Silke Übelmesser

Friedrich Schiller University Jena | FSU · Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Using data from two representative and large-scale population surveys with more than 4000 participants, we investigate the effect of randomized priming interventions on attitudes towards immigrants. We document robust null effects of these interventions under two experimental settings, across two surveys and for a range of specifications. Our resul...

This study provides the first attempt to evaluate whether a logit early warning system (EWS) for systemic banking crises can produce better predictions when political indicators are used alongside traditional macro-financial indicators. Based on a dataset covering 32 advanced economies for the period 1975-2017, we show that the inclusion of politic...

Demographic change has an impact on pay-as-you-go pension systems. To maintain their financial sustainability, reforms are necessary, but often lack public support. Based on representative survey data from Germany, we conduct a survey experiment which allows investigating whether salience of or information about demographic change enhances preferen...

To address the distributional consequences of high inflation rates, measures are needed that target those most in need without distorting prices. The function of the price as scarcity signal is important to encourage energy saving. Direct price subsidies such as the fuel price rebate, on the contrary, are not helpful. In the medium term, supply-sid...

We investigate the link between biased beliefs about immigrants, economic concerns and policy preferences. Conducting representative survey experiments with more than 8000 respondents, we first document substantial biases in respondents' beliefs about the immigrant population in various domains. Exposure to different types of signals about immigran...

This paper focuses on foreign language learning as human capital investment or consumption. We apply the human capital investment framework to foreign language learning and enlarge it by the consumption motive. Based on a novel dataset of close to 5000 language course participants in 14 countries worldwide, we estimate individual and country-level...

International students are an important factor for the German labour market in coping with demographic change and the shortage of skilled workers. However, their drop-out rates are still high. In this study, we investigate the influence of social involvement on the academic progress of international students. We measure involvement in three non-aca...

We carried out two multinational surveys to analyze aspirations and intentions to emigrate, and how these are linked to each other. One survey covered language course participants in 14 countries, and another students in 6 countries. We identify two groups that have been largely neglected in previous research on migration aspirations and intentions...

We investigate the link between biased beliefs about immigrants, economic concerns and policy preferences. Conducting representative survey experiments with more than 8000 respondents, we first document substantial biases in respondents’ beliefs about the immigrant population in various domains. Exposure to different types of signals about immigran...

This article investigates the macro-level drivers of adult-age language learning with a focus on migration based on a new dataset on German language learning in 77 countries (including Germany) for 1992–2006. Fixed-effects regressions show that language learning abroad is strongly associated with immigration from countries of the European Union and...

We study the determinants of the use of profit sharing schemes (PSS) by private companies, exploiting a firm-level dataset for Germany. First, our results from static regression models replicate studies for the U.S. which report a positive correlation between R&D activity and PSS use. Similar to those studies, we find that a firm’s turnover is stro...

This paper analyzes the relationship between individuals’ attitudes towards risk and their decision to migrate. We consider migration in the United States across Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) between 1997‐2015, based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Using random‐effects specifications, we find that being relatively mo...

Countries compete for young talents to alleviate skilled-labor shortage. International students, who stay after graduation, allow host countries to overcome those challenges. This study investigates the factors associated with international students’ intention to stay or to go after graduation. In contrast to the existing literature, this analysis...

We conduct a survey experiment on the effect of information provision on attitudes towards immigration in Germany. The focus lies on two theory-based economic channels, labor market and welfare state concerns, and immigration policy preferences. Using probability-based representative survey data, we experimentally vary the quantity and the type of...

So far, the effect of rankings on university choice has mostly been explored for Anglo-Saxon countries with a focus on domestic students. Using data from a medium-sized German university, we study the importance of rankings for domestic and international students. Results from an exploratory factor analysis suggest that the university position in r...

In the last years, there has been a shift toward more private financing of higher education in many countries. At the same time, student mobility has substantially increased. This paper analyzes in a two-region model the impact of student mobility on region-specific higher education quality with private funding. Individuals decide whether and where...

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between immigrants and crime using panel data for 391 German administrative districts between 2003 and 2016. Employing different standard panel estimation methods, we show that there is no positive association between the immigrant rate and the crime rate. We assess the robustness of this result by cons...

