Rüdiger Pohl

Rüdiger Pohl
Universität Mannheim · Department of Psychology

Doctor of Psychology

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69
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Publications

Publications (69)
Book
Cognitive Illusions (3rd ed.) explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. In this volume, Rüdiger F. Pohl brings together leading international researchers to define what cognitive illusions are and discuss their theoretical status: are such illusions proof of a faulty hu...
Chapter
Das autobiographische Gedächtnis enthält unsere Lebenserinnerungen. Es stellt somit einen zentralen Baustein der eigenen Persönlichkeit dar. Es macht uns einzigartig und unverwechselbar. Es gibt uns Identität. Es dient vielfältigen psychischen und sozialen Funktionen. Es unterliegt zahlreichen Einflüssen und Veränderungen. Es zu verlieren, kommt ei...
Chapter
In hindsight, people often claim to have known more in foresight than they actually did. For example, the confidence for one of several possible outcomes is larger when it is known that this particular outcome occurred. A widespread explanation of hindsight bias assumes that the feedback serves as an anchor. How precisely this anchor takes effect a...
Article
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Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research suggests that age-related differences in hindsight bias may be based on age-related differences in inhibitory control. We tested whether this explanation holds for three cognitive processes assumed to underlie hind...
Article
According to the recognition heuristic, decision makers base their inferences on recognition alone, assuming that recognized objects have larger criterion values than unrecognized ones. Knowing that recognition is a valid cue and thus using the recognition heuristic should increase with age. This was tested in two experiments with preadolescents (N...
Article
According to the recognition-heuristic theory, decision makers solve paired comparisons in which one object is recognized and the other not by recognition alone, inferring that recognized objects have higher criterion values than unrecognized ones. However, success-and thus usefulness-of this heuristic depends on the validity of recognition as a cu...
Chapter
The chapter is an introduction to the book and defines and discusses what cognitive illusions are. It also gives an overview about the contents and the pedagogical aims.
Book
Cognitive Illusions (2nd ed.) explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. Featuring contributions from leading researchers, the book defines what cognitive illusions are and discusses their theoretical status: Are such illusions proof for a faulty human information-proces...
Article
In paired comparisons based on which of two objects has the larger criterion value, decision makers could use the subjectively experienced difference in retrieval fluency of the objects as a cue. According to the fluency heuristic (FH) theory, decision makers use fluency—as indexed by recognition speed—as the only cue for pairs of recognized object...
Article
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One of the most prominent models of probabilistic inferences from memory is the simple recognition heuristic (RH). The RH theory assumes that judgments are based on recognition in isolation, such that other information is ignored. However, some prior research has shown that available knowledge is not generally ignored. In line with the notion of ad...
Article
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Heuristics have been described as decision strategies that save time and effort. Given this advantageous property, heuristics should be more often used when cognitive resources are scarce. We tested this general view with respect to the fast and frugal recognition heuristic which assumes one-reason decision making based on recognition alone wheneve...
Article
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In probabilistic inferences concerning which of two objects has the larger criterion value (e.g., which of two cities has more inhabitants), participants may recognize both objects, only one, or neither. According to the mental-toolbox approach, different decision strategies exist for each of these cases, utilizing different probabilistic cues. Pos...
Article
The notion of adaptive decision making implies that strategy selection in both inferences and preferences is driven by a trade-off between accuracy and effort. A strategy for probabilistic inferences which is particularly attractive from this point of view is the recognition heuristic (RH). It proposes that judgments rely on recognition in isolatio...
Article
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This special issue on recognition processes in inferential decision making represents an adversarial collaboration among the three guest editors. This introductory article to the special issue's third and final part comes in three sections. In Section 1, we summarize the six papers that appear in this part. In Section 2, we give a wrap-up of the le...
Article
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I describe and discuss the sometimes heated controversy surrounding the recognition heuristic (RH) as a model of inferential decision making. After briefly recapitulating the history of the RH up to its current version, I critically evaluate several specific assumptions and predictions of the RH and its surrounding framework: recognition as a memor...
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Introduction to the second part of an extended special issue.
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A new process model of the interplay between memory and judgment processes was recently suggested, assuming that retrieval fluency-that is, the speed with which objects are recognized-will determine inferences concerning such objects in a single-cue fashion. This aspect of the fluency heuristic, an extension of the recognition heuristic, has remain...
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Introduction to the first special issue (of three) on recognition processes in inferential decision making.
Article
In hindsight, that is, after receiving the correct answers to difficult questions, people's recall of their own prior answers tends to be biased toward the correct answers. We tested 139 participants from 3 age groups (9- and 12-year-olds and adults) in a hindsight-bias paradigm and found that all groups showed hindsight bias. Multinomial model-bas...
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Introduction to the first special issue on recognition processes in inferential decision making.
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Several approaches to judgment and decision making emphasize the effort-reducing properties of heuristics. One prominent example for effort-reduction is the recognition heuristic (RH) which proposes that judgments are made by relying on one single cue (recognition), ignoring other information. Our research aims to shed light on the conditions under...
