Publications

  • Lucia Rotaris · Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Commuting is the single largest impact a University has on the environment and represents a noticeable share of urban traffic, when the University is located within a city. There is a large amount of literature on which policies could reduce car use and improve the environmental and social sustainability of commuting to college. However, most studies focus, to the best of our knowledge, only on the effectiveness of such policies, disregarding their social efficiency, measured as the difference between the social costs and benefits. This paper presents an estimate of the effectiveness and the efficiency of nine hypothetical transport policies regarding the University of Trieste, Italy, on the basis of a transport demand model estimated via revealed and stated choice data. All policies but one are effective in reducing car use, but only six of them appear to be efficient. We find that fully subsidizing bus fares would be the most effective and efficient policy. However, it is doubtful whether fully subsidizing bus fares is financially sustainable. The second best policy would be a mix of bus subsidies and parking restrictions. In case of the University of Trieste, our model suggests the adoption of a policy mix based on a relatively low hourly parking tariff (€0.3 per hour) and the use of the parking revenues to subsidize the bus users. The methodology and the results presented in this paper can be used by the college Mobility Managers to design better transport policies.
    No preview · Article · Nov 2015 · Transport Policy
  • Andrea Rusich · Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: This paper estimates the total cost of ownership, social lifecycle cost and energy consumption of 66 cars with different fuel/powertrains available in Italy in 2013. The aim is to provide the various private and public decision makers with information that could allow them to better understand the current market penetration of the various automotive technologies and to predict the future one. It is found that the car operated by conventional fuels (gasoline, diesel) is currently the least expensive as far as the total costs of ownership are concerned. The bi-fuel liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and the bi-fuel compressed natural gas (CNG) internal combustion engine vehicles are in the same price range. Both the battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and, especially, the hybrid ICEVs are more expensive. On the contrary, the social lifecycle costs of the BEVs are the lowest, thanks not only to their zero air pollutants' emissions in the use phase but also to their reduced noise emissions. The amount of the social costs relative to the total cost of ownership, estimated using recent European parameters, represents at the most 6% of the total cost. Consequently, even if the external costs were internalized, the alternative fuel vehicles would not become convenient for the final consumer from a monetary point of view. Considering the energy consumption, with the 2011 Italian energy production mix, the BEVs and the diesel hybrid are the most energy efficient cars. Focusing on 7 specific models, and simulating realistic scenarios, it is found that the relative ranking of the BEVs in terms of total costs improves moderately when the traveled distance increases, subsidies are introduced and battery price drops. However, the BEVs become convenient only when the annual distance traveled is at least 20,000 km, a value much higher than the current Italian average and posing serious issues in terms of vehicles' range. Only a joint reduction of the battery price to €240/kWh from initial estimated cost of €412/kWh and the introduction of a subsidy would make the BEVs competitive with the current average Italian annual distance traveled.
    No preview · Article · Jul 2015 · Research in Transportation Economics
  • Eva Valeri · Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: This paper evaluates the market penetration of cars with alternative fuelpowertrain technologies in Italy under various scenarios. Seven cars on sale in 2013 are considered: the Ford Fiesta (diesel), the VW Polo (gasoline), the Fiat Punto Evo (bi-fuel – CNG), the Natural Power Alfa Romeo Mito (bi-fuel – LPG), the Toyota Yaris (hybrid – gasoline), the Peugeot iOn (BEV – owned battery), the Renault Zoe (BEV – leased battery). A Mixed Error Component Logit model is estimated based on data collected via a stated preference choice survey administered in 2013 in various Italian cities. The model's parameters are then used to build a Monte Carlo simulation model which allows evaluating, under different scenarios, the market penetration of the seven cars. The main findings are that (a) the subsidies enacted by the Italian government in favour of the low CO2 emitting cars appear to favour mostly the Ford Fiesta (diesel); (b) a three-fold increase in the BEVs range would not change their market share significantly (about 2%); and (c) only a combination of changes such as the introduction of a subsidy equal to €5000, the decrease of the purchase price for BEVs by €5000, the increase in the battery range, and the increase in the conventional fuel price would significantly increase the BEVs' market share, raising it to about 15%.
