Sally Brown

Environment Agency

The Topical Collection “Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries” provides a harmonised assessment of risks to human and natural systems due to global warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India) using a consistent set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. It compares risks in 21...

Coastal defences have long provided protection from erosion and flooding to cities, towns and villages. In many parts of the world, continued defence is being questioned due to both environmental, sustainability and economic considerations. This is exemplified in England and Wales, where strategic Shoreline Management Plans envisage realignment of...

Low-lying atoll nations (e.g. the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands) are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially sea-level rise (SLR). Stringent climate change mitigation will slow but not stop SLR, which will continue for centuries, mandating additional long-term adaptation. At the same time, urbanisation is concentrating popula...

Increasing population size and economic dependence on the coastal zone, coupled with the growing need for residential, agricultural, industrial, commercial and green space infrastructure, are key drivers of land reclamation. Until now, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the global distribution of land use on reclaimed space at the coast....

Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to...

The management of coastal flood risk is adapting to meet the challenges and increased risks posed by population change as well as by climate change, especially sea level rise. Protection is being targeted to areas where the benefits are highest, while elsewhere there is a shift towards more localized “living with floods” and “resilience” approaches...

Small island developing States, such as those in the Pacific, are often prone to multiple hazards that have potential to result in disaster and / or restrict development. Hazard data can be limited in resolution or omitted in or near SIDS’ coasts, but a growing and improved range of datasets are becoming available. Through an analysis of approximat...

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne dise...

Without adaptation, sea-level rise (SLR) will put more people at risk of flooding. This requires a timely and adequate commitment to adaptation. In this paper, we show how adaptation needs to unfold over time to manage climate-induced SLR. We use a novel scenario-neutral approach, applied globally and subsequently combined with SLR and population s...

Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Sha...

Drivers of environmental change are causing novel combinations of pressures on ecological systems. Prediction in ecology often uses understanding of past conditions to make predictions to the future, but such an approach can breakdown when future conditions have not previously been encountered. Individual‐based models (IBMs) consider ecological sys...

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01064-z.

To mark the tenth anniversary of Nature Climate Change, we asked a selection of researchers across the broad range of climate change disciplines to share their thoughts on notable developments of the past decade, as well as their hopes and expectations for the coming years of discovery. Much has changed in the last 10 years since the Nature Climate...

Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world’s coasts. Although this affects local rates of sea-level rise, assessments of the coastal impacts of subsidence are lacking on a global scale. Here, we qua...

Resilience is widely seen as an important attribute of coastal systems and, as a concept, is increasingly prominent in policy documents. However, there are conflicting ideas on what constitutes resilience and its operationalisation as an overarching principle of coastal management remains limited. In this paper, we show how resilience to coastal fl...

In the UK, coastal flooding and erosion are two of the primary climate-related hazards to communities, businesses, and infrastructure. To better address the ramifications of those hazards, now and into the future, the UK needs to transform its scattered, fragmented coastal data resources into a systematic, integrated, quality-controlled, openly acc...

In the UK, coastal flooding and erosion are two of the primary climate-related hazards to communities, businesses, and infrastructure. To better address the ramifications of those hazards, now and into the future, the UK needs to transform its scattered, fragmented coastal data resources into a systematic, integrated, quality-controlled, openly acc...

Resilience is widely seen as an important attribute of coastal systems and, as a concept, is increasingly prominent in policy documents. However, there are conflicting ideas on what constitutes resilience and its operationalisation as an overarching principle of coastal management remains limited. In this paper, we show how resilience to coastal fl...

Flooding is the most damaging natural hazard in England today. Coastal flood risk management aims to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding through adaptation measures including spatial planning, engineered hard and soft interventions, and insurance. Yet there are few reviews which collectively assess these measures. This paper aims to characterise...

Natural World Heritage Sites (NWHS), which are of Outstanding Universal Value, are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic pressures. This is especially true for coastal NWHS, which are additionally subject to erosion and flooding. This paper assesses shoreline change from 1984 to 2016 within the boundaries of 67 designated sites, prov...

