Sergei Smyshlyaev

Sergei Smyshlyaev
Russian State Hydrometeorological University | RSHU · Meteoforecast department

About

97
Publications
5,277
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871
Citations
Citations since 2017
42 Research Items
359 Citations
2017201820192020202120222023020406080
2017201820192020202120222023020406080
2017201820192020202120222023020406080
2017201820192020202120222023020406080
Introduction

Publications

Publications (97)
Article
Full-text available
The observed ozone layer depletion is influenced by continuous anthropogenic activity. This fact enforced the regular ozone monitoring globally. Information on spatial-temporal variations in total ozone columns (TOCs) derived by various observational methods and models can differ significantly due to measurement and modelling errors, differences in...
Article
The mixing ratio of carbon dioxide CO2 from the CAMS database is compared with in situ and remote measurements carried out at Peterhof in 2018 (St. Petersburg, Russia). The analysis shows strong annual variations in the difference in the surface CO2 concentration from CAMS and measurements, and in the cor-relation coefficients. Ground-based and sat...
Article
Full-text available
Dynamical processes and changes in the ozone layer in the Arctic stratosphere during the winter of 2019–2020 were analyzed using numerical experiments with a chemistry-transport model (CTM) and reanalysis data. The results of numerical calculations using CTM with Dynamic parameters specified from the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research a...
Article
Full-text available
The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of...
Preprint
Full-text available
The behavior of planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 (PW1) at the heights of middle and upper stratosphere during different El Nino types has been considered. The sets of 5 winters have been chosen for each El Nino type using the table of available extended Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index values and index for identifying d...
Article
Full-text available
Nowadays, different approaches for CO2 anthropogenic emission estimation are applied to control agreements on greenhouse gas reduction. Some methods are based on the inverse modelling of emissions using various measurements and the results of numerical chemistry transport models (CTMs). Since the accuracy and precision of CTMs largely determine err...
Article
Full-text available
Ground-based observations show a phase shift in semi-annual variation of excited hydroxyl (OH*) emissions at mid-latitudes (43° N) compared to those at low latitudes. This differs from the annual cycle at high latitudes. We examine this behaviour by utilising an OH* airglow model which was incorporated into a 3D chemistry–transport model (CTM). Thr...
Preprint
Full-text available
The features of dynamical processes and changes in the ozone layer in the Arctic stratosphere during the winter-spring season 2019–2020 are analyzed using ozonesondes, reanalysis data and numerical experiments with a chemistry-transport model (CTM). Using the trajectory model of the Central Aerological Observatory (TRACAO) and the ERA5 reanalysis o...
Preprint
Full-text available
Ground-based observations show a phase shift in semi-annual variation of excited hydroxyl (OH*) emissions at mid-latitudes (43° N) compared to those at low latitudes. This differs from the annual cycle at high latitudes. We examine this behaviour utilising an OH* airglow model which was incorporated into the 3D chemistry-transport model (CTM). Thro...
Article
Сопоставлены содержания CO2 в атмосфере над Петергофом (Санкт-Петербург, Россия) из базы данных CAMS с локальным и дистанционным измерениям в 2018 г. Анализ показывает, что разница между значениями приземной концентрации по данным CAMS и измерениям, а также коэффициент корреляции сильно варьируются в зависимости от месяца. Наземные и спутниковые сп...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Undoubtedly, urbanization level has been rising rapidly during last decades, and due to growth in the number of industries the amount of anthropogenic aerosols and gases as pollution has been increasing. Some pollutants influence humans`health when others lead to changes in different meteorological parameters. In this study the aerosols influence o...
Preprint
Full-text available
В статье рассматривается и оценивается влияние аэрозолей на такие метеорологические параметры, как температура воздуха на 2-х м и облачность. Исследования проводились для территории северо-запада России с акцентом на мегаполис Санкт-Петербург. В работе была использована онлайн интегрированная модель Enviro-HIRLAM. C eё помощью было смоделировано вл...
Article
Full-text available
Information about distribution of pollen sources, i.e. their presence and abundance in a specific region, is important, especially when atmospheric transport models are applied to forecast pollen concentrations. The goal of this study is to evaluate three pollen source maps using an atmospheric transport model and study the effect on the model resu...
Article
Full-text available
A chemistry–climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to compare the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the observed variability of stratospheric ozone. Numerical experiments have been carried out on several scenarios of separate and combined effects of solar activity, stratospheric aerosol, sea surface temperature, greenho...
