Shari De Baets

Research Foundation Flanders | FWO · Ghent university - Economics

Forecast value added' (FVA) is a term commonly used to measure the improved accuracy achieved by judgmentally modifying a set of forecasts produced by statistical methods or algorithms. Assessing the factors that prompt such adjustments, and when they are likely to improve accuracy, is important in company demand forecasting and planning but has no...

Forecasting time series perturbed by external events is a difficult challenge both for statistical models and for forecasters using their judgment. External events can disturb the historical timeline significantly and add complexity. But not all external events are the same. Here, we first provide a taxonomy of external events in the context of for...

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...

This study investigates the trust formation process between humans and systems, focusing on the interaction between Supply Chain planners and advanced automated planning systems. While trust in automation research is well-documented, two caveats exist—first, application to planning; second, bottom-up theorising. Zooming in on this Supply Chain cont...

Many people do not possess the necessary savings to deal with unexpected financial events. People's biases play a significant role in their ability to forecast future financial shocks: they are typically over-optimistic, present-oriented, and generally underestimate future expenses. The purpose of this study is to investigate how varying risk infor...

Sales promotions are a key driver of judgmental adjustments to forecasts, especially in the world of Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG). Typically, three types of periods are relevant for sales promotions: a normal period as comparison point, a promotional period, and a post-promotional period. Yet, research on forecasting with sales promotions has...

We set out to investigate whether inter‐individual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (1) optimism bias, (2) adding noise to forecasts, (3) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent and (4) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relati...

This study investigates the trust formation process between humans and systems, with specific focus on the interaction between Supply Chain planners and automated planning systems. While a well-documented body of trust in automation research exists, a bottom-up approach is rare. Additionally, the application to the specific context of planning is a...

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life...

Forecasting support systems allow users to choose different statistical forecasting methods. But how well do they make this choice? We examine this in two experiments. In the first one (N = 191), people selected the model that they judged to perform the best. Their choice outperformed forecasts made by averaging the model outputs and improved with...

Accurate forecasting is necessary to remain competitive in today's business environment. Forecast support systems are designed to aid forecasters in achieving high accuracy. However, studies have shown that people are distrustful of automated forecasters. This has recently been dubbed “algorithm aversion.” In this study, we explore the relationship...

Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm's operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these...

How effective are different approaches for the provision of forecasting support? Forecasts may be either unaided or made with the help of statistical forecasts. In practice, the latter are often crude forecasts that do not take sporadic perturbations into account. Most research considers forecasts based on series that have been cleansed of perturba...

In a sample of 43 teams, the present study examines goal clarity as a mediator of the relationship between age diversity and team performance. As hypothesized, more age-diverse groups did not obtain high levels of goal clarity, and consequently performed worse than less age-diverse groups. Results further show that team reflexivity moderates the re...