This paper analyses the effect of the presence of German language learning opportunities abroad on migration to Germany. We use information on the presence of the Goethe-Institut (GI), which is an association that promotes German culture and offers language courses and standardized exams. Our unique dataset covers 69 countries for the period 1977 t...

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between immigrants and crime using panel data for 391 German administrative districts between 2003 and 2016. Employing different standard panel estimation methods, we show that there is no positive association between the immigrant rate and the crime rate. We assess the robustness of this result by cons...

The aim of this paper is to identify migration patterns of the highly educated, placing special emphasis on imbalances across regions. For this, we use data from a representative and longitudinal graduate survey in Germany with information about the work and migration history during the first 5 years after graduation. With regional funding of highe...

The Goethe-Institut (GI) is a German association which offers cultural events, language courses and standardized language exams all over the world. From its annual reports, we constructed three datasets. The first dataset describes the regional distribution of the GI from 1965-2014, the opening and closing years of all institutes and whether they p...

This article presents a comprehensive overview of German language learning for more than 100 countries (including Germany) over a period of 50 years. We provide new and unique data from the Goethe Institut, a German cultural institute, which offers language courses and standardized exams. These data contain information about the supply of language...

We ask which migration policy a developed country will choose when its objective is to attain the optimal skill composition of the country's workforce, and when the policy menu consists of an entry fee and a quota. We compare these two policies under the assumptions that individuals are heterogeneous in their skill level as well as in their skill t...

Demographic and technological changes have boosted demand for a highly skilled workforce. The skill shortage, which is a topic of high relevance in many European countries, has led to a widespread debate on appropriate policy responses. These policies include measures to increase female labour force participation, improve the qualification of the p...

The Goethe-Institut (GI) is a German association which offers cultural events, language courses and standardized language exams all over the world. From its annual reports, we constructed three datasets. • The first dataset describes the regional distribution of the GI from 1965 - 2014, the opening and closing years of all institutes and whether t...

It is a truism to say that migrants' language skills often decide how successfully they are able to integrate. But what about the situation prior to migration? Do people who already know German leave their home countries more quickly and more willingly? And what difference does it make when and where they learned the language? Empirical data sheds...

Using panel data from a German graduate survey, we analyse determinants of graduates’ decisions to out-migrate from a region and how the importance of these determinants varies over job changes. Estimating Heckman and fixed-effects Heckman selection models, we find that the propensity to out-migrate significantly varies with graduates’ migration ex...

Was macht es Menschen leichter, ihre Heimat zu verlassen und ihr Heil und Glück in der Ferne zu suchen? Und was hindert sie daran? Dass Sprache und Sprachkenntnisse zu den wichtigsten Anreizen oder aber Barrieren einer jeden Migration gehören – diesem Zusammenhang geht der dritte Teil unserer Serie nach. Dabei steht freilich nicht das Deutsch-Könne...

This paper presents a novel political-economy perspective on the composition of social expenditures. We take into account the possibility that institutions are weak, i.e. there is corruption, and analyze how this affects the government’s choice between cash and in-kind transfers. Our results show that the share of in-kind transfers (e.g. basic heal...

In higher education systems that are partly tax funded, a country might not be willing to subsidize the education of international students who might leave after graduation. This paper analyzes how student migration affects governmental decisions regarding the private funding share of higher education for 22 OECD countries for the period of 2000–20...

For a closed economy, we analyze the relation between the quality of higher education and the number of students. Within a two-period general-equilibrium model, we derive the optimal education policy – i.e., quality of and access restrictions to higher education – with observable ability, and contrast this with a setting where ability is unobservab...

With the general premise that cross-border mobility affects the public provision and financing of higher education, this chapter compares an old and a new paradigm. In the old paradigm, students remain in their country of birth for education and later career. Public financing of higher education with no or little private contribution is, therefore,...

Generally, privatization of state-owned enterprises is believed to enhance economic efficiency and competitiveness and to improve the overall economic performance of a country. So, can there be too much privatization? We show that this depends on the political objectives that are pursued with a privatization policy. We study two types of government...

There is a dearth of research on the determinants of in-kind redistribution. Using dynamic panel data estimations for 32 OECD countries, we show that the in-kind share of social benefits is lower under left-wing governments. This effect is weakened when left-wing governments respond to inflation by increasing the share of in-kind transfers.

