Robert Teh

We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of digitalization on global trade patterns. Five trends are modelled: (i) adoption of artificial intelligence which raises productivity growth; (ii) digitalization reducing trade costs, (iii) the shift to online sales (e-commerce), (iv) t...

Advances in information and communication technology (ICT) have reduced trade costs providing enterprises greater opportunity to access international markets. Using the World Bank's enterprise survey data covering more than 180 000 enterprises from 154 countries, we examine whether online presence contributes to inclusiveness by helping firms that...

We analyze whether preferential trade agreements (PTAs) affect the incidence and pattern of antidumping (AD) filings. We find PTA membership results in a 29 percent (15 percent) decrease in the incidence of intra-PTA AD actions (measures). We then exploit variation in the content of PTAs and find the reduction is due to PTAs with explicit AD rules....

p>This paper examines the way trade and other economic interactions between countries are modelled in the construction of baseline projections with recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Simulations are conducted on the size of trade elasticities, the way the trade balance is modelled (macroeconomic closure), trade growth, a...

The WTO Global Trade Model is employed to project the medium-run economic effects of a global trade conflict. The trade conflict scenario is based on recent estimates in the literature of the difference between cooperative and non-cooperative tariffs. The study provides three main insights. First, the projected macroeconomic effects in the medium r...

Two far-reaching developments have increased the trade opportunities for SMEs in developing countries. Firstly, the rise of the internet and advances in ICT have reduced trade-related information and communication costs. Secondly, the international fragmentation of production has increased the opportunities for SMEs to specialize in narrow activiti...

This paper reviews the different types of provisions explicitly addressing electronic commerce (e-commerce) in regional trade agreements (RTAs). The analysis covers the 275 RTAs currently in force and notified to the WTO as of May 2017. The analysis shows that e-commerce provisions have become increasingly more detailed but remain highly heterogene...

The unbundling of trade across countries offers unique opportunities for SMEs to integrate into global trade notably through their involvement in supply chains. With supply chains expanding into new regions of the world, the challenge for SMEs to obtain access to finance remains an important one. In many developing and emerging market economies, th...

We estimate the effects of trade facilitation on export diversification, as measured by two extensive margins: the number of products exported by destination and the number of export destinations served by product. To address causality we use only exports of new products, or exports to new destinations. We find a positive impact of trade facilitati...

We estimate the effects of trade facilitation on the extensive margins of trade. Using OECD Trade Facilitation Indicators (which closely reect the Trade Facilitation Agreement negotiated at the Bali WTO Ministerial Conference of December 2013), we show that trade facilitation in a given exporting country is positively correlated with the number of...

The global financial crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis in Europe demonstrated that the relationship between law and economics in the design of the monetary system must be revisited. International monetary affairs are usually conducted via domestic monetary policies which are formulated by independent central banks and informed mainly by e...

Rising current account and merchandise trade imbalances marked the years before the global financial and economic crisis. These imbalances either contributed to or precipitated the crisis and to the extent that they create systemic risks, it is desirable that they be reduced. There are many factors related to macroeconomic, structural, exchange rat...

We analyze whether preferential trade agreements (PTAs) affect the incidence and pattern of antidumping (AD) filings. We estimate AD provisions in PTAs have decreased the incidence of intra-PTA AD cases by 33-55% and have increased the number of AD actions against non-PTA members by 10-30%. The net effect of PTA rules on total AD filings is small....

Introduction This chapter examines contingent protection provisions in seventy-four regional trade agreements (RTAs). Before we discuss any motivation or results, we will make two comments on our terminology. First, we use the term “regional trade agreements” in a broad sense. For purposes of this chapter we use the term to refer to customs unions...

In recent years, quantitative analysis of the effects of policies on economic outcomes has grown sharply. These exercises in quantification have been made possible by advances in theory and analytical techniques, and no less importantly, by the dramatically increased computational and data processing power of computers. This paper focuses on two cl...

The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) over the past two decades has highlighted the need to look closely at the relationships between regional and WTO rules or disciplines. A major obstacle to advancing understanding of RTAs is the absence of detailed information about their contents. This has limited the debate between those who vi...

Introduction This paper maps and examines competition-related provisions in seventy-four regional trade agreements (RTAs). The template used for the mapping is based on previous work done to map competition-related provisions in RTAs and on recent thoughtful critiques of those approaches. The mapping undertaken in this paper applies to all competit...

This paper maps the provisions on anti-dumping, countervailing duties and safeguards in seventy-four regional trade agreements. The key concern of the paper is that the elastic and selective nature of trade remedies may lead to more discrimination, with reduced trade remedy actions against RTA partners, but a greater frequency of actions against no...

This paper examines the impact of major disasters on trade flows using a gravity model(170 countries, 1962-2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0,2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, the impact of catastrophes depends on the democracy level and size o...

In this paper we examine the impact of major disasters on international trade flows using a gravity model. Our panel data consists of more than 170 countries for the years 1962-2004 yielding approximately 300,000 observations. We find that the driving forces determining the impact of such events are the democracy level and, to a lesser extent, the...

The proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) over the past two decades has highlighted the need to look closely at the potential conflicts between regional and WTO rules or disciplines. A major obstacle to advancing understanding of RTAs is the absence of detailed information about their contents. This has limited the debate between those...

The Department of Health formulates and implements health care financing strategies. To aid the agency, this paper provides baseline figures on the parameters of the entire health care environment. In particular, the following parameters in the health sectors are studied: the regulatory institutions, the legal mandates of these institutions, the se...

The formal credit market has rationed out small-scale farmers due to asymmetry of information. Hence, interlinking of markets is observed. In this arrangement, traders become lenders to farmers due to informational advantages acquired through the years of transactions with each other. This research reports the two-phase survey results in the provin...

The agrarian reform program represents an important innovation that will alter the landscape of the rural sector. While the focus of literature on interlinked markets has been on tenancy cum credit contracts, the literature on different types of interlinked contracts has been wanting. This review attempts to provide the background for a more detail...

Using a significantly larger panel of countries than previous studies, we find strong confirmation that macroeconomic factors (real GDP growth and changes in the real effective exchange rate) affect the frequency of anti-dumping investigations. A reduction in real GDP growth or a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate leads to increased u...