Shouro Dasgupta

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | CMCC · ECIP

The literature linking climatic drivers and migration is growing, but there is still limited evidence and substantial uncertainty regarding future bilateral flows driven by climate stress on a global scale. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by projecting changes in the flows of international migrants from medium-term population and climate...

Heat stress affects the health of workers through physiological and behavioural responses, in turn, affecting the labour force through impacts on labour supply, labour productivity and labour capacity. In this Review, we explore the extent to which heat stress affects the labour force and discuss the corresponding occupational health and economic i...

Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large...

Climate change affects human health negatively in a number of complex ways, and children are particularly vulnerable. Quantifying the negative impacts of climate change on health, and identifying locations where children are at greater risk, can aid evidence-based policy making. We combine high-resolution climatic data with a dataset on infant and...

In 2023, a series of climatological and political events unfolded, partly driving forward the global climate and health agenda while simultaneously exposing important disparities and vulnerabilities to climate-related events. On the policy front, a significant step forward was marked by the inaugural Health Day at COP28, acknowledging the profound...

The 2022 UK heatwaves, when temperatures of over 40°C where recorded, brought to the fore that the UK is not sufficiently well adapted or prepared to deal with current, let alone future, climate change. There is plenty that could be done to protect the UK's workforce from increasing heat linked to the changing climate.

Background: Climate change is creating newly habitable environments in European cities for mosquitoes of the Aedes and Culex genera, known vectors of arboviruses such as dengue and West Nile. Urban infrastructure interventions can be effective adaptation measures for future-proofing cities, although empirical evidence of their effectiveness is scar...

Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated defining issues for this century. Despite growing empirical evidence on the economic incidence of climate policies and impacts, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. For example, all the major model comparisons...

The impact of climate change on economic growth has been the subject of numerous studies in recent years, with macro-econometric analyses estimating the effect of rising temperatures on GDP growth rates at the country-level. However, the distributional impact of warming on inequality and poverty at the micro-level remains relatively unexplored. In...

Objectives To propose a novel framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation based on three components of Vulnerability, Vaccination, and Values (3Vs). Methods A combination of geospatial data analysis and artificial intelligence methods for evaluating vulnerability factors at the local level and allocate vaccines according to a dynamic mechanism for u...

It is now clear that anthropogenic climate change is having a negative impact on human health. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive assessment of the impact of climatic stressors on child health in Burkina Faso. We undertake a rigorous empirical analysis of the impact of climate and weather shocks on mortality, stunting (height-for-age...

Climate change is one of several drivers of recurrent outbreaks and geographical range expansion of infectious diseases in Europe. We propose a framework for the co-production of policy-relevant indicators and decision-support tools that track past, present, and future climate-induced disease risks across hazard, exposure, and vulnerability domains...

European policy makers are increasingly interested in higher spatial representations of future macro-economic consequences from climate-induced shifts in the energy demand. Indeed, EU sub-national level analyses are currently missing in the literature. In this paper, we conduct a macro-economic assessment of the climate change impacts on energy dem...

As the linkages between extreme weather events, changes in climatic conditions and health impacts in exposed populations become clearer, so does the need for climate-smart decisions aimed at making the public health sector more responsive and resilient. By integrating climate and health information, climate services for health provide robust decisi...

Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change imp...

The use of climate services to support decision makers in incorporating climate change adaptation in their practices is well established and widely recognized. Their role is particularly relevant in a climate sensitive sector like agriculture where they can provide evidence for the adoption of transformative solutions from seasonal to multi-decadal...

Labour is one of the sectors most affected by heat stress. Labour supply (number working hours) and labour productivity (output during these hours) are all affected by warming. A growing body of literature finds that heat affects labour in multiple ways, with predominantly negative impacts on economic growth and workers’ health, that are heterogene...

This paper assesses the feasibility and robustness of an index-based insurance scheme against hydrological droughts under climate change. To this end, we develop a grand ensemble that samples both modeling and scenario uncertainty in the estimation of the insurance risk premium, so to reveal potential unfavorable surprises and minimize regret in th...

The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global...

In the past few decades, major public health advances have happened in Europe, with drastic decreases in premature mortality and a life expectancy increase of almost 9 years since 1980. European countries have some of the best health-care systems in the world. However, Europe is challenged with unprecedented and overlapping crises that are detrimen...

Women in developing countries are more exposed to the adverse effects of climate change. We develop a structural model to study the long-term impacts of climate and socioeconomic changes on labour supply and the pay gap between male/female and high-skilled/low-skilled labour. We calibrate our model with empirical evidence on the impacts of increasi...

Background In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to captu...

It is generally accepted that climate change is having a negative impact on food security. However, most of the literature variously focuses on the complex and many mechanisms linking climate stressors; the links with food production or productivity rather than food security; and future rather than current effects. In contrast, we investigate the e...

In response to the rapid spread of COVID-19, governments across the globe have implemented local lockdowns that have led to increased unemployment and have disrupted local and international transport routes and supply chains. Whilst such efforts aim to slow or stop the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, they have also resulted in increased food insecu...

Since the first concerns about potential damages from climate change impacts, their economic assessment has emerged as one of the most challenging and controversial issues. While there is evidence of non-linear impact of climate change on economic activity at the country level, we use the highest resolution economic activity data available to revis...

Climate change and weather shocks have multi-faceted impacts on food systems with important implications for economic policy. Combining a longitudinal household survey with high-resolution climate data, we demonstrate that both climate and weather shocks increase food insecurity; cash assistance and participation in Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net...