We study voting over higher-education finance in an economy with two regions and two separated labor markets. Households differ in their financial endowment and their children's ability. Nonstudents are immobile. Students decide where to study; they return home after graduation with exogenous probability. The voters of the two regions decide on whe...

This paper analyzes how integrated labor markets affect the financing of higher education. For this, we employ a general-equilibrium model with overlapping generations and individuals who differ in their abilities. At the first stage, governments can choose the quality of education and the financing system. At the second stage, individuals make the...

This paper identifies the migration policies that emerge when both the sending country and the receiving country wield power to set migration quotas, when controlling migration is costly, and when the decision how much human capital to acquire depends, among other things, on the migration policies. The paper analyzes the endogenous formation of bil...

Building on a new data set which is constructed from a combination of national micro‐data bases, we highlight differences in the structure of migrants to four countries – namely, France, Germany, the UK and the US – which receive a substantial share of all immigrants to the OECD world. Looking at immigrants by source country, we illustrate the impo...

In this note, we show that labour market integration can be a double-edged sword. In the presence of local human capital externalities, integration and the ensuing agglomeration of skilled labour can cause a decline in human capital and the total wage sum (net of education costs). In particular, integration depresses the incentives for some talente...

In the 1990s, competition among health insurance funds (‘sickness funds’) was introduced in Germany. As one means of competition, free choice of initial health funds and subsequent switching between them was made available to all insured. Since then, the number of funds has decreased substantially, and funds have had to engage in competitive strate...

We analyse how institutional and political decisions are intertwined. Citizens who differ in their mobility and ability vote first on labour market integration and afterwards on education policy. The institutional decision on integration influences the succeeding education policy. More surprisingly, the prospect of voting on education policy also a...

In this chapter we study the selection policy of incoming migrant workers when the receiving country’s own welfare guides the formation of policies, when selection is made under asymmetric information, and when workers differ in terms of their level of human capital. Informational asymmetry arises when employers in the receiving country (in contras...

Recent research has identified conditions under which migration of human capital (skilled workers) from a developing (sending) country to a developed (receiving) country enhances human capital formation and improves wellbeing within the sending country (Mountford, 1997; Stark, Helmenstein, and Prskawetz, 1997, 1998; Stark and Wang, 2002; Fan and St...

Die Auswanderung von in Deutschland ausgebildeten und beschäftigten Bürgern hat sowohl bevölkerungsstatistische und arbeitsmarktrelevante als auch fiskalpolitische Implikationen. Anhand zweier exemplarischer Auswanderer - ein Facharbeiter und eine Ärztin - werden die entsprechenden fiskalischen Bilanzen mittels Beispielsrechnungen erstellt. Dabei w...

Mobile students and graduates react to the institutional framework of higher education and on their turn induce changes in governmental policies. In this article, we are interested in how governmental decisions about the financial regime and the quality level of higher education interact with individual incentives to invest in higher education in c...

Building on a new data set which is combined from national micro-data bases, we highlight differences in the structure of migrants to four countries, viz. France, Germany, the UK and the US, which receive a substantial share of all immigrants to the OECD world. Looking at immigrants by source countries, we illustrate the important role of distance,...

For a long time, migration has been subject to intensive economic research. Nevertheless, empirical evidence regarding the determinants of migration still appears to be incomplete. In this paper, we analyze the effects of socio-economic and institutional determinants, especially labor-market institutions, on migrants' choices. Based on a large data...

This paper analyzes how mobility of post-graduate skilled workers and students across different countries affects the quality level of higher education and the way education is financed. We start by examining a closed economy. In the presence of imperfect credit markets the education level with pure fee-financing is lower than the optimal level. If...

This article analyses public debt differences across industrial countries with a special focus on Germany on the basis of political economy approaches. We are interested in identifying the empirically relevant theories in order to draw conclusions for Germany based on international differences in the preferences of the political agents and/or i...

This paper investigates the impact of emigration on the political choice of the size of the welfare state. Mobility has two countervailing effects: the political participation effect and the tax base effect. With emigration, the composition of the constituency changes. This increases the political influence of the less mobile part of the population...

This paper analyzes how mobility of students across different countries affects the way higher education is financed. We start by examining a closed economy. If the economy is in the steady-state, we find that the optimal level of education in a fee-financed system is effi- cient while the level of education in a tax-financed system is sub-optimall...