Article
Full-text available
Temporal variability in erythemal radiation over Northern Eurasia (40°–80 N, 10 W–180 E) due to total ozone column (X) and cloudiness was assessed by using retrievals from ERA-Interim reanalysis, TOMS/OMI satellite measurements, and INM-RSHU chemistry–climate model (CCM) for the 1979–2015 period. For clear-sky conditions during spring and summer, c...
Article
A set of numerical models of the lower and middle atmosphere gas composition has been created at the Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU). The set of RSHU numerical models consists of a global chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere (0-90 km), a chemistry-transport model (CTM) of the troposphere...
Article
Full-text available
The prediction of lightning-generated nitrogen oxides in the troposphere and low stratosphere is evaluated using the Weather and Research Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with nested grid spacing of 15 and 5 km where convection is parameterized. The responses of nitrogen oxides, ozone, temperature and peroxyacetyl-nitrate (PAN) a...
Article
Full-text available
The impact of Arctic methane hydrate emissions on the gas composition and climate is studied by using a chemistry-climate model. Model runs are carried out using two methane emission scenarios (with Arctic methane emissions increased by 5 and 10 times, respectively, relative to the reference level of emissions of 10 Tg/year). The methane hydrate em...
Article
Full-text available
The influence of El-Niño and La-Niña on the Arctic stratosphere is studied. Sea surface temperature (SST), potential vorticity, air temperature, ozone mixing ratio, and column ozone ERA Interim data are analyzed for 1997, 1999, and 2016. It is shown that El-Niño leads to a series of sudden stratospheric warmings and, consequently, to instability of...
Article
The description of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is presented. The paper analyzes the data of MERRA, JRA, ERA-Interim, and ERA-20Century reanalyses and the re suits of CCM chemistry-climate model simulations based on monthly mean values of air temperature and ozone mixing ratio at the levels of 925 and 20 hPa during 1980–2015. The comparison with d...
Article
Full-text available
Information about distribution of pollen sources, i.e. their presence and abundance in a specific region, is important especially when atmospheric transport models are applied to forecast pollen concentrations. The goal of this study is to evaluate three pollen source maps using an atmospheric transport model and study the effect on the model resul...
Article
Full-text available
With the gradual yet unequivocal phasing out of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), the environmental crisis caused by the discovery of an ozone hole over the Antarctic has lessened in severity and a promising recovery of the ozone layer is predicted in this century. However, strong volcanic activity can also cause ozone depletion that might be seve...
Article
Full-text available
In this work, the impact of various factors on the total ozone column and erythemal UV radiation (Qery) in the territory of Northern Eurasia for the period from 1979 to 2059 based on the calculations of the chemical-climate model INM-RHSU is analyzed. The sensitivity of ozone recovery to the setting of different input data on sea surface temperatur...
Article
Influence of the tropical oceanic processes (the El-Niño – La-Niña phenomenon) on structure and composition of a polar stratosphere is considered. Data of the reanalysis on sea surface temperature, a potential vorticity, temperatures of air, ozone mixing ratio and total ozone column per 1980–2016 are analyzed. Influence the El-Niño and La-Niña on c...
Article
Full-text available
Episodes of extremely low ozone columns were observed over the territory of Russia in the Arctic winter of 2015/2016 and the beginning of spring 2016. We compare total ozone columns (TOCs) from different remote sensing techniques (satellite and ground-based observations) with results of numerical modelling over the territory of the Urals and Siberi...
Article
The short-term variability of the methane column has been analyzed based on ground-based observations and numerical modeling at the St. Petersburg NDACC station for 2009–2016. The methane variability for different atmospheric altitude layers is presented. Short-term methane variability is found to be significant compared to long-term trends. The re...
Article
Full-text available
In this study the aerosols influence on selected meteorological parameters during two summer 2010 periods is evaluated with focus on the North-West Russia and urban area of St. Petersburg. For that, the seamless fully online-integrated Enviro-HIRLAM model is used. The simulations are realised in short- and long-term modes for selected periods. For...
Article
We compare the results of observations and numerical simulation of the ozone-content variability in the atmosphere above Nizhny Novgorod for the winters 2015 and 2016. The data of the local ground-based measurements and the MERRA reanalysis, the satellite data (SBUV device), and the numerical-simulation results are used. The analysis of the results...
Article
The time series of ozone columns measured with the SBUV satellite instrument over three subarctic stations (Saint Petersburg, Harestua, and Kiruna) are analyzed. The daily and monthly mean ozone values in the layers of 0–25, 25–60, and 0–60 km are compared with the results of simulations with RSHU and EMAC numerical models for the period of 2000–20...
