Riel Miller

Riel Miller
Ecole des Ponts Business School; University of New Brunswick; University of Stavanger

PhD Economics
Senior Fellow: Ecole des Ponts Business School; University of New Brunswick; and University of Stavanger

About

90
Publications
90,969
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Introduction
For over thirty years Riel Miller has been pioneering advances in the theory & practice of using the future as a means to improve management & public policy, with a focus on transformational leadership. He has designed & implemented hundreds of projects worldwide, using the future in order to change what people see and do. He is an experienced & innovative educator, a pioneer of Futures Literacy & the Discipline of Anticipation. He is widely published in academic journals & other media on a range of topics, from the future of education & the Internet to the transformation of leadership & productivity. He is an accomplished keynote speaker & facilitator. His unflagging ambition is to find ways to put the richness of complex emergence at the service of humanity's capacity to be free.
Additional affiliations
October 2005 - May 2012
Sciences Po Paris
Position
  • Faculty Member, Masters of Public Affairs
January 1995 - December 2004
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Position
  • Principal Adminstrator, International Futures Programme
June 1988 - October 1994
Government of Ontario, Canada
Position
  • Various positions in the Senior Management Group: Education, Finance, Industry

Publications

Publications (90)
Presentation
Full-text available
The High-Level Futures Literacy Summit organised by UNESCO took place last December with the intention of promoting Futures Literacy to show how being 'future literate' changes what people see and do.-skopìa took part in the event presenting its Futures Literacy projects for organisations, enterprises, public administrations and schools and offerin...
Chapter
Full-text available
Los futuristas están obsesionados por un problema sin resolver: cómo lidiar con el futuro, a la vez incognoscible y rico en novedades. La mayoría de los futuristas sean o no miembros de la APF, han aceptado desde hace algunos años que la predicción y la probabilidad son formas limitadas de pensar sobre el futuro. Sin embargo, saber lo que no funcio...
Chapter
Full-text available
This article explores the relationship between Futures Literacy and Media Literacy on the basis of the anticipatory systems and processes framework outlined in Transforming the Future.
Book
Full-text available
L’apport de la littératie des futurs à l’anticipation se rapproche de celui de l’écriture à la parole. La langue parlée tout comme l’anticipation relèvent de capacités innées à l’espèce humaine. Il nous est possible de renforcer et de déployer l’étendue de ces capacités grâce à des compétences socialement et historiquement construites : l’écriture...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter offers an introduction to a capability called Futures Literacy (FL), a framework for making sense of the anticipatory assumptions that distinguish different kinds of FL, and one specific research tool called Futures Literacy Laboratories (FLL) that has been designed to explore anticipatory assumptions. The chapter points to the followi...
Book
Full-text available
OPEN ACCESS: https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781351047999 Anticipation is a fundamental building block of this universe. It is a key to turning complexity from a liability into an asset. Yet few have thought about the anticipatory systems and processes that not only surround us but are critical ingredients of the actions everyone, from a bab...
Article
Full-text available
Governments of the Republic of Korea have an exemplary record in providing leadership through published visions and strategies. This review is inspired by seven such endeavors conducted since 1999. All of these efforts use the future to motivate changes in the present. However, over time there has been a gradual shift in the content of the visions,...
Research
Full-text available
Inter-temporal categories exist for describing both the dynamics of change and the status of existing systems. Birth and death, stasis and chaos, contradiction and decay, renaissance and discontinuity, cyclical and punctuated – all of these terms and many more can be used to describe both snapshots and/or movies of what we already know. But new mod...
Research
Full-text available
This is a series of articles, originally published in IntellectualCaptital.com from September 1997 to December 1999, that explore the future of the internet and the obstacles that inhibit its full potential. Topics covered include cyber-citizenship, privacy and encryption, peer-to-peer payment systems and the future of money, etc.
Chapter
Full-text available
My aim in this lecture is to provide a snapshot of some the recent thinking about why and how we can use the future for decision-making, inside and outside of government. I want to start with an overview of some of the reasons why we invest in thinking about the future and then go on to discuss in greater detail recent developments in the theory an...
Chapter
Full-text available
A narrative version of the Learning Intensive Society (LIS) scenario.
Article
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The claim made in this article is that a specific change in the conditions of change, the diffusion of Futures Literacy, is one way of improving the capacity of individuals and organisations to: a) detect and give meaning to discontiniuty, and b) thereby become more capable of initiating learning processes (undertaking research of all kinds, from t...
Technical Report
Full-text available
