Rohan Gunaratna

Nanyang Technological University | ntu · S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

A collection of case studies of terrorist rehabilitation programmes from around the world, this book examines the wide-ranging methodologies of terrorist deradicalisation initiatives adopted by different countries globally. It contextualises these programmes as they were initiated and explains the factors that led to their relative success, failure...

A wave of political, religious and cultural radicalization is driving hate and terrorism throughout Asia. With IS entering a new phase, Asian governments should manage the extent of the emerging threat through their own security and intelligence agencies. The Indonesian Minister of Defense Riyamizard Riyacudu has succeeded in getting defense intell...

Quest for significance theory (Kruglanski et al., 2013; Kruglanski, Jasko, Chernikova, Dugas, & Webber 2017) states that extreme behavior for an ideological cause is more likely under psychological conditions that induce a search for significance and social recognition. Two forms of motivation for significance have been identified; the quest for in...

This chapter discusses the conditions that may lead to the recidivism of violent extremists and examine them from the conceptual perspective represented in the 3N model of radicalization. It specifically considers macro-, mezzo-, and micro-level factors assumed to bear on the recidivism of deradicalized extremists. The macro-level factors include s...

This chapter contains a review of major prior theories of radicalization that adopt sociological, political science, or psychiatric perspectives. The chapter then compares the previous theories with the authors’ 3N theory, which posits that radicalization occurs due to a convergence of individuals’ needs, the narrative to which they are exposed, an...

This opening chapter of The Three Pillars of Radicalization provides an in-depth analysis of the problem of radicalization and identifies the psychological questions that it raises. It contextualizes the current spread of violent extremism around the globe and discusses the two main approaches to counterterrorism: the hard approach, also referred t...

This chapter presents a new evaluation tool for determining the degree of success of deradicalization programs. This battery consists of elements that represent the 3N pillars: It contains tools for assessing individuals’ quest for significance, their adherence to an ideological narrative that supports violence, and their membership in social netwo...

In this chapter, the authors discuss the unprecedented impact of the current wave of violent extremism on world politics and culture. From the rise of right-wing anti-immigrant parties and leaders around the world to the immense economic costs incurred by individuals, publics, and nations in the war on terror. It proposes that a major challenge fac...

This chapter addresses the phenomenon of deradicalization, the reversal of radicalization. Is deradicalization even possible? Has it ever happened? If so, how can it occur? And what may prevent it from taking place? Addressing these questions, the authors propose that the movement toward moderation is determined by the same general factors as the m...

This chapter examines cutting-edge empirical evidence related to the psychology of terrorism. This evidence is gleaned through a variety of methods that include surveys and experiments carried out in the laboratory and in the field. It contains samples from a variety of locations and conflict zones such as the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia,...

This chapter proposes the 3N theory of radicalization, which happens as a result of three elements coming together: the individuals’ needs, the narrative to which they are exposed, and the networks in which they are embedded. The first N, the need element, pertains to individuals’ quest for personal significance—the desire to matter and to have res...

This chapter describes 10 instances of radicalization in which individuals committed or attempted to commit politically motivated acts of extreme violence against others. What strikes one about these depictions is that the perpetrators’ backgrounds and circumstances couldn’t be more different: They varied vastly in age, gender, culture, and beliefs...

This chapter examines the historical context of the current wave of extremism, recounting the unfolding of the war on terror declared by President George W. Bush in the aftermath of the tragic attacks by Al Qaeda on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon. It discusses the fight against Al Qaeda core in the Pakistan–Afghanistan region a...

K.P.S. Gill's imprint on the history of counter-terrorism is incomparable. The comprehensive defeat he inflicted on Khalistani terrorism in the Punjab and his contributions to policing in regions of widespread disorder were exceptional, exemplary. He encapsulated the masterful strategic approach to terrorism and crisis policing as no other leader h...

What fuels radicalization? Is de-radicalization a possibility? The Three Pillars of Radicalization: Needs, Narratives, and Networks addresses these crucial questions by identifying the three major determinants of radicalization that progresses into violent extremism. The first determinant is the need: individuals’ universal desire for personal sign...

Despite battlefield losses and reversals in Iraq and Syria, the multiple suicide bombings in Sri Lanka on 21 April 2019 demonstrated that the so-called Islamic State (IS) is entering a new phase of global expansion.

The Sri Lankan government has blamed a little-known Islamist group for the suicide bombings that left more than 300 people dead in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday. But the coordinated attacks bear the hallmarks of those done by hardline militant groups with international networks, like the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda. IS has not claimed responsibi...

