
Ronan ConnollyIndependent Researcher
Ronan Connolly
PhD
Main research topics: Climate change; Atmospheric science; Global temperature data; Solar variability; COVID-19.
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Introduction
Scientist & environmentalist.
Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (https://www.ceres-science.com/ronan-connolly).
Personal website: https://ronanconnollyscience.com/
Skills and Expertise
Publications
Publications (41)
Several total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite missions have been carried out since 1978. None of these missions have lasted more than one to two solar cycles (SCs), and each mission implies a slightly different absolute TSI baseline. Nonetheless, several satellite composites have been developed by compositing satellite data from different missions...
Since the tropopause was first identified, the quality and resolution of weather balloons has dramatically improved. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) have provided high resolution and very high quality ozonesondes from eight locations: Fiji; American Samoa; Greenland; Antarctica; and several locations in USA (Hawai'i, Colorado, Califo...
On January 22nd, 2024, Climate Feedback (a subsidiary of Science Feedback) posted an alleged “fact-check” claiming to have debunked several statements made by Dr. Willie Soon, CERES-Science co-team leader, during an interview with Tucker Carlson that went online on January 9th, 2024.
This so-called “fact-check” is filled with false and misleading...
Background: Most government efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic revolved around
non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. However, many respiratory diseases show
distinctive seasonal trends. In this manuscript, we examined the contribution of these three factors
to the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Pearson corre...
A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The r...
Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily
relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature
(ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.
In Connolly et al. (2021), we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution o...
Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al. (2021), we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution o...
To reduce the amount of nonclimatic biases of air temperature in each weather station’s record by comparing it with neighboring stations, global land surface air temperature datasets are routinely adjusted using statistical homogenization to minimize such biases. However, homogenization can unintentionally introduce new nonclimatic biases due to an...
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, governments around the world have adopted an array of measures intended to control the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs are public health interventions that do not rely on vaccines or medicines and include policie...
The chromosphere is a highly dynamic outer plasma layer of the Sun. Its physical processes accounting for the variability are poorly understood. We reconstructed the solar chromospheric flare index (SFI) to study the solar chromospheric variability from 1937 to 2020. The new SFI database is a composite record of the Astronomical Institute Ondrˇejov...
The chromosphere is a highly dynamic outer plasma layer of the Sun. Its physical processes accounting for the variability are poorly understood. We reconstructed the solar chromospheric flare index (SFI) to study the solar chromospheric variability from 1937 to 2020. The new SFI database is a composite record of the Astronomical Institute Ondřejov...
In recent years, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories (ESRL) have been launching very high quality and high resolution ozonesondes from eight sites across the globe: Antarctica; Greenland; American Samoa; Fiji; and several sites in USA (Alabama, California, Colorado and Hawai’i). These locations collectively cover the tropics, mid-latitudes and...
The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature dataset is available in two formats - non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the "Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm" (PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can...
The widely used Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) monthly temperature
dataset is available in two formats—non-homogenized and homogenized. Since 2011, this homogenized
dataset has been updated almost daily by applying the “Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm”
(PHA) to the non-homogenized datasets. Previous studies found that the PHA can pe...
In recent decades, efforts to investigate atmospheric circulation patterns have predominantly relied on either semi-empirical datasets (i.e., reanalyses) or modeled output (i.e., global climate models, GCMs). While both approaches can provide important insights, there is a need for more empirical data to supplement these approaches. In this paper,...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have adopted responses revolving around the open-ended use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including “lockdowns”, “stay-at-home” orders, travel restrictions, mask-wearing, and regulated social distancing. Initially these were introduced with the stated goals of “flattening the curve” of hos...
In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends, it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. Sixteen different estimates of the changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature. Half of these estim...
To evaluate the role of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface air temperature trends it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities. 16 different TSI estimates were compiled from the literature. 1/2 of these estimates are low variability and 1/2 are high variability. 5 largely-independent methods for estima...
Concern for climate change is one of the drivers of new, transitional energy policies oriented towards economic growth and energy security, along with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and preservation of biodiversity. Since 2010, the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) has been publishing annual Global Landscape of Climate Finance reports. Accord...
In order to assess the merits of national climate change mitigation policies, it is important to have a reasonable benchmark for how much human-caused global warming would occur over the coming century with "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) conditions. However, currently, policymakers are limited to making assessments by comparing the Global Climate Model...
Our response to Li & Yang (2019)’s comments on our 2018 paper, “Comparing the current and early 20th century warm periods in China”.
We encourage readers of our original 2018 paper to read both Li & Yang's comments and our response for extra insights into some of the issues discussed there. We thank Li & Yang for initiating this additional discuss...
Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from satellite records were compared to those predicted by all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ("CMIP5") climate models over the duration of the satellite's records, i.e., 1967-2018. A total of 196 climate model runs were analyzed (taken from 24 climate models). Separate ana...
Using Greenpeace's published reports, statements and web-pages amongst other things, we carried out a detailed assessment of their approach to campaigning. We then compared their campaign claims to the relevant empirical evidence and scientific literature.
