Samantha Hill

UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre · Science

Crossing “safe” limits for biodiversity loss The planetary boundaries framework attempts to set limits for biodiversity loss within which ecological function is relatively unaffected. Newbold et al. present a quantitative global analysis of the extent to which the proposed planetary boundary has been crossed (see the Perspective by Oliver). Using o...

Many metrics can be used to capture trends in biodiversity, and in turn these metrics inform biodiversity indicators. Sampling biases, genuine differences between metrics, or both, can often cause indicators to appear to be in conflict. This lack of congruence confuses policy makers and the general public, hindering effective responses to the biodi...

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and bi...

Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. Recent global assessments of living nature (1, 2) and climate (3) show worsening trends and a rapidly narrowing window for action. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recently announced that none of the 20 Aichi targets for biodiversity it set in 2010 has been reached and only six have bee...

The world's forests are crucially important for both biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation. New forest status and forest change spatial layers using remotely sensed data have revolutionised forest monitoring globally, and provide fine-scale deforestation alerts that can be actioned in near-real time. However, existing products are restri...

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold...

The Convention on Biological Biodiversity (CBD) exists as a major multilateral environmental agreement to safeguard biodiversity and “live in harmony with nature”. To deliver it, strategies and frameworks are set out in regular agreements that are then implemented at the national scale. However, we are not on track to achieve overall goals, and fra...

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is a worldwide plan to urgently address and reverse biodiversity loss, intending to achieve a harmonious relationship between humanity and nature by 2050. This paper seeks to contribute to operationalising the framework, specifically concerning biodiversity conservation and nature's contributions t...

Although species are being lost at alarming rates, previous research has provided conflicting results on the extent and even direction of global biodiversity change at the local scale. Here, we assessed the ability to detect global biodiversity trends using local species richness and how it is affected by the number of monitoring sites, sampling in...

Background Land-use is a major driver of changes in biodiversity worldwide, but studies have overwhelmingly focused on above-ground taxa: the effects on soil biodiversity are less well known, despite the importance of soil organisms in ecosystem functioning. We modelled data from a global biodiversity database to compare how the abundance of soil-d...

We present a novel index that represents, in one combined metric, the integrity of terrestrial ecosystems globally at 1km2 resolution: the Ecosystem Integrity Index (EII). The index provides a simple, yet scientifically robust, way of measuring, monitoring and reporting on ecosystem integrity at any geographical scale. It is formed of three compone...

Interest in economically and ecologically sustainable cocoa has grown in recent years. Cocoa-based agroforestry systems are promoted as a potential win-win option for long-term yields, multiple benefits, and the preservation of biodiversity. Yet, even though recent studies have shown such agroforests can support biodiversity, their value relative t...

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is central in biodiversity conservation, but insufficient resources hamper its long-term growth, updating, and consistency. Models or automated calculations can alleviate those challenges by providing standardised estimates required for assessments, or prioriti...

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature’s contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity co...

The lack of urgent action to reverse biodiversity loss is partly due to the complex nature of biodiversity as a feature of our planet. Subsequently, policymakers receive an often-confusing variety of narratives on why biodiversity matters, which makes it difficult to link biodiversity loss and risks to the attainment of sustainable development. Mak...

The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will probably include a goal to stabilize and restore the status of species. Its delivery would be facilitated by making the actions required to halt and reverse species loss spatially explicit. Here, we develop a species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric...

Biodiversity urgently needs a new comprehensive measurement, comparable to Gross Domestic Product in economics, to gain national policy traction and drive action, say scientists. In this report led by the UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) in partnership with the Luc Hoffmann Institute, a team of scientists,...

Aim Understanding broad‐scale ecological patterns and processes is necessary if we are to mitigate the consequences of anthropogenically driven biodiversity degradation. However, such analyses require large datasets and current data collation methods can be slow, involving extensive human input. Given rapid and ever‐increasing rates of scientific p...

Global forest assessments use forest area as an indicator of biodiversity status, which may mask below-canopy pressures driving forest biodiversity loss and ‘empty forest’ syndrome. The status of forest biodiversity is important not only for species conservation but also because species loss can have consequences for forest health and carbon storag...

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-us...

The main direct drivers of biodiversity loss – land/sea-use change, direct exploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive alien species – are likely to have their greatest impacts on different kinds of species and ecosystems. I will discuss the likely consequences of these ‘signatures’, combined with the drivers’ relative importance in recent...

