Ross Garnaut

• Lecturer at Deakin University

Nine leading economists acknowledge that the state of the labour market is currently the critical factor determining price inflation and, consequently, the decision to adjust the cash rate. The main point of contention is how high unemployment, and other measures of labour surplus, need to be, to ensure wages do not fuel further inflation. Five eco...

This article responds to the Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which was released on 20 April 2023. We describe the underperformance of the Australian economy over the past decade, and identify the contribution of RBA mistakes. We suggest remedies that would improve prospects for low inflation and unemployment. Returning to general pro...

本书试图对人力资本、创新和技术变迀在转型经济中的作用做深层次分析，并讨 论中国的经历在何种方式上为中国自身和其他国家提供了重要的经验教训。我们生活 在一个现代技术越来越多地影响着我们方方面面生活的全新时代。虽然中国正付出极 大努力通过增加人力资本和技术创新来完成经济结构调整和转型，但仍面临巨大的挑 战。

The Trump administration has embarked upon two large economic policy initiatives at a time of full employment: increasing the budget deficit by cutting personal and corporate tax rates; and increasing protection, especially against countries with which the United States has bilateral trade deficits. These initiatives are meant to reduce trade defic...

《全球背景下的中国经济转型》 （ Ｓｏｎｇ ｅｔ ａｌ􀆰 ， ２０１５） 一书出版后， 中国 经济在结构性改革过程中继续承受着巨大的压力。 《中国经济发展的转折 点》 （Ｇａｒｎａｕｔ ａｎｄ Ｓｏｎｇ， ２００６） 预测， 劳动力日益缺乏和劳动力成本的不断 上升， 对中国原有的与劳动力密集型制造业出口相关的优势形成持续制约。 为应对全球金融危机， 过度投资基础设施和重工业以及为这些投资提供资金 而产生的债务造成了投资过剩的严重后果， 这就要求进行大规模的结构性变 革， 这一变革与长期经济发展压力无关。 改革期间的低生育率造成中国人口 日益老龄化， 出现了未富先老的特殊挑战 （参见本书中 Ｊｏｈｎｓｔｏｎ 等的相关文 章） 。 国际国内的环境诉求推动中国调整经济发展的重点， 并施加压力促使...

China adopted a new model of growth from 2011, requiring substantial structural change. This introductory article presents statistical evidence on progress so far. Change generally is in the required direction, but slow. There has been early but slow progress on re-orienting domestic demand towards consumption; substantial re-orientation from relia...

中国经济正经历自改革开放以来最持久深入的增长放缓。 在 ２１ 世纪初 的 １０ 年中， 经济年均增长率大约为 １０％ ， 到 ２０１４ 年下跌至略高于 ７％ 。 我们曾于 ２００６ 年和 ２０１３ 年两次在 “ ‘中国经济前沿’ 丛书” 中探讨过， 适当经济放缓对中国当局来说既是不可避免的， 也是值得庆幸的。 当时估 计经济放缓其实是利好消息， 因为它源自结构性因素， 对实现可持续性增 长很有必要。 现在的问题是， 我们目前正在关注的这次放缓， 是否正如先 前预期的那样能够为中国经济走上世界生产力的前沿奠定基础？ 还是由其 他什么因素所导致？

In the decade to 2011, developments in the Chinese economy gave the world its biggest ever resources boom and set the scene for a resources deflation. The boom generated high incomes and investment in global resources, especially coal. It boosted Indonesian growth and diverted the policy focus from the productivity-raising reforms that are necessar...

Modern economic development does not travel for long in a straight line. Making sense of the periodic changes in direction is the never-ending challenge of economic analysis. My 2015 Holmes Lecture took up the challenge of explaining new twists and turns in the 21st century. Productivity and output growth are markedly lower in the developed countri...

Twenty-first century global energy markets have been disrupted by unexpectedly rapid growth in demand, especially in China, and by policy to reduce carbon emissions. These developments have led to reductions in emissions intensity, reduced costs of non-fossil energy and expanded deployment of unconventional gas technologies. Both traded and non-tra...

China contributed a majority of the growth in global greenhouse gas emissions in the first 11 years of this century. The trajectory of emissions has changed radically since then, as China has implemented its Cancun 2010 commitment to reduce the 2005 emissions intensity of economic activity by 40–45 percent by 2020. The change in trajectory has been...

The Australian Government's White Paper ‘Australia in the Asian Century’ is the first large-scale official look in the twenty-first century at economic change in Asia and how it affects Australian opportunities and challenges. This paper comments on the analysis embodied in and the objectives defined by the White Paper, especially as it relates to...

An intellectually vigorous modern economics profession has emerged in China over the past three decades of market‐oriented reform and opening to the international economy. Understanding the Chinese economy is essential to understanding economics as China approaches being the world's largest economy. This review article discusses the modern economic...

Commodity prices are formed by the interaction of global economic growth and costs of expanding supply of commodities. They tend to be high for long periods when global average growth rates are high, and low for long periods when growth rates are low, and to fluctuate around these averages as short term demand departs from expectations. The growth...

