Shari De Baets

Shari De Baets
Research Foundation Flanders | FWO · Ghent university - Economics

PhD

About

19
Publications
5,110
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151
Citations
Introduction
Shari De Baets currently works at the Ghent university - Economics, Research Foundation Flanders. Shari does research in the field of judgmental forecasting. Her most recent publication is 'Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support'.

Publications

Publications (19)
Article
Full-text available
Many people do not possess the necessary savings to deal with unexpected financial events. People's biases play a significant role in their ability to forecast future financial shocks: they are typically over-optimistic, present-oriented, and generally underestimate future expenses. The purpose of this study is to investigate how varying risk infor...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...
Article
Full-text available
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...
Article
Sales promotions are a key driver of judgmental adjustments to forecasts, especially in the world of Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG). Typically, three types of periods are relevant for sales promotions: a normal period as comparison point, a promotional period, and a post-promotional period. Yet, research on forecasting with sales promotions has...
Article
We set out to investigate whether inter‐individual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (1) optimism bias, (2) adding noise to forecasts, (3) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent and (4) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relati...
Preprint
Full-text available
My contributions to this voluminous publication can be found on pp 38-40 "The natural law of growth in competition" and on pp 169-170 "Dealing with logistic forecasts in practice"
Article
Forecasting support systems allow users to choose different statistical forecasting methods. But how well do they make this choice? We examine this in two experiments. In the first one (N = 191), people selected the model that they judged to perform the best. Their choice outperformed forecasts made by averaging the model outputs and improved with...
Article
Full-text available
Accurate forecasting is necessary to remain competitive in today's business environment. Forecast support systems are designed to aid forecasters in achieving high accuracy. However, studies have shown that people are distrustful of automated forecasters. This has recently been dubbed “algorithm aversion.” In this study, we explore the relationship...
Article
Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm's operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these...
Article
How effective are different approaches for the provision of forecasting support? Forecasts may be either unaided or made with the help of statistical forecasts. In practice, the latter are often crude forecasts that do not take sporadic perturbations into account. Most research considers forecasts based on series that have been cleansed of perturba...
Conference Paper
In a sample of 43 teams, the present study examines goal clarity as a mediator of the relationship between age diversity and team performance. As hypothesized, more age-diverse groups did not obtain high levels of goal clarity, and consequently performed worse than less age-diverse groups. Results further show that team reflexivity moderates the re...

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Projects

Project (1)
Project
In a series of experiments, Nigel Harvey (UCL) and I will look at people's ability to distinguish good from bad forecasting models, and the effects of the quality of the model on adjustment behaviour.