Samuel A Swift

Samuel A Swift
University of California, Berkeley | UCB · Institute of Business and Economics Research (IBER)

PhD, Organizational Behavior and Theory

About

10
Publications
8,967
Reads
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410
Citations
Citations since 2016
3 Research Items
360 Citations
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20162017201820192020202120220204060
20162017201820192020202120220204060
20162017201820192020202120220204060
Additional affiliations
June 2012 - present
University of California, Berkeley
Position
  • PostDoc Position

Publications

Publications (10)
Article
Full-text available
This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament s...
Article
Full-text available
We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Forecasters were randomly assigned to either prediction markets (continuous doubl...
Article
We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Forecasters were randomly assigned to either prediction markets (continuous doubl...
Article
Full-text available
Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested and found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking. Probabi...
Article
Full-text available
When explaining others' behaviors, achievements, and failures, it is common for people to attribute too much influence to disposition and too little influence to structural and situational factors. We examine whether this tendency leads even experienced professionals to make systematic mistakes in their selection decisions, favoring alumni from aca...
Article
Individuals, groups, and societies all experience conflict, and attempt to resolve it in numerous ways. The Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution brings together scholars from multiple disciplines to offer perspectives on the current state and future challenges in negotiation and conflict resolution. It aims to act as an aid in identifyin...
Article
Full-text available
Performance (such as a course grade) is a joint function of an individual's ability (such as intelligence) and the situation (such as the instructor's grading leniency). Prior research has documented a human bias toward dispositional inference, which ascribes performance to individual ability, even when it is better explained through situational in...
Article
People routinely assume correspondence between acts and dispositions, a systematic error prior research has labeled the "correspondence bias." Four laboratory studies investigate the robustness and generality of this tendency, and suggest that it may be even more fundamental than prior theories have supposed. Most of the research documenting the co...

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