Silke Übelmesser

• Prof. Dr.
• Professor at Friedrich Schiller University Jena

Attitudes toward immigrants play a crucial role in voting behavior. Such attitudes are shaped by individual characteristics, but also by the environment. This paper examines the role of regional factors in Germany. We use individual‐level survey data and district‐level administrative data. Specifically, we examine regional differences in economic g...

We study beliefs about wealth inequality and preferences for wealth redistribution. For this, we conduct a large-scale online survey in Germany. First, we analyze how well participants are informed about the German wealth distribution and their position in it. Second, we investigate how preferences for wealth redistribution are affected by an infor...

We analyze perceptions of international applicability of one’s education and migration aspirations and intentions among university students in Czechia, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, and Spain. Students in law perceive their education as least internationally applicable. Perceived international applicability strongly predicts mig...

Demographic change is one of Germany's most pressing social and economic challenges. Using data from a representative telephone survey, we analyze how well informed respondents are about the magnitude of demographic change and what factors influence the accuracy of their beliefs. We find that respondents tend to overestimate the old-age dependency...

We analyze how institutional and political decisions are intertwined. Citizens who differ in their mobility and ability vote first on labor market integration and afterwards on education policy. the institutional decision on integration influences the succeeding education policy. More surprisingly, the prospect of voting on education policy also af...

We conduct a survey experiment with four thousand German respondents and provide information on two measures of gender inequality, separately or jointly: the gender gap in earnings and the gender gap in pensions. We analyze the effect of information provision on respondents' views on the importance of reducing gender inequality and on their agreeme...

Attitudes toward immigrants play a crucial role in voting behaviour and political decisionmaking. Such attitudes are shaped by individual characteristics, but the regional environment may also be important. This paper examines how individual attitudes toward immigrants are related to the economic, political, and social environment. We use individua...

We examine the relationship between beliefs about and attitudes towards immigrants and intergroup contact between natives and migrants in eastern Germany, a region characterized by anti-immigrant sentiment. Using probability-based survey data, we randomly vary respondents' access to a signal about the true size of the immigrant population in the re...

Laut einer repräsentativen Umfrage zur Altersvorsorge in Deutschland waren die meisten Menschen nur in geringem Maße von finanziellen Einbußen durch die Coronakrise betroffen. Ein kleiner Teil musste jedoch erhebliche Einbußen mit Auswirkungen auf die Altersvorsorge hinnehmen. Dies gilt vor allem für Personen in Ostdeutschland und für jüngere Befra...

The paper empirically analyses the causal relationship between immigrants and crime using data for German administrative districts between 2008 and 2019. Before the refugee crisis (2008–2014), an increase in the current share of immigrants increased the total crime rate. In contrast, the effect was negative (or insignificant) during and after the r...

We analyze perceptions of international applicability of one's education and migration aspirations and intentions among university students in Czechia, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, and Spain. Students in law perceive their education least internationally applicable. Perceived international applicability strongly predicts migrat...

Using data from two representative and large-scale population surveys with more than 4000 participants, we investigate the effect of randomized priming interventions on attitudes towards immigrants. We document robust null effects of these interventions under two experimental settings, across two surveys and for a range of specifications. Our resul...

This study provides the first attempt to evaluate whether a logit early warning system (EWS) for systemic banking crises can produce better predictions when political indicators are used alongside traditional macro-financial indicators. Based on a dataset covering 32 advanced economies for the period 1975-2017, we show that the inclusion of politic...

Demographic change has an impact on pay-as-you-go pension systems. To maintain their financial sustainability, reforms are necessary, but often lack public support. Based on representative survey data from Germany, we conduct a survey experiment which allows investigating whether salience of or information about demographic change enhances preferen...

To address the distributional consequences of high inflation rates, measures are needed that target those most in need without distorting prices. The function of the price as scarcity signal is important to encourage energy saving. Direct price subsidies such as the fuel price rebate, on the contrary, are not helpful. In the medium term, supply-sid...

We investigate the link between biased beliefs about immigrants, economic concerns and policy preferences. Conducting representative survey experiments with more than 8000 respondents, we first document substantial biases in respondents' beliefs about the immigrant population in various domains. Exposure to different types of signals about immigran...

