Rifat Atun

Harvard University | Harvard · Harvard School of Public Health

Turkey has successfully introduced health system changes and provided its citizens with the right to health to achieve universal health coverage, which helped to address inequities in financing, health service access, and health outcomes. We trace the trajectory of health system reforms in Turkey, with a particular emphasis on 2003-13, which coinci...

In almost all countries, development of health systems that are responsive to the challenge of prevention and treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a priority. NCDs consist of a vast group of conditions, but in terms of premature mortality, emphasis has been on cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases—di...

Development assistance for health has increased every year between 2000 and 2010, particularly for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, to reach US$26·66 billion in 2010. The continued global economic crisis means that increased external financing from traditional donors is unlikely in the near term. Hence, new funding has to be sought from innovat...

Background To effectively combat the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) created a National Rapid Response to Syphilis with actions aimed at bolstering epidemiological surveillance of acquired, congenital syphilis, and syphilis during pregnancy complemented with communication activities to raise population awareness...

Background The global burden of diabetes is rising rapidly, yet there is little evidence on individual-level diabetes prevention activities undertaken by health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we describe the population at high risk of developing diabetes, estimate diabetes prevention activities, and explore sociodem...

Cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRF), in particular diabetes and hypertension, are chronic conditions which carry a substantial disease burden in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Unlike HIV, they were neglected in the Millenium Development Goals along with the health services required to manage them. To inform the level of health service re...

Background: Testing for the risk factors of cardiovascular disease, which include hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia, is important for timely and effective risk management. Yet few studies have quantified and analysed testing of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with respect to sociodemogr...

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective:...

BACKGROUND Conversational agents (CAs), or chatbots, are computer programs that simulate conversations with humans. The use of CAs in healthcare settings is recent and rapidly increasing, which often translates to poor reporting of the CA development and evaluation processes, and unreliable research findings. We developed and published a conceptual...

Background Conversational agents (CAs), or chatbots, are computer programs that simulate conversations with humans. The use of CAs in health care settings is recent and rapidly increasing, which often translates to poor reporting of the CA development and evaluation processes and unreliable research findings. We developed and published a conceptual...

Background Cancer is a leading cause of disease burden globally, with more than 19·3 million cases and 10 million deaths recorded in 2020. Research is crucial to understanding the determinants of cancer and the effects of interventions, and to improving outcomes. We aimed to analyse global patterns of public and philanthropic investment in cancer r...

Objective The inverse relationships between chronic disease multimorbidity and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) have been well-documented in the literature. However, the mechanism underlying this relationship remains largely unknown. This is the first study to look into the potential role of functional limitation as a mediator in the relation...

Despite an evolving need to provide surgical health care globally, few health systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), can sufficiently provide such care. The vast majority of the world's people-an estimated 5 billion-are unable to access safe and affordable surgical health care when they need it. This is a significa...

The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. We used the empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model...

Maternal mortality is a major global health challenge. Although progress has been made globally in reducing maternal deaths, measurement remains challenging given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. We developed the Global Maternal Health microsimulation model for women in 200 countries and territories, accounting for in...

The Global Diabetes Compact is a WHO-driven initiative uniting stakeholders around goals of reducing diabetes risk and ensuring that people with diabetes have equitable access to comprehensive, affordable care and prevention. In this report we describe the development and scientific basis for key health metrics, coverage, and treatment targets acco...

Aims: To evaluate the effectiveness of the Enhanced Primary Healthcare (EnPHC) interventions on process of care and intermediate clinical outcomes among type 2 diabetes patients. Methods: This was a quasi-experimental controlled study conducted in 20 intervention and 20 control public primary care clinics in Malaysia from November 2016 to June 2...

BACKGROUND Mental disorders cause substantial health-related burden worldwide. Mobile health (mHealth) interventions are increasingly used for the promotion of mental health and well-being, as they have the potential to improve access to treatment and reduce associated costs. Behaviour change is an important feature of interventions aimed at improv...

Background: Mental disorders cause substantial health-related burden worldwide. Mobile health interventions are increasingly being used to promote mental health and well-being, as they could improve access to treatment and reduce associated costs. Behavior change is an important feature of interventions aimed at improving mental health and well-be...

Background Many European Health Systems are implementing or increasing levels of cost-sharing for medicine in response to the growing constrains on public spending on health despite their negative impact on population health due to delay in seeking care. Objective This study aims to examine the relationships between multimorbidity (two or more coe...

Background: Economic losses due to herpes simplex infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unknown. We estimated economic and quality-of-life losses due to genital herpes in 2019, in 90 LMICs, and from 2020 to 2030 in 45 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa. We additionally estimated economic losses due to huma...

This study analyzes online news disseminated throughout the pre-, during-, and post-intervention periods of the “Syphilis No!” Project, which was developed in Brazil between November 2018 and March 2019. We investigated the influence of sentiment aspects of news to explore their possible relationships with syphilis testing data in response to the s...

