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Serguei Gavrilovitch Dobrovolski

Serguei Gavrilovitch Dobrovolski
Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia · Laboratory for Global Hydrology

Prof. Dr.

About

39
Publications
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114
Citations
Introduction
1. New methods of statistical and stochastic analysis of time series. 2. Investigation of a two-thresold random walks models and their applications in the earth sciences, in ecology, biology, and ethnology. 3. Changes in the river runoff at the global scale. 4. Forecasting of posible changes in the river runoff during the 20th century taking into consideration all types of uncertainties. 5. Study of the components of the global hydrological cycle and their changes at climatic scales. 6. Study of parameters of floods and droughts and characteristics of appropriate damages at the global scale. 7. Investigation of dams and their influence on the structure of the regulated rivers' runoff changes at global scale. 8. Study of the natural changes in the global climate. 9. Paleo-hydrology.

Publications

Publications (39)
Article
Full-text available
A global “power law − 2” of long-term natural changes in total volume of the terrestrial water mass and of the natural eustatic changes in the global mean sea level has been proposed using coastal gauges data and satellite altimetry. A “power law − 1/2” of the dependence of the coefficient of variation of the annual river discharge on the runoff de...
Article
Full-text available
Data on 388 world reservoirs and changes in the annual, maximal, and minimal runoff in the rivers they regulate at the same number of gages have been generalized over 102 items for each series. The existence of reservoirs has been shown to cause, on the average, an increase in the coefficients of variation and asymmetry for long-term variations of...
Article
Full-text available
Following scientific myths, which are widely spread in hydrology and in other earth sciences, are discussed. (1) The total water mass on land surface statistically significantly diminishes during last century. (2) Many time series of annual river runoff demonstrate nonstationary character. (3) The first-order Markov chain is a dominating model in t...
Article
Specific methods are proposed to assimilate the results of the “historical” experiments on 28 climate models. The results of the analysis confirm the hypothesis regarding a stationary character of changes in the global river runoff during “instrumental” period (approximately 150 years). Part of the models (about one third) reproduces the non-statio...
Article
Full-text available
Based on the analysis of 162 longest (more than 100 years each) series of annual, maximal, and minimal runoff in rivers of different genetic types, the regularities of changes in the degree of stationarity/nonstationarity of the runoff changes are studied. It is shown that changes in the average annual and maximum runoff in the rivers of the “main”...
Article
Full-text available
A method is proposed for incorporating possible global changes in the state of the atmosphere, basing on K. Hasselmann’s theory of stochastic climate models, for assessing the significance of forecasts of variations of annual river runoff depth in the XXI century. The data used includes the results of river runoff simulation at warming, obtained us...
Book
Full-text available
This book represents the first, both in Russian and foreign scientific literature, monograph, where regularities in changes of all main components of the global water exchange, at the climatic temporal scale and at local through global spatial scales, are analyzed on the basis of a unified methodological basis. Following processes are investigated:...
Article
Full-text available
Asymmetric Threshold Random Walks (ATRWs) is a class of models that can unify and explain, from our point of view, many events on the surface of the earth. The ATRWs have in common few fundamental, natural and widely spread features. (a) Objects under consideration are affected by random impulses that can be - at least, partly – accumulated. (b) Th...
Article
New approaches, methods, and formulas, proposed by the author, are used to study many-year and year-to-year variations of the annual, maximal, and minimal runoff of rivers in Baikal Lake drainage basin. The stationary character of most changes in the annual and maximal runoff (including major Baikal tributaries at the gages nearest to the lake) is...
Article
Full-text available
При помощи новых подходов, методов и формул, преложенных автором, изучаются многолетние и межгодовые изменения годового, максимального и минимального стока рек в водосборном бассей-не оз. Байкал. Продемонстрирована стационарность большей части изменений годового и макси-мального стока (в том числе основных притоков Байкала в ближайших к озеру створ...
Article
Full-text available
New approaches, methods, and formulas, proposed by the author, are used to study many-year and year-to-year variations of the annual, maximal, and minimal runoff of rivers in Baikal Lake drainage basin. The stationary character of most changes in the annual and maximal runoff (including major Baikal tributaries at the gages nearest to the lake) is...
Article
Full-text available
Results of the analysis of about 2000 shower-type floods of the world are given in the paper. Following numerical “natural” parameters of floods are considered: coordinates of centers of flood regions, dates, durations, total areas of flood regions. Characteristics of social-economic damages are analyzed as well. It is shown that the shower-type fl...
Article
Full-text available
Time series of the globally averaged air temperatures T for the period 1880 through 2014 are analyzed in the framework of the K. Hasselmann’s stochastic climate models theory. A new system of estimating statistical and stochastic parameters of time series, proposed by the author, is used in the present investigation. It is shown that both for the p...
