Saud M. Al-Fattah

• PhD & Exec MBA
• Energy & Economic Consultant at Saudi Aramco

is paper presents optimized linear regression with multivariate adaptive regression splines (LR-MARS) for predicting crude oil demand in Saudi Arabia based on social spider optimization (SSO) algorithm. e SSO algorithm is applied to optimize LR-MARS performance by fine-tuning its hyperparameters. e proposed prediction model was trained and tested u...

This paper develops a rigorous and advanced data-driven model to describe, analyze, and forecast the global crude oil demand. The study deploys a hybrid approach of artificial intelligence techniques, namely, the genetic-algorithm, neural-network, and data-mining approach for time-series models (GANNATS). The GANNATS was developed and applied to tw...

This paper develops a novel AI and data-driven predictive model to analyze and forecast energy markets, and tests it for gasoline demand of Saudi Arabia. The AI model is based on a genetic algorithm (GA), artificial neural network (ANN), and data mining (DM) approach for time-series (TS) analysis, referred to as GANNATS. The GANNATS predictive mode...

This paper provides a review of the evolving role and characteristics of the global oil and gas companies, which increasingly come in a variety of flavors. It also surveys the different types of global oil and gas companies that include national oil companies (NOCs), international oil companies (IOCs), Independents, and oilfield services companies...

Oil market volatility affects macroeconomic conditions and can unduly affect the economies of oil-producing countries. Large price swings can be detrimental to producers and consumers, causing infrastructure and capacity investments to be delayed, employment losses, inefficient investments, and/or the growth potential for energy-producing countries...

Prediction of oil production decline rates is a vital task for oil fields development strategies, upstream investment opportunities, future production plans, and global oil market balance. The strategic question to be addressed in the oil market analysis is, how much new oil production capacity is required to be added to bridge the expected supply...

This paper develops a rigorous and advanced computational model to describe, analyze, and forecast global crude oil demand. The paper deploys a hybrid approach of artificial intelligence techniques: artificial neural network and genetic algorithms, to devise a methodological framework for developing forecasting models of global crude oil demand. We...

The beginning of the new century was marked with another petroleum boom and bust cycle. Oil prices were hovering around $18-20/bbl through most of the 1990s after which crude prices collapsed to $10/bbl in 1998 and 1999. Soon thereafter oil prices began a steady and, at times, sharp rise on the way to $147/bbl in July 2008. This climb was followed...

The complexity of the world oil market has increased dramatically in recent years and new approaches are needed to understand, model, and forecast oil prices today. In addition to the commencement of the financialization era in oil markets, there have been structural changes in the global oil market. Financial instruments are communicating informat...

This paper provides an assessment and a review of the national oil companies' (NOCs) business models, challenges and opportunities, their strategies and emerging trends. The role of the national oil company (NOC) continues to evolve as the global energy landscape changes to reflect variations in demand, discovery of new ultra-deep water oil deposit...

Modelling and forecasting crude oil price volatility is crucial in many financial and investment applications. The main purpose of this paper is to review and assess the current state of oil market volatility knowledge. It highlights the properties and characteristics of the oil price volatility that models seek to capture, and discuss the differen...

A system and method for modeling technology to predict accurately water-oil relative permeability uses a type of artificial neural network (ANN) known as a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) The ANN models of relative permeability are developed using experimental data from waterflood core test samples collected from carbonate reservoirs o...

During the 1970s, oil market models offered a framework for understanding the growing market power being exercised by major oil producing countries. Few such models have been developed in recent years. Moreover, most large institutions do not use models directly for explaining recent oil price trends or projecting their future levels. Models of oil...

Deemed as the "world's most important chokepoint" for oil and international shipping, the Strait of Hormuz is the main thoroughfare to and from the Gulf. In 2011, 17 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait each day, representing 20% of global oil trade. A disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would have severe consequen...

The complexity of the world oil market has increased dramatically in recent years and new approaches are needed to understand, model, and forecast oil prices today. In addition to the commencement of the financialization era in oil markets, there have been structural changes in the global oil market. Financial instruments are communicating informat...

Energy market volatility affects macroeconomic conditions and can unduly affect the economies of energy-producing countries. Large price swings can be detrimental to both producers and consumers. Market volatility can cause infrastructure and capacity investments to be delayed, employment losses, and inefficient investments. In sum, the growth pote...

This paper provides a review of the evolving role and characteristics of the oil and gas companies, which increasingly come in a variety of flavors. It also surveys the different types of oil and gas companies that include national oil companies (NOCs), international oil companies (IOCs), independents, and oilfield services companies (OFSCs). The c...

This paper provides an assessment and a review of the national oil companies' (NOCs) business models, challenges and opportunities, their strategies and emerging trends. The role of the national oil company (NOC) continues to evolve as the global energy landscape changes to reflect variations in demand, discovery of new ultra-deep water oil deposit...

This paper provides an assessment and a review of the national oil companies' (NOCs) business models, challenges and opportunities, their strategies and emerging trends. The role of the national oil company continues to evolve as the global energy landscape changes to reflect variations in demand, discovery of new ultra-deep water oil deposits, and...

The complexity of the world oil market has increased dramatically in recent years and new approaches are needed to understand, model, and forecast oil prices today. Many models have been explored and most of the papers and modeling projects referenced in this paper identify their own short-comings and opportunities for future improvements. The reas...

During the 1970s, oil market models offered a framework for understanding the growing market power being exercised by major oil producing countries. Few such models have been developed in recent years. Moreover, most large institutions do not use models directly for explaining recent oil price trends or projecting their future levels. Models of oil...