Introduction Around 18.7 million of the 537 million people with diabetes worldwide live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), where there is also an increase in the number of children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with type 1 diabetes (T1D). There are substantial gaps in data in the current understanding of the epidemiologica...

Introduction: Using nationally representative survey data from China and India, this study examined (1) the distribution and patterns of multimorbidity in relation to socioeconomic status and (2) association between multimorbidity and out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) for medicines by socioeconomic groups. Methods: Secondary data analysis of adul...

Background Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estim...

Background Historically, the international development community has often held the view that those living in extreme poverty (at less than $1.90/day) are likely to have a low prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors due to calorie scarcity, a largely plant-based diet, and physical labor. Evidence on CVD risk factor prevalence among...

Background: Conversational agents (CAs), also known as chatbots, are computer programs that simulate human conversations by using predetermined rule-based responses or artificial intelligence algorithms. They are increasingly used in health care, particularly via smartphones. There is, at present, no conceptual framework guiding the development of...

Background: Conversational agents (CAs) are increasingly used in health care to deliver behavior change interventions. Their evaluation often includes categorizing the behavior change techniques (BCTs) using a classification system of which the BCT Taxonomy v1 (BCTTv1) is one of the most common. Previous studies have presented descriptive summaries...

Background Alcohol is a leading risk factor for over 200 conditions and an important contributor to socioeconomic health inequalities. However, little is known about the associations between individuals’ socioeconomic circumstances and alcohol consumption, especially heavy episodic drinking (HED; ≥5 drinks on one occasion) in low-income or middle-i...

Objectives To determine the prevalence and frequency of using any tobacco product and each of a detailed set of tobacco products, how tobacco use and use frequency vary across countries, world regions, and World Bank country income groups, and the socioeconomic and demographic gradients of tobacco use and use frequency within countries. Design Sec...

Background This study aims to examine (1) province-level variations in the levels of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and behavioral risk for CVDs, (2) province-level variations in the management of cascade of care for hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, and (3) the association of province-level economic development and individual factors w...

There is a dearth of evidence on the epidemiology of multimorbidity in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of multimorbidity in India and its variation among states and population groups. We analyzed data from a nationally representative household survey conducted in 2015–2016 among individuals aged 15 to...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have affected all countries. With a scarcity of COVID-19 vaccines there has been a need to prioritize populations, but assessing relative needs has been challenging. The COVAX Facility allocates vaccines to cover 20% of each national population, followed by a ne...

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) may negatively impact surgery patients through reducing the efficacy of treatment of surgical site infections, also known as the “primary effects” of AMR. Previous estimates of the burden of AMR have largely ignored the potential “secondary effects,” such as changes in surgical care pathways due to AMR, such as differ...

This study aimed to determine levels of health insurance coverage in low- and middle-income countries and how coverage varies by people's sociodemographic characteristics. We conducted a population size-weighted, one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis of health insurance coverage, using a population-based sample of 2,035,401 participan...

Background Effective equity-focused health policy for hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires an understanding of the condition’s current socioeconomic gradients and how these are likely to change in the future as countries develop economically. Objectives This cross-sectional study aimed to determine how hypertension pre...

Climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to population health and health systems’ resilience, with increasing fluctuations in extreme temperatures through pressures on hospital capacity. While earlier studies have estimated morbidity attributable to hot or cold weather across cities, we provide the first large-scale, population-wide assessme...

OBJECTIVE Diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are limited data on the performance of health systems in delivering equitable and effective care to rural populations. We therefore assessed rural-urban differences in diabetes care and control in LMICs. RESEARCH DESIGN AND MET...

Data resource basics Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally.¹ In recent decades, a rising prevalence of major CVD risk factors including diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia has been observed in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where CVD was not previously considered a major health pr...

Background: Population-based cancer survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of health systems in managing cancer. Data from population-based cancer registries are essential for producing reliable and robust cancer survival estimates. Georgia established a national population-based cancer registry on 1 January 2015. This is the first analysis...

The report, Towards a Strategy for Improving Surgical Healthcare Worldwide, was developed under the guidance of Dr Geoff Ibbotson, Executive Director of the Global Surgery Foundation and Senior Health Advisor at the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR). The ideas, insights and frameworks in the report are drawn from several d...

BACKGROUND Conversational agents (CAs) are increasingly used in healthcare to deliver behavior change interventions. Their evaluation often includes categorizing the behavior change techniques (BCTs), using a classification system of which the BCT Taxonomy V1 is one of the most common. Previous studies have presented descriptive summaries of behavi...

The study, Strategic Public-Private Partnerships to Transform Cardiovascular Health, was developed under the guidance of Professor Rifat Atun, Professor of Global Health Systems at Harvard University and Director of the Health Systems Innovation Lab and implemented by a team consisting of Dr Ché L. Reddy, Associate Director Health Systems Innovatio...

The study, The State of Cardiovascular Disease in G20+ Countries, was developed under the guidance of Professor Rifat Atun, Professor of Global Health Systems at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard University and Director of the Health Systems Innovation Lab and Francesca Colombo, Head of the Health Division at the Organization...