What can leaders do when they try to take on the task of leading transformation? Riel Miller proposes innovative Experimentalist Leadership (EL) as one effective response. This model rests on two skills – improving ‘capacity to use the future’; and being able to design ‘collective intelligence knowledge creation processes’ – and an experimentalist...
Article
Full-text available
Organizational learning is one type of value created by scenarios and strategic foresight within companies. However, relatively little attention has been devoted to what and how individuals – such as managers and strategists – learn from participation within strategic scenario processes. The paper focuses on the learning effects of scenario process...
Chapter
Full-text available
Les prospectivistes sont hantés par un problème qui n’est pas résolu : comment utiliser le futur, à la fois prometteur et impossible à connaître. La plupart d’entre eux, qu’ils soient membres ou non de l’Association of Professional Futurists (APF), reconnaissent depuis quelques années que la prédiction et la probabilité sont des moyens très insuffi...
Technical Report
Full-text available
"The Futures Literacy UNESCO Knowledge Laboratory (FL Uknowlab) was conducted on the 25-26th of November 2013 in Bogot , Republic of Colombia, with a group of 28 participants from Regional Labor Observatories (Red de Observatorios Regionales de Mercado de Trabajo, RED ORMET), the Ministry of Labor, the National Apprenticeship Service (SENA), and th...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Making decisions that embrace complexity, treating uncertainty as a resource not an enemy, calls for a significantly enhanced capacity to use the future to understand the present. Building this greater capacity rests on bringing anticipation out into the open as the way the future exists in the present. Doing so makes clear that conscious human sea...
Article
Full-text available
This paper considers the changes in education and capacity building that are needed in response to environmental and social challenges of the 21st Century. We argue that such changes will require more than adjustments in current educational systems, research funding strategies, and interdisciplinary collaborations. Instead, it calls for a deeper qu...
Chapter
Full-text available
No consistent answer can affirm one way or another if, by augmenting humanity’s conscious anticipatory capacities, the future will be better. There is no way to know if by being futures literate we will manage to modify what we consider harmful, human induced consequences in the world around us. But at least if we fail it will not be because we ref...
Chapter
Full-text available
Futurists are haunted by an unresolved problem – how to deal with the unknowable and novelty rich future. Most futurists in the APF and elsewhere have accepted for some years now that prediction and probability are limited ways of thinking about the future. But knowing what does not work is not the same as knowing what does. The paradox of futures...
Article
Purpose – This article aims to focus on how to ensure that Future-Oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities have an impact on decision-making. On the basis of the extensive experience of the authors, this article seeks to offer suggestions regarding the factors that may help policy makers, academics, consultants, and others involved in FTA pr...
Technical Report
Full-text available
See www.managedoutcomes.eu
Presentation
Full-text available
Research Councils and Societal Transformation: What is a "grand challenge" and how can collective efforts to encourage research make a difference? A few personal reflections by Riel Miller in light of meetings and discussions organized by the Research Council of Norway.
Article
Full-text available
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future. Findings – The paper finds that the practica...
Technical Report
Full-text available
What is a Professional Futurist (PF)? This short unpublished paper, prepared at the request of the Association of Professional Futurists, while I was still on the Board, represents an effort to distill some key attributes of the professional futurist. This is a work in progress...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Promethean Thinking Deeper Research Papers Series sponsors leading experts to conduct and report on cutting-edge thinking and state-of-the-art global academic/ policy knowledge with respect to the role of new technologies (innovative tools and organisation) in meeting the challenges of learning in the 21st Century. 21st Century Learning Promethean...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Promethean Thinking Deeper Research Papers provide sponsorship for global experts to conduct and report on cutting-edge thinking and state-of-the-art global academic/policy knowledge with respect to the role of new technologies (innovative tools and organization) in meeting the challenges of learning in the 21st Century.
Article
Full-text available
The world is not more complicated or complex today than yesterday; when it comes to seeing and acting in any specific situation it is capacity that makes the difference, not the absolute number of permutations or even unfamiliarity. What seems complicated to a child may seem like child's play to an adult. In particular, what matters is the sophisti...
Chapter
Full-text available
When an explorer seeks to discover “uncharted” territory or an innovator to invent something so far unknown, they do not know what they will find – otherwise it would not be exploration. But what they do have are tools and methods, ways of guiding their efforts so that they do not wander in circles or “reinvent the wheel”. When thinking about the f...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
