Riel Miller

Ecole des Ponts Business School; University of New Brunswick; University of Stavanger

Translation in Farsi of Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century Translation team: Reza Dehnavi; Atousa Poursheikhali; Somaye Nuri Hekmat; Ali Masoud; Pardis Pourshikhali

This is the Foreword to the book by Benedikt Groß Eileen Mandir

Just because our blithe monumentalist folly ended up changing the conditions to which we've been accustomed-and which served as guidelines for our habits and rules-doesn't mean we can fix it or somehow acquire the power to control what we never controlled in the first place. The reproach, or admonition lurking behind so many dire warnings-usually i...

This paper offers a response to the question: what is futures studies (FS)? What do I consider to be the most coherent and useful definition of FS?

This report presents an overview of the evidence and impacts generated by Exploring the Future of Women in Sierra Leone. An eighteen-month action research project. Funded by the Canadian International Research Development Centre (IDRC) and implemented in collaboration with the University of Makeni (UniMak), the Ministry of Gender and Children’s Aff...

Thank you to Michela Ventin, editor-in-chief of Design Decode What is the discipline of anticipation? The word 'anticipation' offers one way to overcome the paradoxes and confusion that dessicate the meaning and use of the word 'future'. We all know that the future does not yet exist. If it did it wouldn't be the future. It would be the present. An...

Futures education has become an international hot topic in recent years. As futures have not yet happened, no one can predict where education will go in the future. Therefore, we need to study futures education through new perspectives. Futurist Riel Miller developed the concept of futures literacy to help people develop an ability to know what the...

What does it mean to 'liberate the human imagination'? First it does not mean, from the point-of-view of this article, somehow inventing wilder or wackier or unique descriptions of the future. Nor is it about more credible forecasts or visions that are so believable they launch a thousand ships. Here, freedom of the imagination emerges from the cap...

What is the relationship between futures literacy, the capacity to use-the-future for different reasons, with different methods, in different circumstances, and the 'capaciy to be free'? This brief article challenges the idea that humans are condemned to live in hierarchical, authoritarian communities permanently and fully beholden to directive com...

Designing a Futures Literacy Laboratory so that it takes participants on an action-learning/research voyage to explore imaginary futures rests on four distinct foundational theories or pillars: learning, laboratories, collective intelligence, and anticipation. Each of these frameworks for organizing our thinking about each specific topic provides a...

Invitations are usually offered with a desire to attract a specific audience. You want the invitees to come to your party. This invitation is no different, we want readers of this article to join us and many others who are already part of what we call the Global Futures Literacy Network, but not for a one-shot festive moment. Our hope is that what...

Dans le débat actuel sur le futur, l'apport de la littératie des futurs comme proposition fondée sur la compétence plutôt que les scénarios est un des plus riches. « Qu'est-ce que le futur ? » est une des questions stratégiques majeures à notre époque : comment dépasser l'idée d'un futur qui ne sert qu'à appuyer les agendas d'un passé et d'un prése...

The High-Level Futures Literacy Summit organised by UNESCO took place last December with the intention of promoting Futures Literacy to show how being 'future literate' changes what people see and do.-skopìa took part in the event presenting its Futures Literacy projects for organisations, enterprises, public administrations and schools and offerin...

Los futuristas están obsesionados por un problema sin resolver: cómo lidiar con el futuro, a la vez incognoscible y rico en novedades. La mayoría de los futuristas sean o no miembros de la APF, han aceptado desde hace algunos años que la predicción y la probabilidad son formas limitadas de pensar sobre el futuro. Sin embargo, saber lo que no funcio...

This article explores the relationship between Futures Literacy and Media Literacy on the basis of the anticipatory systems and processes framework outlined in Transforming the Future.

Reflections on the Futures Literacy Summit that occurred in 2020 entirely on-line.

L’apport de la littératie des futurs à l’anticipation se rapproche de celui de l’écriture à la parole. La langue parlée tout comme l’anticipation relèvent de capacités innées à l’espèce humaine. Il nous est possible de renforcer et de déployer l’étendue de ces capacités grâce à des compétences socialement et historiquement construites : l’écriture...

This chapter offers an introduction to a capability called Futures Literacy (FL), a framework for making sense of the anticipatory assumptions that distinguish different kinds of FL, and one specific research tool called Futures Literacy Laboratories (FLL) that has been designed to explore anticipatory assumptions. The chapter points to the followi...

