Ronan A Lyons

Swansea University | SWAN · Swansea University Medical School

There is still limited understanding of how chronic conditions co-occur in patients with multimorbidity and what are the consequences for patients and the health care system. Most reported clusters of conditions have not considered the demographic characteristics of these patients during the clustering process. The study used data for all registere...

Background The EVITE Immunity study investigated the effects of shielding Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) people during the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes and healthcare costs in Wales, United Kingdom, to help prepare for future pandemics. Shielding was intended to protect those at highest risk of serious harm from COVID-19. We report t...

Background Estimates suggest that 1 in 100 people in the UK live with facial scarring. Despite this incidence, psychological support is limited. Aims The aim of this study was to strengthen the case for improving such support by determining the incidence and risk factors for anxiety and depression disorders in patients with facial scarring. Metho...

Background Trusted Research Environments provide a legitimate basis for data access along with a set of technologies to support implementation of the "five-safes" framework for privacy protection. Lack of standard approaches in achieving compliance with the "five-safes" framework results in a diversity of approaches across different TREs. Data acce...

As SARS-COV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, spread across Europe in the first half of 2020, countries deployed a range of responses to mitigate its spread and reduce mortality. Most countries adopted some form of “social distancing”, restricting movement and contact between households in order to minimise the burden on healthcar...

Background Multimorbidity is one of the greatest challenges facing health and social care systems globally. It is associated with high rates of health service use, adverse healthcare events, and premature death. Despite its importance, little is known about the effects of contextual determinants such as household and area characteristics on health...

Background The increasing burden of injury is further exacerbated by the presence of ethnic disparities in emergency healthcare settings. This review aimed to describe the published literature reporting comparative mortality by ethnicity of adults presenting with injury to emergency healthcare in developed countries. Methods Five electronic databa...

Reducing the burden of falls and fall-related admissions to hospital and care homes is an important policy area. Falls cause significant injury leading to a reduced quality of life. We wanted to know if the environment around people’s homes changes the risk of falls for older people in Wales. We linked routinely collected, anonymised health data on...

Objectives Youth obesity has increased substantially in recent decades; however, the potential role of the built environment in mitigating these trends is unclear. This study examines whether more walkable neighbourhoods are associated with lower levels of overweight/obesity for adolescents compared to less walkable neighbourhoods, after considerin...

Objectives Active travel to school (ATS), such as walking and cycling, not only reduces carbon emissions and air pollution but also contributes to a myriad of health benefits. Understanding the ‘potential’ for ATS across Wales is poorly understood yet vital to inform policy and practice aimed at increasing ATS. Methods Using geospatial techniques,...

Objective To develop a novel pathway linking genetic data with routinely collected data for people with epilepsy. To analyse the influence of rare, deleterious genetic variants on epilepsy outcomes. Methods We linked whole‐exome sequencing data with routinely collected primary and secondary care data and natural language processing derived seizure...

Objective: to introduce directed hypergraphs as a novel tool for assessing the temporal relationships between coincident diseases, addressing the need for a more accurate representation of multimorbidity and leveraging the growing availability of electronic healthcare databases and improved computational resources. Methods: directed hypergraphs off...

Background Routine monitoring of Body Mass Index (BMI) in general practice, and via national surveillance programmes, is essential for the identification, prevention, and management of low or excess childhood weight. We examined and compared the presence and representativeness of children and young people’s (CYPs) BMI recorded in two routinely coll...

Purpose Public health measures instituted at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK in 2020 had profound effects on the cancer patient pathway. We hypothesise that this may have affected analgesic prescriptions for cancer patients in primary care. Methods A whole-nation retrospective, observational study of opioid and antineuropathic analges...

Background: Measurement of multimorbidity in research is variable, including the choice of the data source used to ascertain conditions. We compared the estimated prevalence of multimorbidity and associations with mortality using different data sources. Methods: A cross-sectional study of SAIL Databank data including 2,340,027 individuals of all...

Introduction Shielding aimed to protect those predicted to be at highest risk from COVID-19 and was uniquely implemented in the UK during the first year of the pandemic from March 2020. As the first stage in the EVITE Immunity evaluation (Effects of shielding for vulnerable people during COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes, costs and immunity, inc...

Background Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality...

Background: Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortali...

Background: To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical-mental health multimorbidity, develop...

Objectives: We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection trends, risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination uptake among school staff, students and their household members in Wales, UK. Design: Seven-day average of SARS-CoV-2 infections and polymerase chain reaction tests per 1000 people daily, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 vaccination upt...

