Sebastian Edwards

• University of California, Los Angeles

In this paper I discuss the effectiveness of foreign aid from a historical perspective. I show that foreign aid is a relatively new concept in economics, and I emphasize the role of exchange rate policies in the foreign aid controversies of the 1970s through 1990s. I show that in the early 1980s there were major changes in views regarding aid and a...

I use data on 180 sovereign defaults to analyze what determines the recovery rate after a debt restructuring process. Why do creditors recover, in some cases, more than 90 %, while in other cases they recover less than 10 %? I find support for the Grossman and Van Huyk model of “excusable defaults”: countries that experience more severe negative sh...

We investigate whether the inclusion of educational rights in political constitutions affects the quality of education. We rely on data for 61 countries that participated in the 2012 PISA tests. Our results are strong and robust to the estimation technique (least squares or instrumental variables): there is no evidence that including the right to e...

I analyse whether countries with flexible exchange rates are able to pursue an independent monetary policy, as suggested by traditional theory. I use data for three Latin American countries with flexible exchange rates, inflation targeting and capital mobility – Chile, Colombia and Mexico – to investigate the extent to which Federal Reserve actions...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the (relative) roles of two sources of reduced international competitiveness in New Zealand during the last few years: the appreciation of the trade-weighted real exchange rate, and the (relative) inefficiency of the local service sector. According to the exercises reported in this paper, reducing service...

In this paper I use weekly data from seven emerging nations – four in Latin America and three in Asia – to investigate the extent to which changes in Fed policy interest rates have been transmitted into domestic short term interest rates during the 2000s. The results suggest that there is indeed an interest rates “pass through” from the Fed to emer...

En este trabajo se discute el uso de la tasa de cambio como ancla nominal en programas de estabilización. La primera parte analiza la dinámica de la inflación en economías altamente indizadas. Se demuestra que las anclas de tasa de cambio que sean creíbles disminuirán el grado de inercia inflacionaria. Sin embargo, de mantenerse algún grado de dich...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a historical perspective on the reform process initiated in Tanzania in 1986, and deepened in 1996. In order to do this I concentrate mostly on the period spanning from 1967, when the Arusha Declaration was adopted by the official political party the TANU, and 1996, when a new approach towards foreign aid was...

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970-2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active...

In this paper I discuss some of the most important lessons on exchange-rate policies in emerging markets during the last 35years. The analysis is undertaken from the perspective of both the Latin American and East Asian nations. Some of the topics addressed include: the relationship between exchange-rate regimes and growth, the costs of currency cr...

No abstract available.

Describe la resistencia política a las medidas estabilizadoras de la Misión Kelin-Sacksen el segundo gobierno de Ibáñez. Capítulo: La larga marcha del estatismo. La resistencia a la Misión Klein-Saks 1955-1958, Cristián Garay Vera. En Juan Pablo Coudjoudjiam (coordinador), Reformas económicas e instituciones políticas: La experiencia de la misión K...

Este artículo trata de la forma en que se relaciona un régimen de metas de inflación con el tipo de cambio, con el foco puesto en tres temas específicos: primero, el autor analiza la eficacia del tipo de cambio nominal como amortiguador de shocks en los países con metas de inflación. Este tema guarda estrecha relación con la magnitud del coeficient...

In this paper I analyze whether restrictions to capital mobility reduce countries’ vulnerability to major external shocks. More specifically, I ask if countries that restrict the free flow of international capital have a lower probability of experiencing a sudden stop and being subject to contagion than countries that have a freer degree of capital...

This paper analyzes the effects of changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Funds rate on emerging countries' interest rates using high frequency (weekly) data. I also investigate how changes in the U.S. term structure affect short term rates' differentials. Other shocks include changes in the U.S. dollar–Euro exchange rate, changes in the int...

The political and economic history of Latin America has been marked by great hopes and even greater disappointments. Despite abundant resources—and a history of productivity and wealth—in recent decades the region has fallen further and further behind developed nations, surpassed even by other developing economies in Southeast Asia and elsewher...