OPEN ACCESS: https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781351047999 Anticipation is a fundamental building block of this universe. It is a key to turning complexity from a liability into an asset. Yet few have thought about the anticipatory systems and processes that not only surround us but are critical ingredients of the actions everyone, from a bab...

Governments of the Republic of Korea have an exemplary record in providing leadership through published visions and strategies. This review is inspired by seven such endeavors conducted since 1999. All of these efforts use the future to motivate changes in the present. However, over time there has been a gradual shift in the content of the visions,...

Inter-temporal categories exist for describing both the dynamics of change and the status of existing systems. Birth and death, stasis and chaos, contradiction and decay, renaissance and discontinuity, cyclical and punctuated – all of these terms and many more can be used to describe both snapshots and/or movies of what we already know. But new mod...

This is a series of articles, originally published in IntellectualCaptital.com from September 1997 to December 1999, that explore the future of the internet and the obstacles that inhibit its full potential. Topics covered include cyber-citizenship, privacy and encryption, peer-to-peer payment systems and the future of money, etc.

My aim in this lecture is to provide a snapshot of some the recent thinking about why and how we can use the future for decision-making, inside and outside of government. I want to start with an overview of some of the reasons why we invest in thinking about the future and then go on to discuss in greater detail recent developments in the theory an...

A narrative version of the Learning Intensive Society (LIS) scenario.

Futures Literacy is the capacity to design and implement processes that make use of anticipation, generally with the purpose of trying to understand and act in a complex emergent context. This article examines the potential of Futures Literacy to contribute to the realisation of a better balance between learning that is shaped by the supposition th...

What can leaders do when they try to take on the task of leading transformation? Riel Miller proposes innovative Experimentalist Leadership (EL) as one effective response. This model rests on two skills – improving ‘capacity to use the future’; and being able to design ‘collective intelligence knowledge creation processes’ – and an experimentalist...

Organizational learning is one type of value created by scenarios and strategic foresight within companies. However, relatively little attention has been devoted to what and how individuals – such as managers and strategists – learn from participation within strategic scenario processes. The paper focuses on the learning effects of scenario process...

Les prospectivistes sont hantés par un problème qui n’est pas résolu : comment utiliser le futur, à la fois prometteur et impossible à connaître. La plupart d’entre eux, qu’ils soient membres ou non de l’Association of Professional Futurists (APF), reconnaissent depuis quelques années que la prédiction et la probabilité sont des moyens très insuffi...

"The Futures Literacy UNESCO Knowledge Laboratory (FL Uknowlab) was conducted on the 25-26th of November 2013 in Bogot , Republic of Colombia, with a group of 28 participants from Regional Labor Observatories (Red de Observatorios Regionales de Mercado de Trabajo, RED ORMET), the Ministry of Labor, the National Apprenticeship Service (SENA), and th...

Making decisions that embrace complexity, treating uncertainty as a resource not an enemy, calls for a significantly enhanced capacity to use the future to understand the present. Building this greater capacity rests on bringing anticipation out into the open as the way the future exists in the present. Doing so makes clear that conscious human sea...

This paper considers the changes in education and capacity building that are needed in response to environmental and social challenges of the 21st Century. We argue that such changes will require more than adjustments in current educational systems, research funding strategies, and interdisciplinary collaborations. Instead, it calls for a deeper qu...

No consistent answer can affirm one way or another if, by augmenting humanity’s conscious anticipatory capacities, the future will be better. There is no way to know if by being futures literate we will manage to modify what we consider harmful, human induced consequences in the world around us. But at least if we fail it will not be because we ref...

Futurists are haunted by an unresolved problem – how to deal with the unknowable and novelty rich future. Most futurists in the APF and elsewhere have accepted for some years now that prediction and probability are limited ways of thinking about the future. But knowing what does not work is not the same as knowing what does. The paradox of futures...

Purpose – This article aims to focus on how to ensure that Future-Oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities have an impact on decision-making. On the basis of the extensive experience of the authors, this article seeks to offer suggestions regarding the factors that may help policy makers, academics, consultants, and others involved in FTA pr...

See www.managedoutcomes.eu

Research Councils and Societal Transformation: What is a "grand challenge" and how can collective efforts to encourage research make a difference? A few personal reflections by Riel Miller in light of meetings and discussions organized by the Research Council of Norway.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies. Design/methodology/approach The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future. Findings The paper finds that the practical ch...

What is a Professional Futurist (PF)? This short unpublished paper, prepared at the request of the Association of Professional Futurists, while I was still on the Board, represents an effort to distill some key attributes of the professional futurist. This is a work in progress...