Natural environments can promote well-being through multiple mechanisms. Many studies have investigated relationships between residential green/blue space (GBS) and well-being, fewer explore relationships with actual use of GBS. We used a nationally representative survey, the National Survey for Wales, anonymously linked with spatial GBS data to in...

Introduction: At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an urgent need to identify individuals at highest risk of severe outcomes, such as hospitalisation and death following infection. The QCOVID risk prediction algorithms emerged as key tools in facilitating this which were further developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic...

Introduction Injuries are a major public health problem which can lead to disability or death. However, little is known about the incidence, presentation, management and outcomes of emergency care for patients with injuries among people from ethnic minorities in the UK. The aim of this study is to investigate what may differ for people from ethnic...

Benefits, challenges, and solutions of enabling multimodal research analysis within a mature research environment. Addresses storage, compute and governance issues and the solution deployed by DPUK to address these issues.

The schools-based influenza vaccination programme has seen consistently high uptake in Wales, however coverage in preschool two and three-year olds is lower. One health board area (Cwm Taf University Health Board (UHB)) developed an intervention to offer live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) for three-year olds attending nursery schools alongsid...

Purpose: People with epilepsy (PWE) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19. Assessing COVID-19 vaccine uptake is therefore important. We compared COVID-19 vaccination uptake for PWE in Wales with a matched control cohort. Methods: We performed a retrospective, population, cohort study using linked, anonymised, Welsh electronic health records w...

Background: Multimorbidity prevalence rates vary considerably depending on the conditions considered in the morbidity count, but there is no standardised approach to the number or selection of conditions to include. Methods and findings: We conducted a cross-sectional study using English primary care data for 1,168,260 participants who were all...

The uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in Wales is high at a population level but many inequalities exist. Household composition may be an important factor in COVID-19 vaccination uptake due to the practical, social, and psychological implications associated with different living arrangements. In this study, the role of household composition in the upt...

Background: The EVITE Immunity study investigates the effects of shielding Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) people during the COVID-19 pandemic on health outcomes and healthcare costs in Wales, UK, to help prepare for future pandemics. Shielding was intended to protect those at highest risk of serious harm from COVID-19. We report the cost of...

Background: The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over a third of care homes reported an outbreak while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim: Investigate hospital discharges...

Prospective population-based studies investigating associations between reactive symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and serologic responses to vaccination are lacking. We therefore conducted a study in 9003 adults from the UK general population receiving SARS-CoV-2 vaccines as part of the national vaccination programme. Titres of combined Ig...

Background: Multimorbidity prevalence rates vary considerably depending on the conditions considered in the morbidity count, but there is no standardised approach to the number or selection of conditions to include. Methods and Findings: We conducted a cross-sectional study using English primary care data for 1168260 participants who were all peopl...

Introduction: The UK shielding policy intended to protect people at the highest risk of harm from COVID-19 infection. We aimed to describe intervention effects in Wales at 1 year. Methods: Retrospective comparison of linked demographic and clinical data for cohorts comprising people identified for shielding from 23 March to 21 May 2020; and the...

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, and sotrovimab with no treatment in preventing hospital admission or death in higher-risk patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Design: Retrospective cohort study of non-hospitalised adult patients with COVID-19 using the Secure Anonymised Information...

Objective To compare the effectiveness of molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, and sotrovimab with no treatment in preventing hospital admission or death in higher-risk patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Design Retrospective cohort study of non-hospitalised adult patients with COVID-19 using the Secure Anonymised Information Linka...

Objectives: To characterise microbiology testing and results associated with emergency admissions for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), and determine the accuracy of ICD-10 codes in retrospectively identifying laboratory-confirmed respiratory pathogens in this setting. Methods: Using person-level data from the Secure Anonymised Information Li...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has directly and indirectly had an impact on health service provision owing to surges and sustained pressures on the system. The effects of these pressures on the management of long-term or chronic conditions are not fully understood. Aim To explore the effects of COVID-19 on the recorded incidence of 17 long-term...

In this retrospective cohort study, we used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank to characterise and identify predictors of the one-year post-discharge healthcare resource utilisation (HRU) of adults who were admitted to critical care units in Wales between 1 April 2006 and 31 December 2017. We modelled one-year post-critical-c...

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medicatio...

The inclusion of machine-learning-derived models in systematic reviews of risk prediction models for colorectal cancer is rare. Whilst such reviews have highlighted methodological issues and limited performance of the models included, it is unclear why machine-learning-derived models are absent and whether such models suffer similar methodological...

Background From September 2021, Health Care Workers (HCWs) in Wales began receiving a COVID-19 booster vaccination. This is the first dose beyond the primary vaccination schedule. Given the emergence of new variants, vaccine waning vaccine, and increasing vaccination hesitancy, there is a need to understand booster vaccine uptake and subsequent bre...