Crime rates in Latin America are among the highest in the world, and in several countries they have steadily risen over the past two decades, making crime the primary concern of many citizens. Despite this situation, there has been a lack of systematic effort to study crime in the region or the effectiveness of policies designed to tackle it. This...

In this paper I analyze the evolution of economic and social conditions in Latin America from the 1950s through the 1980s, when deep external crises erupted in country after country. The point of departure of our story is the political awakening of the region in the late 1950s and early 1960s and the emergence of guerilla movements in many countrie...

In this paper I analyze Latin America's very long term economic performance (since the early 18th century), and I compare it with that of the United States, Australia, New Zealand and the countries of Western Europe. I begin with an analysis of long term data and an attempt at determining when the region's decline really began. The next section dea...

I use a large cross country data set and panel probit analysis to investigate the way in which the interaction between trade and financial openness affect the probability of external crises. This analysis is related to debate on the adequate sequencing of reform. I also investigate the role played by current account and fiscal imbalances, contagion...

As we enter the 1990s, issues related to economic reform and modernization are flooding the policy agenda. In Buenos Aires, Warsaw, Seoul, and other capitals, questions related to the opening of markets, the privatization of government-owned enterprises and the acquisition (and maintenance) of a competitive position in a global world economy are di...

"In this paper I analyse the role of openness and globalisation in Latin America's economic development. The paper is divided into two distinct parts: I first ( Sections 2 to 4) provide an analysis of 60 years of the region's economic history, that go from the launching of the Alliance for Progress by the Kennedy administration in 1961, to the form...

Capital mobility is a double-edged sword for emerging economies, as governments must weigh the benefits of investment against the potential economic costs and political consequences of currency crises, devaluations, and instability. Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets addresses the delicate balance between capital mobil...

In this paper I analyze the nature of external adjustments in current account surplus countries. I ask whether a realignment of world growth rates -- with Japan and Europe growing faster, and the U.S. growing more slowly -- is likely to solve the current situation of global imbalances. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) there is an...

Creation-DaThis brief review takes stock of the recent literature on current account and external financing and presents new analytical results and empirical research on the subject. Four key areas of related research are presented, namely global imbalances and macroeconomic adjustment; external adjustment in emerging economies, crises and current-...

This article summarizes the most salient aspects of papers presented at the Central Bank of Chile’s Tenth Annual Conference “Current Account and External Financing” held in November 2006 and soon to be edited into an upcoming book. Many works were included oriented to improve understanding of recent trends and behavior of international financial ma...

In this paper I analyze whether restrictions to capital mobility reduce vulnerability to external shocks. More specifically, I ask if countries that restrict the free flow of international capital have a lower probability of experiencing a large contraction in net capital flows. I use three new indexes on the degree of international financial integ...

Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emergi...

Resumen En este artículo uso datos históricos para analizar la relación entre crisis y crecimiento en América Latina. Calculo en cuanto se ha reduci-do el PIB per capita en la región como consecuencia de las recurrentes crisis externas. Analizo, también, los principales determinantes de las crisis de balanzas de pagos. La principal conclusión es qu...

Este trabajo muestra un resumen integrado de los aspectos más sobresalientes de los trabajos presentados en la décima Conferencia Anual del Banco Central de Chile �Cuenta Corriente y Financiamiento Externo�, realizada en noviembre de 2006 y por aparecer compilados en un libro de próxima publicación. En ella se presentó un conjunto de trabajos orien...

During the last three years New Zealand has faced increasingly large external imbalances. The current account deficit has increased from 4.3% of GDP in 2003 to almost 9.0% of GDP in 2005. During the same period the country’s net international investment position (NIIP) went from a negative level equivalent to 78.5% of GDP to negative 89% of GDP....

This paper deals with the relationship between inflation targeting and exchange rates. I address three specific issues: first, I analyze the effectiveness of nominal exchange rates as shock absorbers in countries with inflation targeting. This issue is closely related to the magnitude of the "pass-through" coefficient. Second, I investigate whether...

In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large %u201Ccurrent account reversals.%u201D The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger current account deficits, lower prices of exports...

