Ron P. Smith

• Professor of Applied Economics at Birkbeck, University of London

Kaldor called the constancy of certain ratios stylized facts, Klein and Kosobud called them great ratios. While they often appear in theoretical models, the empirical literature finds little evidence for them, perhaps because the procedures used cannot deal with lack of co‐integration, two‐way causality, and cross‐country error dependence. We propo...

The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) attributes differences in expected returns to exposure to systematic risk factors. Two aspects of the APT are considered. Firstly, the factors in the statistical asset pricing model are related to a theoretically consistent set of factors defined by their conditional covariation with the stochastic discount factor...

This paper offers an approach to assessing quality of life, based on Sen's (1985) theory, which it uses to understand loss in quality of life due to mobility impairment. Specifically, it provides a novel theoretical analysis that is able to account for the possibility that some functionings may increase when a person's capabilities decrease, if sub...

Online Appendix for Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends, 2019, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(1), pp.193-222.

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long- term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 -2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We...

Exact collinearity between regressors makes their individual coefficients not identified. But, given an informative prior, their Bayesian posterior means are well defined. Just as exact collinearity causes non-identification of the parameters, high collinearity can be viewed as weak identification of the parameters, which is represented, in line wi...

Exact collinearity between regressors makes their individual coefficients not identified. But, given an informative prior, their Bayesian posterior means are well defined. Just as exact collinearity causes non-identification of the parameters, high collinearity can be viewed as weak identification of the parameters, which is represented, in line wi...

Although the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s data on the 100 largest arms (and military services) producing firms is very widely used for various purposes, there is relatively little quantitative statistical analysis of it. This article discusses some of the issues involved in the econometric analysis of the data. This is complic...

This paper considers tests of the effectiveness of a policy intervention, defined as a change in the parameters of a policy rule, in the context of a macroeconometric dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We consider two types of intervention, first the standard case of a parameter change that does not alter the steady state, and sec...

When there is exact collinearity between regressors, their individual coe¢ cients are not identified, but given an informative prior their Bayesian posterior means are well defined. The case of high but not exact collinearity is more complicated but similar results follow. Just as exact collinearity causes non-identification of the parameters, high...

While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic str...

We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts...

There has been an extensive debate about the role of broadband access regulation on market outcomes. This paper estimates the impact that the different modes of competition have had on broadband take-up to date, using a data set for EU27 countries. We find that ULL, which is one of main types of access-based competition in Europe, has had a positiv...

This paper discusses some of the methodological issues involved in analysing military expenditure data, with particular reference to the extended SIPRI dataset. The discussion is organised under the headings of validity, what is the appropriate concept to measure? reliability, how well is it being measured? and comparability, is the same thing bein...

Wie beeinflusst die Demografie das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriestaaten? Während junge und alte Menschen einen negativen Einfluss haben, ist der Effekt bei der Gruppe im arbeitsfähigen Alter positiv. In einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2015 wurde ein theoretisches Modell entwickelt, um den Zusammenhang zwischen Demografie, Innovation und BIP-Wachst...

We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts...

We analyze the choice often faced by countries of whether to directly intervene to counter an external terrorist threat or to subsidize a foreign government to do it. We present a model which analyzes this policy choice where two countries, home and foreign, face a terrorist threat based in the foreign country. The home country chooses how much to...

This article examines the evolution of concentration in the global arms market, or industry, over the period 1990-2013 and considers its prospects. Using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) list of the largest 100 arms producing firms, it finds that within the international arms industry, there has been change but...

Strategic interactions between countries, such as arms races, alliances and wider economic and political shocks, can induce strong cross-sectional dependence in models of military expenditures using panel data. If the assumption of cross-sectional independence fails, standard panel estimators such as fixed or random effects can lead to misleading i...

We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a pan...

We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR est...

We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a pan...

Drawing on the Senian capability approach to welfare economics and using panel data from the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing (ELSA), this paper illustrates how the approach can be used to shed light on wellbeing in older age. Specifically, we estimate models of variables related to three aspects of a person’s wellbeing: daily activities, happ...

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after the intervention. The test is based on the difference be...

The policy innovations that followed the recent Great Recession, such as unconventional monetary policies, prompted renewed interest in the question of how to measure the effectiveness of such policy interventions. To test policy effectiveness requires a model to construct a counterfactual for the outcome variable in the absence of the policy inter...