A reflection on the 2008/2009 crash and the opportunity it presented. NOTE: an opportunity not taken.
Article
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We are living a moment when the swirling clouds of evolutionary complexity part, offering a glimpse of a landscape where three features stand out and what needs to be done becomes clear. It is time to embrace experimentalism. The shocking The first feature is that the emperor has no clothes. The financial system's detachment from the "real economy"...
Chapter
Full-text available
This short essay offers a sketch of an imaginary “learning intensive society” as an example of non-ergodic thinking – sense making in a “Paquetian key”. The imagined discontinuity at the core of this essay is in the relationship between knowledge and wealth. For a long time this relationship has been considered equivalent to the relationship betwee...
Chapter
Full-text available
The relationship between knowledge and wealth is often equated to the relationship between certified skills and paid employment in the form of a ‘job’. This is a limited way of defining both what people know how to do and the value added by people’s efforts. Considerable attention has been paid to different ways of accounting for broader conceptual...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report uses a rigorous imagining approach to develop an alternative way of organizing learning in Europe whereby the traditional school system no longer plays a significant role. This study shows that, on the basis of phenomena already present in Europe today, it is possible to invent a discontinuous model of how people learn and how what they...
Technical Report
Full-text available
The research summarized in this article shows that schooling is necessary for industrial development. The form of schooling that emerged in the 19th century generates specific cognitive, behavioral and social knowledge that are critical ingredients for the way industrial society organizes: - production and consumption; - daily life in cities and na...
Article
Full-text available
What stories do we tell about the future? This article develops a topology of storytelling about the future, which is used to develop a definition of ‘futures literacy’. It goes on to outline a hybrid strategic scenario method for acquiring the capacities of futures literacy.
Article
Full-text available
Report of the Expert Group. Directorate-General for Research Directorate C – European Research Area: Knowledge-based economy Unit C4 – Economic and prospective analysis
Technical Report
Full-text available
The main contention of this paper is that the use of trends, be they familiar or not, well founded or not, is in most cases a bad way to think about the future. There are three fundamental reasons for being sceptical about using trends to engage in futures thinking.
Technical Report
Full-text available
The entire Smart Banking Forum revealed assumptions that for different companies in different markets open up different questions. Exploring the particular cases, tied to the attributes of a specific company, would be a very fruitful exercise. Here only one broad question is posed as a way to suggest directions for further discussion. To what exten...
Article
Full-text available
The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between equity and schooling in a post-industrial society using a scenario of the learning intensive society. The method used here, but not elaborated as such, is based on a "hybrid strategic scenario method" that is a technique for building "futures literacy". The article offers a scenario...
Chapter
Riel Miller presents the field of futures studies, drawing a number of parallels with the study of history. He describes how the search for greater predictive accuracy involves risks.
Book
Full-text available
and policy discussions on education’s future and so is a natural component of CERI’s “Schooling for Tomorrow” programme. It springs from the awareness that “one-size-fits-all” approaches to school knowledge and organisation are illadapted both to individuals’ needs and to the knowledge society at large. But “personalisation” can mean many things an...
Chapter
Full-text available
Selon les auteurs, la personnalisation promet de pallier les résultats inégaux de l’offre éducative et de lier l’innovation dans le secteur public aux transformations plus larges qui s’opèrent dans les sociétés des pays de l’OCDE. Elle ne consiste pas simplement à choisir entre des circuits d’offre alternatifs mais à façonner et combiner différents...
Chapter
Full-text available
Suggestion is what futures thinking is about. This essay suggests that at some point in the future, say a few decades from now, it might be possible that we will live in a learning intensive society. This suggestion is offered neither as a prediction nor a hope. Rather the aim is to question a few of the assumptions that seem to shape current expec...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Thoughts expressed in 2003 about leadership in the context of Futures Literacy - imagining post-industrial 'assemblage' compatible 'leadership'.
Chapter
Full-text available
The next phase of ‘public sector reform’ is not about managerial innovations. It is about the creation of new communities, new networks and new markets. It is about redefining what the public sector does rather than how it does it. This does not mean that the management of the services currently provided by public employees should not be reformed....
Technical Report
Full-text available
Commissioned by the National College for School Leadership this report co-authored by Riel Miller, while he was at the OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation and Tom Bentley, then Director at Demos in London, explores the leadership opportunities that emerge when the future is used in different ways. In this case the future is used to...