China is now Australia's largest trading partner, continuing to increase its relative importance. Its growth and structural change have been the major determinants of the conditions under which Australia relates to global markets for goods, services and capital. China has been a labour surplus economy. Over the past half‐dozen years, China has ente...

In this update to the 2008 Garnaut Climate Change Review, Ross Garnaut re-examines the case for action in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and recent developments by major countries to reduce emissions and prepare for a low-carbon future. He guides the reader through the climate change debate, and explains why Australia's contribution i...

In this update to the 2008 Garnaut Climate Change Review, Ross Garnaut re-examines the case for action in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and recent developments by major countries to reduce emissions and prepare for a low-carbon future. He guides the reader through the climate change debate, and explains why Australia's contribution i...

The Henry Review placed the taxation of rents from mines back on the national policy agenda. Mineral rent is potentially a source of neutral taxation. However, the various means of taxing resource rents in practice either fall short of the ideal of neutrality or collect for the revenue only a small proportion of the mineral rent. This article discu...

China's rapid growth in the reform era has been built around the availability of large amounts of migration from the countryside to the industrial cities, associated with only small increases in real wages. This pattern of growth has generated high savings, investment, rates of output growth, external payments imbalances, and high and growing inequ...

Climate change mitigation policy is the most difficult to come before our polity in living memory. There can be no solution without international agreement involving all substantial economies, and yet each country has an incentive to free ride on others. The international agreement must have five parts: agreement on the objective in terms of concen...

There is a limited case for assisting trade-exposed emissions-intensive industries during a transitional period during which Australian resource industries but not all of their major competitors are subject to emissions constraints. There is no case for protecting Australian industry from all adjustment and loss of asset values during the transitio...

Within the context of sighted wine appreciation, previous studies indicate that extrinsic cues like price and area-of-origin have a marked effect on the sighted ratings proffered by tasting experts. While these expert ratings are widely employed by the wine media as proxies of genuine quality, it remains uncertain whether such expert ratings, in tu...

This chapter argues that, notwithstanding the financial crisis, rapid economic growth has accelerated the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, making the effort required even greater. Furthermore, these costs are subject to policy bias and will increase with a more realistic view of policy that accounts for the absence of a smooth coordination bet...

This paper examines Indonesia's vulnerability to climate change, and her position in the global climate change mitigation effort as a significant emitter with large potential for reducing emissions from forestry. It highlights the scope for Australia and Indonesia—both large emitters, one a developed country and potential buyer of emissions permits...

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

This article was submitted without an abstract, please refer to the full-text PDF file.

Global greenhouse gas emissions are on a steeper growth trajectory than assumed in most scenarios that underlie current international policy discussions and negotiations. Effective global climate change mitigation action will require speed, depth and breadth well beyond any efforts seen to date, and will need to involve all major emitters, includin...

Rapid global economic growth, centred in Asia but now spread across the world, is driving rapid greenhouse-gas emissions growth, making earlier projections unrealistic. This paper develops new, illustrative business-as-usual projections for carbon dioxide (CO) from fossil fuels and other sources and for non-CO greenhouse gases. Making adjustments t...

Professor Ross Garnaut was commissioned by all of the Governments of Australia’s Federation to examine the impacts of climate change on Australia and to recommend policy frameworks to improve the prospects of sustainable prosperity. The Garnaut Climate Change Review is one of the most important reports to be published in Australia for many years. I...

The authors are grateful to Max Corden and Peter Warr for helpful comments and to Prue Phillips for computational assistance.

As a result of the difficulties in negotiating the liberalization of trade globally, countries seek liberalization among smaller groups. We describe open regionalism as one such attempt to do this, and show why after a decade of success it ran into the ground as a strategy. The formation of discriminatory regional free-trade areas (FTAs) is sometim...

The human resources and institutional capacity to deliver services through the public sector are scarce in developing countries with no traditions of an overarching state and in which the world's poor people are increasingly concentrated. This makes economizing on interventions by government a central aspect of economic development. The paper discu...

The mainland of China’s rapid pace of industrialization and trade expansion have led many to ask whether its ever-increasing demand for resources can be met without disruption to economic stability and growth in the country and the world as a whole. The article examines the experience of growth in resource demand and the associated pressure on glob...

The transformation of China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) over the past decade has resulted in remarkable changes to the structure of the Chinese economy. Gaizhi, the Chinese term meaning "transforming the system", has become a major phenomenon in most parts of the country and in many cases has involved privatization. The term gaizhi is used to...

During the past 27 years, China's economy and relationship with the outside world has been transformed. The magnitude of annual economic growth and rapid increase in the volume of output of goods and services raise unsettling questions about potential threats to the sustainability of current growth levels and implications for economic and political...

There was no macroeconomic policy in the classical system of economic thought. Monetary policy was determined without discretion within the Gold Standard, and budget outcomes were guided by a ‘balanced budget rule’. Intellectual and policy support for the classical rules evaporated when large shocks upset the classical adjustment mechanisms and led...