Promethean Thinking Deeper Research Papers Series sponsors leading experts to conduct and report on cutting-edge thinking and state-of-the-art global academic/ policy knowledge with respect to the role of new technologies (innovative tools and organisation) in meeting the challenges of learning in the 21st Century. 21st Century Learning Promethean...

Promethean Thinking Deeper Research Papers provide sponsorship for global experts to conduct and report on cutting-edge thinking and state-of-the-art global academic/policy knowledge with respect to the role of new technologies (innovative tools and organization) in meeting the challenges of learning in the 21st Century.

The world is not more complicated or complex today than yesterday; when it comes to seeing and acting in any specific situation it is capacity that makes the difference, not the absolute number of permutations or even unfamiliarity. What seems complicated to a child may seem like child's play to an adult. In particular, what matters is the sophisti...

When an explorer seeks to discover “uncharted” territory or an innovator to invent something so far unknown, they do not know what they will find – otherwise it would not be exploration. But what they do have are tools and methods, ways of guiding their efforts so that they do not wander in circles or “reinvent the wheel”. When thinking about the f...

A reflection on the 2008/2009 crash and the opportunity it presented. NOTE: an opportunity not taken.

We are living a moment when the swirling clouds of evolutionary complexity part, offering a glimpse of a landscape where three features stand out and what needs to be done becomes clear. It is time to embrace experimentalism. The shocking The first feature is that the emperor has no clothes. The financial system's detachment from the "real economy"...

This short essay offers a sketch of an imaginary “learning intensive society” as an example of non-ergodic thinking – sense making in a “Paquetian key”. The imagined discontinuity at the core of this essay is in the relationship between knowledge and wealth. For a long time this relationship has been considered equivalent to the relationship betwee...

The relationship between knowledge and wealth is often equated to the relationship between certified skills and paid employment in the form of a ‘job’. This is a limited way of defining both what people know how to do and the value added by people’s efforts. Considerable attention has been paid to different ways of accounting for broader conceptual...

This report uses a rigorous imagining approach to develop an alternative way of organizing learning in Europe whereby the traditional school system no longer plays a significant role. This study shows that, on the basis of phenomena already present in Europe today, it is possible to invent a discontinuous model of how people learn and how what they...

The research summarized in this article shows that schooling is necessary for industrial development. The form of schooling that emerged in the 19th century generates specific cognitive, behavioral and social knowledge that are critical ingredients for the way industrial society organizes: - production and consumption; - daily life in cities and na...

What stories do we tell about the future? This article develops a topology of storytelling about the future, which is used to develop a definition of ‘futures literacy’. It goes on to outline a hybrid strategic scenario method for acquiring the capacities of futures literacy.

Report of the Expert Group. Directorate-General for Research Directorate C – European Research Area: Knowledge-based economy Unit C4 – Economic and prospective analysis

The main contention of this paper is that the use of trends, be they familiar or not, well founded or not, is in most cases a bad way to think about the future. There are three fundamental reasons for being sceptical about using trends to engage in futures thinking.

The entire Smart Banking Forum revealed assumptions that for different companies in different markets open up different questions. Exploring the particular cases, tied to the attributes of a specific company, would be a very fruitful exercise. Here only one broad question is posed as a way to suggest directions for further discussion. To what exten...

Purpose The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between equity and schooling in a post‐industrial society using a scenario of the learning intensive society. Design/methodology/approach The method used here, but not elaborated as such, is based on a “hybrid strategic scenario method” that is a technique for building “futures lit...

Riel Miller presents the field of futures studies, drawing a number of parallels with the study of history. He describes how the search for greater predictive accuracy involves risks.

and policy discussions on education’s future and so is a natural component of CERI’s “Schooling for Tomorrow” programme. It springs from the awareness that “one-size-fits-all” approaches to school knowledge and organisation are illadapted both to individuals’ needs and to the knowledge society at large. But “personalisation” can mean many things an...

Selon les auteurs, la personnalisation promet de pallier les résultats inégaux de l’offre éducative et de lier l’innovation dans le secteur public aux transformations plus larges qui s’opèrent dans les sociétés des pays de l’OCDE. Elle ne consiste pas simplement à choisir entre des circuits d’offre alternatifs mais à façonner et combiner différents...

Suggestion is what futures thinking is about. This essay suggests that at some point in the future, say a few decades from now, it might be possible that we will live in a learning intensive society. This suggestion is offered neither as a prediction nor a hope. Rather the aim is to question a few of the assumptions that seem to shape current expec...