We found that Greenpeace is a very successful business. Their business model can be summari...
Most estimates of Chinese regional Surface Air Temperatures since the late-19th century have identified two relatively warm periods – 1920s–40s and 1990s–present. However, there is considerable debate over how the two periods compare to each other. Some argue the current warm period is much warmer than the earlier warm period. Others argue the earl...
A new seasonal and annual dataset describing Arctic sea ice extents for 1901–2015 was constructed by individually re-calibrating sea ice data sources from the three Arctic regions (North American, Nordic and Siberian) using the corresponding surface air temperature trends for the pre-satellite era (1901–1978), so that the strong relationship betwee...
Debate over what influence (if any) solar variability has had on surface air temperature trends since the 19th century has been controversial. In this paper, we consider two factors which may have contributed to this controversy:
1. Several different solar variability datasets exist. While each of these datasets is constructed on plausible grounds,...
Two independent surveys have found that about 70% of the thermometer stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) dataset are currently poorly or badly sited. Previous investigations into how this poor siting has affected estimates of U.S. temperature trends have led to apparently contradictory conclusions. However, in this study, th...
A previously-overlooked mechanism for energy transmission throughout the atmosphere is presented and characterised. This mechanism, which we have named pervection, involves the transmission of mechanical energy through a mass-in this case, the atmosphere. It is distinct from convection in that it does not require mass transport. It is also distinct...
The extent to which two widely-used monthly temperature datasets are affected by urbanization bias was considered. These were the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN). These datasets are currently the main data sources used to construct the various weather station-based global tem...
Several studies have claimed that the warming bias introduced to global temperature estimates by urbanization bias is negligible. On the basis of this claim, none of the groups calculating global temperature estimates (except for NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) explicitly correct for urbanization bias. However, in this article, by re-eval...
NASA GISS are currently the only group calculating global temperature estimates that explicitly adjust their weather station data for urbanization biases. In this study, their urbanization adjustment procedure was considered. A number of serious problems were found with their urbanization adjustments: 1.) The vast majority of their adjustments invo...
A review of the various global (or hemispheric) millennial temperature reconstructions was carried out. Unlike previous reviews, technical analyses presented via internet blogs were considered in addition to the conventional peer-reviewed literature. There was a remarkable consistency between all of the reconstructions in identifying three climatic...
Atmospheric profiles in North America during the period 2010-2011, obtained from archived weather balloon radiosonde measurements, were analysed in terms of changes of molar density (D) with pressure (P). This revealed a pronounced phase change at the tropopause. The air above the troposphere (i.e., in the tropopause/stratosphere) adopted a "heavy...
In a companion paper, a pronounced phase transition was found to occur between the troposphere and the tropopause/stratosphere regions. In this paper, it is argued that this phase change is due to the formation of multimers of the main atmospheric gases (N2 and O2) in the tropopause/stratosphere. This has several implications for our current unders...
In this January 2014 report, we provide an independent assessment of a proposed Yellow River Wind Farm project. This was a proposal by Green Wind Energy (Wexford) Limited to develop a 32 turbine wind farm on a multi-location site in the northeast part of Co. Offaly, Ireland.
Although this report was a specific analysis of a particular wind farm p...
Single-chain Monte Carlo simulations were carried out, in continuous space, of polymers with various topologies (branched and linear) in the good solvent. Using an inherently flexible bead-and-spring model, the backbone of linear polymers with either linear or dendritic side-groups attached was found to be elongated, indicative of an induced stiffn...
Single−chain Monte Carlo simulations of amphiphilic diblock dendritic copolymers (co-dendrimers) with single and binary trifunctional cores were carried out in continuous space using implicit solvent. Two distinct topologies were studied: dendrimers with the hydrophobic blocks attached to the core, and dendrimers with the polar blocks attached to...
Single-chain simulations of densely branched comb polymers, or "molecular bottle-brushes" with side-chains attached to every (or every second) backbone monomer, were carried out by off-lattice Monte Carlo technique. A coarse-grained model, described by hard spheres connected by harmonic springs, was employed. Backbone lengths of up to 100 units wer...
Single-chain Monte Carlo simulations of amphiphilic diblock star copolymers were carried out in continuous space using implicit solvents. Two distinct architectures were studied: stars with the hydrophobic blocks attached to the core, and stars with the polar blocks attached to the core, with all arms being of equal length. The ratio of the lengths...
Conformations of isolated homo- dendrimers of G=1-7 generations with D=1-6 spacers have been studied in the good and poor solvents, as well as across the coil-to-globule transition, by means of a version of the Gaussian self-consistent (GSC) method and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation in continuous space based on the same coarse-grained model. The latte...
We present results of Monte Carlo study of the monomer-monomer correlation functions, static structure factor and asphericity characteristics of a single homopolymer in the coil and globular states for three distinct architectures of the chain: ring, open and star. To rationalise the results we introduce the dimensionless correlation functions resc...