Article
Full-text available
We have found distinct long-period changes in erythemal UV radiation (Qer) characterized by a pronounced decrease at the end of the 1970s and a statistically significant positive trend of more than 5%/10 years since 1979 over the territory of the Moscow region according to the measurements and reconstruction model. The positive Qer trend is shown t...
Article
Full-text available
Episodes of extremely low ozone columns were observed over the territory of Russia in the Arctic winter of 2015/2016 and the beginning of spring 2016. We compare total ozone columns (TOC) obtained using different remote sensing techniques (satellite and ground-based observations) and results of numerical modelling over the territory of the Urals an...
Article
Fourier and wavelet spectra of time series for the ozone column abundance in the atmospheric 0–25 and 25–60 km layers are analyzed from SBUV satellite observations and from numerical simulations based on the RSHU and EMAC models. The analysis uses datasets for three subarctic locations (St. Petersburg, Harestua, and Kiruna) for 2000–2014. The Fouri...
Article
A comparison between the numerical simulation results of ozone fields with different experimental data makes it possible to estimate the quality of models for their further use in reliable forecasts of ozone layer evolution. We analyze time series of satellite (SBUV) measurements of the total ozone column (TOC) and the ozone partial columns in two...
Article
Comparison of numerically simulated ozone fields with various experimental data makes it possible to evaluate the quality of models for their use in reliable prediction of variations of the ozone layer. We compared the satellite (SBUV) and ground-based (IFS Bruker 125HR) measurements of ozone content in two atmospheric layers (0–25 and 25–60 km) wi...
Article
This paper analyzes atmospheric ozone variability at different altitudes over St. Petersburg for the period 2009–2014 on the basis of surface observations at the Peterhof station, satellite measurements with an SBUV instrument, and numerical simulations. Simulation data on temperature, wind velocity, humidity, and surface pressure are taken from th...
Article
Full-text available
The state of the stratospheric ozone layer and the temperature structure of the atmosphere are largely controlled by the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) through its influence on heating and photolysis rates. This study focuses on the uncertainties in the photolysis rate response to solar irradiance variability related to the choice of SSI data set...
Article
Full-text available
The state of the stratospheric ozone layer and the temperature structure of the atmosphere are largely controlled by the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) through its influence on heating and photolysis rates. This study focuses on the uncertainties in the photolysis rate response to solar irradiance variability related to the choice of SSI data set...
Article
The planetary wave impact on the polar vortex stability, polar stratosphere temperature, and content of ozone and other gases was simulated with the global chemical–climatic model of the lower and middle atmosphere. It was found that the planetary waves propagating from the troposphere into the stratosphere differently affect the gas content of the...
Article
The sensitivity of the gas composition of the atmosphere and its temperature to the changes in spectral radiation fluxes during the 11-year cycle of solar activity has been analyzed with a chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere. For this, the data of satellite measurements acquired in the first decade of the 21st century were us...
Article
Full-text available
Numerical simulation with the use of the global chemistry–climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere has shown that the contribution of methane emissions from Arctic gas hydrates to the global production is most likely underestimated. An increase in methane emission as a result of Arctic warming may lead to a decrease in hydroxyl content and...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Modelling of birch pollen temporal and spatial evolution in the atmosphere has very high interest in recent years. Birch pollen is biological aerosol that can cause allergic reactions among people suffered from respiratory diseases such as rhinitis. Among European countries, in Denmark the number of allergic patients has been increased twice over t...
Poster
Full-text available
Abstracts of 14th EMS-2014 Annual Meeting, 6-10 Oct 2014, Prague, Czech Republic, Vol.11, EMS2014-582
Poster
Abstracts of 5th Conference on “Ecological Problems of Northern Regions and Ways for Their Solution”, 23-27 Jun 2014, Apatity, Russia; p.35
Article
Full-text available
A coupled chemistry-climate model of both lower and middle atmospheres is used to study variations in the temperature of the atmosphere when its chemical composition is disturbed due to thunderstorm activity, which results in variations in its local heating and cooling and in atmospheric heat and mass transfer. The results of model calculations sho...
Article
Full-text available
The reproduction of the current state of the Earth climate system with the help of a mathematical model is considered. The model has been developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). This model describes the following processes: general circulation of the atmosphere, general circulation of the oc...
Article
Full-text available
An interactive three-dimensional chemistry-climate model combining models of the gas composition and general circulation of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to study the impact of changes in extra-atmospheric solar radiative fluxes induced by solar activity on the stratospheric heating and subsequent temperature and ozone variations in the s...