The global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State (ISIS) goes through a phase of readaptation and decentralization. The group has established clandestine and underground structures to survive in Iraq and Syria. Its ideology is still intact and continues to be propagated in cyberspace. In the provinces, gro...

The global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group goes through a phase of re-adaptation and de-centralisation. This threat will remain given the global failure to resolve the underlying causes of extremism and terrorism.

The global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State (IS) go through a phase of re-adaptation and de-centralisation. The group has established clandestine and underground structures to survive in Iraq and Syria. Its ideology is still intact and continues to be propagated in cyber space. In the provinces, group...

The global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to persist in 2019 as the Islamic State (IS) is going through a phase of re-adaptation and decentralisation. The group has established clandestine and underground structures to survive in Iraq and Syria. Its ideology is still intact and continues to be propagated in cyber space. In the provinces,...

The global terrorist and extremist threat is likely to rise this year with the United States retreating from the epicentres of conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq/Syria. President Donald Trump's announcement to withdraw from Syria and draw down from Afghanistan will allow both the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda to rejuvenate. As...

The contemporary threat of terrorism within Southeast Asia is national, regional and global in nature. The threat groups are operationally and ideologically linked and derive support from segments of their vulnerable communities. The current and emerging threat cannot be eradicated by any single state. Due to globalisation, threats that were once i...

ISIS may have suffered battlefield reverses, but in some respects – not least ideologically – it is resilient. Analysts, academics and security officials should resist the impulse to call time on the study of these types of issues – this mistake has been made before.

Over the last months, Daesh has lost most of its territory in Iraq and Syria. Many of its fighters have been killed in combat or fled the conflict zone. Although this might affect its capabilities in the short-run, it certainly does not mean a demise of violent extremism and terrorism nor Daesh as an organization. Daesh has instead decentralized it...

The death of Bahrun Naim, the directing figure of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia, demonstrates that by working together, governments can prevent and pre-empt attacks.

Muhammad Bahrunnaim Anggih Tamtomo (alias Bahrun Naim) was killed in a U.S. airstrike on June 8 as he was riding a motorcycle in Ash Shafa, Syria, about two years after counter-terror forces began tracking him. After the Islamic State (IS) was defeated in its Syrian capital of Raqqa, Bahrun Naim moved to the hilly and desert region in southern Syr...

In June 2018, Bahrun Naim, a key Southeast Asian terrorist was killed in a counter terrorist operation in Syria. He was one of the most notorious directing figures of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia. His activities and reach underline the need for greater cooperation and collaboration among governments in counter-terrorism efforts.

The post 9/11 era has produced structured rehabilitation programmes in a wide range of countries including Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Pakistan, Malaysia, Egypt, Iraq, and Uzbekistan. There are also ad hoc and emerging programmes in Nigeria, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Denmark, Germany, United Kingdom, and Nepal. Due to the threat from global Islami...

The threat of terrorism, if not adequately managed, is likely to increase exponentially. As terrorist groups’ influence and networks spread globally, a concerted effort in counterterrorism strategy is critical to mitigating the threat they present. Governments facing the threat of terrorism are typically strengthening their law enforcement, militar...

In March 1995, the Tokyo subway attack by Aum Shinrikyo signaled the emergence of a new global trend in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear terrorism. In July 2018, Japan executed the group’s leadership, but it is reemerging both in Japan and overseas. Japan should criminalise Aum Shinrikyo as an organisation and its affiliated entities...

It is my great pleasure to guest edit this special issue of the Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism examining the current state of terrorism and political violence through the Asia Pacific. The Asia-Pacific region continues to face a renewed insurgent, terrorist and extremist threat due to the emergence of Islamic State (IS) an...

After prisoners seized control of an Indonesia maximum security facility housing 155 terrorist inmates and a baby, Islamic State (IS) leaders in Syria instructed their followers inside to fight until death. But Indonesian police checkmated IS’s plans for a bloodbath inside the penitentiary in Kelapa Dua, near Jakarta, held by inmates from May 8-10...

n the days leading up to Ramadan 2018, Indonesia suffered a spate of terrorist attacks. These were among the worst attacks seen in years and they left 48 people dead, including members of two families who carried out suicide bombings in Surabaya. Indonesia’s changing threat landscape was evident in the repertoire of a series of events, which inclu...

At the height of its power, ISIS was perceived as the biggest contemporary terrorist threat to world security. In this paper, we analyze the phenomenon of ISIS and its unique history through the lens of general social psychological principles that might have contributed to its stunning—even if only temporary—success. We suggest that ISIS represents...

