Richard S.J. Tol

Richard S.J. Tol
University of Sussex · Department of Economics

MSc, PhD, MEA

About

722
Publications
281,586
Reads
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40,307
Citations
Additional affiliations
January 2012 - present
University of Sussex
Position
  • Professor
January 2012 - present
University of Sussex
Position
  • Professor (Full)
January 2010 - December 2012
Trinity College Dublin
Position
  • Professor (Associate)
Education
September 1992 - January 1997
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Field of study
  • Economics
September 1988 - August 1992
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Field of study
  • Econometrics

Publications

Publications (722)
Preprint
Complex physical models are the most advanced tools available for producing realistic simulations of the climate system. However, such levels of realism imply high computational cost and restrictions on their use for policymaking and risk assessment. Two central characteristics of climate change are uncertainty and that it is a dynamic problem in w...
Article
Economic models of climate change are the basis for climate policy design. However, incorrect representation of physical dynamics in these models could lead to biased advice.
Article
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Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Sha...
Article
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The mixed results in Pielke (2020) for natural disaster loss normalisation studies are due to methodological differences. Flaws exist in commonly used normalisation approaches that assume unitary elasticities between exposure indicators and losses. We refute Pielke’s arguments that statistical studies estimating these relationships are biased. We c...
Article
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This paper develops a climate-economy model with uncertainty, irreversibility, and active learning. Whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period, or experiment with control variables to gain additional information, this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring, specifically in improved observations of...
Article
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We examine the causal effects of the energy subsidy programme PetroCaribe in the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental. We use the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual and compare it to the outcomes of the beneficiary countries and thus estimate the magnitude and direction of the PetroCari...
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Recently it has been hypothesized that climate change will affect total factor productivity growth. Given the importance of TFP for long-run economic growth, if true this would entail a substantial upward revision of current impact estimates. Using macro TFP data from a recently developed dataset in the Penn World Table, we test this hypothesis by...
Article
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The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically a...
Article
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The risk of malaria transmission worldwide is expected to increase with climate change. In order to estimate the welfare implications, we analyse the factors that explain willingness to pay to avoid malaria morbidity using a meta-analysis. We fail to replicate a previous meta-analysis, despite using a near-identical dataset. Thus, this paper outlin...
Chapter
The Netherlands is a delta country where water is usually abundant. Large investments in water infrastructure aim to prevent flooding, maintain shipping transport routes, irrigate farmland and ensure the health of polder lands and nature. During the limited periods when water is scarce, agriculture is low on the priority list for water allocation:...
Article
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At the Climate Change Conference in Montréal in 2005, the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change decided to start a dialogue to exchange experiences and analyse strategic approaches for long-term cooperative action to address climate change.1 The Parties did not have to start their dialogue from scratch. In the last few years, policy...
Article
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UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based...
Article
This paper assesses the potential benefits of climate change mitigation in reducing the impacts of sea-level rise over the 21st century in G-20 countries (excluding the European Union as a whole), using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model. Impacts of the expected number of people flooded annually and wetland losses were assessed....
Article
Using the LSMS-ISA Tanzania National Panel Survey by the World Bank, we study the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks over the period 2008–2013. Temperature shocks have a negative and significant impact on household growth if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold. As such, temperature s...
Preprint
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Climate change already has widespread impacts on society, including the performance of stock markets. Previous studies have focused on how financial markets react to natural disasters such as extreme weather events and provided empirical evidence and mechanistic processes on how this information is assimilated by the investors. Market efficiency th...
Article
We explore the relationship between natural disasters and income inequality in Sri Lanka as the first study of this nature for the country. The analysis uses a unique panel data set constructed for the purpose of this paper. It contains district inequality measures based on household income reported in six waves of the Household Income and Expendit...
Presentation
Full-text available
We assess UNESCO World Heritage at risk to coastal erosion and flooding under different sea-level rise scenarios until 2100 based on spatially explicit representations of each World Heritage Site.
Article
This article reviews the economic impacts of climate change and the policy implications of the results. Current estimates indicate that climate change will likely have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the twenty-first century. In fact, the initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. However, in the long run the negat...
Preprint
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Harvey et al. (2017) is an attempt on a colleague's reputation. They collected data by an unclear process, validated by data of unknown provenance. They artificially inflate the dimensionality of their data before reducing that dimensionality with a questionably applied PCA. They pretend their results are two dimensional where there is only one dim...
Article
We investigate the stability of International Environmental Agreements. The analysis of Chwe is extended by investigating the question how to find farsightedly stable coalitions. The myopic stability concept of d'Aspremont, Jacquemin, Gabszeweiz, and Weymark and the farsighted stability concept of Chwe are compared. Farsighted stability, direct and...
Article
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We estimate the impact of natural disasters on financial development proxied by private credit. We employ a panel fixed effects estimator as our main estimation tool on a country level panel data set of natural disasters and other economic indicators covering 147 countries for the period from 1979 to 2011. We find that companies and households get...
Article
Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level...
Article
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This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions per-capita and economic growth in a panel of 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1971-2011. This empirical relationship, known in the economic literature as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, suggests that the relationship be...