Integrated high-resolution maps of carbon stocks and biodiversity that identify areas of potential co-benefits for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation can help facilitate the implementation of global climate and biodiversity commitments at local levels. However, the multi-dimensional nature of biodiversity presents a major chall...

Human land use has caused substantial declines in global species richness. Evidence from different taxonomic groups and geographic regions suggests that land use does not equally impact all organisms within terrestrial ecological communities, and that different functional groups of species may respond differently. In particular, we expect large car...

The workshop drew on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-building exercise initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models, and other biodiversity modelling initiatives such as the ISIMIP project2 working on adding biodiversity to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios framework, the 'bending the curve' initiative3 l...

Global forest assessments use forest area as a proxy indicator of biodiversity status, which may mask below-canopy pressures driving forest biodiversity loss and ‘empty forest’ syndrome. The status of forest biodiversity is important not only for species conservation but also because species loss can have consequences for forest health and carbon s...

Global forest assessments use forest area as a proxy indicator of biodiversity status, which may mask below-canopy pressures driving forest biodiversity loss and ‘empty forest’ syndrome. The status of forest biodiversity is important not only for species conservation but also because species loss can have consequences for forest health and carbon s...

To inform governmental discussions on the nature of a revised Strategic Plan for Biodiversity of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), we reviewed the relevant literature and assessed the framing of the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets in the current strategic plan. We asked international experts from nongovernmental organizations, academia, g...

This is the submitted version of a manuscript, submitted to Nature Ecology and Evolution, regarding the Biodiversity Intactness Index.

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the int...

Tracking progress towards biodiversity targets requires indicators that are sensitive to changes at policy-relevant scales, can easily be aggregated to any spatial scale and are simple to understand. The Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), which estimates the average abundance of a diverse set of organisms in a given area relative to their referen...

• The Lake Victoria basin (LVB) and its tributary rivers are a major biodiversity hot spot, containing at least 234 native fish species, 135 native aquatic plant species, and 50 native freshwater mollusc species. Lake Victoria itself is home to around 500 fish species, most of which are haplochromine cichlids. • The LVB is increasingly under threat...

Mapping risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services from (potential) cocoa expansion

Human use of the land (for agriculture and settlements) has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity globally. However, not all species are adversely affected by land use, and indeed, some benefit from the creation of novel habitat. Geographically rare species may be more negatively affected by land use than widespread species, but data limita...

Sensitivity of the estimated effect of land use on the abundance of widely and narrowly distributed species to variation in quality of underlying range-size estimates. Because sample size was much reduced in the most stringent subsets of the data, land use in these models was classified more coarsely than in the main models, into primary vegetation...

Effects of proximity to roads, human population density, and length of landscape use by humans on RCAR. Separate effects are shown for each land use because interaction terms were significant (all P < 0.05). For clarity, shading shows ±0.5 × standard error rather than the 95% confidence interval. Distance to the nearest road is shown here as the ra...

Locations of sites for subsets of the data of increasing stringency in terms of the quality of underlying range-size estimates. Data quality reflected variation in the quality of species’ range-size estimates and was measured as the estimated inventory completeness of GBIF records for each of 4 taxonomic groups (trachaeophytes, amphibians, mammals,...

Effects of land use on RCAR, estimated based on GBIF-based measures of range size gridded at different resolutions. Effects of land use and land-use intensity using RCAR based on range occupancy using GBIF records, gridded at a spatial resolution of 110 km × 110 km (A), 55 km × 55 km (B), and 11 km × 11 km (C). Based on range extent using GBIF reco...

Spatial autocorrelation in the model residuals. A Moran’s I test was applied to the residuals from the final models, dividing the residuals into the individual underlying surveys. The distribution of P values across the tests for each of the surveys is shown here, for measures of RCAR and RAR based on different underlying estimates of range size—ra...

List of all references for underlying community data. These references are a subset of those in the PREDICTS database [21]. (DOCX)

Spatial patterns in the residuals of the final model of RCAR as a function of human pressures. A map of each site included in the final model, where point colours represent the value of the model residuals for each site (blue = low; red = high), showing no discernible spatial pattern (A). The outline map is based on the World Bank map of river basi...

Statistics explaining geographical variation in the strength of the response of RCAR to human land use. Linear models were used to explain the strength of the response of RCAR as a function of variables hypothesized to drive observed tropical-temperate differences. Variables considered were geographic zone (tropical versus temperate) itself, and 3...