Chapter
Das Gedächtnis ist der Aufbewahrungsort aller Erinnerungen. Seine wesentliche Funktion besteht darin, Erinnerungen so aufzuarbeiten und zu speichern, dass sie für zukünftige Situationen nutzbar sind. Alle Erfahrungen, die jemand macht, können zu einem Bestandteil des eigenen Gedächtnisses werden. Die einzelnen Erinnerungen können verschiedene Infor...
Article
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The fast-and-frugal recognition heuristic (RH) theory provides a precise process description of comparative judgments. It claims that, in suitable domains, judgments between pairs of objects are based on recognition alone, whereas further knowledge is ignored. However, due to the confound between recognition and further knowledge, previous research...
Article
Full-text available
According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of ev...
Article
Overestimation of threat (OET) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The present study deconstructed this complex concept and looked for specific deviances in OCD relative to controls. A total of 46 participants with OCD and 51 nonclinical controls were asked: (a) to estimate the incidence rate for 20 event...
Article
The recognition heuristic (RH) claims that people base inferences on recognition only. This has been questioned by several studies which found that additional knowledge was influential. However, in some of these studies, participants' additional knowledge might have encompassed criterion knowledge thus rendering any inferential strategy superfluous...
Article
Full-text available
The recognition heuristic is hypothesized to be a frugal inference strategy assuming that inferences are based on the recognition cue alone. This assumption, however, has been questioned by existing research. At the same time most studies rely on the proportion of choices consistent with the heuristic as a measure of its use which may not be fully...
Article
The Quick-Estimation heuristic (QuickEst) was introduced by Hertwig, Hoffrage, and Martignon (199910. Hertwig , R. , Hoffrage , U. , & Martignon , L. (1999) . Quick estimation: Letting the environment do the work . In G. Gigerenzer , P. M. Todd , & the ABC Research Group (Eds.) , Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 209 – 234) . New York : Oxf...
Article
Hindsight bias is a robust phenomenon; it has been found with different designs, materials, and measures. However, several methodological problems may hinder an adequate analysis and interpretation of results obtained in experimental studies of the effect. This article therefore systematizes and critically discusses relevant features of designs, ma...
Article
The authors review the current state of developmental research on hindsight bias. In research on cognitive development in children as well as in cognitive-aging research, studies on hindsight bias are rare. The few existing studies indicate that children and older adults show stronger hindsight bias than young adults. The authors show commonalities...
Article
Since Baruch Fischhoff's (1975) groundbreaking paper opened up a whole new research field, more than 150 journal articles and book chapters, two meta-analyses (Christensen-Szalanski & Willham, 1991; Guilbault, Bryant, Brockway & Posavac, 2004), and one special issue (Memory, 2003, edited by Ulrich Hoffrage & Rodiger Pohl) have addressed hindsight p...
Book
„Wir sind, was wir erinnern“: Das autobiographische Gedächtnis erlaubt mentale Zeitreisen in die eigene Vergangenheit und erfüllt damit wichtige Funktionen für unser gegenwärtiges Selbst. Dieses Buch fasst den Stand der psychologischen Forschung zum autobiographischen Gedächtnis in verständlicher und übersichtlicher Form zusammen. Nach einer Einfüh...
Article
The present study tested whether participants with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) overestimate the incidence frequency of OCD-relevant phenomena and display a decreased hindsight bias for concern-related information, which may represent a maintenance factor for OCD. Thirty participants with OCD and 39 control participants were requested to est...
Article
The recognition heuristic postulates that individuals should choose a recognized object more often than an unrecognized one whenever recognition is related to the criterion. This behavior has been described as a one-cue, noncompensatory decision-making strategy. This claim and other assumptions were tested in four experiments using paired-compariso...
Article
This study investigated gender-specific relationships between autobiographical memory (AM) performance and two social skills, namely empathy and assertiveness. One hundred and fourteen male and female students were tested with a questionnaire on AM and two test scales for empathy and assertiveness. The results revealed positive correlations between...
Article
Zusammenfassung. Der Ruckschaufehler (engl. “hindsight bias“) beschreibt die Tendenz, sich bei Schatzaufgaben durch vorgegebene Informationen systematisch beeinflussen zu lassen. Dieses Phanomen ist gut untersucht, allerdings ist seine entwicklungspsychologische Genese noch vollig unklar. Deshalb haben wir 274 Kinder und Erwachsene gebeten, die Ant...
Book
Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our every day lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as; illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanati...
Article
In this introduction to the present issue, we give a brief description of the phenomenon. Subsequently, we discuss the major theoretical accounts, focusing on how these are related to the papers included in the issue.
Article
The cognitive process model "SARA" aims to explain the anchoring effect and hindsight bias by making detailed assumptions about the representation and alteration of item-specific knowledge. The model assumes that all processes, namely generating an estimate, encoding new information (i.e., the "anchor"), and reconstructing a previously generated es...
Article
This study explored the influence of anchor distance on hindsight bias and how the subjective plausibility of different anchors moderates this relation. In addition to the standard memory design used in hindsight bias research, participants were asked to indicate the range of values for possible answers to difficult almanac questions. Varying ancho...