Article
Full-text available
Results of the quantitative analysis, using 12 parameters, of about 2400 floods of the world are discussed. It is shown that floods are not to a lesser extent social and economic, than the natural phenomena: the most humidified natural zones of the earth are characterized by the smallest damages from floods. Areas of the greatest humanitarian damag...
Article
Full-text available
Data on statistical and stochastic parameters of the annual, maximum and minimum river runoff of the 6 main Russian rivers (Volga, Northern Dvina, Ob', Yenissey, Lena, Amur), obtained on 37 CMIP-5 models ("historical experiments"), is compared with appropriate parameters calculated using observationsl data. (The text of the paper is in Russian).
Article
Parameters of 450 strongest “agricultural” droughts in the world from 1980 to 2008, as well as time variations of those parameters, are considered (based on data from a droughts archive of the University of Louvain, Belgium). To study the meteorological aspects of droughts, variations of Palmer drought index, evaluated based on meteorological data...
Article
A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmo...
Article
Full-text available
Data on the annual, maximal, and minimal runoff for about 3000 gauges, taken from international archives, as well as data on total runoff into the World Ocean are given. The rivers for which the gauges considered in the study are outlet gauges were divided into 6 groups by their nourishment type, lake abundance, and the degree of potential anthropo...
Book
Full-text available
This is the first monograph (both in Russian literature and abroad), where year-to-year and long-term changes in the annual, maximal and minimal runoff are analyzed at truly global scale: at approximately 3000 river gauges all over the world. New methods and formulas for estimating statistical and stochastic parameters are used on the basis of a ne...
Article
Parameters of 123 floods on the territory of the Russian Federation are analyzed, including the dates of young floods, numbers (frequency), duration, genetic type of floods, inundated land areas, total area of regions affected by flood, coordinates of their centers, number of population in these regions, total number of affected people, number of e...
Article
Full-text available
Changes in the states of two groups of major earth climatic subsystems are investigated: (a) "thick" subsystems (atmosphere, and ocean), and (b), "thin" subsystems (vegetation, snow, and sea ice). These two groups are distinguished with respect to temporal variations of their spatial extent which is dynamic for the "thin" subsystems and stable for...
Article
Full-text available
Maps of a series of characteristics were calculated and constructed for RF territory, including mean values of changes in runoff depths (evaluated by the main climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) due to greenhouse effect estimated for 2040–2070; root-mean-square deviations from these values; relative errors of the estima...
Book
Full-text available
INSTEAD OF ABSTRACT. Added file with Contents gives full impression as for the monograph. Draft variants of selected parts of the book might be sent privately on requests for personal use only.
Chapter
Despite recent achievements in understanding past climatic changes (Adern 1991b; Boulton et al. 1995; Huybrechts and Tsiobell 1995; Marsiat 1995; Berger and Loutre 1996, 1997; Muller and MacDonald 1997, etc.), there are still many difficulties in studying these extremely important natural processes. The causes of this situation are as follows: 1. D...
Chapter
Results of the present work can be summarized as follows. Stochastic analysis of climate records shows that the theoretical and model approaches which prevail in contemporary climate change science are not consistent with existing observational data: 1. Neither global nor local climatic parameters (thousands of time series of several dozens of type...
Chapter
It was demonstrated in Chapter 1 that there are substantial differences between characteristic dimensions and sizes of thick climatic subsystems on one hand (atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets) and thin subsystems (snow and sea ice cover, precipitation, vegetation cover, soil moisture), on the other. Resulting differences in the temporal behavior of par...
Chapter
Investigations in the research area of climate change are characterized by the intensive use of sophisticated mathematical models (most of them deterministic): general circulation models and coupled models, deterministic chaos and neural networks, etc. However, many questions remain unanswered. Computer speed has increased by millions of times sinc...
Chapter
Roughly speaking, the climate system consists of the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets, and land surface. In order to give a more detailed definition and classify the climate system’s components, we must take into consideration the ideology of climate research. During the past 30 years, general circulation models (GCMs, see Sect. 1.4.1), together with...
Article
Full-text available
Applications of J. Adem's model to water and heat exchange processes are discussed and the method of dynamic-stochastic model construction is presented. This approach may be useful in different climate studies. -Authors
Article
Full-text available
Data on the South Atlantic monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are analysed using the maximum-entropy method. It is shown that the Markov first-order process can describe, to a first approximation, SSTA series. The region of maximum SSTA values coincides with the zone of maximum residual white noise values (sub-Antarctic hydrological f...

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