The demographic evolution - in particular rising life-expectancies - as well as the technological progress in the health sector are largely seen as being among the main causes for the increase in health expenditures during the last decades. As a reaction to these developments, competition among public sickness funds was introduced in Germany in the...

This study analyses the qualitative aspects of emigration from Germany, taking account of economic and non-economic reasons. The reported willingness to emigrate from Germany in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) is explained for men and women by three groups of variables: individual characteristics, household characteristics and regional char...

Without Abstract

Are there still opportunities for welfare-improving reforms in unfunded pension systems? To answer this question, we analyze the intertemporal structure of implicit taxes in pay-as-you-go pension schemes. We demonstrate that these tax rates are declining over the life cycle. This timing is optimal if periodic wage elasticities of labor supply are i...

We investigate the interaction between migration opportunities, the incentive to form human capital, the formation of migration policies, and welfare. A positive probability of migration was shown to induce individuals to acquire additional human capital, with consequent increases in per capita human capital and welfare in the sending country. We s...

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the I(1), the conditional I(1), as well as the I(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting approximation is flexible, easy to implement and more accu...

The impending demographic crisis calls for fundamental reforms of old-age security. In a democracy, however, reforms require the support of the majority. A reform that aims at reducing the size of unfunded pension systems is supported by the young and opposed by the old. As long as the young have the majority, this reform is feasible; as soon as so...

An impending demographic crisis in Germany calls for fundamental reforms of the pension system. In a democracy, however, reforms require the support of the majority of the electorate. To determine whether the majority is in favour of reforms of the pension system, we calculate for each year the “indifference age” as the age of the cohort that is no...

Not sufficiently harmonised national pension systems within the European Union distort the allocation of labour and endanger redistributive activities. This paper identifies the most decentralised level of harmonisation which guarantees efficient allocation and enables redistribution. For this, we build on theoretical results from the literature to...

In closed economies, human capital investment faces a hold-up problem of excessive redistributive taxation. Increased international labor mobility, however, changes the constraints which affect optimal education and tax policy. We show that in a non-altruistic, gerontocratic world, investments in human capital which increase the mobility of the you...

This paper investigates the inter-temporal structure of implicit taxes that arise in unfunded pension schemes. We demonstrate that these tax rates are declining over the life cycle. Using German micro-data for men and married women we estimate periodic wage elasticities of labour supply in order to check the second-best properties of this timing of...

The Czech Republic is facing a population ageing phenomenon. In addition, its demographic structure is expected to change dramatically over the next 50 years. We apply a stylised overlapping generation model in order to analyse the potential effects of the expected demographic changes on aggregate economic performance taking into account alternativ...

Die Deutschen werden immer älter und haben immer weniger Kinder. Die Verschiebung der Altersverteilung macht es immer schwieriger, die Rentenansprüche zu befriedigen, und sie verringert das Stimmgewicht der Jungen im demokratischen Entscheidungsprozess. Der Artikel zeigt, dass derzeit noch eine strategische Mehrheit für Rentenreformen vorhanden ist...

In the presence of a gerontocracy where the immobile old generation has the power to levy taxes on the mobile young generation, this paper focuses on how the integration policy is optimally determined by a constitutional assembly such that the mobility of the young counteracts this gerontocratic power and national welfare is maximised. Some conclus...

According to conventional wisdom, labour market integration promotes overall e¢ - ciency. It enables mobile labour to get employed where it is most productive. In a world with scale economies and human capital externalities, mobility also fosters agglomeration of skill-intensive industries, thereby further enhancing aggregate income. In this paper...

28 Der demographische Wandel weist in Deutschland, in den Staaten der EU-15 und in den wichtigsten weiteren OECD- Ländern fast ausnahmslos einen klaren, gemeinsamen Trend auf: Die vorliegen- den Projektionen zeigen für die nächs- ten Jahrzehnte eine starke Alterung der Bevölkerung an. Aller Voraussicht nach wird dieser Prozess in den dreißiger und...

It has been shown that a (controlled) opening up of developing countries to out- migration may be conducive to welfare improvements both for migrants and for non- migrants. This brain gain result rests on the higher incentive to invest in human capital promoted by the outside option and on the ability of the sending country to set the optimal proba...