Roger Buehler

Roger Buehler
Wilfrid Laurier University | WLU · Department of Psychology

About

41
Publications
37,390
Reads
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3,141
Citations
Additional affiliations
July 1996 - present
Wilfrid Laurier University
August 1991 - July 1996
Simon Fraser University

Publications

Publications (41)
Article
Full-text available
People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy – known as backward planning – that may counteract this optimistic bias. Backward planning involves starting a plan at the end goal and then working through required steps in reverse-chronological order, and is commonly advocated by practitioners as a tool...
Article
Full-text available
The present research examines the prevalence of predictions in daily life. Specifically we examine whether spending predictions for specific purchases occur spontaneously in life outside of a laboratory setting. Across community samples and student samples, overall self-report and diary reports, three studies suggest that people make spending predi...
Article
Full-text available
People often underestimate their future personal spending. Across four studies we examined an “unpacking” intervention to reduce this bias. Participants predicted spending for an upcoming week (Study 1), a weekend (Study 2a), a vacation (Study 2b), and for weeks versus self-nominated events (Study 3), and subsequently reported actual spending. In e...
Article
Full-text available
When people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands, that may interfere with t...
Article
Personal spending predictions are sometimes optimistically biased because predictors focus on their current savings goals. The present studies explored the role of savings goals in prediction by comparing spending predictions for time periods and discrete events. Contemplating a concrete event may elicit specific goals that compete with a focus on...
Article
We examined the role of subjective temporal distance in people's future self-predictions. Consistent with temporal self-appraisal theory, we hypothesized that people would be motivated to evaluate future selves more favorably when they felt closer in time, because subjectively close future selves have more direct implications for current identity t...
Article
People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the planning fallacy model of optimistic time predictions, this underestimation occurs because people focus on developing a specific plan for the current task and neglect the implications of past failures to meet similar deadlines. We extend the classic planning...
Article
Self predictions are often optimistically biased, even for recurrent events. People could generate more realistic predictions by using information about past experiences, however they tend to disregard this cognitive approach. Drawing on Construal Level Theory, we propose that increases in construal level facilitate the use of information from past...
Article
This research program explored how the positivity of people's memories of their past personal attributes is influenced by their desire to cope with negative mood states. The studies tested the hypothesis that beliefs and motives regarding the stability of personality will determine whether people idealize or derogate their earlier attributes in an...
Article
Two studies demonstrated that leading individuals to mentally reframe the time required for an exercise program (e.g., 2 hr per week) in terms of the equivalent daily amount (e.g., 17 min per day) reduced the perceived time commitment and increased people's willingness to try the program. Study 2 also identified a cognitive mechanism that mediated...
Article
Full-text available
We review our research on predictions in two different domains: (a) people's estimates of how long they will take to complete various academic and everyday tasks and (b) forecasts by individuals in dating relationships of the future course of their romantic association. Our research indicates that people underestimate their completion times. Furthe...
Article
The planning fallacy refers to a prediction phenomenon, all too familiar to many, wherein people underestimate the time it will take to complete a future task, despite knowledge that previous tasks have generally taken longer than planned. In this chapter, we review theory and research on the planning fallacy, with an emphasis on a programmatic ser...
Article
In everyday life people estimate completion times for projects in the near and distant future. How might the temporal proximity of a project influence prediction? Given that closer events elicit more concrete construals, we proposed that temporal proximity could enhance two kinds of concrete cognitions pertinent to task completion predictions: step...
Article
People typically predict they will finish projects earlier than they do. Whereas previous research has examined the determinants of this prediction bias, the present research explored potential consequences for behavior. In particular, we examined whether and when task completion predictions influence actual completion times. In four experiments we...
Article
The authors extend research and theory on self prediction into the realm of personal financial behavior. Four studies examined people's ability to predict their future personal spending and the findings supported the two main hypotheses. First, participants tended to underestimate their future spending. They predicted spending substantially less mo...
Article
The subjective temporal distance of a past event-how close or far away it feels-is influenced by numerous factors apart from actual time. The current studies extend research on subjective distance by exploring the experience of remembering autobiographical events as part of a stream of related events. The temporal direction in which events are reca...
Chapter
The Social Psychological Importance of Personal Pasts and FuturesGenerating Memories and ForecastsAssessing the Accuracy of ForecastsForecasting Future FeelingsCollective Remembering and ForecastingConclusions
Article
Imagining future success can sometimes enhance people's motivation to achieve it. This article examines a phenomenological aspect of positive mental imagery--the visual perspective adopted--that may moderate its motivational impact. The authors hypothesize that people feel more motivated to succeed on a future task when they visualize its successfu...
Article
This article examines the role of motivational factors in affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was that people predict positive emotional reactions to future events when they are motivated to enhance their current feelings. Three experiments manipulated participants' moods (negative vs. neutral) and orientation toward their moods (reflecti...
Article
A classic study conducted by Ross, Lepper, and Hubbard (1975) revealed a perseverance effect wherein people who received positive performance feedback on an alleged social perceptiveness test reported more favorable self-perceptions in this domain than those who received negative feedback despite the fact that they had received standard outcome deb...