Eczema and asthma are allergic diseases and two of the commonest chronic conditions in high-income countries. Their co-existence with other allergic conditions is common, but little research exists on wider multimorbidity with these conditions. We set out to identify and compare clusters of multimorbidity in people with eczema or asthma and people...

Background dementia may increase care home residents’ risk of COVID-19, but there is a lack of evidence on this effect and on interactions with individual and care home-level factors. Methods we created a national cross-sectional retrospective cohort of care home residents in Wales for 1 September to 31 December 2020. Risk factors were analysed us...

Background Health information (HI) strategies exist in several EU Member States, however, they mainly focus on technical issues and improving governance rather than on content-related priority setting. There is also little research available about national prioritization processes underlying HI development for policy support in the EU. The aim of t...

Introduction Ethnicity information is recorded routinely in electronic health records (EHRs); however, to date, there is no national standard or framework for harmonisation of the existing records. Methods and analysis The national ethnicity-spine uses anonymised individual-level population-scale ethnicity data from 26 EHR available through the Sec...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic had direct and indirect effects on health. Indirect effects on long term medical conditions (LTCs) are unclear. We examined trends in recorded incidences of LTCs and quantified differences between expected rates and observed rates from 2020 onwards. Methods This is a population data linkage study using primary and...

Background: The imposition of restrictions on social mixing early in the COVID-19 pandemic was followed by a reduction in asthma exacerbations in multiple settings internationally. Temporal trends in social mixing, incident acute respiratory infections (ARI) and asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions have not yet been d...

Aims Guidelines recommend anticoagulation (AC) in atrial fibrillation (AF) to reduce stroke and systemic embolism (SSE) risk; however, implementation has been slow across many populations. This study aimed to quantify the potential impact of changing prevalence of AF, associated risk, and AC prescribing on SSE hospitalizations and death. Methods a...

Background With improvements in injury control and advanced trauma care, increasing proportions of children survive major trauma, but population-based data on their long-term health and disability are scant. We investigated these outcomes in the five years following serious childhood injury in Victoria, Australia. Methods Using the Victorian State...

Background Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) represents the most commonly occurring cancer worldwide within the Caucasian population. Reports predict 298 308 cases of BCC in the UK by 2025, at a cost of £265-366 million to the National Health Service (NHS). Despite the morbidity, societal and healthcare pressures that manifest, routinely collected healthc...

Introduction SARS-CoV-2 infection rarely causes hospitalisation in children and young people (CYP), but mild or asymptomatic infections are common. Persistent symptoms following infection have been reported in CYP but subsequent healthcare use is unclear. We aim to describe healthcare use in CYP following community-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and...

To inform the public and policy makers, we investigated and compared the risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) after SARS-Cov-2 vaccination or infection using a national cohort of 2,643,699 individuals aged 17 y and above, alive, and resident in Wales on 1 January 2020 followed up through multiple linked data sources until 28 March 2021....

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on Europe. Health systems came under strain, with non-urgent treatments postponed and resources reserved for treatment of COVID-19 patients. Delayed care seeking has been reported, for fear of infection with SARS-CoV2. Yet, the scale of this impact remains under researched. This study...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic, and its consequences in terms of control measures and restrictions to normal life, has affected the population mental health. One of the four case studies from the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) for COVID-19 is focused on mental health with the objective to measure changes in incidenc...

Introduction: Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are two of the most significant modifiable risk factors for the prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Yet, a third of children in Wales and Australia are overweight or obese, and only 20% of UK and Australian children are sufficiently active. The purpose of the Built Environments An...

Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine...

Background: Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factor...

Background: Studies on COVID-19 pandemic-associated changes in mortality following self-harm remain scarce and inconclusive. Aims: To compare mortality risks in individuals who had self-harmed to those for individuals who had not, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Waves 1 and 2) in Wales, the United Kingdom, using population-based routinely...

Background Multimorbidity poses major challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. Definitions with cut-offs in excess of ≥2 long-term conditions (LTCs) might better capture populations with complexity but are not standardised. Aim To examine variation in prevalence using different definitions of multimorbidity. Design and setting Cross-sectional...

There is a need for better understanding of the risk of thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic, thromboembolic disorders following first, second and booster vaccination doses and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Self-controlled cases series analysis of 2.1 million linked patient records in Wales between 7th December 2020 and 31st December 2021. Outcomes we...

Background: Little is known about how demographic, behavioural, and vaccine-related factors affect risk of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to identify risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection after primary and booster vaccinations. Methods: This prospective, population-based, UK study in adults (≥16 years) vaccinated against SARS-Co...