Book
Full-text available
Looking to the next few decades, technological advances combined with fairly dramatic economic and social changes could create conditions for the emergence of new, virtual forms of money and credit. On the positive side these digital forms of money could help to create more efficient and more global economies and societies. On the negative side tom...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter addresses the question ‘Is it possible and is it desirable to establish international standards for reporting on human capital?’. (42) At this stage in the proceedings fairly clear answers have been provided to both parts of this question. So far we have seen that companies are already introducing human capital reporting with internati...
Article
Full-text available
At the outset of the 21st century, confidence in the effectiveness and legitimacy of established forms of governance is ebbing. This article considers historical developments in governance, the driving forces likely to transform governance worldwide and the policies that might have the best chance of enhancing governance capacities in line with the...
Article
The OECD analysts - the think-tank of the governments of the industrialized countries - forecast the possibility of a sustained long boom over the first decades of the new millennium, lifting the long-run average of living standards to a higher level. Knowledge economy, integration of global markets and environmental sustainability might be the dri...
Chapter
Full-text available
The prospects for prosperity and well-being in the 21st century will depend on leveraging social diversity to encourage technological, economic and social dynamism. A striking confluence of forces over the next twenty years could drive a twofold convergence: first, towards more highly differentiated and complex societies, and second, towards the ad...
Article
Full-text available
Few dispute the very strong likelihood that within twenty years the global information infrastructure, often referred to as the internet or “the net” will become as generalized, indispensable and invisible as today”s phone or electrical networks. Many commentators also expect this digital web to become the host for cyberspace, the next frontier. Th...
Chapter
Full-text available
The next few decades hold the prospect of remarkable progress in a wide range of pervasive technologies that are likely to have a profound effect on how we live, work, and spend our leisure time. These technologies are sit to revolutionize the worlds of medicine, agriculture, travel, retailing... much that is familiar in our daily lives. Used wisel...
Article
Full-text available
The world stands on the threshold of a tantalizing opportunity: the possibility of a sustained economic boom over the first decades of the next millennium. This article outlines the confluence of forces – particularly the transition to a knowledge society, the emergence of a global economy and the pursuit of environmental sustainability – which cou...
Article
Full-text available
The world stands on the threshold of a tantalising opportunity-the possibility of a sustained long boom over the first decades of the next millennium. It is an opportunity we should not miss. The key factors needed to spark a long boom do indeed appear to be present today. However, its prospects depend first, on the condition of the underlying syst...
Book
Full-text available
The next few decades hold the prospect of remarkable progress in a wide range of pervasive technologies that are likely to have a profound effect on how we live, work, and spend our leisure time. These technologies are sit to revolutionize the worlds of medicine, agriculture, travel, retailing... much that is familiar in our daily lives. Used wisel...
Article
Full-text available
Pressure on the social fabric of OECD countries is expected to grow over the next two decades as the rapid pace of economic, social and technological change continues. A recent conference organised by the OECD's Forum for the Future considered innovative ways - including, and going beyond, social-policy remedies - of maintaining the cohesion of soc...
Book
Full-text available
For OECD governments, the need to rethink human capital information and decision making systems is an urgent task. Fiscal limits are colliding with a growing demand for more education and training. At the same time, companies and individuals are unhappy with the fit between schooling and the world of work. Those that hope to engage in lifelong lear...
Technical Report
Full-text available
At its final destination this paper reaches two conclusions: 1. In the knowledge economy (KE), the intersection of territorial development (TD) and human capital (HC) policies occurs when local programs facilitate the valorisation and transparency of people’s productive (wealth creating, both market and non-market) competences. 2. Amongst numerous...
Technical Report
Full-text available
Article
University Microfilms order no. 8816736. Thesis (Ph. D.)--New School for Social Research, 1987. Includes bibliographical references.
Article
Il problema fondamentale quando si deve decidere se eliminare una regolamentazione è quello di stabilire se i costi di quest'ultima superano i benefici.Tradizionalmente, tuttavia, sia costi che benefici della regolamentazione non sono stati quantificati, con il risultato che i responsabili delle decisioni pubbliche sono stati lasciati decidere sull...
Article
Typescript. Thesis (Ph.D.)--New School for Social Research, 1987. Includes bibliographical references.

Projects

Projects (3)
Project
This is an effort to test specific hypotheses regarding the outcomes and design of Futures Literacy Knowledge Laboratories.