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the tradition...

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of "strictly dollarized" economies. In particular, we investigate whether dollarized countries have historically exhibited faster growth and lower volatility than countries with a domestic currency. We analyze this issue by using a treatment regression analysis that estimates jointly the probability...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the emerging and transition economies’ experience with capital account convertibility, capital account management and capital controls. Overall, the analysis suggests that policies aiming at controlling capital flows have been less effective—in terms of helping achieve their objectives—than claimed by their s...

We use high frequency data and a new econometric approach to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s, and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which differen...

In this paper I analyze the role of foreign advisors in stabilization programs. I discuss from an analytical perspective why foreigners may help a developing country's government put in place a successful stabilization program. This framework is used to analyze Chile's experience with anti-inflationary policies in the mid 1950s. In 1955-58 Chile im...

We use high frequency data and a new econometric methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which differ...

In this paper I use a broad multi-country data set to analyze the relationship between restrictions to capital mobility and external crises. The analysis focuses on two manifestations of external crises: (a) sudden stops of capital inflows; and (b) current account reversals. I deal with two important policy-related issues: First, does the extent of...

This paper analyzes the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the U.S. current account, dealing with issues of sustainability and the mechanics of current account adjustment. The analysis differs from other work in several respects. First, it emphasizes the dynamics of current account adjustment, going beyond computations of the real depreciatio...

The future of the U.S. current account -- and thus of the U.S. dollar -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at some point in time. This adjustment may be as large...

In Latin America the 1980s are known as the "lost decade." During that period, growth per capita was negative, unemployment reached unprecedented levels, and inflation was remarkably stubborn. This poor performance was the consequence of a number of factors, including vastly overvalued real exchange rates, very large fiscal imbalances, and an incre...

In this paper I analyze the anatomy of current account adjustments in the world economy during the last three decades. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Major reversals in current account deficits have tended to be associated to sudden stops' of capital inflows. (b) The probability of a country experiencing a reversal is captured...

Economia 4.2 (2004) 1-35 The Latin American countries are famously known for their economic and political travails. Most of the region has a long history of authoritarian politicians, successive coups d'état, galloping inflation, and financial crises. The literature attempting to explain Latin America's political and economic developments is volumi...

In this paper I use a panel data set to investigate the mechanics of sudden stops of capital inflows and current account reversals. I am particularly interested in four questions: (a) What is the relationship between sudden stops and current account reversals? (b) To what extent does financial openness affect the probability of a country being subj...

In this paper we use high frequency interest rate data for a group of Latin American countries to analyze the behavior of volatility through time. We are particularly interested in understanding whether periods of high volatility spillover across countries. Our analysis relies both on univariate and bivariate switching volatility models. Our result...

We analyze the effects of financial and trade globalization on the likelihood of financial crashes in emerging markets. While trade globalization always makes crashes less likely, financial globalization may make them more likely, especially when trade costs are high. Pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling and lead to a collapse in demand...

In this paper I deal with a number of issues related to financial instability in Latin America. I first discuss, from a macroeconomic research perspective, what I believe are some of the most important policy issues faced by the Latin American nations. These include the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows, the effect of exchange rate depre...

In this paper we analyse the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigate whether, as its supporters claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyse this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflat...

In this paper we analyze empirically the effect of terms of trade shocks on economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. We are particularly interested in investigating whether terms of trade disturbances have a smaller effect on growth in countries with a flexible exchange rate arrangement. We also analyze whether negative and pos...

In this paper we analyze the behavior of stock markets in six emerging countries. More specifically, we describe the bull and bear cycles of four Latin American and two Asian countries, comparing their characteristics during both phases and the degree of concordance of bullish periods. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for...

This chapter examines the economic performance of dollarized countries. It argues that dollarized nations have slower growth, similar fiscal record, have not been spared from major current account reversals, and have significantly lower inflation. The case of Panama demonstrates that external shocks result in greater costs, in terms of lower invest...