In this paper we consider the problem of interpreting the signs of the estimated coefficients in multivariate time series regressions where the regressors are correlated. Using a continuous time model, we argue that focusing on the signs of individual coefficients in such regressions could be misleading and argue in favour of allowing for the indir...

This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) approach to construct a multi-country rational expectations (RE) model and illustrates them with a new Keynesian model for 33 countries estimated with quarterly data over the period 1980–2011. The issues considered are: the measurement of s...

France and the UK face similar geostrategic circumstances: both were once Great Powers and still retain their positions among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. During the Cold War both were dwarfed by the super-powers and were thus extremely sensitive about their status: what the French called their grandeur and the British cal...

Reductions in military expenditure will generate pressures to restructure the defense industry. This article explores the implications of a more peaceful evolution of military expenditure for the economic structure of this industry. For example, since military expenditure and defense industry concentration have moved in opposite directions in the p...

There is a large literature on the economic costs of military conflict, which uses a variety of methods including accounting procedures, statistical models and event studies of how stock markets respond to news of conflict. This literature is not only subject to all the criticisms directed against cost–benefit analysis but also introduces an elemen...

What type of broadband competition has produced the best results for European consumers? To answer this question, the authors compare different types of competition for their impacts on both price and speed, using data from the EU27 countries for 2008–2011. They examine both inter-platform (DSL, cable, fiber, satellite, and wireless local loop) and...

We examine the impact of demographic structure, the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies, mainly for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main macroeconomic variables...

This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it does not. It is argued that for ex post policy evaluati...

Using the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's Conflict Termination Dataset, 1946-2007, we investigate determinants of war duration—how long war lasts before the onset of peace. We provide an exposition of the nature of the data and of the transformations statistical issues involved in quantifying the dynamics of conflict, in particular the onset of pea...

Despite their common British colonial heritage, the twelve Caribbean economies examined in this book exhibit a wide variety of monetary regimes. These include a currency union, currency board, and fixed and floating exchange rate regimes which allow for a range of rules and discretionary-based monetary policies. Derick Boyd and Ron Smith trace the...

This paper is intended to summarise our proposed research project, which is at an early stage. The research will explore the role of imperfect financial markets and public policy in booms and recessions, and influencing growth. The project will examine growth and volatility in many OECD countries, and their relation to financial market structures a...

Academic macroeconomics and the research department of central banks have come to be dominated by Dynamic, Stochastic, General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on micro-foundations of optimising representative agents with rational expectations. We argue that the dominance of this particular sort of DSGE and the resistance of some in the profession t...

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the post...

The Handbook on the Economics of Conflict conveys how economics can contribute to the understanding of conflict in its various dimensions embracing world wars, regional conflicts, terrorism and the role of peacekeeping in conflict prevention. The economics of conflict is a relatively new branch of the discipline of economics. Conflict provides op...

This paper summarises the development of a model created for the England’s Highways Agency, which uses time series and cross sectional econometric techniques to predict average journey times on any given section of the England’s major road network. The purpose of the model is to simulate the impact of changes in road conditions on road delays ac...

This paper uses a large panel of data with up to 19 time-series observations for almost 150 countries to estimate models of arms imports. Qualitative evidence suggests a non-linear relationship. As income and military expenditure grow, the propensity to import first rises and then falls as a domestic arms industry develops. We face the difficulty t...

This paper examines the impact of military expenditure and income on external debt for a panel of six Middle Eastern countries; namely, Oman, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, and Jordan, over the period 1988 to 2002. Using Pedroni's (2004) test for panel cointegration, we find that there is a long-run relationship between external debt, military expend...

Traditionally economic panels had large number of cross-section units and relatively few time periods and econometric methods were developed for such ‘large N small T’ data. More recently panels with observations for a large numbers of time periods have become available on cross-section units like firms, industries, regions or countries. These note...

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate equation. The IS equation includes a real exchange rate variab...

The English (Association) Football League is a long-established industrial cartel selling a highly popular product with only imperfect substitutes. Despite that, the majority of its member clubs lose money and the industry has faced successive financial crises over the last decade. This chapter develops an empirical model of the financial performan...

Military power and conflict have fuelled economic growth throughout history. Money matters to the military; it is needed to finance war and the desire to acquire it is often the motive for fighting. This book examines the interaction of economics and conflict, it explains the economic concepts used, and illustrates them with a range of military exa...

This paper attempts to provide a systematic review of the implications of EMU for the Lucas Critique. It asks how well cointegrating vector autoregressions estimated on pre-Euro data forecast post-Euro data, relative to their pre-Euro standard error. This is done for the Euro area as a whole, 3 countries that joined and 3 European countries that di...