    No preview · Article · Jan 2015 · Transport Policy
  • Romeo Danielis · Lucia Rotaris · Andrea Rusich · Eva Valeri
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    ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential demand for carsharing, to this aim a model which calculates the total generalized cost for a given mobility pattern and transport mode mix is developed. The model considers: a) that a person sometimes travels with friends and family, and therefore shares the travel expenses and/or satisfies several travel needs, and b) that uses in given time period more than one mode of transport. The parameters of the model are derived by detailed, face-to-face, computer-assisted interviews. A limited number of interviews have been so far completed. However, they hint to some very interesting empirical evidence. It is found that car ownership is currently very high in the Italian families and that the car is used extensively both for work \ study and, especially, for other-than-work \ study trip purposes. Offering a carsharing service (CS) would enhance the mode choice and could, in some cases, lower the total mobility costs. The respondents assign quite a large value to the pleasure of owning a car, much more so than the pleasure of being carsharing users, both for workers and for students. Consequently, the respondents would dislike not owing a private car, while having the choice between the private and the carsharing car is preferred especially by the students. The mobility cost indicators reflect, but not perfectly, the preference-based choices of the sample. Three individual case studies are further analyzed. They have been defined as: a low, a medium and a high mobility case study. The low mobility case study shows that these persons would largely benefit from the existence of a CS service, they would use it occasionally and they would probably be willing to forgo the private car. The medium mobility case study shows that the variables parking time, access time and CS fare can easily switch the balance between convenience and inconvenience of using CS. The higher mobility case study in a small town setting demonstrates that in such circumstances the prospects for a viable CS service are rather bleak.
    No preview · Article · Nov 2014 · Rivista Internazionale di Economia dei Transporti / International Journal of Transport Economics
  • Lucia Rotaris · Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Universities, like other types of public and private institutions, when located in a city, have both positive and negative impacts on the area where they are situated. On the one hand, they contribute to the prestige of the area; on the other hand, they are large generators/attractors of traffic. The ability to successfully balance the pros and cons of the urban location of these large traffic-generating institutions is crucial for their success and for the livability of the city. In this paper this issue has been analyzed selecting as a representative case the University of Trieste. The aim of the research is to understand: (a) how mode choice decisions are made by the teaching and administrative staff and by the students at the various locations where academic activities take place, and (b) how they would be affected by 8 different transport management policies. It is found that changing the parking regulations (via the annual permit cost, the hourly parking fee, the number of parking spaces and the location of the parking lots) greatly influences mode choice in favor of bus use, especially for teaching and administrative staff and in the suburban locations. The students would be impacted by such changes only if an hourly parking tariff is introduced. The alternative approach of fully subsidizing the bus services would also have a large impact on bus ridership, affecting the mode choice in particular of the teaching staff and in the main university suburban sites. Since the implementation of these bus-favoring policies could face the opposition either of the university staff or of the bus company, two more balanced policy mixes were tested: the first one, increasing parking price and imposing new parking restrictions, would increase bus ridership by 19%; the second one, reducing both bus and parking subsidies, would increase bus ridership by 13%.