The G20 Climate Risk Atlas is the contribution of the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change to ensuring attentive and well-informed climate action. Our scientific community responded to the European Climate Foundation’s proposal with the preparation of a summary document based on the most advanced scientific knowledge availa...

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected food security across the world. As governments respond in different ways both with regards to containing the pandemic and addressing food insecurity, in parallel detailed datasets are being collected and analysed. To date, literature addressing food insecurity during the pandemic, using these datasets, has tended...

Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Exp...

Climate change has emerged as a growing threat to the European economy, whose economic losses are relevant for global growth. Rising temperatures and worsening extreme events are expected to affect climate-vulnerable sectors. Due to the economic integration within the European Union (EU), these impacts will likely have spillover effects and feedbac...

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected households across the globe due to the health impacts but also through indirect socioeconomic effects as a result of the additional stress on the health systems, implications of the lockdowns and other policy measures undertaken by governments. Moreover, there is evidence that these impacts are associated with soc...

Climate change has a major impact on productivity of different economic sectors as well as different labour groups. Here we study the crucial linkage between gradual climate change and availability of low-skilled labour in rural areas of South Africa. Using a nationally representative panel of micro-survey data, we derive marginal impacts of rising...

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate. The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience...

This review analyses global or near-global estimates of population exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and related hazards, followed by critically examining subsequent estimates of population migration due to this exposure. Our review identified 33 publications that provide global or near-global estimates of population exposure to SLR and associated h...

Here we present the first town-level report inspired by the Lancet Countdown, an annual report by world-leading experts tracking links between climate change and health globally. "A Public Health and Climate Change "Countdown" for Reading" tracks over time the extent to which climate change is having a negative impact on the health of Reading town...

We report the results of an international survey of 856 respondents from 55 countries which was conducted between late March and mid-April 2020, on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the social protection policies on people's lives and livelihood, their perception of the effectiveness of such policies, and their concerns in the context of oth...

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential incr...

The link between natural resources and conflict has been extensively analysed by the empirical literature. Yet, there is disagreement on both the existence and the type of relationship connecting resources to conflict. Existing research has focused on demonstrating the impact of resource scarcity or abundance on the risk of conflict, but no effort...

The entire agricultural supply chain, from crop production to food consumption, is expected to suffer significant damages from climate change. This paper empirically investigates the effects of warming on agricultural labor supply through variation in dietary intake in rural Uganda. We examine labor supply, food consumption, and overall social welf...

La Relazione sullo stato della green economy del 2019 presenta in apertura un focus sugli “Impatti economici dei cambiamenti climatici in Italia”: uno studio realizzato dall’European Institute on Economics and the Environment in collaborazione con la Fondazione per lo sviluppo sostenibile e Italy4Climate. Il 2019 è un anno di riflessione e di rilan...

Enhancing energy efficiency is an important goal of climate change mitigation policies. Promoting energy efficiency projects in developing countries has faced several barriers, preventing optimal investments. One of the main barriers has been the lack of internationally recognized indices to compare projects across countries. In this era of global...

Increasing realism in quantitative system modelling with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society. Yet, studies using quantitative system models, which have become a key analytical tool to support sustainability and decarboniza...

We synthesize the empirical contributions from the existing applied economics literature examining the influence of institutions and governance on environmental policy, environmental performance, and green investment. The literature on the influence of populism and public opinion on environmental policy adoption is also reviewed in line with the sp...

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1...

Presentation on country level evidence of adaptation and adaptive capacity using econometrics. This paper examines the determinants of climate related disasters and attempts to estimate the presence of adaptive capacity in terms of per capita income and population density elasticities. We find evidence of adaptive capacity in a “weak” form both in...

Technological change directed towards more efficient and eco-friendly technologies is a priority for both developed and developing countries. Insights on past trends and determinants of energy innovation, including political economy factors and non-financial drivers, are important to set the basis for cost-effective climate and energy policies in t...

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1...

In this review we synthetize the existing empirical contributions to examine the influence of institutions and governance on environmental policy, environmental outcomes, and investments. The paper describes how the relationship between institutions and various response variables related to environmental performance and environmental policy have be...

This paper examines the determinants of climate related disasters and attempts to estimate the presence of adaptive capacity in terms of per capita income and population density elasticities. We find evidence of adaptive capacity in a “weak” form both in terms of income and population density elasticities over our entire sample. That is, damages ar...

The impact of climate changes is increasingly evident through movements of climatic variable such as temperature and precipitation. Quantification of this impact is necessary in order to better understand the economic implications these changes. Average global temperature has increased by 0.74 Celsius in the last 100 years; rainfall has trended dow...

The key socioeconomic indicators of Bangladesh have apparently experienced improvement since the advent of a new phase of democracy in 1991. This paper examines the impact of democracy on economic growth in Bangladesh using a cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model. Results suggest that democracy as practiced in Bangladesh does not seem to have a...

It is often argued that strong macroeconomic fundamentals along with weak integration with international financial markets acted as major buffers for least developed countries (LDCs) against fallouts of the recent global financial and economic crisis. This paper examines the hypothesis that LDCs had strong macroeconomic fundamentals in the wake of...

The global financial and economic crisis had a lagged impact on the economy of Bangladesh, resulting in declines in export, import, FDI and foreign aid inflows. All these had concomitant negative effects on the country’s various socio-economic indicators including the GDP growth rate and per capita income. While a number of papers have used descrip...