In this paper we analyze whether common currency' countries that is, dollarized and independent currency union countries have outperformed countries that have a currency of their own. The paper is empirical and estimates jointly the probability of being a common currency country and outcome' equations for growth, volatility and inflation. We find t...

In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy,aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt and quantifies the extent to which...

We use high-frequency interest-rate data for a group of Latin American and Asian countries to analyze the behavior of volatility through time. We focus on volatility comovements across countries. Our analysis relies on univariate and bivariate switching volatility models. We compare the results from the switching models with those from rolling-stan...

In this paper I develop a model to investigate the connection between debt relief and current account sustainability. This model can be used as a key input in assessing whether a HIPC country's real exchange rate is 'overvalued,' and will thus need to go through devaluation. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a count...

In this paper I use a broad multi-country data set to analyze the relationship between restrictions to capital mobility and external crises. The analysis focuses on two manifestations of external crises: (a) sudden stops of capital inflows; and (b) current account reversals. I deal with two important policy-related issues: First, does the extent of...

In this paper I discuss in what way, if any, the collapse of Argentina’s experience with a currency board has affected the policy debate on the appropriate exchange rate regime in emerging and transition countries. More specifically, I deal with three issues: (1) I discuss some important aspects of the Argentine experience; (2) I provide a comparat...

In 1981, Chile reformed its social security system. An inefficient and insolvent pay-as- you-go regime was replaced by system based on individual retirement accounts. Over the years Chile's reform has been widely praised, and has been carefully studied by policy makers throughout the world. In this paper we focus on a neglected aspect of Chile's so...

Are the Internet and other information technology the answer to growth in the developing world? This development economist answers "no," unless these countries make adequate investment in education, infrastructure, and research and development. This is no small order.

We analyze the way in which social security privatization reform affects labor market outcomes. We develop a model of the labor market where we assume that, as is the case in most emerging markets, a formal and an informal sectors coexist side by side. According to our model, a social security reform that reduces the implicit tax on labor in the fo...

We analyze the way in which social security privatization reform affects labor market outcomes. We develop a model of the labor market where we assume that, as is the case in most emerging markets, a formal and an informal sectors coexist side by side. According to our model, a social security reform that reduces the implicit tax on labor in the fo...

Canzoneri, Cumby, and Diba have written a very good paper on the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy. It is informative, clear, and persuasive. As the title indicates, the analysis deals exclusively with the cases of the United States and the European Union (EU). In a way, however, these are the countries where the discussion on the con...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of economic openness and increasing capital mobility on the economic growth. The author argues that "anti-globalization" views are based on incomplete evidence and tend to ignore important historical evidence. In the pare the author discusses the relationship between market-distortions and economi...

Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the cau...

During the last few years, there has been a renewed interest in currency unions. This is the result both of the recent wave of currency crises as well as the implementation of the euro. In this paper, the authors use panel data for 1970-98 to investigate economic performance under historical independent currency unions (ICUs) along three dimensions...

The paper decomposes GDP both in terms of level per capita and growth rate, so as to identify the sources of income differences and of economic growth for all EU27 member states. This accounting approach has multiple advantages, although a number of substantial caveats should be borne in mind when interpreting the results. In particular, the detail...

In this paper I analyze, within the context of the new 'financial architecture,' the relationship between exchange rate regimes, capital flows and currency crises in emerging economies. The paper draws on lessons learned during the 1990s, and deals with some of the most important policy controversies that emerged after the Mexican, East Asian, Russ...

In this paper, we use weekly stock market data for a group of Latin American countries to analyze the behavior of volatility through time. We are particularly interested in understanding whether periods of high volatility are correlated across countries. The analysis uses both on univariate and bivariate switching volatility models. Our results do...

In this paper I investigate the historical record of countries that have lived under a 'dollarized' monetary system. As it turns out, this is a very small group of counties, most of which have operated under very special circumstances, and for which there are very limited data. The results reported in this paper suggests that, when compared to othe...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate in detail the behavior of the current account in emerging economies, and in particular its role if any in financial crises. Models of current account behavior are reviewed, and a dynamic model of current account sustainability is developed. The empirical analysis is based on a massive data set that covers...