This paper focuses on foreign language learning as human capital investment or consumption. We apply the human capital investment framework to foreign language learning and enlarge it by the consumption motive. Based on a novel dataset of close to 5000 language course participants in 14 countries worldwide, we estimate individual and country-level...

International students are an important factor for the German labour market in coping with demographic change and the shortage of skilled workers. However, their drop-out rates are still high. In this study, we investigate the influence of social involvement on the academic progress of international students. We measure involvement in three non-aca...

We carried out two multinational surveys to analyze aspirations and intentions to emigrate, and how these are linked to each other. One survey covered language course participants in 14 countries, and another students in 6 countries. We identify two groups that have been largely neglected in previous research on migration aspirations and intentions...

We investigate the link between biased beliefs about immigrants, economic concerns and policy preferences. Conducting representative survey experiments with more than 8000 respondents, we first document substantial biases in respondents’ beliefs about the immigrant population in various domains. Exposure to different types of signals about immigran...

This article investigates the macro-level drivers of adult-age language learning with a focus on migration based on a new dataset on German language learning in 77 countries (including Germany) for 1992–2006. Fixed-effects regressions show that language learning abroad is strongly associated with immigration from countries of the European Union and...

We study the determinants of the use of profit sharing schemes (PSS) by private companies, exploiting a firm-level dataset for Germany. First, our results from static regression models replicate studies for the U.S. which report a positive correlation between R&D activity and PSS use. Similar to those studies, we find that a firm’s turnover is stro...

This paper analyzes the relationship between individuals’ attitudes towards risk and their decision to migrate. We consider migration in the United States across Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) between 1997‐2015, based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Using random‐effects specifications, we find that being relatively mo...

Countries compete for young talents to alleviate skilled-labor shortage. International students, who stay after graduation, allow host countries to overcome those challenges. This study investigates the factors associated with international students’ intention to stay or to go after graduation. In contrast to the existing literature, this analysis...

We conduct a survey experiment on the effect of information provision on attitudes towards immigration in Germany. The focus lies on two theory-based economic channels, labor market and welfare state concerns, and immigration policy preferences. Using probability-based representative survey data, we experimentally vary the quantity and the type of...

So far, the effect of rankings on university choice has mostly been explored for Anglo-Saxon countries with a focus on domestic students. Using data from a medium-sized German university, we study the importance of rankings for domestic and international students. Results from an exploratory factor analysis suggest that the university position in r...

In the last years, there has been a shift toward more private financing of higher education in many countries. At the same time, student mobility has substantially increased. This paper analyzes in a two-region model the impact of student mobility on region-specific higher education quality with private funding. Individuals decide whether and where...

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between immigrants and crime using panel data for 391 German administrative districts between 2003 and 2016. Employing different standard panel estimation methods, we show that there is no positive association between the immigrant rate and the crime rate. We assess the robustness of this result by cons...

This paper analyses the effect of the presence of German language learning opportunities abroad on migration to Germany. We use information on the presence of the Goethe-Institut (GI), which is an association that promotes German culture and offers language courses and standardized exams. Our unique dataset covers 69 countries for the period 1977 t...

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between immigrants and crime using panel data for 391 German administrative districts between 2003 and 2016. Employing different standard panel estimation methods, we show that there is no positive association between the immigrant rate and the crime rate. We assess the robustness of this result by cons...

The aim of this paper is to identify migration patterns of the highly educated, placing special emphasis on imbalances across regions. For this, we use data from a representative and longitudinal graduate survey in Germany with information about the work and migration history during the first 5 years after graduation. With regional funding of highe...

The Goethe-Institut (GI) is a German association which offers cultural events, language courses and standardized language exams all over the world. From its annual reports, we constructed three datasets. The first dataset describes the regional distribution of the GI from 1965-2014, the opening and closing years of all institutes and whether they p...

This article presents a comprehensive overview of German language learning for more than 100 countries (including Germany) over a period of 50 years. We provide new and unique data from the Goethe Institut, a German cultural institute, which offers language courses and standardized exams. These data contain information about the supply of language...

We ask which migration policy a developed country will choose when its objective is to attain the optimal skill composition of the country's workforce, and when the policy menu consists of an entry fee and a quota. We compare these two policies under the assumptions that individuals are heterogeneous in their skill level as well as in their skill t...

Demographic and technological changes have boosted demand for a highly skilled workforce. The skill shortage, which is a topic of high relevance in many European countries, has led to a widespread debate on appropriate policy responses. These policies include measures to increase female labour force participation, improve the qualification of the p...

