Sara K. McBride

United States Geological Survey | USGS · Earthquake Science Center

In Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake risk and preparedness information has been provided for many years, including before, during and after the 2010-11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Information has been modified over time, depending on the earthquake context, and public appetite for information given ongoing aftershocks. To inform future inform...

Given the earthquake risk on the West Coast of the United States, individuals and communities require a basic understanding of ShakeAlert earthquake early warning technology, which may provide crucial seconds of warning. Free choice learning environments (FCLEs), such as museums, public libraries, and national parks, are uniquely positioned to expa...

Aftershock forecasts can help reduce seismic risk by communicating how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate this information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual pr...

As of May 2021, rollout of public alerting of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) System, has been completed in Washington, Oregon, and California. Critical questions remain about what people understand and expect from ShakeAlert, including if they know what to do when they receive an alert. To evaluate whether the ShakeAlert system has b...

Aftershock forecasts can help reduce seismic risk by communicating how many aftershocks can be expected following a large earthquake, and how the expected number of aftershocks evolves over time and space. Prior work finds that graphical forecast products may communicate this information better than only text or numbers. To identify which visual pr...

Following the 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, a time-varying seismic hazard model (KSHM) was developed to inform decision-making for the reinstatement of road and rail networks in the northern South Island. The source model is the sum of a gridded 100-year earthquake clustering model and an updated fault source model. The gridded model comprises lon...

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was notable for its variety of large and spatially distinct hazards, simultaneously affecting three geographically disparate, culturally diverse regions in Hawaiʻi. We conducted a pilot study, consisting of 18 semi-structured interviews, two survey responses, and several informal conversations with Hawaiʻi resid...

ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning (EEW) system for the West Coast of the United States, attempts to provides crucial warnings before strong shaking occurs. However, because the alerts are triggered only when an earthquake is already in progress, and the alert latencies and delivery times are platform dependent, the time between these warning...

Misinformation carries the potential for immense damage to public understanding of science and for evidence-based decision making at an individual and policy level. Our research explores the following questions within seismology: which claims can be considered misinformation, which are supported by a consensus, and which are still under scientific...

In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to peopl...

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are relatively new technologies having first emerged as regional systems in the 1990s. Japan was the first nation to develop and implement a nationwide system in October 2007, and in the United States, ShakeAlert ® became available on the entire length of the US West Coast in May 2021. Assessing how EEW is per...

In addition to academic curricula, schools offer regular drills to train young people and adult staff on what to do in an emergency or disaster. Earthquake drills in the United States currently recommend the protective action “drop, cover, and hold on” in the event of shaking. Yet, little is known about whether this guidance is followed in schools...

The collection of online videos and imagery to use in disaster reconnaissance is increasing in frequency, due to accessibility of platforms and the ubiquitous nature of smartphones and recording devices. In this short article, we explore the processes, goals, and utility of Virtual Emergency Reconnaissance Teams (VERTs) to collect footage and image...

Over the past few years early earthquake warning systems have been incorporated into earthquake preparation efforts in many locations around the globe. These systems provide an excellent opportunity for advanced warning of ground shaking and other hazards associated with earthquakes. This study aims to optimize this advanced warning for individuals...

Approximately 143 million people in the United States live in areas of significant earthquake hazard, with one-third of the earthquake risk concentrated in California, Oregon, and Washington. The Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates that average annualized losses from earthquakes nationwide is~$6.1 billion. In the next 30 years, California...

We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW sha...

We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW sha...

Warning systems are essential for providing people with information so they can take protective action in response to perils. Systems need to be human-centered, which requires an understanding of the context within which humans operate. Therefore, our research sought to understand the human context for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Aotearoa New...

This chapter examines the nature, geography, and impact of earthquakes. These occur as a burst of sudden ground shaking created by the release of accumulated stress along a fault, often influenced by movement of the world’s tectonic plates. Ground shaking from an earthquake can generate additional hazards, including landslides, liquefaction, and ts...