    No preview · Article · Sep 2014 · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice
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    Eva Valeri · Romeo Danielis · Tim Pofuk · Lucia Rotaris · Andrea Rusich
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    ABSTRACT: Sommario: Il lavoro presenta i risultati di una ricerca di mercato, condotta intervistando 121 persone, residenti in varie regioni italiane e non, avente l'obiettivo di stimare i possibili scenari di penetrazione di automobili con differente tipo di alimentazione in relazione ad eventuali politiche di incentivazione statale, a possibili variazioni nei prezzi dei combustili e nel prezzo di acquisto delle auto elettriche ed ad innovazioni tecnologiche che aumentano l'autonomia delle batterie. Sono state prese in considerazione 7 tipologie di automobili, appartenenti prevalentemente alla Classe B: la VW Polo (benzina), la Ford Fiesta (diesel), la Fiat Punto Evo (bifuel -metano), la Natural Power Alfa Romeo Mito (bifuel -GPL), la Toyota Yaris (ibrida -benzina), la Peugeot Ion (elettrica con batteria di proprietà) e la Renault Zoe (elettrica con batteria a noleggio). Ad ogni persona è stato sottoposto un questionario e degli esercizi di scelta ipotetica. Le risposte ottenute hanno permesso di stimare un modello di scelta discreta di tipo mixed logit e di elaborare un modello di simulazione. Le simulazioni indicano che le preferenze dei consumatori, tra i 7 modelli considerati nello studio e scelti come rappresentativi della Classe B di automobili, con gli attuali prezzi di acquisto e caratteristiche tecnologie delle automobili, vedono con maggior favore soprattutto la Ford Fiesta (diesel) (72,9% come prima scelta) e, in seconda battuta, la Toyota Yaris (ibrida -benzina) con il 18,6% come prima scelta ed il 71,6% come seconda scelta. Le automobili elettriche -la Peugeot Ion (elettrica con batteria di proprietà) e la Renault Zoe (elettrica con batteria a noleggio) -si attestano attorno ad un promettente 6,5% come prima scelta, con una preferenza per quelle con batteria di proprietà. L'introduzione del contributo statale per l'acquisto di auto a basse emissioni e il probabile aumento dell'autonomia delle automobili elettriche rovesciano l'ordinamento di preferenza: la Toyota Yaris (ibrida -benzina) diventa la scelta preferita seguita dalla Ford Fiesta (diesel), mentre le auto elettriche crescono fino ad arrivare in qualche scenario a circa il 12%. Solo in uno scenario estremamente favorevole alle automobili elettriche con la presenza congiunta del contributo statale e dell'eventuale aumento del prezzo dei carburanti di origine fossile o di un'ulteriore diminuzione di 5.000€ del prezzo delle automobili elettriche, eventualmente reso possibile dalla diminuzione dei prezzi delle batterie o dal godimento delle economie di scala, le automobili elettriche raggiungono un significativo livello che si attesta a circa il 24% come prima scelta. Parole chiave: Domanda di automobili, penetrazione di mercato, preferenze dichiarate, modello a scelta discreta, simulazione.
    Full-text · Dataset · Jun 2013
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    Andrea Rusich · Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Sommario: Questo articolo stima i costi privati derivanti dal possesso dell'automobile ed i costi sociali inerenti l'intero ciclo di vita del carburante per sette modelli di automobile (la benzina VW Polo, la diesel Ford Fiesta, la Fiat Punto Evo Natural Power bi-fuel metano-benzina, l'Alfa Romeo MiTo bi-fuel Gpl-benzina, l'ibrida Toyota Yaris, l'elettrica con leasing della batteria Renault Zoe e l'elettrica con proprietà della batteria Peugeot iOn) attualmente in vendita in Italia, utilizzando per l'analisi dati nazionali relativi all'acquisto dei veicoli, ai prezzi dei carburanti e dell'energia elettrica, ai costi di manutenzione, ai costi dell'inquinamento atmosferico e del rumore, al mix energetico. Tra i modelli di automobile considerati, la Ford Fiesta (diesel) è la migliore dal punto di vita del costo totale privato e del consumo di energia relativo al ciclo di vita del carburante, ma la peggiore in termini di costi sociali (inquinamento atmosferico globale, locale e rumore), i quali sono pari a circa il 2,7% del totale dei costi privati. La Toyota Yaris (ibrida) è un'altra scelta molto buona in termini di costi privati (la seconda migliore) ed efficace anche in termini di costi sociali (second best). Tra i modelli bi-fuel, la Fiat Punto (metano-benzina) offre le migliori prestazioni sia in termini di costi privati che sociali. La VW Polo (benzina) ha costi privati più elevati della Ford Fiesta (diesel) e anche della Toyota Yaris (ibrido), risultando invece leggermente migliore rispetto alla Ford Fiesta (diesel) in termini di costi sociali. Contrariamente alle aspettative comuni, i modelli di automobili elettriche sono meno performanti, rispetto alle altre vetture considerate, in termini di consumi energetici e costi connessi all'inquinamento locale mentre risultano solo leggermente migliori rispetto alle automobili convenzionali in termini di costi connessi all'inquinamento globale (CO 2). Solamente quando si tengono in considerazione anche i costi dell'inquinamento acustico, le auto elettriche diventano le migliori scelte in termini di costi sociali. Infine, si propone una analisi di scenario per valutare come la classifica delle vetture sia influenzata da alcuni parametri: anni di possesso del veicolo, chilometri annui percorsi, incentivi resi disponibili dal Governo italiano per le automobili meno inquinanti, aumento del prezzo dei carburante convenzionali (benzina e gasolio), una diminuzione del costo di produzione delle batterie.