The Goethe-Institut (GI) is a German association which offers cultural events, language courses and standardized language exams all over the world. From its annual reports, we constructed three datasets. • The first dataset describes the regional distribution of the GI from 1965 - 2014, the opening and closing years of all institutes and whether t...

It is a truism to say that migrants' language skills often decide how successfully they are able to integrate. But what about the situation prior to migration? Do people who already know German leave their home countries more quickly and more willingly? And what difference does it make when and where they learned the language? Empirical data sheds...

Using panel data from a German graduate survey, we analyse determinants of graduates’ decisions to out-migrate from a region and how the importance of these determinants varies over job changes. Estimating Heckman and fixed-effects Heckman selection models, we find that the propensity to out-migrate significantly varies with graduates’ migration ex...

Was macht es Menschen leichter, ihre Heimat zu verlassen und ihr Heil und Glück in der Ferne zu suchen? Und was hindert sie daran? Dass Sprache und Sprachkenntnisse zu den wichtigsten Anreizen oder aber Barrieren einer jeden Migration gehören – diesem Zusammenhang geht der dritte Teil unserer Serie nach. Dabei steht freilich nicht das Deutsch-Könne...

This paper presents a novel political-economy perspective on the composition of social expenditures. We take into account the possibility that institutions are weak, i.e. there is corruption, and analyze how this affects the government’s choice between cash and in-kind transfers. Our results show that the share of in-kind transfers (e.g. basic heal...

In higher education systems that are partly tax funded, a country might not be willing to subsidize the education of international students who might leave after graduation. This paper analyzes how student migration affects governmental decisions regarding the private funding share of higher education for 22 OECD countries for the period of 2000–20...

For a closed economy, we analyze the relation between the quality of higher education and the number of students. Within a two-period general-equilibrium model, we derive the optimal education policy – i.e., quality of and access restrictions to higher education – with observable ability, and contrast this with a setting where ability is unobservab...

With the general premise that cross-border mobility affects the public provision and financing of higher education, this chapter compares an old and a new paradigm. In the old paradigm, students remain in their country of birth for education and later career. Public financing of higher education with no or little private contribution is, therefore,...

Analyses of the interrelated mobility of students and the highly skilled that consider its implications for fiscal policy, higher education financing, and economic development. The mobility of students in developed countries has dramatically increased over the last fifty years. Students do not necessarily remain in their countries of origin for hig...

Generally, privatization of state-owned enterprises is believed to enhance economic efficiency and competitiveness and to improve the overall economic performance of a country. So, can there be too much privatization? We show that this depends on the political objectives that are pursued with a privatization policy. We study two types of government...

There is a dearth of research on the determinants of in-kind redistribution. Using dynamic panel data estimations for 32 OECD countries, we show that the in-kind share of social benefits is lower under left-wing governments. This effect is weakened when left-wing governments respond to inflation by increasing the share of in-kind transfers.

We study voting over higher-education finance in an economy with two regions and two separated labor markets. Households differ in their financial endowment and their children's ability. Nonstudents are immobile. Students decide where to study; they return home after graduation with exogenous probability. The voters of the two regions decide on whe...

This paper analyzes how integrated labor markets affect the financing of higher education. For this, we employ a general-equilibrium model with overlapping generations and individuals who differ in their abilities. At the first stage, governments can choose the quality of education and the financing system. At the second stage, individuals make the...

This paper identifies the migration policies that emerge when both the sending country and the receiving country wield power to set migration quotas, when controlling migration is costly, and when the decision how much human capital to acquire depends, among other things, on the migration policies. The paper analyzes the endogenous formation of bil...

Building on a new data set which is constructed from a combination of national micro‐data bases, we highlight differences in the structure of migrants to four countries – namely, France, Germany, the UK and the US – which receive a substantial share of all immigrants to the OECD world. Looking at immigrants by source country, we illustrate the impo...

In this note, we show that labour market integration can be a double-edged sword. In the presence of local human capital externalities, integration and the ensuing agglomeration of skilled labour can cause a decline in human capital and the total wage sum (net of education costs). In particular, integration depresses the incentives for some talente...