Studies from a variety of disciplines reveal that humor can be a useful method to reduce stress and increase compassion, connection, and empathy between agencies and people they serve during times of crisis. Despite this growing evidence base, humor's use during a geohazard (earthquake, volcanoes, landslides, and tsunami) to aid scientific agencies...

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning...

Cite this article as van der Elst, N. J., The M w 6.4 Southwest Puerto Rico Earthquake of 7 January 2020 was accompanied by a robust fore-and aftershock sequence. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has issued regular aftershock forecasts for more than a year since the mainshock, available on a public webpage. Forecasts were accompanied by interpreti...

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on d...

Free-choice learning environments, such as museums, national parks, interpretive trails, and visitor centers, are trusted sources of information in their communities and support lifelong learning. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and, in turn, may increase enga...

Earthquake early warning systems (EEW) are becoming increasingly available or are in development throughout the world. As these systems develop, it is important to provide evidence-based recommendations for protective action so people know how to protect themselves when they receive an alert. However, many factors need to be considered when develop...

The HayWired scenario—a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 rupture of the Hayward Fault and an aftershock sequence—is initiated in the east bay part of the San Francisco Bay region of California and is within 25 miles of Silicon Valley, a global center of internet commerce and communications technology. The scenario is named, in part, to recognize society’s...

A deadly cascade A catastrophic landslide in Uttarakhand state in India on February 2021 damaged two hydropower plants, and more than 200 people were killed or are missing. Shugar et al. describe the cascade of events that led to this disaster. A massive rock and ice avalanche roared down a Himalayan valley, turning into a deadly debris flow upstre...

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of earthquakes that occur...

Previous research has shown that online social networks can provide valuable insights regarding collective human responses to extreme natural events, such as earthquakes. Most previous studies focused on one large earthquake, while the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes involved two significant earthquakes occurring within a short period of time (a M6.4 f...

The 2020 Mw 5.8 Lone Pine earthquake, the largest earthquake on the Owens Valley fault zone, eastern California, since the nineteenth century, ruptured an extensional stepover in that fault. Owens Valley separates two normal‐faulting regimes, the western margin of the Great basin and the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada, forming a complex seismo...

Although small earthquakes are expected to produce weak shaking, ground motion is highly variable and there are outlier earthquakes that generate more shaking than expected—sometimes significantly more. We explore datasets of M 0.5–8.3 earthquakes to determine the relative impact of frequent, smaller-magnitude earthquakes that rarely produce strong...

Abstract Earthquake early warning (EEW) can be used to detect earthquakes and provide advanced notification of strong shaking, allowing pre-emptive actions to be taken that not only benefit infrastructure but reduce injuries and fatalities. Currently Aotearoa New Zealand does not have a nationwide EEW system, so a survey of the public was undertake...

Although small earthquakes are expected to produce weak shaking, ground motion is highly variable and there are outlier earthquakes that generate more shaking than expected—sometimes significantly more. We explore datasets of M 0.5–8.3 earthquakes to determine the relative impact of frequent, smaller-magnitude earthquakes that rarely produce strong...

Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time-dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text-based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizati...

Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time-dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text-based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizati...

This paper was written to help advance convergence-oriented research in the hazards and disaster field. It highlights areas where additional research could contribute new knowledge to the response to and recovery from the pandemic and other disasters yet to come. Questions about the research topics and ethical and methodological issues highlighted...

This research agenda explored how the impacts of COVID-19 may affect the ability of practitioners and communities to prepare for, cope with, and respond to extreme weather events and geohazards across the globe. A working group of 78 scholars identified ways in which COVID-19 amplifies or attenuates risks to people and infrastructure associated wit...

As ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the U.S., begins its transition to operational public alerting, we explore how post-alert messaging might represent system performance. Planned post-alert messaging can provide timely, crucial information to both emergency managers and ShakeAlert operators as well as calibrate...