Article
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Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthro...
Data
Estimated economic effects due to anthropogenic forcing with and without interaction effects. (a) estimates for PAGE, DICE2007, DICE99 and MA. (b) estimates for FUNDn3.6 average and FUNDn3.6 equity. NI denotes that interaction effects are not included. (TIF)
Data
Estimated deaths per million people during the 20th century per disease. Deaths caused by (a) impacts associated to observed global temperature change (S_OBS), (b) impacts associated to the effects of anthropogenic radiative forcing (S_AF), (c) impacts associated to the effects of natural radiative forcing (S_NF) and (d) impacts associated to the e...
Data
Estimated economic effects for the 20th century per IAM. (a) PAGE2002, (b) DICE99, (c) DICE2007, (d) MA, (e) FUNDn3.6 average and (f) FUNDn3.6 equity. (TIFF)
Data
Parameter values of the damage functions in the DICE99 and DICE2007 models. (DOCX)
Data
Supplementary information about impact functions and additional results. (DOC)
Data
Estimated economic effects over the 20th century per sector. (a) agriculture, (b) water resources, (c) energy and (d) health. (TIF)
Data
Parameter values for the economic and non-economic sectors for EU and regional weights from PAGE2002. (DOCX)
Data
Correlation coefficients between the estimated impacts from the preindustrial scenario and AMO, SOI, NAO and PDO. (DOCX)
Data
Misspecification testing for the models for S_NVit based on key variability modes and the persistence of impacts. (DOCX)
Data
Long-run response of estimated impacts to one standard deviation shocks to AMO and SOI as a percentage of GDP. (DOCX)
Data
Regression models for S_NVit based on key variability modes and the persistence of impacts. (DOCX)
Article
This paper investigates the effect of learning on climate policy under fat tailed risk about climate change. We construct an endogenous learning model with fat-tailed uncertainty about the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a decision maker with a possibility of learning lowers efforts to reduce carbon emissions relative to the no-learni...
Article
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The Fisher Ideal index, developed to measure price inflation, is applied to define a population-weighted temperature trend. This method has the advantages that the trend is representative for the population distribution throughout the sample but without conflating the trend in the population distribution and the trend in the temperature. I show tha...
Article
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to climate policy have attacked the...
Article
We report the first ex post study of the economic impact of sea level rise. We apply two econometric approaches to estimate the past effects of sea level rise on the economy of the USA, viz. Barro type growth regressions adjusted for spatial patterns and a matching estimator. Unit of analysis is 3063 counties of the USA. We fit growth regressions f...
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Pycroft et al. (Environ Resour Econ 1–29, 2015) used incorrect and outdated data to study the economic impact of sea level rise. They misinterpret some of their input data, and fail to exploit the strengths of their computable general equilibrium model and previously developed methods to study impacts and adaptation.
Article
Ackerman and Munitz (2016) offer a critique of estimates of the economic impact of climate change and the social cost of carbon in general, and the FUND model in particular. I am grateful for the opportunity to reply. In this response, I note that (i) their concerns are not new; (ii) they highlight strengths of FUND rather than its weaknesses; and...
Article
Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model...
Article
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There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. The social value of these advances depends on understanding their implications for society, an arena where research support has been more modest and research progress slower. Some advances have been ma...
Article
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Cook et al's highly influential consensus study (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) finds different results than previous studies in the consensus literature. It omits tests for systematic differences between raters. Many abstracts are unaccounted for. The paper does not discuss the procedures used to ensure independence between the raters, to ens...
Article
This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some cond...
Article
I assessed five statements in the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of Working Group II (WG2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture all but ignores human agency and human ingenuity. The statement in the SPM on violent conflict...
Chapter
Full-text available
This book chapter reviews the literature on water-related CGE modeling by providing a survey that focuses on the implications of different modeling techniques of water resource.
Article
Warming of the climate system and its impacts on biophysical and human systems have been widely documented. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have also changed, but the observed increases in natural disaster losses are often thought to result solely from societal change, such as increases in exposure and vulnerability. Here we a...
Article
Most functions of economic impact assume that climate change is smooth. We here propose impact functions that have stochastic climate change as an input. These functions are identical in shape and have similar parameters as do deterministic impact functions. The mean stochastic impacts are thus similar to deterministic impacts. Welfare effects are...
Article
Full-text available
One of the climate change scenarios that have been developed for the Netherlands predicts hotter and drier summers and a substantial drop in river discharge. This might lead to water scarcity with detrimental economic and environmental effects. Among the possible adaptation responses to climate change-induced water scarcity, the re-allocation of wa...
Article
We simulate and analyze the direct and indirect economic impacts of climate change on water availability for irrigation on the economy of the Netherlands and the other EU countries which share the Rhine and Meuse river basin (France, Germany and Belgium), employing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We make use of the GTAP-W model, disti...
Chapter
Introduction and Context This chapter discusses the implications of climate change on key economic sectors and services, for example, economic activity. Other chapters discuss impacts from a physical, chemical, biological, or social perspective. Economic impacts cannot be isolated; therefore, there are a large number of cross-references to sections...
Article
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I estimate the cost of meeting the EU 2030 targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction, using statistical emulators of ten alternative models. Assuming a first-best policy implementation, I find that total and marginal costs are modest. The statistical emulators allow me to compute the risk premiums, which are small, because the EU is rich and th...
Article
Full-text available
We use FUND 3.5 to estimate the social cost of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. We show the results of a range of sensitivity analyses, focusing on the impact of carbon dioxide fertilization. Ignored in previous studies of the social cost of greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide fertilization has a posi...