    Full-text · Dataset · Jun 2013
  • Danielis R. · Maggi E. · Rotaris L. · Valeri E.

    No preview · Chapter · May 2013
  • Lucia Rotaris · Romeo Danielis · Paolo Rosato
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    ABSTRACT: Although the value of travel time (VTT) is extensively used in transport economics in order to conduct cost–benefit analysis and there have been numerous studies estimating this information for different countries, transport modes and type of users, there are very few estimates for the university students commuting from their hometown to the university-town. This article presents a VTT estimate for the students enrolled at the University of Trieste (Italy) based on sequential approach which: (1) collects revealed preference data in order to estimate a preliminary VTT; (2) generates C-efficient Bayesian designs pivoted around the characteristics of homogenous segments of the population and (3) administers an integrated revealed and stated preference questionnaire to a selected sample. The estimate obtained on the basis of the combined revealed and stated preference data ranges from 2.8 to 1.4€/h is significantly lower than the estimates obtained on the bases of the revealed preference data only, which ranges from 18 to 13€/h, and differs from the VTT for commuting to work reported in the literature by a factor of about 6.
    No preview · Article · Jul 2012
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    Lucia Rotaris · Romeo Danielis · Igor Sarman · Edoardo Marcucci
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    ABSTRACT: Manufacturing firms buy transport services with the aim of minimizing their total logistics cost. There is a large amount of literature analyzing how shippers value the various characteristics of a transport service, mostly performed by collecting stated-preference data and estimating discrete choice models. Most of the empirical studies specify the deterministic part of the utility functions as linear in the observed attributes. This implicitly constrains the characteristics of the analyzed transport service to be perfect substitutes, and to have a constant substitutability ratio. Such an assumption is inconsistent with the standard microeconomic theory, typically assuming inputs’ decreasing marginal productivity, and may not be realistic. The paper tests the linearity assumption for freight rate, travel time, probability of having damaged and lost freight, frequency, flexibility, mode and punctuality on a sample of Italian small- and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME). Our findings suggest that the linearity-in-the-attributes assumption should be rejected and that the marginal impact on the utility-of-profit of the attributes is not constant. More specifically travel time and freight rate produce decreasing marginal reductions of the utility-of-profit; while safety (percentage of not damaged or lost shipments) and punctuality (percentage of shipments on time) are responsible for increasing marginal contributions to the utility-of-profit. The substitutability ratios between (a) freight rate and loss and damage, (b) freight rate and travel time, (c) freight rate and punctuality, (d) travel time and damage and loss and (e) travel time and punctuality are estimated and found not constant. Finally, it is found that the willingness to pay for the qualitative attributes obtained with a linearly specified model tend to be overestimated.
    Full-text · Article · Apr 2012 · European Transport\Trasporti Europei
  • L. Rotaris · R. Danielis · P. Rosato
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    ABSTRACT: Italian university students often attend a university located in a nearby city, and choose between commuting from their home town and living in the city where the university is located. The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that influence this choice. A conceptual framework is developed and an empirical investigation is performed analysing as driving factors the distance between home town and university town, rental costs, travel time, weekly frequency of attendance, course year in which the student is enrolled, student's age and family income. According to the results obtained the critical isochrone varies from 65 to 75 km, and the monetary value of one hour of travel time is 13 euros. Finally, the impact of the policies currently implemented by the University of Trieste is analysed.