This report builds on a wide variety of prior documents (situational reports, published articles, technical reviews, small team “hot wash”9 exercises) that have already been generated by USGS activities concerned with the 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption and goes beyond pre existing sources by using two different survey instruments to gather direct in...

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a national capability for aftershock forecasting after significant earthquakes. Use of this capability began in August 2018, and the 30 November 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, earthquake provided the first opportunity to apply this capability to a damaging earthquake in an urban area of the United Sta...

In the minutes to hours after a major earthquake, such as the recent 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage event, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) produces a suite of interconnected earthquake products that provides diverse information ranging from basic earthquake source parameters to loss estimates. The 2018 Anchorage earthquake is the first major domestic eart...

Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task.Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2 ≤ M ≤ 4:3 earthquakes,which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the SanAndreas fault c...

Debris flows generate seismic signals that contain valuable information about events as they unfold. Though seismic waves have been used for along-channel debris-flow and lahar monitoring systems for decades, it has proven difficult to move beyond detection to more quantitative characterizations of flow parameters and event size. This is for two pr...

To reduce future earthquake injuries and casualties, it is important that people understand how their behavior, during and immediately following earthquake shaking, exposes them to increased risk of injury or death. Research confirms that protective actions can reduce injuries and that prior training can help prepare people to take appropriate acti...

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately est...

The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) began with the Darfield earthquake on 4 September 2010. Continual large and small aftershocks since that time have meant communities have cycled through repeated periods of impact, response and recovery. Scientific communication about aftershocks during such a prolonged sequence has faced distinct challenges...

In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, evidence shows that people respond positively to receiving basic earthquake information quickly by science authorities[1]. This evidence, gathered from numerous aftershock sequences in New Zealand from 2010-2016, indicates that earthquake forecasts, while complex, can also be a critical component...

We undertook a survey to explore scientists' preferences for guidance, from the social science literatures, on how to communicate earthquake forecasts, with a particular emphasis on the post-earthquake context. The development of new guidance for scientists will distill the results of previous research into usable materials for scientists who are (...

OEF workshop results.

Effective input of earthquake science and engineering information into decision making : results of a workshop discussion, 26 April 2017

Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) involves the updating of information about the future occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes, and the officially sanctioned dissemination of this information. GeoNet is the official source of geological hazard information in New Zealand. GeoNet began regularly publishing time-varying probabilities of...

The M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake in 2016 presented a number of challenges to science agencies and institutions throughout New Zealand. The earthquake was complex, with 21 faults rupturing throughout the North Canterbury and Marlborough landscape, generating a localised seven metre tsunami and triggering thousands of landslides. With many areas isolated...

Exploring communication and emergency management messaging pre-Canterbury (Christchurch) earthquake sequence to determine what improvements could be made to future public education initiatives and products.

Survey on New Zealand ShakeOut

Volcanic ashfall can be damaging and disruptive to critical infrastructure including electricity generation, transmission and distribution networks, drinking-water and wastewater treatment plants, roads, airports and communications networks. There is growing evidence that a range of preparedness and mitigation strategies can reduce ashfall impacts...

New Zealand’s Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these...

In August 2012, Wellington City Council organised a series of community briefings entitled “Wellington Rocks” to discuss earthquake risk. As part of the briefings, GNS Science scientists were invited to inform members of the public regarding the recent results of the Wellington “It’s Our Fault” project. The presentations were 1.5 hours long and inc...

Eastern Washington State survey.

The city of Wellington, New Zealand’s capital, is exposed to a wide range of potentially devastating impacts from various natural hazards. It is situated in one of the most active seismic regions in New Zealand, creating a significant earthquake risk. Another hazard to which it is exposed is that of tsunami from local and distant sources. Given the...

Review of Wellington region's council plans for risk.

On February 22, 2011 at 12:51 pm an earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale struck the city of Christchurch, population 376,700 in the South Island of New Zealand. This followed a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in September 2010, but the shallowness (5km) and proximity of the February earthquake to the central city, resulted in far more devastation...