing Annex B countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency. The current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for Annex B countries an...

This paper provides some insight on the issues raised by the Greenhouse Gas Tradable Emission Permit System (TEPS) proposed in a Green Paper of the Euro- pean Commission in 2000. It is based on the results of the POLES model for the simulation of the Marginal Abatement Cost curves of the EU countries and on the ASPEN software for the assessment of...

This paper provides some insight on the issues raised by the Tradable Emission Permit System (TEPS) pro-posed in a Green Paper of the EU in 2000. It is based on the results of the POLES model for the simulation of the Marginal Abatement Cost curves of the EU countries and on the ASPEN software for the assess-ment of the corresponding structure of p...