In Keynes' General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the pr...

It has been widely argued that the production of illegal drugs, particularly cocaine, has financed guerrilla activity in Colombia. This paper uses quarterly time-series data for Colombia 1994-2005 to examine the interaction between legal agricultural production, illegal agricultural production of drugs and the number of guerrilla attacks. The time...

SUMMARY High rates of growth of military expenditure in the Third World have increased the military burden and made these countries a major market for weapons. This article examines the linkages by which military expenditure influences growth, capital formation, trade, debt and industry. The empirical evidence reviewed suggests that the net effect...

Even before the August 2007 credit crunch the interaction between real and financial variables had become a central issue in macroeconomics, particularly to Central Bankers. Different theoretical models tend to be used to analyse macro and finance issues and this raises the role of multiple models: Central Banks tend to use many models of the econo...

In Keynes’ General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the pr...

Arms can be developed and produced domestically; developed and produced collaboratively with other countries; produced domestically under license from the foreign firm or government that developed them; or by importing a finished weapon that was developed and produced elsewhere. Importing tends to be the cheapest, domestic development and productio...

Military expenditures have opportunity costs: the other activities that are given up to provide the military resources. In the literature, this is often referred to as the choice between guns or butter or swords and plowshares. The latter choice comes from the Bible. Isiah 2:4 says ‘They will beat their swords into plowshares and their spears into...

It has often been claimed that it is impossible to measure human capabilities but within the methodological conventions of household survey design, this chapter shows that some non-financial capability indicators do already exist and this chapter demonstrates how similar indicators, covering a wide range of life domains, can be constructed. This ch...

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military expenditure database for the period 1988-2003, finding broadl...

OECD unemployment rates show long swings which dominate shorter business cycle components and these long swings show a range of common patterns. Using a panel of 21 OECD countries 1960-2002, we estimate the common factor that drives unemployment by the first principal component. This factor has a natural interpretation as a measure of global expect...

OECD unemployment rates show long swings which dominate shorter business cycle components and these long swings show a range of common patterns. Using a panel of 21 OECD countries 1960-2002, we estimate the common factor that drives unemployment by the first principal component. This factor has a natural interpretation as a measure of global expect...

New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires specifying the process for the...

of International Security, the power of the Nation State and all that sort of stuff. However, I should warn you that when English empiricists try to adopt French theoretical wings, they tend to splash down in the middle of the Channel, as I fear I may do, not quite making the transition from the empirical detail to the meaning of it all. I have alw...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) and focuses on two issues: the weak instrument problem and the characterization of the steady states. It proposes some solutions from a global perspective. Using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model steady states are estimated as long-horizon expectations and...

Arms races – enduring rivalries between pairs of hostile powers, which prompt competitive acquisition of military capability – appear to be a pervasive phenomenon. From the past Cold War competition, between the US and the USSR, to present regional antagonisms, such as India and Pakistan, arms races remain a matter of continuing concern.This chapte...

It has often been claimed that it is impossible to measure human capabilities but within the methodological conventions of household survey design, we show that some non- financial capability indicators do already exist and we demonstrate how similar indicators, covering a wide range of life domains, can be constructed. This chapter draws on a cont...

This paper has considers the interpretation of the empirical results of the developing literature on the demand for military spending that specifies a general model with arms race and spillover effects and estimates it on cross-section and panel data. It questions whether it is meaningful to talk of an ‘arms race’ in panel data or cross-section dat...

This paper models the determination of the defence industrial base - the number of different military systems a country decides to maintain. High R&D costs means that few countries can afford to produce major weapons systems and the producers also import systems. Non-producers rely on imports and we assume their demand is driven by regional arms ra...

The study examines how institutional framework provided varying degrees of constraints on monetary policy and economic performance in 12 Caribbean economies. A univariate analysis is used on the price variables to conduct a comparative analysis on the persistence of inflation.

In this paper we use OECD unemployment data 1960–2002 to infer the nature of shocks to unemployment using factor analysis. We find that two principal components can account for a large part of the variance of unemployment between and within countries.

Richardson's action-reaction model of an arms race has prompted a considerable body of research that has attempted to empirically estimate such models. In general these attempts have been unsuccessful. This paper provides an extensive reconsideration of the estimation issues and using some recent developments in time-series econometrics, provides a...

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as those of the euro area. We derive conditional probabili...