Ruth Delzeit

University of Basel | UNIBAS · Department of Environmental Sciences

Biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation require understanding of the potential trade-offs from possible future cropland expansion. Here we apply an interdisciplinary coupled modelling approach to identify areas under the globally highest expansion pressure of 1% to 30% future cropland expansion by 2030. On the basis of recent projecti...

This study employs a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the effects of aquaculture production on agricultural markets, food prices and land use. We conduct a scenario analysis simulating, first, the fish sector developments expected by FAO; second, a rebuilding of sustainable wild fish stocks to achieve SDG 14; and third,...

The Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030, and bans the use of biofuels with a high risk of causing indirect land‐use change in high carbon stock areas (high ILUC‐risk criteria). The only biofuel feedstock affected by this cr...

This deliverable report elaborates on the development and results of a set of policy scenarios that represent the outcomes of Task 2.4. After clarifying the objective of the deliverable, key features of the DART-BIO model are explained, followed by a definition of two biofuel scenarios in which the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and in addit...

This deliverable report provides an integration guide on how information gained in BESTMAP’s agent-based model can be used in the standard economic model to improve the assessment of agricultural policies in the European Union. First, the models used in the BESTMAP are explained. The integration guide discusses in detail the preconditions and chall...

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and polic...

The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED2) sets high mandates for advanced biofuels like cellulosic bioethanol from agricultural residues. However, many residues are used for ecological and economic purposes such as soil organic carbon regulation and livestock bedding and fodder. We use the global CGE model DART-BIO with a detailed represen...

The pressure on land resources continuously increases not only with the rising demand for agricultural commodities, but also with the growing need for action on global challenges, such as biodiversity loss or climate change, where land plays a crucial role. Land saving as a strategy, where agricultural productivity is increased to allow a reduction...

Mitigation of CO2 emissions is a global public good that imposes different regional economic costs. We assess the distributional effects of cooperative versus non-cooperative CO2 markets to fulfil the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), considering different CO2 permit allocation rules in cooperative markets. We employ a global computable g...

Water sustainability is central to modern political and academic debates. Despite increasing efforts to promote regional and global integrated water management, climate change, population, and economic growth, and increasing consumption of water-intensive goods project higher water deficiency. Robust economic analyses rely on information about wate...

The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore pot...

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00573-x

The ambitious climate policy objectives of the COP21 agreement require the design and the implementation of effective and efficient policy instruments. The effectiveness and efficiency of agricultural abatement options depend on regional climate and natural conditions, changes in the global economy, global agricultural markets and regional agricult...

Half of the European Union (EU) land and the livelihood of 10 million farmers is threatened by unsustainable land-use intensification, land abandonment and climate change. Policy instruments, including the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have so far failed to stop this environmental degradation. BESTMAP will: 1) Develop a behavioural theoretica...

With rising demand for biomass, cropland expansion and intensification represent the main strategies to boost agricultural production, but are also major drivers of biodiversity decline. We investigate the consequences of attaining equal global production gains by 2030, either by cropland expansion or intensification, and analyse their impacts on a...

At the European national and subnational levels exists a multitude of laws and programmes for the promotion of renewable energies. Taking Germany’s energy transition as an example, the most important regulations for the electricity, heat and transport fuel markets are the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the Renewable Energies Heat Act (EEWärmeG...

he increase in global population and rapid change in human diets are putting enormous pressure on agricultural production, which already has a limited expansion capacity. By outlining possibilities for the sustainable intensification of agriculture, the research community can make a valuable contribution to alleviating some of these environmental e...

The increase in global population and rapid change in human diets are putting enormous pressure on agricultural production, which already has a limited expansion capacity. By outlining possibilities for the sustainable intensification of agriculture, the research community can make a valuable contribution to alleviating some of these environmental...

Growing demand for meat and dairy products (MDP), biofuels, and scarcity of agricultural land are drivers of global land use competition. Impacts of policies targeting demand for MDP or biofuels have only been analysed separately. We use the computable general equilibrium model DART-BIO to investigate combined effects, since MDP and biofuel product...

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provid...

Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the...

Unfortunately, the Fig. 1 was incorrectly published in the original publication of the article.Fig. 1 Percentage change in global crop production under the land expansion scenario and harvested area in 2030 compared to 2007. Source: simulation of production with DART-BIO; harvested area based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012)The original article...

Global biofuel production has experienced a strong growth over the last years. The assessment of the impact of the promotion of biofuels on agricultural markets in many studies has yielded mixed results. Differences in modeling approaches and in the choice of crucial parameter values can be made responsible for the diversity of results. In DART-BIO...

The Early Career Researchers Network of Networks (ECR NoN) was created in 2016 to facilitate cooperation between early career researcher organisations worldwide. Its goals and objectives are to: -- connect early career researcher organisations across the globe and serve as a platform for them to coordinate, (re)present, exchange information and sha...