    No preview · Article · Jan 2012 · Scienze Regionali
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    R. Danielis · L. Rotaris · E. Marcucci · J. Massiani
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    ABSTRACT: The paper provides an evaluation of the Ecopass road pricing scheme for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. The term Ecopass conveys the stated political objective of the scheme: a PASS to improve the quality of the urban environment (ECO). The scheme has actually improved the air quality in Milan, although the recommended PM10 threshold is still exceeded for a larger number of days than that recommended by EU directives. This paper estimates the costs and benefits of the scheme three years after its implementation using the same methodology applied in Rotaris et al. (2010) for the year 2008. The results indicate that the benefits still exceed the costs, and by an increasing amount, but at an annual decreasing rate of improvement. The Ecopass scheme has proved beneficial, but it seems to have exhausted its potential: little further gains in air quality could be obtained via a fiscal incentive to improve the abatement technology of the vehicles. The new administration, elected in June 2011, was faced with the task of deciding whether to dismiss, maintain or change the Ecopass scheme. The prevailing idea coming from the Ecopass Commission and from the advocacy groups was to extend both the area of application and the number of classes subject to the charge. In November 2011 the new administration decided to substitute Ecopass with Area C, a policy based on a congestion charge which incorporates some environmental elements.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2012 · Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment
  • Edoardo Marcucci · Amanda Stathopoulos · Romeo Danielis

    No preview · Article · Jan 2012
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    Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: L’uscita del volume “Le infrastrutture in Italia: dotazione, programmazione, realizzazione”, pubblicato recentemente dalla Banca d’Italia, a cura di Fabrizio Balassone e Piero Casadio, è un’ottima occasione per fare il punto sulla politica delle infrastrutture e dei trasporti. ll volume raccoglie una serie di ricerche presentate nel corso di un workshop tenuto a Perugia il 14-15 ottobre 2010 e di un convegno tenutosi a Roma il 28 aprile 2011. Il volume, assai corposo, tocca molti temi tra cui: la relazione tra investimenti pubblici e crescita economica; la dotazione e l'accessibilità delle infrastrutture sul territorio; le risorse finanziarie, pubbliche e private, destinate alle opere pubbliche; le procedure che governano la programmazione e la realizzazione degli investimenti; le reti e i servizi di trasporto. Per gli scopi di questo articolo, pur essendo molti dei contributi presentanti assai rilevanti, prenderemo spunto soprattutto dai lavori inerenti le infrastrutture e le politiche riguardanti il trasporto, sia passeggeri che di merci. Prima di inoltrarci nell’analisi delle diverse modalità è opportuno dotarsi di uno schema concettuale che faccia da guida nel percorso
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2012
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    Lucia Rotaris · Romeo Danielis · Igor Sarman · Edoardo Marcucci
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    ABSTRACT: Manufacturing firms buy transport services with the aim of minimizing their total logistics cost. There is a large amount of literature analyzing how shippers value the various characteristics of a transport service, mostly performed by collecting stated-preference data and estimating discrete choice models. Most of the empirical studies specify the deterministic part of the utility functions as linear in the observed attributes. This implicitly constrains the characteristics of the analyzed transport service to be perfect substitutes, and to have a constant substitutability ratio. Such an assumption is inconsistent with the standard microeconomic theory, typically assuming inputs' decreasing marginal productivity, and may not be realistic. The paper tests the linearity assumption for freight rate, travel time, probability of having damaged and lost freight, frequency, flexibility, mode and punctuality on a sample of Italian small-and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SME). Our findings suggest that the linearity-in-the-attributes assumption should be rejected and that the marginal impact on the utility-of-profit of the attributes is not constant. More specifically travel time and freight rate produce decreasing marginal reductions of the utility-of-profit; while safety (percentage of not damaged or lost shipments) and punctuality (percentage of shipments on time) are responsible for increasing marginal contributions to the utility-of-profit. The substitutability ratios between (a) freight rate and loss and damage, (b) freight rate and travel time, (c) freight rate and punctuality, (d) travel time and damage and loss and (e) travel time and punctuality are estimated and found not constant. Finally, it is found that the willingness to pay for the qualitative attributes obtained with a linearly specified model tend to be overestimated.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2012