Background Assessing relative needs for COVID-19 vaccines across countries has been challenging. The objective of this study was to identify the most important factors for assessing countries’ needs for vaccines, and to weight each, generating a scoring tool for prioritising countries. Methods The study was conducted between March and November 202...

BACKGROUND Conversational agents (CAs), also known as chatbots are computer programs that simulate human conversations using predetermined rule-based responses or employing artificial intelligent algorithms. They are increasingly used in healthcare, particularly via smartphones. There is, at present no conceptual framework guiding the development o...

Coordinating collective work and communicating a shared understanding of tasks is necessary to accomplishing organizational goals. Stigma could exacerbate coordination challenges between public and private organizations by further widening differences in goals and incentives among employees. Using relational coordination theory, we explore how stig...

Background To fight against the rising incidence of syphilis, the Brazilian Ministry of Health (MoH) launched the “Syphilis No!” Project (SNP), with specific resources funded by a parliamentary amendment. Then, in 2018, a national rapid response started to be implemented on the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS, Sistema Único de Saúde) in two st...

Background In the prevention of cardiovascular disease, a WHO target is that at least 50% of eligible people use statins. Robust evidence is needed to monitor progress towards this target in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where most cardiovascular disease deaths occur. The objectives of this study were to benchmark statin use in LM...

Nonpharmaceutical interventions such as stay-at-home orders continue to be the main policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in countries with limited or slow vaccine rollout. Often, nonpharmaceutical interventions are managed or implemented at the subnational level, yet little information exists on within-country variation in nonpharmaceutical int...

Background and Purpose Pancreatic islet autoantibodies (iAb) are the hallmark of autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes. A more comprehensive understanding of the global iAb prevalence could help reduce avertible morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents and contribute to the understanding in the observed differences in the incidence, prevale...

Background: There is a lack of published studies on incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in Thailand. We aimed to estimate the national prevalence and incidence of T1D and DKA. Methods: Using Thailand's nationwide population-based longitudinal data covering 69 million individuals, we included the entire children and...

The majority of biomedical research is funded by public, governmental, and philanthropic grants. These initiatives often shape the avenues and scope of research across disease areas. However, the prioritization of disease-specific funding is not always reflective of the health and social burden of each disease. We identify a prioritization disparit...

Background Many children who develop tuberculosis are thought to be missed by diagnostic and reporting systems. We aimed to estimate paediatric tuberculosis incidence and underreporting between 2013 and 2019 in countries representing more than 99% of the global tuberculosis burden. Methods We developed a mathematical model of paediatric tuberculos...

Background: For patients with type 2 diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), access to newer antidiabetic drugs (eg, sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 [SGLT2] inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 [GLP-1] receptor agonists, and insulin analogues) could reduce the incidence of diabetes-related complications. We aimed to estimate pri...

Poster presented in the 8th ESWI Influenza Conference.

Background Decision making process for Official Development Assistance (ODA) for healthcare sector in low-income and middle-income countries involves multiple agencies, each with their unique power, priorities and funding mechanisms. This process at country level has not been well studied. Methods This paper developed and applied a new framework t...

Background Integration of HIV services with other health services has been proposed as an important strategy to boost the sustainability of the global HIV response. We conducted a systematic and comprehensive synthesis of the existing scientific evidence on the impact of service integration on the HIV care cascade, health outcomes, and cost-effecti...

• Sustainable Development Goal 3 aims to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages" and has set a target of achieving global universal health coverage, representing a major policy shift away from mostly disease-specific "vertical programmes". • While health service integration can be a promising strategy to improve healthcare...

Background: As the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia is increasing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), detailed evidence is urgently needed to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. This study sought to quantify unmet need for hypercholesterolemia care among adults in 35 LMICs. Methods and findings: We pooled individual...

Background Reducing socioeconomic inequalities in access to good quality health care is key for countries to achieve Universal Health Coverage. This study aims to assess socioeconomic inequalities in effective coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods Using the most re...

At the end of 2019, the first reports of a new respiratory virus appeared in China. The subsequent COVID-19 pandemic has affected every person, in every country, in the world. One early lesson was the crucial importance of timely accurate diagnosis. A second lesson was the widespread scarcity of such diagnostic capacity and capability. The second l...

We present a new concept, Punt Politics , and apply it to the COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in two epicenters of the pandemic: Mexico and Brazil. Punt Politics refers to national leaders in federal systems deferring or deflecting responsibility for health systems decision-making to sub-national entities without evidence or coordin...

Background The tuberculosis targets for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a 90% reduction in tuberculosis deaths by 2030, compared with 2015, but meeting this target now seems highly improbable. To assess the economic impact of not meeting the target until 2045, we estimated full-income losses in 120 countries, including those du...

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has strained health system capacity worldwide due to a surge of hospital admissions, while mitigation measures have simultaneously reduced patients' access to health care, affecting the diagnosis and treatment of other diseases such as cancer. We estimated the impact of delayed diagnosis on cancer outcomes in Chile...