Article
Comparative theory testing is a useful method for assessing the value of a new theoretical account such as the memory bias account of optimistic time predictions. However, such comparisons can be misleading when they do not carefully consider the domain limitations of the respective theories. M. M. Roy, N. J. S. Christenfeld, and C. R. M. McKenzie...
Article
The impact bias in affective forecasting-a tendency to overestimate the emotional consequences of future events-may not be a universal phenomenon. This prediction bias stems from a cognitive process known as focalism, whereby predictors focus attention narrowly on the upcoming target event. Three studies supported the hypothesis that East Asians, w...
Article
Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in time prediction. The present studies extend research on task completion forecasts to examine tasks performed collaboratively by groups, and predictions generated through group discussion. Participants predicted—individually and collaboratively—when they...
Article
Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effect...
Article
In five studies, university students predicted their affective reactions to a wide variety of positive and negative future events. In Studies 1 to 3, participants also reported the affective reactions they experienced when the target event occurred. As hypothesized, they tended to anticipate more intense reactions than they actually experienced. In...
Article
Three experiments examined the hypothesis that the assimilation effect in people's responses to social comparisons (i.e., more pleasant responses to comparisons with successful others than to comparisons with unsuccessful others) on highly important dimensions would be strongest when people share an identity relationship with the target of comparis...
Article
Full-text available
Task completion plans normally resemble best-case scenarios and yield overly optimistic predictions of completion times. The authors induced participants to generate more pessimistic scenarios and examined completion predictions. Participants described a pessimistic scenario of task completion either alone or with an optimistic scenario. Pessimisti...
Article
Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases....
Article
Five studies examined how self-focused attention affects the impact of negative moods on autobiographical memory. It was proposed that self-focused attention to moods may increase the likelihood of both mood-congruent recall and mood-incongruent recall and that the type of recall effect that occurs will depend on the manner in which people focus on...
Article
Full-text available
We examined criteria that rememberers and neutral audiences use to validate conflicting memories. In Experiment 1, rememberers described an incident that they recalled differently from someone else from their own and the other person's perspective. Rememberers and audiences then evaluated the accuracy of statements in both accounts, explained their...
Article
People sometimes cope with negative moods by retrieving positive memories, thus exhibiting a mood-incongruency effect. It was proposed that this type of motivated recall involves a 2-stage process: Individuals must first openly acknowledge their negative moods before they will adopt a recall strategy to alleviate their distress. Individual differe...
Article
Full-text available
The authors explore the well-documented tendency for people to predict that they will finish tasks earlier than they actually do. Whereas previous research has tied this optimistic bias to the operation of specific cognitive processes, the present studies examine the interplay between motivation and cognition. Two studies supported the hypothesis t...
Article
Individuals who perform well within an unsuccessful group have more favorable reactions than equally capable individuals who perform poorly within a successful group. This frog-pond effect appears to occur because people focus on their relative performance standing within their group rather than on their group's overall performance level. It was h...
Article
Full-text available
Three studies investigated change-of-meaning processes following decisions to conform or dissent. Study 1 demonstrated that conformity decisions relative to a group standard, but not agreement decisions relative to a purely informational standard, caused changes in Ss' construal of a stimulus story. Studies 2 and 3 extended these findings to a real...
Article
Three studies investigated change-of-meaning processes following decisions to conform or dissent. Study 1 demonstrated that conformity decisions relative to a group standard, but not agreement decisions relative to a purely informational standard, caused changes in Ss' construal of a stimulus story. Studies 2 and 3 extended these findings to a real...
Article
Full-text available
Tested 3 hypotheses concerning people's predictions of task completion times: (1) people underestimate their own but not others' completion times, (2) people focus on plan-based scenarios rather than on relevant past experiences while generating their predictions, and (3) people's attributions diminish the relevance of past experiences. Five studie...
Chapter
If there is one topic that binds the various subdisciplines of psychology together, it is memory. The social psychologist examining attitudes or interpersonal conflict, the cognitive psychologist studying learning or decision making, the developmental psychologist researching the growth of cognitive or social capacities, the clinical psychologist i...
Book
Full-text available
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64018/1/Autobiographical_memory.pdf
Article
Full-text available
Develops 3 hypotheses to explain the role of construal processes in conformity behavior. According to the preconformity change of meaning hypothesis, social influence leads to changes in situational construal that precede and mediate conformity behavior; according to the postconformity change of meaning hypothesis, construal change follows and just...
Article
It was hypothesized that when it is difficult for people to remember what they said previously, they may use their sense of familiarity with a statement to determine whether it is one they expressed. In 3 experiments, Ss were asked to state whether they had witnessed certain objects in a previous slide presentation; they responded aloud with experi...
Article
Full-text available
The authors' research focuses on the mechanisms by which people segregate their general theories about their predictions (i.e., that they are usually unrealistic) from their specific expectations for an upcoming task. This chapter begins by documenting the ubiquity of optimistic predictions in everyday tasks. Topics discussed in this chapter includ...

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