Saul H. Hymans

Saul H. Hymans
University of Michigan | U-M · Department of Economics

PhD

About

31
Publications
3,592
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657
Citations
Citations since 2017
0 Research Items
90 Citations
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20172018201920202021202220230510152025
20172018201920202021202220230510152025

Publications

Publications (31)
Article
Full-text available
This paper provides a set of forecasts of United States international trade in services, both at the aggregate level and for four subcategories. These sectors are: travel, which is mostly tourist expenditures; passenger fares, which is mostly passenger air transportation; transportation, other than passenger transportation; and other private servic...
Article
This paper is about a country which has enjoyed a comparative advantage in producing some good(s) and suddenly finds its trading partners increasing their productivity in producing precisely those same goods; e.g., the U.S. with its big lead in many kinds of manufacturing production in the 1950s and 1960s, and the rest of the world catching up in t...
Chapter
This chapter discusses the methodology of IS-LM and AD-AS system reduction and illustrates its application to three U.S. econometric models: the Hickman-Coen (HC) Annual Growth Model, the Indiana University Econometric Model (EMUS), and the University of Michigan's Quarterly Econometric Model (MQEM). Bert Hickman compares the estimation of the shor...
Article
Forecasts from quarterly econometric models are typically revised on a monthly basis to reflect the information in current economic data. The revision process usually involves setting targets for the quarterly values of endogenous variables for which monthly observations are available and then altering the intercept terms in the quarterly forecasti...
Chapter
This chapter presents the line of analysis of model specification that Christopher Sims developed in 1972 on the basis of earlier work by Clive Granger (1969). The basic theorems—or implications of exogeneity, as they are referred to in this literature—are easily understood. If the vector x is exogenous in a dynamic model determining y, then y shou...
Article
An M2 money-demand function including the market value of government debt is estimated. The resulting equation both tracks the recent movements in money-demand and has implications for the efficacy of fiscal policy as a tool of stabilization policy.
Article
Low-income households - those toward which various income supplement programs are aimed - not only spend a large share of their incomes on food, but exhibit a higher income elasticity of demand for food than does the rest of the population. Further, a greater proportion of the marginal income generated via welfare payments and food subsidy programs...
Article
Forecasting a vector of jointly dependent random variables frequently leads to the consideration of a confidence ellipsoid [6]. Joint confidence intervals can then be derived if the projections of the ellipsoid on a set of coordinate axes can be calculated. In this paper we derive an expression for such projections and then present the application...
Article
Perhaps the traditional Controllers Congress measures of a good merchandising operation need re-examining. For, after all, profits are more precious than markup and a stock turn based on loss leaders puts no black ink on anybody's books. Capital budgeting based on contribution-return on inventory investment provides a new approach which could maxim...

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