Sean Elvidge

Sean Elvidge
University of Birmingham · School of Engineering

PhD

About

55
Publications
4,193
Reads
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309
Citations
Citations since 2016
41 Research Items
297 Citations
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Introduction
Solar superstorms are one of the major risks facing society as it becomes increasingly dependent on technology. They have the potential to cripple electricity grids, disrupt satellite operations, degrade satnav performance and endanger human health. I am focused on using innovative mathematical methods to create the next generation space weather forecast models.
Additional affiliations
January 2019 - present
University of Birmingham
Position
  • Lecturer
October 2014 - December 2018
University of Birmingham
Position
  • PostDoc Position
Education
October 2011 - October 2014
University of Birmingham
Field of study
  • Ionospheric Modelling

Publications

Publications (55)
Article
Full-text available
Observations made using the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) between 10:15 and 11:48 UT on the 15th of September 2018 over a bandwidth of approximately 25-65 MHz contain discrete pseudo-periodic features of ionospheric origin. These features occur with a period of approximately ten minutes and collectively last roughly an hour. They are strongly frequen...
Article
Full-text available
Plain Language Summary The 2022 Tonga oceanic volcanic eruption and resulting tsunami was an incredibly impulsive and high energy event. Such events can generate strong pressure waves in the atmosphere that can propagate up into the Earth's ionosphere and modulate the plasma therein. Using every available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) r...
Article
Full-text available
Ionogram data from the Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory (GIRO), processed with Automatic Real-Time Ionogram Scaler With True Height (ARTIST), is provided with confidence scores to guide users on the reliability of the data set. Here we use manually processed data to assess the extent to which these confidence scores have value and to provide us...
Article
Full-text available
Here, we assess to what extent the Empirical Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Model (E‐CHAIM) can reproduce the climatological variations of vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) in the Canadian sector. Within the auroral oval and polar cap, E‐CHAIM is found to exhibit Root Mean Square (RMS) errors in vTEC as low 0.4 TECU during solar minimum summ...
Article
Full-text available
The temporal change in height of a specific electron density can be used as a proxy for vertical plasma drift (PVPD) at the magnetic equator. The use of PVPDs as a predictor of low‐latitude ionospheric scintillation during the subsequent evening has previously been shown to have forecasting skill when using ionosonde data. The implementation of thi...
Article
Full-text available
Severe space weather was identified as a risk to the UK in 2010 as part of a wider review of natural hazards triggered by the societal disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April of that year. To support further risk assessment by government officials, and at their request, we developed a set of reasonable worst‐case...
Article
Full-text available
The ensemble Kalman filter is a widely used technique across the many radio science domain areas. Despite this, conventional descriptions of Kalman filters can, at times, be somewhat opaque and difficult to conceptualize, making them difficult to approach for many users. This article presents a visualization of the underlying mathematical equations...
Conference Paper
We have proposed a high frequency (HF) over the horizon radar (OTHR) architecture with multiple receiving systems which are small and, therefore, relocatable. This Multistatic OTHR (MOTHR) configuration is based on a beamforming on transmit concept, with a very large aperture transmit antenna and a small aperture receive antenna. One consequence of...
Conference Paper
A proxy for vertical plasma drift (PVPD) at the magnetic equator can be used as an indicator of whether strong ionospheric scintillation will occur at low-latitudes. Using this approach with a physics-based model has previously been shown to demonstrate forecasting skill. AENeAS is an ensemble data assimilation model with a physics-based background...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper extreme value theory (EVT) has been used to estimate the return levels for geomagnetic activity based on the aa index. The aa index is the longest, continuously recorded, geomagnetic data set (from 1868 to present). This long, 150‐year data set is an ideal candidate for extreme value analysis. However, the data are not independent and...
Article
Full-text available
This paper further investigates the Talent versus Luck (TvL) model described by [Pluchino et al. Talent versus luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21 (2018) 1850014] which models the relationship between ‘talent’ and ‘luck’ on the impact of an individuals career. It is shown that the model is very sensitive to bo...
Conference Paper
Determining the rate of change of the virtual height associated with a specific ionosonde frequency provides a proxy for vertical plasma drift (PVPD). Anderson et al. (2004) demonstrated that PVPDs at a location on the magnetic equator between 1830 and 2000 local time (LT) can be used as an indicator for the occurrence of low-latitude ionospheric s...
Conference Paper
Radio transmissions which pass through or are refracted by the ionosphere (e.g. GPS, HF communications) are critical for a number of civil and military systems. In low latitude regions ionospheric bubbles or plumes of depleted plasma can form after sunset. Transmissions passing through these plasma irregularities are subject to interference caused...
Article
Full-text available
The Advanced Ensemble electron density (Ne) Assimilation System (AENeAS) is a new data assimilation model of the ionosphere/thermosphere. The background model is provided by the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) and the assimilation uses the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). An outline derivat...
Article
Full-text available
The first known weather forecast validation was thought to be by US Army Sergeant John Finley in July 1884. This article presents a validation by an anonymous author in the "Hibernian Journal: or, Chronicle of Liberty" from 1781, 103 years before Finley's paper.
Article
Full-text available
The standard approach to remove the effects of the ionosphere from neutral atmosphere GPS radio occultation measurements is to estimate a corrected bending angle from a combination of the L1 and L2 bending angles. This approach is known to result in systematic errors and an extension has been proposed to the standard ionospheric correction that is...
Article
Full-text available
Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. However, by their very nature, extreme events occur rarely and statistical methods are required to determine the probability o...
Conference Paper
The Advanced Ensemble electron density (Ne) Assimilation System (AENeAS) is an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation model which uses the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) as its background model. A successful EnKF model requires its ensemble members to span all possible observations. An ensemble...
Article
Full-text available
The standard approach to remove the effects of the ionosphere from neutral atmosphere GPS radio occultation measurements is to estimate a corrected bending angle from a combination of the L1 and L2 bending angles. This approach is known to result in systematic errors and an extension has been proposed to the standard ionospheric correction that is...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly,...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent, models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly,...
Conference Paper
There are a wide range of ionospheric models in active use and development around the globe, utilizing a number of modelling techniques. To gain an insight into the success of the various model types at specifying the ionosphere, two things are required: (1) metric(s) to measure the success criterion of the models and (2) common testing scenarios.
Article
This paper describes the construction and use of ‘modified Taylor diagrams’ and the comparison of three real-time assimilative ionospheric models. The paper expands on the work by McNamara et al. [2013] and serves as an addendum to that work. Modified Taylor diagrams provide an easy way of visualizing and comparing statistical information about a n...
Conference Paper
This paper compares and describes the ability of empirical, data assimilation and physics based ionospheric/thermospheric models to provide profiles of electron density below the peak of the F2 layer. A median empirical model, three data assimilation models and two different approaches to physics-based modelling are considered. A modified Taylor di...
Thesis
Full-text available
Space weather can have a negative impact on a number of radio frequency (RF) systems, with mitigation by ionospheric and thermospheric modelling one approach to improving system performance. However, before a model can be adopted operationally its performance must be quantified. Taylor diagrams, which show a model’s standard deviation and correlati...
Article
Full-text available
paper describes and compares two real-time assimilative ionospheric models, with an emphasis on their ability to provide accurate profiles of the electron density below the peak of the F2 layer at a midlatitude location, given automatically processed vertical incidence ionograms at a single location. The two models are specifically oriented toward...

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Projects

Project (1)
Project
This project aims to examine the nature of climatological coupling between the lower atmosphere and ionosphere.