Climate change impacts on coastal zones could be significant unless adaptation is undertaken. One particular macroeconomic dimension of sea level rise (SLR) impacts that has received no attention so far is the potential stress of SLR impacts on public budgets. Adaptation will require increased public expenditure to protect assets at risk and could...

We thank Törnqvist et al. for engaging with our modelling study on the future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise (SLR) and their careful and critical discussion of the presented methods and results. However, we disagree with their suggestion that our modelling approach is inadequate, a claim which relies on two arguments: (1) the...

If you are writing an impact case study for REF2021, you may have found identifying the impact and writing the narrative very challenging. I certainly have! The suggestions in this A-Z have helped me form my narrative in the studies that I support. If you have any suggestions or thoughts on how the improve, or can share tips, I would love to hear f...

The flood risk management (FRM) doctrine that drives coastal flood preparedness in England acknowledges that not all floods can be prevented. Subsequently, beyond flood prevention other measures such as control, acceptance, adaptation, and redistribution constitute part of both national management policy and local policy implementation. The aim of...

If you are writing an impact case study for REF2021, you may have found identifying the impact and writing the narrative very challenging. I certainly have! The suggestions in this A-Z have helped me form my narrative in the studies that I support. If you have any suggestions or thoughts on how the improve, or can share tips, I would love to hear f...

China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptat...

Resource: I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This presentation creates an overview of some of the dos and don’ts in writing a case study, plus a final crib sheet to check what needs to go into each section of the case study. I am doing...

Resource: I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. Getting the writing right, and in the correct style is a challenge, balancing powerful words and language with the content and claims of your impact. This presentation aims to inspire appropr...

The Maldives (land elevation approximately 1m above mean sea-level) is often associated with the threat of rising sea-levels. Land scarcity due to population pressure is also a major issue. In the late 1990s a new 1.9km^2 2m high artificial island, Hulhumalé was created for urban expansion, including an allowance for sea-level rise. This paper asse...

I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. Writing an impact summary can make or break a case study, and really important to show the impact from the start of the case study. This presentation contains some analysis and tips in writing the impa...

I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is about writing the underpinning research, a making sure it runs smoothly into the details of impact section. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to gener...

I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is about writing the details of impact, being clear what you have achieved and the academic and non-academic evidence that supports this. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practica...

Resource: I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is about writing the details of impact, being clear what you have achieved and the academic and non-academic evidence that supports this. I am doing this as I am learning, from a ver...

Resource: I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. A common issue is for academics to disentangle their impact story. I’ve added several ideas to do this, from drawing to bringing out emotions. An impact-evidence grid helps put all the eviden...

I’ve collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. A common issue is for academics to disentangle their impact story. I’ve added several ideas to do this, from drawing to bringing out emotions. An impact-evidence grid helps put all the evidence in plac...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. Testimonials can be great in filling the gaps from outputs to impacts, and illustrating the pathway. This presentation shows the values of testimonials and adds some suggestions on how to go around ask...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This presentation is all about the evidence you can use to record impact, which may ultimately end up in your impact case study. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how...

The need to stabilize global climate Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expan...

Resource: I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. But how do we achieve impact? I’ve put together a few slides which define activities which may generate impact. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to gen...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. But how do we achieve impact? I’ve put together a few slides which define activities which may generate impact. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evid...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. How to sustain impact is really challenging, particularly given different funding demands in research. This presentation collects some of the ideas about sustaining impact together. I am doing this as...

Resource: I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. How to sustain impact is really challenging, particularly given different funding demands in research. This presentation collects some of the ideas about sustaining impact together. I am doin...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This presentation is all about the difference between pathway and impact, which was at times confused in impact case studies in REF2014. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoin...

Resource: Audio: I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This presentation is all about the difference between pathway and impact, which was at times confused in impact case studies in REF2014. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very p...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is all about exploring your beneficiaries. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or fee...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is all about exploring your beneficiaries. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or fee...