This book focuses on issues related to a suite of technologies known as Ò Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which can be used to capture and store underground large amounts of industrial CO2 emissions. It addresses how CCS should work, as well as where, why, and how these technologies should be deployed, emphasizing the gaps to be fi lled in terms...

The complexity of the world oil market has increased dramatically in recent years and new approaches are needed to understand, model, and forecast oil prices today. In addition to the commencement of the financialization era in oil markets, there have been structural changes in the global oil market. Financial instruments are communicating informat...

Modeling and forecasting crude oil price volatility is crucial in many financial and investment applications. The main purpose of this paper is to review and assess the current state of oil market volatility knowledge. It highlights the properties and characteristics of the oil price volatility that models seek to capture, and discuss the different...

Natural gas is an increasingly important source of the world’s energy. Estimating future supplies of this valuable commodity is an important economic and strategic endeavor. However, world gas supply forecasting has proved difficult because its exploration, transportation, and customer bases depend so heavily on fluctuating economic factors. Gas pr...

With today's high cost of exploration and development, oil and gas companies are seeking to maximize hydrocarbon recovery from their existing fields. Some have turned to integrated oilfield solutions as a means to increase production and more efficiently meet growing energy demand. One key objective is realizing truly integrated operations in an au...

No one can underestimate the importance of crude oil in the modern world today. It is considered the key foundation of the world's first trillion-dollar industry and the principal item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. To truly appreciate the significance of this precious commodity, just imagine the day when all of the world...

No one can underestimate the importance of crude oil in the modern world today. It is considered the key foundation of the world's first trillion-dollar industry and the principal item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. To truly appreciate the significance of this precious commodity, just imagine the day when all of the world...

Determination of relative permeability data is required for almost all calculations of fluid flow in petroleum reservoirs. Water-oil relative permeability data play important roles in characterizing the simultaneous two-phase flow in porous rocks and predicting the performance of immiscible displacement processes in oil reservoirs. They are used, a...

This article describes solutions developed using a dynamic surveillance tool to automate several workflow processes of the reservoir management, production engineering, and Exploration and Petroleum Engineering Center – Advanced Research Center (EXPEC ARC) at Saudi Aramco. The objective is to provide improved efficiency in field management practice...

Determination of relative permeability data is required for almost all calculations of fluid flow in petroleum reservoirs. Water-oil relative permeability data play important roles in characterizing the simultaneous two-phase flow in porous rocks and predicting the performance of immiscible displacement processes in oil reservoirs. They are used, a...

Faced with diminishing supplies of domestic crude oil and increased demand for energy, the US has come to rely on imported crude and domestic supplies of natural gas. During the last decade US natural gas production has risen about 10%, but it still does not succeed to meet demand. This supply shortage has resulted in significant increases in natur...

This paper describes solutions developed using a dynamic surveillance tool to automate several workflow processes of the reservoir management, production engineering, and R&D Center at Saudi Aramco. The objective is to provide improved efficiency in field management practices, while enhancing collaboration between reservoir and production engineers...

Faced with diminishing supplies of domestic crude oil and increased demand for energy, the US has come to rely on imported crude and domestic supplies of natural gas. During the last decade US natural gas production has risen about 10%, but it still fails to meet demand. This failure has resulted in significant increases in natural gas prices. We b...

Al-Fattah is a petroleum engineering systems analyst in the Reservoir Engineering Systems Division, Petroleum Engineering Applications Services Dept. (PEASD). He previously worked as a reservoir engineer in the Reservoir Management Department and as a PE systems analyst in the Simulation Systems Division, PEASD. His interests include reservoir engi...

Relative permeability data are essential for almost all calculations of fluid flow in petroleum engineering. Water/oil relative permeability curves play important roles in characterizing the simultaneous two-phase flow in porous rocks and predicting the performance of immiscible displacement processes in oil reservoirs. This paper presents new empi...

The industrial and residential market for natural gas produced in the United States has become increasingly significant. Within the past ten years the wellhead value of produced natural gas has rivaled and sometimes exceeded the value of crude oil. Forecasting natural gas supply is an economically important and challenging endeavor. This paper pres...

The industrial and residential market for natural gas produced in the United States has become increasingly significant. Within the past ten years the wellhead value of produced natural gas has rivaled and sometimes exceeded the value of crude oil. Forecasting natural gas supply is an economically important and challenging endeavor. This paper pres...

World gas supply forecasting has proved difficult because its exploration, transportation, and customer bases depend so heavily on fluctuating economic factors. Our recent study showed that the conventional Hubbert model with one complete production cycle is not appropriate to use to forecast gas-production trends for most gas-producing countries....

Natural gas is an increasingly important source of the world's energy. Estimating future supplies of this valuable commodity is an important economic and strategic endeavor. This paper analyses historical natural gas production trends for the 53 countries that produce virtually all of the world's natural gas. Using a multicyclic Hubbert method, we...

Natural gas is an increasingly important source of the world's energy. Estimating future supplies of this valuable commodity is an important economic and strategic endeavor. This paper analyses historical natural gas production trends for the 53 countries that produce virtually all of the world's natural gas. Using a multicyclic Hubbert method, we...

This paper evaluates several empirical correlations for estimating the bubblepoint oil formation volume factor (FVF) for worldwide application. A total of 674 experimentally obtained pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) data gathered from different published sources is used for analysis of correlated parameters of physical properties and for compariso...