The March 2018 Sinhala-Muslim riots in Sri Lanka underline growing communal schisms in the island state. This article examines the rise of Sinhala ultra-nationalism and the violent groups primarily responsible for Sinhala-Muslim unrest since 2012. The establishment’s insufficient and delayed response to anti-Muslim violence for fear of alienating t...

Following its defeat in Iraq and Syria last year the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) has expanded to other parts of the Muslim world including Southeast Asia by linking up with local militant groups. Countries in the region recognise the need for stronger cooperation in counter-terrorism and are increasingly roping in their militaries.

The present studies examined the hypothesis that loss of personal significance fuels extremism via the need for cognitive closure. Situations of significance loss-those that make one feel ashamed, humiliated, or demeaned-are inconsistent with the desire for a positive self-image, and instill a sense of uncertainty about the self. Consequently, indi...

With a radical Islamist jihadist ideology, sleeper cells, lone wolves and skillful exploitation of modern technology, the terrorist threat in 2018 will remain challenging despite the Islamic State’s (IS) defeats in Iraq and Syria last year. Jihadist movements, principally IS and al-Qaeda, have localized to exploit indigenous grievances, recruit as...

Los presentes estudios examinaron la hipótesis de que la pérdida de importancia personal favorecen el extremismo a través del necesidad de cierre cognitivo. Situaciones de pérdida de significado de una persona (aquellas que la hacen sentirse avergonzada, humillada o degradada), son inconsistentes con el deseo de una autoimagen positiva e infunden u...

The global terrorism threat has become more decentralised, unpredictable, hard-to-detect and resilient with regenerative capacities. The global jihadist movements, principally the so called Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda, have glocalised to exploit indigenous grievances, recruit aspiring jihadists and fight for local and global causes. Overall, bo...

Terrorism – the application of politically-motivated violence to resist or influence the policies of governing regimes – has been a spectre of organised governments for millennia. Almost by definition, terrorism is ‘asymmetrical’: the state is always more powerful than the antagonists seeking to undermine it. In employing a technique of changing vi...

In anticipation of their return to their home countries and regions, IS fighters in Syria and Iraq are calling for global support to strengthen IS bridgeheads in their own regions. For the first time, a Singaporean features in IS propaganda.

With its battle space in Iraq and Syria shrinking, the Islamic State (IS) is developing a grand strategy of global expansion. As part of that strategy, IS’s al-Hayat media center released a propaganda video on Sept. 23 that featured Singaporean Megat Shahdan Abdul Samad urging Muslims to immigrate to East Asia for jihad. The three-minute video, th...

In Islamic State’s (IS) global ambition to expand beyond its heartland of Iraq and Syria, the most notable achievement during Ramadan in 2017 has been the siege of the Islamic City of Marawi on May 23, 2017. Local groups with foreign fighters and directions from IS-central fought with Philippine security personnel, displacing 330,000 people from Ma...

There are uncanny similarities between Islamic State’s siege of the Iraqi city of Mosul – which finally ended on Monday – and the southern Philippine city of Marawi, where government forces have been battling for more than six weeks to break an occupation by IS-backed fighters. In fact IS’s East Asia Division, based in the Philippines, tried to re...

With the growth of extremism in Southeast Asia, governments and their partners must develop capabilities not only to fight but rehabilitate suspected terrorists in custody. The terror threat is becoming acute in the maritime region of Southeast Asia – composed of Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia – where half a billion peo...

The most serious militant action by the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group during its so called, Ramadan Jihad‟ was the siege of Marawi, the capital city of Lanao del Sur province in the Southern Philippine island of Mindanao. On 23 May, Marawi became the first city outside the Middle East and North Africa to fall to IS, after the „Islamic State La...

The emerging generation of Islamic State-centric (IS) threat groups seeks to capture, hold and control territory. Unlike al-Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) that operated discretely and staged intermittent attacks, IS seeks territorial conquest and governance. The siege of Marawi on May 23 demonstrates that IS no longer...

After a month of intense close-quarters combat, entrenched Islamic State (IS) fighters and Philippines government forces are still fighting for control of Marawi, capital of Lanao Del Sur Province in the country’s south. The battlefield resembles Aleppo, Mosul, Raqqa and other cities in Iraq and Syria. By the time the Philippine government recaptu...

Over the past two weeks, the East Asia division of the so-called Islamic State (IS) has held parts of the southern Philippine city of Marawi. Different IS-linked groups came together to meticulously plan the city’s siege. The division wanted territorial control to win recognition from IS leaders in the Middle East. The Philippines government has y...

The pre-eminent national security challenge to Singapore is from terrorism and its precursor ideological extremism. With increased globalization, securing Singapore from transnational and indigenous threats is a growing national security challenge. Both the Singapore government and its inhabitants – citizens and residents – are at increasing risk f...