In the 1990s, competition among health insurance funds (‘sickness funds’) was introduced in Germany. As one means of competition, free choice of initial health funds and subsequent switching between them was made available to all insured. Since then, the number of funds has decreased substantially, and funds have had to engage in competitive strate...

We analyse how institutional and political decisions are intertwined. Citizens who differ in their mobility and ability vote first on labour market integration and afterwards on education policy. The institutional decision on integration influences the succeeding education policy. More surprisingly, the prospect of voting on education policy also a...

In this chapter we study the selection policy of incoming migrant workers when the receiving country’s own welfare guides the formation of policies, when selection is made under asymmetric information, and when workers differ in terms of their level of human capital. Informational asymmetry arises when employers in the receiving country (in contras...

Recent research has identified conditions under which migration of human capital (skilled workers) from a developing (sending) country to a developed (receiving) country enhances human capital formation and improves wellbeing within the sending country (Mountford, 1997; Stark, Helmenstein, and Prskawetz, 1997, 1998; Stark and Wang, 2002; Fan and St...

Die Auswanderung von in Deutschland ausgebildeten und beschäftigten Bürgern hat sowohl bevölkerungsstatistische und arbeitsmarktrelevante als auch fiskalpolitische Implikationen. Anhand zweier exemplarischer Auswanderer - ein Facharbeiter und eine Ärztin - werden die entsprechenden fiskalischen Bilanzen mittels Beispielsrechnungen erstellt. Dabei w...

Mobile students and graduates react to the institutional framework of higher education and on their turn induce changes in governmental policies. In this article, we are interested in how governmental decisions about the financial regime and the quality level of higher education interact with individual incentives to invest in higher education in c...

Building on a new data set which is combined from national micro-data bases, we highlight differences in the structure of migrants to four countries, viz. France, Germany, the UK and the US, which receive a substantial share of all immigrants to the OECD world. Looking at immigrants by source countries, we illustrate the important role of distance,...

For a long time, migration has been subject to intensive economic research. Nevertheless, empirical evidence regarding the determinants of migration still appears to be incomplete. In this paper, we analyze the effects of socio-economic and institutional determinants, especially labor-market institutions, on migrants' choices. Based on a large data...

This paper analyzes how mobility of post-graduate skilled workers and students across different countries affects the quality level of higher education and the way education is financed. We start by examining a closed economy. In the presence of imperfect credit markets the education level with pure fee-financing is lower than the optimal level. If...

This article analyses public debt differences across industrial countries with a special focus on Germany on the basis of political economy approaches. We are interested in identifying the empirically relevant theories in order to draw conclusions for Germany based on international differences in the preferences of the political agents and/or i...

This paper investigates the impact of emigration on the political choice of the size of the welfare state. Mobility has two countervailing effects: the political participation effect and the tax base effect. With emigration, the composition of the constituency changes. This increases the political influence of the less mobile part of the population...

This paper analyzes how mobility of students across different countries affects the way higher education is financed. We start by examining a closed economy. If the economy is in the steady-state, we find that the optimal level of education in a fee-financed system is effi- cient while the level of education in a tax-financed system is sub-optimall...

The demographic evolution - in particular rising life-expectancies - as well as the technological progress in the health sector are largely seen as being among the main causes for the increase in health expenditures during the last decades. As a reaction to these developments, competition among public sickness funds was introduced in Germany in the...

This study analyses the qualitative aspects of emigration from Germany, taking account of economic and non-economic reasons. The reported willingness to emigrate from Germany in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) is explained for men and women by three groups of variables: individual characteristics, household characteristics and regional char...

Without Abstract

Are there still opportunities for welfare-improving reforms in unfunded pension systems? To answer this question, we analyze the intertemporal structure of implicit taxes in pay-as-you-go pension schemes. We demonstrate that these tax rates are declining over the life cycle. This timing is optimal if periodic wage elasticities of labor supply are i...

We investigate the interaction between migration opportunities, the incentive to form human capital, the formation of migration policies, and welfare. A positive probability of migration was shown to induce individuals to acquire additional human capital, with consequent increases in per capita human capital and welfare in the sending country. We s...

The asymptotic distributions of cointegration tests are approximated using the Gamma distribution. The tests considered are for the I(1), the conditional I(1), as well as the I(2) model. Formulae for the parameters of the Gamma distributions are derived from response surfaces. The resulting approximation is flexible, easy to implement and more accu...