Article
Full-text available
Being in hindsight, people tend to overestimate what they had known in foresight. This phenomenon has been studied for a wide variety of knowledge domains (e.g., episodes with uncertain outcomes, or solutions to almanac questions). As a result of these studies, hindsight bias turned out to be a robust phenomenon. In this paper, we present two exper...
Article
Full-text available
Hindsight bias refers to the tendency to overestimate in hindsight what one has known in foresight. Recently, two experiments extended the research to include samples from different cultures (Choi & Nisbett, 2000; Heine & Lehman, 1996). Asking their participants what they would have guessed before they knew the outcome ("hypothetical design"), Choi...
Article
Full-text available
Being in hindsight, people tend to overestimate what they had known in foresight. This phenomenon has been studied for a wide variety of knowledge domains (e.g., episodes with uncertain outcomes, results of football games, or solutions to almanac questions). As a result of these studies, hindsight bias turned out to be a robust phenomenon. Yet, all...
Article
The phenomenon by which previously generated estimates as answers to difficult knowledge questions are recalled as being too good after presentation of the solutions is known as hindsight bias. Some studies suggested that a deeper elaboration of the estimate may decrease hindsight bias, while a deeper elaboration of the solution may increase it. In...
Article
Anchoring effect and hindsight bias have been demonstrated in a large number of studies. Yet the explanation of these systematically distorted judgements and recollections remained largely descriptive und thus unsatisfactory. The cognitive process model presented in this paper is based on detailed assumptions about the representation and alteration...
Article
Zusammenfassung. Der Ruckschaufehler besteht darin, das vorher abgegebene Schatzungen auf schwierige Wissensfragen nach Bekanntgabe der Losung als zu gut erinnert werden. Bisherige Studien deuteten an, das eine tiefere Elaborierung der Schatzung den Ruckschaufehler verkleinern, eine tiefere Elaborierung der Losung dagegen den Ruckschaufehler vergro...
Article
In hindsight, people tend to overestimate what they had known in foresight. Two experiments tested whether this bias is due or at least moderated by the self-presentation motive. In Experiment 1, 165 participants received seven problem cases with two possible outcomes and supporting arguments each. All participants rated the importance of the argum...
Article
Whenever people try to recollect an earlier given estimate after they have received feedback about the true solution, they tend to overestimate what they had known in foresight. This phenomenon is known as ''hindsight bias''. This paper reports three attempts to eliminate hindsight bias by labelling the feedback value as another person's estimate (...
Chapter
In einer Demonstration des Ankereffekts gaben Tversky mid Kahneman (1974) ihren Versuchspersonen durch ein Glücksrad generierte Zufallszahlen vor. Die Person sollte dann entscheiden, ob der Prozentsatz der afrikanischen Nationen in der UN größer oder kleiner als diese Zahl sei. Dann sollte die Person eine exakte Schätzung abgeben. Die angeblichen Z...
Article
In hindsight, people often claim to have known more than they actually did. This finding has been termed hindsight bias. We report two hindsight-bias experiments which yielded converging results with different methods. All participants first estimated numerical values as answers to difficult knowledge questions, were later given the solutions, and...
Article
Questioning the presence of "truly" blended recollections, we investigated two cognitive phenomena: hindsight bias and the misinformation effect. At first glance, both phenomena seem to result from the same interference process, whereby the subsequent encoding of conflicting information impairs the recall of earlier encoded (original) material. Exp...
Article
Three experiments investigated whether hindsight bias--a systematic distortion of the recollections of numerical estimates--is also observed with visuo-spatial material. Subjects estimated the location of 20 German cities on an empty map, received feedback about the true locations, and were then requested to recall their earlier estimates. Addition...
Article
Subjects' recollections of earlier encoded (original) information can be distorted by presenting contradictory information prior to the attempt of recalling the original information. This paradigm has supplied a wealth of empirical evidence. In this paper, we present three lines of research: (1) In order to investigate the influence of source confu...
Article
When someone is asked which of two items from a linearly ordered set of items comes first in that order, reaction time decreases with increasing distance between the two items in the given order. This is known as thedistance effect, a very robust finding in studies on linear orders. Surprisingly, investigations onchunked linear orders show unexpect...
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In experiments on the recognition of text information, subjects frequently recognize text information that had not explicitly been stated in the text but rather belonged to a script activated by the text. In this paper, we delineate a model attributing these false alarms to an increased activation level of the information in an abstract script memo...
Article
The Roter Faden model (Glowalla, 1981) has been developed to account for the processing of narrative discourse. An important feature of the model, the generating of expectations, was examined in a story continuation task. Subjects had to decide whether or not a given sentence appeared to be an understandable continuation of a previously read story...
Article
[addresses the problem] of hindsight bias / claims that the overall shift of the distribution of recollections may reflect a number of methodological artifacts claims that the observed distribution of imperfect recollections should be considered a compound of 3 distinct recollection types: unbiased new estimates, correct-value anchored judgments,...