Resource: I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. How do I achieve impact? What are the different stages of generating impact? I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really g...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. How do I achieve impact? What are the different stages of generating impact? I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is on reach and significance. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or feedback appreca...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is all about different types of impact. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or feedba...

Resource: I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is all about different types of impact. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is all about impact. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or feedback apprecaited plea...

Resource: I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, which I have collating into a series of short Powerpoint presentations. This one is all about impact. I am doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or feedback apprec...

I've collected lots of notes and ideas in how to build an impact case study, so this is the first of my guide of how to build an impact case study. I'm doing this as I am learning, from a very practical viewpoint in how to generate evidence and write a really good impact case study. Ideas or feedback apprecaited please. Thank you.

The widely accepted flood risk management (FRM) doctrine acknowledges that measures such as control, accommodation and adaptation should constitute part of flood preparedness. We do not know the process and extent to which FRM through insurance, planning and engineering collectively manages coastal flood risk at a sub-national level in England. The...

Adaptation to coastal flood risk is hampered by high uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise. Subsequently, adaptation decisions carry strong risks of under- or over-investment, and could lead to costly retrofitting or unnecessary high margins. To better allocate resources timely and effectively, and achieve long-term sustainability...

This paper presents a multi-sectoral evaluation of the global and regional consequences of future climate change across indicators representing impacts on heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It estimates change in physical hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change,...

Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to...

p> Change history: In Fig. 2b of this Letter, ‘Relative wetland change (km ² )’ should have read ‘Relative wetland change (%)’ and equations (2) and (3) have been changed from ‘RSLR _crit = (m × TR ^e ) × Sed + i’ and ‘Sed _crit = (RSLR − i)/(m × TR ^e )’, respectively. The definition of the variab...

This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for water-level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated Vulnerab...

Change history: In Fig. 2b of this Letter, ‘Relative wetland change (km²)’ should have read ‘Relative wetland change (%)’ and equations (2) and (3) have been changed from ‘RSLRcrit = (m × TRe) × Sed + i’ and ‘Sedcrit = (RSLR − i)/(m × TRe)’, respectively. The definition of the variables in equation (2) has been updated. These errors have been corre...

This very quick analysis of the REF impact template is based on UOA17 (Geography, Environmental Studies and Archaeology) from REF2014. I've read about a dozen higher-impact templates from that UOA and another random 10 from elsewhere. This is a quick overview to get a flavour of the template and could be much improved in detail. The focus is on the...

I’ve analysed impact summaries from 25 known 4* / highly ranked impact case studies from random UOAs in REF2014 contrasted these with 25 lower ranking case studies. This is a comparison of my results.

This poster describes ten different types and styles of impacts based on impact case studies in REF2014. They are some of my favourite examples and demonstrate contrasting methods of undertaking and presenting a case study. I would love to hear from you if you have any feedback or ideas on how to evidence and present case studies.

Christmas themed tips for REF2021

This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for water level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated Vulnerab...

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal...

Full- text available through the IPCC website: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

This is very much a collection of ideas, with plenty of scope to improve. If you have any suggestions or tips in how you are collating evidence for your case studies that you are able to share, I would love to hear from you.

UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based...

I would love to hear feedback / learn more from others undertaking REF case studies.

A-Z of impact case studies. Wider reading to prepare for REF2021.

This paper assesses the potential benefits of climate change mitigation in reducing the impacts of sea-level rise over the 21st century in G-20 countries (excluding the European Union as a whole), using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model. Impacts of the expected number of people flooded annually and wetland losses were assessed....

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued...

Even if climate change mitigation is successful, sea levels will keep rising. With subsidence, relative sea-level rise represents a long-term threat to low-lying deltas. A large part of coastal Bangladesh was analysed using the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model to determine changes in flood depth, area and population affected given sea-level...

Against the background of potentially substantial sea-level rise, one important question is to what extent are coastal societies able to adapt? This question is often answered in the negative by referring to sinking islands and submerged megacities. Although these risks are real, the picture is incomplete because it lacks consideration of adaptatio...