Thoughts expressed in 2003 about leadership in the context of Futures Literacy - imagining post-industrial 'assemblage' compatible 'leadership'.

The next phase of ‘public sector reform’ is not about managerial innovations. It is about the creation of new communities, new networks and new markets. It is about redefining what the public sector does rather than how it does it. This does not mean that the management of the services currently provided by public employees should not be reformed....

Commissioned by the National College for School Leadership this report co-authored by Riel Miller, while he was at the OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation and Tom Bentley, then Director at Demos in London, explores the leadership opportunities that emerge when the future is used in different ways. In this case the future is used to...

Looking to the next few decades, technological advances combined with fairly dramatic economic and social changes could create conditions for the emergence of new, virtual forms of money and credit. On the positive side these digital forms of money could help to create more efficient and more global economies and societies. On the negative side tom...

This chapter addresses the question ‘Is it possible and is it desirable to establish international standards for reporting on human capital?’. (42) At this stage in the proceedings fairly clear answers have been provided to both parts of this question. So far we have seen that companies are already introducing human capital reporting with internati...

At the outset of the 21st century, confidence in the effectiveness and legitimacy of established forms of governance is ebbing. This article considers historical developments in governance, the driving forces likely to transform governance worldwide and the policies that might have the best chance of enhancing governance capacities in line with the...

The OECD analysts - the think-tank of the governments of the industrialized countries - forecast the possibility of a sustained long boom over the first decades of the new millennium, lifting the long-run average of living standards to a higher level. Knowledge economy, integration of global markets and environmental sustainability might be the dri...

The prospects for prosperity and well‐being in the 21st century will depend on leveraging social diversity to encourage technological, economic and social dynamism. A striking confluence of forces over the next twenty years could drive a twofold convergence: first, towards more highly differentiated and complex societies, and second, towards the ad...

The prospects for prosperity and well-being in the 21st century will depend on leveraging social diversity to encourage technological, economic and social dynamism. A striking confluence of forces over the next twenty years could drive a twofold convergence: first, towards more highly differentiated and complex societies, and second, towards the ad...

Few dispute the very strong likelihood that within twenty years the global information infrastructure, often referred to as the internet or “the net” will become as generalized, indispensable and invisible as today”s phone or electrical networks. Many commentators also expect this digital web to become the host for cyberspace, the next frontier. Th...

The next few decades hold the prospect of remarkable progress in a wide range of pervasive technologies that are likely to have a profound effect on how we live, work, and spend our leisure time. These technologies are sit to revolutionize the worlds of medicine, agriculture, travel, retailing... much that is familiar in our daily lives. Used wisel...

The world stands on the threshold of a tantalizing opportunity: the possibility of a sustained economic boom over the first decades of the next millennium. This article outlines the confluence of forces – particularly the transition to a knowledge society, the emergence of a global economy and the pursuit of environmental sustainability – which cou...

The world stands on the threshold of a tantalising opportunity-the possibility of a sustained long boom over the first decades of the next millennium. It is an opportunity we should not miss. The key factors needed to spark a long boom do indeed appear to be present today. However, its prospects depend first, on the condition of the underlying syst...

The next few decades hold the prospect of remarkable progress in a wide range of pervasive technologies that are likely to have a profound effect on how we live, work, and spend our leisure time. These technologies are sit to revolutionize the worlds of medicine, agriculture, travel, retailing... much that is familiar in our daily lives. Used wisel...

Pressure on the social fabric of OECD countries is expected to grow over the next two decades as the rapid pace of economic, social and technological change continues. A recent conference organised by the OECD's Forum for the Future considered innovative ways - including, and going beyond, social-policy remedies - of maintaining the cohesion of soc...

For OECD governments, the need to rethink human capital information and decision making systems is an urgent task. Fiscal limits are colliding with a growing demand for more education and training. At the same time, companies and individuals are unhappy with the fit between schooling and the world of work. Those that hope to engage in lifelong lear...

This paper examines the changing conditions for the identification, expression, and performance of collective relationships. It suggests that the changes taking place in existing institutions and legacy or inherited aspirations/expectations might open the way for the emergence of novel relationships and organizational forms. Experiments are occurri...

At its final destination this paper reaches two conclusions: 1. In the knowledge economy (KE), the intersection of territorial development (TD) and human capital (HC) policies occurs when local programs facilitate the valorisation and transparency of people’s productive (wealth creating, both market and non-market) competences. 2. Amongst numerous...

Incl. bibliographical references