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today’s cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes a...

Supplementary Figures 1-6

Yield, production and crop area used for comparison of FAO-GAEZ and PROMET.

Recent studies estimate that a growing world population, increasing incomes and changing diets will likely increase the demand for food, feed, fuels and fiber and similarly for water by 70-110% by 2050. There is also general concern that agricultural yields are threatened by climate change, particularly in countries of the Global South. Ensuring fo...

Land use and land use change are determined as much by economic and institutional drivers as they depend on bio-physical conditions. Future pathways of socio-economic and environmental systems can only be assessed with scenarios which describe possible future paths of development. For this numeric models are one important tool. To capture the compl...

As part of its climate policy, Germany promotes the production of biogas via its so-called Renewable- Energy-Act (EEG). The resulting boost in biogas output went along with a significant increase in production of green maize, the dominant feedstock. Existing studies of the EEG have analysed its impacts on German agriculture without considering mark...

The production of bioenergy is considered to be a promising energy source for a sustainable energy mix and it is politically promoted in many countries. With the exception of Brazilian ethanol, bioenergy is not competitive with fossil energy sources, and therefore needs to be subsidised. Several types of bioenergy are based on bulky raw biomass wit...

Landnutzungskonkurrenz und Landknappheit beeinflussen die Auswirkungen einer vermehrten Bioenergienutzung. Die ökonomischen Effekte der aktuellen Bioenergiepolitik sind ein entscheidender Faktor für die Konkurrenz um Landnutzung.

With an increasing number of biogas plants, this technology has become an important area in agricultural production. This kind of energy production requires large amounts of biomass, and considerable quantities of digestate are also released. Animal excrement (for example slurry or solid manure) is also an oft-used substrate. Various studies in the...

The Renewable-Energy-Source-Act (EEG) promotes German biogas production in order to substitute fossil fuels, protect the environment and prevent climate change. In this paper we quantitatively analyse the EEG-reform in 2008. Results imply that the reform contributes to an expansion of biogas electricity generation and thus to substitution of fossil...

The location of first generation processing plants for biogas using bulky inputs is a prominent example of locational decisions of plants that face high per unit transport costs of feedstock and simultaneously depend to a large extent on feedstock availability. Modelling the resulting regional feedstock markets then requires a spatially explicit re...

Die Novellierung des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes im Jahre 2008 beinhaltete die Einfüh-rung eines Bonus für kleinere Biogasanlagen, die einen Substratanteil von mind. 30 % Gülle einsetzen. In diesem Beitrag werden die Auswirkungen der EEG-Novellierung auf die Land-wirtschaft mit Hilfe des regionalen Agrarsektormodells RAUMIS und des Standortmodell...

In the context of energy security and climate protection, biomass is given high importance. Nevertheless, land-use conflicts resulting from the cultivation of biomass and their economy-wide effects are yet to be fully understood. To shed light on this issue we link three distinctive models; a global, multi-regional general equilibrium model (DART),...

Taking Brazilian bioethanol as an example, this paper presents possible sustainability criteria for a certification scheme aimed to minimize negative socio-ecological impacts and to increase the sustainable production of biomass. We describe the methods that have led us to the identification of a first set of feasible sustainability criteria for Br...

Our location model aims to simulate location decisions for biogas plants based on profit maximisation to generate regional demand functions for maize and corresponding plant size structure and transport distances. By linking it with an agricultural sector model we derived regional maize markets. Comparing results for the REA with a scenario applyin...

Fuel gained from agricultural crop land (biofuels) experiences a global renaissance due to political interventions. Therewith, policy reacts on problems of climate protection and security of supply in the transportation sector. Biofuels offer an approach which might lead to conflicts of goals for promotion of biofuels. An economical and ecological...

In Germany, currently there is a risk of energy shortages due to insufficient domestic resources and hence import dependency. The focus of this paper is on whether biofuels as part of the Risk Management Strategy are able to contribute to the security of fuel-supply for the German society and whether they are able to minimise the risk of shortages...

Bioenergy produced from biomass is increasingly used to substitute fossil energy sources. Trade of biomass is expected to increase in the following years due to disparities in production costs and potentials in countries and regions. In this paper the possibility of a certification scheme for minimizing negative socio-ecological impacts and for inc...

The production of bioenergy is considered to be a promising energy source for a sustainable energy mix and it is politically promoted in many countries. With the exception of Brazilian ethanol, bioenergy not competitive to fossil energy sources, and therefore needs to be subsidised. Several types of bioenergy are based on bulky raw biomass with hig...

In the context of energy security and concerns about climate change, German legislation subsidizes electricity production from biogas. Given that transportation costs of silage maize and manure, the main biogas feedstock, are high compared to the feedstock's value, a robust impact assessment requires tools capturing regional market clearing. We the...