Terrorism and religious extremism are interlinked and they present a growing threat to social stability around the globe. The security challenges presented by the pre-eminence of Al Qaeda (AQ), the so-called Islamic State (IS), and other country-focused groups such as the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban and the Philippines Abu Sayyaf Group among...

Muhammad Wanndy Bin Mohamed Jedi, Malaysia’s most wanted member of Islamic State, was a prolific recruiter for the group whose short life of upheaval ended last month in a drone strike in Syria. When he was killed near the IS stronghold of Raqqa on April 29, the 26-year-old had built up a network of surrogates back home in Malaysia, and was linked...

The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for bomb blasts that killed two and injured six in the Quiapo district of Manila on May 6, a little more than a week after a similar attack injured 13 people on the eve of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in the Philippine capital. The Philippines downplayed the incidents and p...

The Islamic State’s (IS) East Asia Division (Sharq Asia) in the Philippines is a significant node of the group’s presence in Southeast Asia. Keeping in view the recent setbacks IS has suffered in the Levant, its East Asia Division, among others, remains a viable fallback option for the terror group. Given, the recent spate of IS-claimed high-profil...

On April 11, Philippine security forces disrupted attacks mounted by the East Asia Division of Islamic State (IS) in Bohol in the Central Philippines. Four militants were killed, including Muammar Askali – a college-educated English speaker who had acted as a spokesman for the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in high-profile hostage negotiations. Askali, als...

Deradicalization of terrorists constitutes a critical component of the global “war on terror.” Unfortunately, little is known about deradicalization programs, and evidence for their effectiveness is derived solely from expert impressions and potentially flawed recidivism rates. We present the first empirical assessment of one such program: the Sri...

The Islamic State (IS) is eclipsing the traditional influence of al-Qaeda in the Southeast Asian threat landscape. With the waning influence of al-Qaeda, the most potent threat to Southeast Asia comes from radicalised and militarised Muslims and groups associated with IS. The region’s largest and most violent group, Jemmah Asharut Tawheed (JAT), an...

The seriousness of the terrorist threat to Singapore is evidenced by the continuing arrests of Singaporeans involved in terrorism-related activities, Indonesians on transit to Syria, and radicalized Bangladeshi workers. These supporters and sympathizers of the so-called Islamic State (IS) pose an enduring threat to Singapore's stability and securit...

Islamic State (IS) has been expanding steadfastly beyond its heartland of Iraq and Syria since the declaration of a “caliphate” on June 29, 2014. Over half of the 50,000 foreign fighters drawn to Iraq and Syria have since perished. But the IS narrative has spread and its subculture has been seeded worldwide. Today, the threat in South and Southeas...

Contrary to earlier assessment, the so-called Islamic State (IS) can be defeated. IS support can be contained, its membership can be isolated, and its leadership can be eliminated with the right resources.

JANUARY 9 ― Four significant developments will characterise the global threat landscape this year. First, it is likely that the so-called Islamic State (IS) will transform from a caliphate-building entity into a global terrorist movement. In a manner similar to Al Qaeda, which had dispersed from its Afghanistan-Pakistan core in 2001-2002 to conflic...

Four significant developments will characterise the global threat landscape in 2017. First, it is likely that the so-called Islamic State (IS) will transform from a caliphate-building entity into a global terrorist movement. In a manner similar to Al Qaeda (AQ) that had dispersed from its Afghanistan-Pakistan core in 2001-2002 to conflict zones wor...

The world is facing an acute and a growing threat from the rise of the Islamic State (IS). The foreign fighter threat is unprecedented in terms of numbers. Despite efforts by the international community, military, diplomatic, political, economic and informational strategies have failed to curb the threat of IS. While an effective military response...

In 2017, the so-called Islamic State (IS) will decentralise posing a pre-eminent terrorist threat. To deter the international community against continued intervention in its heartland IS will stage attacks worldwide.

The apocalyptic vision of Muslim terrorists and extremists has come true with the victory of Donald Trump as the next US president. They jubilantly hail this as the "end of America!"

Since June 2014, eliminating the global threat of Daesh has been a concern throughout the world. As Daesh continues to expand its presence to more countries and claims responsibility for an increased number of attacks, the need for a shared counter-extremism strategy that includes significant internal and international cooperation, coupled with con...

The terrorist attack in Jakarta on January 14, 2016, that killed eight people is just the beginning—part of the Islamic State’s (IS) strategy to create chaos and expand into Southeast Asia, complementing its goal of global expansion. Although the arrests in the lead-up to Christmas—including the arrest of Arif Hidayatullah (alias Abu Muzab) and his...