Article
Full-text available
A chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere has been used to estimate the sensitivity of the atmospheric gas composition to the rate of thunderstorm production of nitrogen oxides at upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric altitudes. The impact that nitrogen oxides produced by lightning have on the atmospheric gas composition is...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Studies connected with atmospheric transport, distribution, and variations of radioactive noble gases (85Kr and 133Xe) are of significant importance for the environment and population. Continuous accumulation of 85Kr in the atmosphere and identification of accidental nuclear releases as well as monitoring of safe operation of nuclear power plants b...
Article
Full-text available
A thermodynamics-microphysics model of the formation and evolution of stratospheric clouds is developed. This model was integrated into the global chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere. Model experiments on the study of the evolution of the gas and aerosol compositions of the Arctic and Antarctic atmosphere were performed. The...
Poster
Full-text available
Abstracts of European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, 2-7 May 2010, Vienna, Austria; Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol.12, EGU2010-314 In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of meteorological fields due to influence of the thermal and dynamical urban effects of the metropolitan area was estimated for St. Petersburg (Russia)...
Article
The research was devoted to the problem of estimation of chemical transformations of source species and atmospheric species in high-polluted areas. Box Air Quality Model (BAQM offline) was developed to estimate degree of influence of different species on atmospheric processes by analysis of chemical transformation and consequently lifetimes of thes...
Article
Full-text available
A simple correlation method and a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/rainfall composite analysis were used to examine the teleconnections be-tween the seasonal rainfall anomalies of March through May (long-rains) over East Africa and the different QBO phases in the stratospheric zonal winds, and also explore the predictive potential of the long rainy...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of meteorological fields due to influence of the thermal and dynamical urban effects of the metropolitan area was estimated on example of St. Petersburg (Russia). Dependence of these fields on the temporal variability of meteorological variables in the lower surface layer (wind at 10 m and air tem...
Article
Full-text available
The global chemical transport model Oslo CTM2, driven by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts international Integrated Forecast System meteorology and including tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, is described and evaluated against measurements by satellite-based instruments, ozone sondes, and aircraft. A new heterogeneous chemi...
Article
Full-text available
A combined three-dimensional global model of the chemistry and dynamics of the lower and middle atmosphere (up to 90 km from the Earth’s surface) is described. With the use of this model within the AMIP2 (1979–1995) program, numerical calculations were performed with consideration for the interactive coupling between the ozone content, radiation he...
Article
New prognostic estimates are obtained for the potential variability of the atmospheric ozone content in the first half of the 21st century. The calculations are based on models of gas composition and general circulation in the lower and middle atmosphere and on the scenarios of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is shown that the rate...
Article
Full-text available
We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet–2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979–2003. Trends for the past (1979–2000), the recent 7 years (1996–2003), and the future (2000–2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both s...
Article
A two-dimensional photochemistry model with dynamical parameters derived from the atmospheric general circulation model is used to estimate the response of atmospheric ozone to solar-induced changes in solar extraterrestrial radiation fluxes. Several numerical tests have been done to evaluate column ozone sensitivity to solar flux variations in dif...
Article
The SPb-SB 2-D transport-chemistry model is used to investigate how interpretations of causes of past changes in stratospheric ozone (1970-2000) can depend on different model dynamics. The results from two different simulations of ozone are compared. Both use the same SPb-SB 2-D model framework, with the same chemistry treatment, the same solar UV...
Article
A two-dimensional atmospheric gas composition model and a three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model are used to study the relative contributions of variations in solar activity, aerosol volcanic eruptions, atmospheric circulation conditions, and anthropogenic chlorine and bromine gas emissions to the observed long-period variations in...
Article
The methodology of two-dimensional chemistry-transport model driven data assimilation is used to evaluate atmospheric ozone changes for several decades. The SUNY-SPb two-dimensional transport-chemistry model, using the same mathematical framework, has been used to assimilate atmospheric composition data from two different solar occultation satellit...
Article
In an earlier published paper, we showed the data assimilation results for ozone using the SAGE II solar occultation data and a two-dimensional chemistry-transport model. In this earlier work, no solar cycle UV dependence was included in the model. Here, we show results using this same model, but now including solar cycle UV variations. These new r...
Article
Full-text available
The sources and sinks of stratospheric reactive nitrogen (NOy) in the Antarctic are known only qualitatively, because of the very few measurements of NOy available in this region. As a result, the effects of stratospheric NOy short- and long-term changes on the stratospheric concentration of ozone, water vapor, and other climate-forcing agents are...