Definitions of the major land-use classes. Each site was classified into one of these classes based on the description of the habitat where the biodiversity sample was taken, as given in the underlying papers from which the biodiversity data were obtained (see S1 Text). (DOCX)

Locations of surveys, and taxonomic and geographic representativeness of the data. The location of each survey whose data were included in the analysis (A), shown in the Lambert cylindrical equal area projection. Point diameters are proportional to the (loge) number of sites sampled by each survey and are translucent so areas of opaque color indica...

Correspondence between estimates of RCAR based on different estimates of species’ range size. Estimates of range occupancy derived from records in the GBIF database were gridded at spatial resolutions of 110 km × 110 km, 55 km × 55 km, and 11 km × 11 km (A–C). A measure of range extent (a conceptually different measure of range size compared with t...

Comparison of the effects of human land use on RCAR and on species richness, for individual underlying studies. Separate models were fitted for species richness and RCAR as a function of land use. For these models, land use was classified coarsely as either natural (primary or secondary vegetation) or human (plantation forests, croplands, pastures,...

Sensitivity of the estimated effect of land use on RCAR to variation in quality of underlying range-size estimates. Because sample size was much reduced in the most stringent subsets of the data, land use in these models was classified more coarsely than in the main models into primary vegetation, secondary vegetation, and human land uses (combinin...

Statistics explaining geographical variation in the strength of the response of RAR to human land use. Linear models were used to explain the strength of the response of RAR as a function of variables hypothesized to drive observed tropical-temperate differences. Variables considered were geographic zone (tropical versus temperate) itself, and 3 mo...

Criteria used to classify land use and land-use intensity. The classification was made based on the description of the habitat given in the underlying papers from which the data were obtained (see S1 Text). (DOCX)

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts o...

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts o...

Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity is expected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help design the pathways that sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach has so far been hampered by the complexity associated with combini...

Although people have modified the world around us throughout human history, the "Great Acceleration" has seen drivers such as land conversion, exploitation of natural populations, species introductions, pollution and human-induced climate change placing biodiversity under increasing pressure. In this paper we examine 1) how terrestrial species comm...

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts o...

p>Land use has already reshaped local biodiversity on Earth, with effects expected to increase as human populations continue to grow in both numbers and prosperity. An accurate depiction of the state of biodiversity on our planet, combined with identifying the mechanisms driving local biodiversity change, underpins our ability to predict how differ...

Land use has already reshaped local biodiversity on Earth, with effects expected to increase as human populations continue to grow in both numbers and prosperity. An accurate depiction of the state of biodiversity on our planet, combined with identifying the mechanisms driving local biodiversity change, underpins our ability to predict how differen...

The PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) has collated ecological survey data from hundreds of published biodiversity comparisons of sites facing different land-use and related pressures, and used the resulting taxonomically and geographically broad database (abundance and occurrence data fo...

Land-use change is the single biggest driver of biodiversity loss in the tropics. Biodiversity models can be useful tools to inform policymakers and conservationists of the likely response of species to anthropogenic pressures, including land-use change. However, such models generalize biodiversity responses across wide areas and many taxa, potenti...

The world is currently experiencing a period of rapid, human-driven biodiversity loss. Over the past decade, numerous metrics for biodiversity have been used to create indicators to track change in biodiversity. However, our ability to predict future changes has been limited. In this study, we use two very different models to predict the status and...

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used t...

Figure S1: Database schema. Diversity data in yellow, GIS data in green and Catalogue of Life data in blue. The diversity tables datasource, study, site, measuredtaxon and diversitymeasurement follow the structure described in ‘Methods’ in the main text and in Hudson et al. (2014): a datasource is associated with one or more study records, each of...

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used t...

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used t...

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used t...

In this review we assessed the various approaches to measuring biodiversity at the species level and developing models that can be used to assess the present patterns and project these into the future against possible scenarios. The main categories of approaches are: biodiversity measures, biodiversity models, surrogates of biodiversity. This publi...

Aim Understanding the impact of land use change within assemblages is fundamental to mitigation policies at local and regional scale. Here, we aim to quantify how site‐level terrestrial assemblages are responding to land use change in Colombia a mega‐diverse country and to project future biodiversity under different scenarios of land use change ass...

Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land u...