The Handbook of Terrorism in the Asia–Pacific provides a historical overview of terrorism in the Asia–Pacific, the evolution of threat, and the present threat faced by countries with the rise of the Islamic State (IS). This is a concise and readable handbook which examines the origins of the current wave of terrorism across countries in Southeast A...

This special issue of our Panorama analyses recent developments concerning Daesh extremism and their implications on societies in Asia and Europe. The papers share and discuss current and possible future threats, identify the target groups vulnerable to extreme militant ideology and examine the various recruitment channels. The counter-measures and...

Recent high-profile terrorist attacks have led to attempts by social scientists to investigate the processes behind radicalization. Prisons have been identified as possible breeding grounds for radical extremism. However, the evidence so far is based almost solely on case studies. The research provides one of the first quantitative assessments of p...

We describe a novel hybrid method of content analysis that combines the speed of computerized text analysis with the contextual sensitivity of human raters, and apply it to speeches that were given by major leaders of Al-Qaeda (AQ)—both in its “core” Afghanistan/Pakistan region and its affiliate group in Iraq. The proposed “Ideology Extraction usin...

After 30 years of fighting, the Sri Lankan government militarily defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in May 2009. One of the world’s most ruthless terrorist and guerrilla groups, the game changer in the defeat of the LTTE was the destruction of the LTTE brown and blue water capabilities. The blue water fleet transported arms, ammun...

The al Qaeda-centric terrorist landscape is eclipsed by an Islamic State (IS)-centric threat landscape. Today, an al Qaeda-IS hybrid influences and shapes the global threat landscape of political violence. With three dozen threat groups in Asia, Africa and the Middle East expressing support to the Caliphate and pledging allegiance to self-styled Ca...

Among the defining characteristics of the 21st century's first decade has been the specter of terrorism that threatens world stability and security. Although the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, as well as those in Bali (2002), Madrid (2004), and London (2005) attracted major attention, the problem of terrorism and political viol...

With the rise of religiously motivated violence and terrorism, governments around the world need to develop their religious and ideological capabilities in parallel with strengthening their law enforcement, military and intelligence capabilities. Terrorist Rehabilitation: A New Frontier in Counter-terrorism aims to provide an understanding of the i...

Today, transnational and national Muslim insurgent and terrorist groups pose the greatest global threat. The genesis of the current wave of terrorism goes back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan on Christmas Day 1979. To fight the Soviets, the Pakistani, Saudi, U.S. and British intelligence services collaborated with Muslim youth who gathered in...

Following the Western drawdown in Afghanistan, the global and regional security landscapes will change dramatically. Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and their allies, who are still posing a threat to the U.S.-led coalition, are poised to return to Afghanistan. Further, the mujahidin in the tribal areas of Pakistan may once again draw the support of p...

Three to four dozen international and local organizations, up to one hundred thousand individuals, and millions of supporters are part of the phenomenon of Global Jihad. The Global Jihad Movement endeavors to name and differentiate these organizations and to explain their infrastructure, operational capabilities, and activities. It also analyzes th...

In Case Study: Singapore Prevention Requires Participation: The Need For State-Society Partnerships, Rohan Gunaratna is almost an ambassador with local inert faith groups: The fight against terrorism and extremism can be won. Its success depends not only on government capabilities but community commitment to defeat terror and extremist ideas. Stron...

Following the Western drawdown in Afghanistan, the global and regional security landscapes will change dramatically. Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, and their allies, who are still posing a threat to the U.S.-led coalition, are poised to return to Afghanistan. Further, the mujahidin in the tribal areas of Pakistan may once again draw the support of p...

With the rise of religiously motivated violence and terrorism, governments around the world need to develop their religious and ideological capabilities in parallel with strengthening their law enforcement, military and intelligence capabilities. Terrorist Rehabilitation: A New Frontier in Counter-terrorism aims to provide an understanding of the i...

Wars from Within brings together an international and multidisciplinary group of academics and practitioner-researchers specializing in the study of insurgent movements in order to provide a deeper understanding of the violent manifestations of insurgencies in different parts of the world. In doing so, the book adopts both a functional and regional...

We present a model of radicalization and deradicalization based on the notion that the quest for personal significance constitutes a major motivational force that may push individuals toward violent extremism. Radicalization is defined as the process of supporting or engaging in activities deemed (by others) as in violation of important social norm...

The threat of international and national terrorism is projected to grow in 2014. With half of the countries in the world suffering from political violence and ideological extremism, terrorism will remain the tierone national security threat to the stability of most countries in 2014.