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    ABSTRACT: The paper provides an evaluation of the Ecopass scheme for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. The term Ecopass conveys the stated political objective of the scheme: a PASS to improve the quality of the urban environment (ECO). The scheme has actually improved the air quality in Milan, although the recommended PM 10 threshold is still exceeded for a larger number of days than that recommended by EU directives. This paper estimates the costs and benefits of the scheme three years after its implementation using the same methodology applied in Rotaris et al. (2010) for the year 2008. It results that the benefits still exceed the costs by an increasing amount, but at an annual decreasing rate of improvement. The Ecopass scheme has proved beneficial, but it seems to have exhausted its potential: little further gains in environmental quality could be obtained via a fiscal incentive to improve the abatement technology of the vehicles. The new administration, elected in June 2011, is faced with the task of deciding whether to dismiss, maintain or change the Ecopass scheme. The prevailing idea coming from the Ecopass Commission and from the advocacy groups is to extend both the area of application and the number of classes subject to the charge. A move from a pollution charge to a congestion charge, or at least a combination of a pollution and a congestion charge is envisaged.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2012
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    Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: The paper illustrates the results of a research project aimed at identifying the main economic and industrial characteristics of the port system of the Friuli Venezia Giulia Region, Italy, and the role it plays within the economy. Combing a top-down and bottom-up approach, based on interviews and detailed data at firm level, a bi-regional input-output table is built with a special disaggregation of the 12 port-related sectors of the Friuli Venezia Giulia region. The input-output table provides the basis for the estimation of a bi-regional input-output model. Drawing from the input-output literature, the paper also implements two methodologies to estimate: a) the level of self-sufficiency of the port system and b) its degree of substitutability, that is, what would happen if the Friuli Venezia Giulia port system closes down, completely or partially.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2012 · Maritime Economics & Logistics
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    Danielis R. · Rotaris L. · Valeri E.
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    ABSTRACT: The paper discusses the possibility of introducing a carsharing service in a tourist area to enhance the mobility alternatives available to tourists, improve the accessibility to the tourist sites, increase the location attractiveness and, in some instances, preserve the quality of the environment. Such a possibility is already implemented in some locations. In order to evaluate the potential demand and the economic sustainability of such a service, which could be implemented both by private and public organization, a simulation model is presented and parameterized with data relative to Italy. The model allows testing which tariff and organizational structure is more convenient.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2012 · Rivista italiana di economia, demografia e statistica
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    ABSTRACT: Residential mobility modelling is an integral part of urban planning in which house-hold locations determine demand for community facilities and services öincluding transportation systems. Agent interaction within families has, with few exceptions, been considered irrelevant when studying group decisions. Study assumptions have often used the representative member hypothesis to operationalise theoretical models. Along these lines empirical studies, employing stated preference (SP) techniques to analyse group behaviour, have generally ignored potentially important issues inherent in multiperson choices. Not considering thèappropriate' unit of analysis generates biased welfare estimates and erroneous policy decisions especially when the represen-tative member hypothesis is adopted which implies that information is gathered from a single individual (Adamowicz et al, 2005; Molin et al, 1999). Recent studies have questioned the practice of treating group preferences as coincident with those of single members: this should be tested rather than assumed. There is clear evidence both of preference differences between family members and of dissimilarities between choices made individually and jointly (Bateman and Munro, 2005; Beharry-Borg et al, 2009; Dosman and Adamowicz, 2006; Hensher et al, 2008). This paper investigates the differences between distinct household member types (ie adolescent, wife, husband), and their joint choices (family) of residential location by formulating three hypotheses.
    Full-text · Article · May 2011 · Environment and Planning A
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    Lucia Rotaris · Romeo Danielis
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    ABSTRACT: Coffee can be distributed via the conventional supply chain or via the alternative fair trade supply chain. The implications of this choice on the distribution of the value added among the actors of the chain are relevant. Fair trade coffee rewards relatively more the producers located in the developing countries. A survey applying stated preference data collection methods to Italian households has demonstrated that they are willing to pay a premium price for the certified fair trade coffee of about 2.2 euros for a 250 gram coffee packet. This premium price, however, can vary significantly according to age, gender, income, and purchasing habits of the consumers. The methodology used implemented state-of-the-art survey design techniques and advanced models specifications to capture preference heterogeneity.
    Full-text · Article · Jan 2011 · Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization

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