Richard Rosenfeld

Richard Rosenfeld
University of Missouri - St. Louis | UMSL · Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice

Ph.D

About

132
Publications
49,035
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7,840
Citations
Citations since 2016
29 Research Items
3312 Citations
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400500
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400500
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400500
20162017201820192020202120220100200300400500
Introduction
Skills and Expertise

Publications

Publications (132)
Article
New York City experienced a dramatic reduction in crime during the 1990s and continuing through the first decade of the current century. Researchers and commentators have debated the role of policing in New York’s crime drop, including the crime impact of New York’s policy of “stop, question, and frisk” (SQF)—yet, prior research on the crime-reduct...
Technical Report
Full-text available
This report updates and supplements previous reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) on recent U.S. crime trends with additional crime data through June of 2022. The authors’ conclusions have not changed. High rates of violent crime and recent increases in property crime require immediate action from law enforcement and policymakers, inclu...
Article
Recent cross-sectional research has disclosed a positive relationship between opioid-related death rates and homicide rates. The current study adds a longitudinal dimension to this research. We estimate fixed effects panel models of the temporal relationship between race-specific homicide rates and opioid-related death rates within U.S. counties an...
Article
Full-text available
Building on research by Rosenfeld et al., citylevel random coefficients panel models reveal a significant association between inflation and homicide rates that is only partially mediated by acquisitive crime. Inflation is more strongly associated with homicide rates in more disadvantaged cities. The impact of inflation on public safety should be co...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Evaluate the relationship between the opioid epidemic and homicide rates in the United States. Methods A county-level cross-sectional analysis covering the period 1999 to 2015. The race-specific homicide rate and the race-specific opioid-related overdose death rate are regressed on demographic, social, and economic covariates. Results...
Article
The purpose of this study was to examine the possible ecological association between aggregate blood lead levels (BLL) and rates of child maltreatment. To this end, we employed an ecologic study design, analyzing results from 59,645 child BLL tests between the years 1996 and 2007, and 6,640 substantiated maltreatment investigations from 2006 to 201...
Article
Paul Cassell maintains that de-policing was a major cause of the spike in violent crime many American cities experienced during the summer of 2020. While plausible, Professor Cassell’s argument is unconvincing because it fails to explain why de-policing did not produce a rise in property crime, and it overstates the impact of policing on crime. Nor...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives The current study replicates prior national-level research on the relationship between crimes committed for monetary gain and inflation in a sample of 17 U. S. cities between 1960 and 2013. MethodsA random coefficients model is used to estimate the effects of inflation on the change in acquisitive crime over time, controlling for other i...
Article
Full-text available
Research Summary Widespread protests and demands for accountability in the wake of broadly publicized police killings of unarmed civilians coincided with the marked upturn in homicide levels, especially in large U.S. cities, in 2015. Many observers, including prominent political figures, claimed that de‐policing caused the homicide rate to rise: Fe...
Article
Full-text available
A study of more than 60,000 police traffic stops found that college-educated officers were more likely than other officers to stop drivers for less serious violations, perform consent searches, and make arrests on discretionary grounds. These results are consistent with those of prior research indicating that college-educated officers are more achi...
Article
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Objectives This study investigated the role of self-selection in an evaluation of the impact of a focused deterrence notification meeting on subsequent arrests. Methods We conducted a randomized controlled study that randomly assigned probationers and parolees to a treatment group asked to attend a focused deterrence notification meeting and a con...
Article
The study of crime trends has proceeded along two paths: 1) normal science investigations of slow-moving and tractable changes in crime rates and explanatory conditions and 2) research encounters with unexpected and abrupt changes in crime rates resulting from exogenous shocks. I draw from my research on the relationship between crime rates and cha...
Article
Rates of street crime have dropped substantially over the past several decades, but important nuances of this decline are underappreciated and the reasons for it remain unclear. We suggest that the narrow conception of change adopted within criminology has hindered the field’s capacity to develop a stronger scientific understanding of crime trends....
Article
Full-text available
Context An increasing body of research has linked the geographic distribution of lead with various indicators of criminal and antisocial behavior. Objective The current study, using data from an ongoing project related to lead exposure in St. Louis City, MO, analyzed the association between aggregate blood lead levels and specific indicators viole...
Article
Full-text available
Objective We address four outstanding empirical questions related to the “law of crime concentration” (Weisburd in Criminology 53:133–157, 2015): (1) Is the spatial concentration of crime stable over time? (2) Do the same places consistently rank among those with the highest crime counts? (3) How much crime concentration would be observed if crimes...
Article
Full-text available
It has been long recognized that cash plays a critical role in fueling street crime because of its liquidity and transactional anonymity. In this paper, we investigate whether the reduction in the circulation of cash on the streets associated with electronic benefit transfer (EBT) program implementation had an effect on crime. To address this quest...
Article
The current study builds on prior research in an analysis of the relationship between monthly violent and property crime rates in New York City census tracks and the New York City Police Department’s highly contentious stop, question, and frisk (SQF) policy. We find that higher doses of SQF are associated with small crime reductions generally and s...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods. Methods The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls i...
Article
Full-text available
Objectives To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two. Methods We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsb...
Article
Full-text available
Burgeoning research on criminal case processing has revealed persistent effects of the race and ethnicity of defendants on case outcomes up to and including imprisonment. But prior studies have devoted relatively little attention to how the characteristics of the communities in which crimes are committed affect imprisonment and antecedent legal out...
Article
Full-text available
Research Summary To reduce individual and social harms, most nations prohibit certain psychoactive drugs. Yet, prior scholarship has suggested that prohibition reduces illicit drug sellers’ access to law and thereby increases predation against and retaliation by them. No prior study, however, has directly tested that theory by comparing drug seller...
Article
This essay serves as a response to Hirschfield's (2015) article, “Lethal Policing: Making Sense of American Exceptionalism,” published in the December 2015 issue of this journal.
Article
Research Summary: Limitations in data and research on the use of firearms by police officers in the United States preclude sound understanding of the determinants of deadly force in police work. The current study addresses these limitations with detailed case attributes and a microspatial analysis of police shootings in St. Louis, MO, between 2003...
Chapter
After rising for nearly three decades, rates of street crime have declined in the United States since the early 1990s. Researchers have attributed the crime swings to changes in the economy, age structure, imprisonment, and drug markets. Recent studies also highlight the role of immigration, abortion policy, and policing. A major challenge for futu...
Article
Inflation belongs in the repertoire of economic indicators used in research on crime patterns. A resurgence of research on the relationship between economic conditions and crime has occurred in recent years, most of it showing crime increases during economic downturns and declines during recoveries. The so-called Great Recession of 2008-9 broke thi...
Article
Targeted policing has proven effective in reducing serious crime in areas where it is highly concentrated, but the enforcement mechanisms responsible for the success of so-called hot spots strategies remain poorly understood. This study evaluates the effects of a 9-month randomized controlled hot spots field experiment on firearm assaults and robbe...
Article
Full-text available
It has been long recognized that cash plays a critical role in fueling street crime due to its liquidity and transactional anonymity. In poor neighborhoods where street offenses are concentrated, a significant source of circulating cash stems from public assistance or welfare payments. In the 1990s, the Federal government mandated individual states...
Book
In the current economic climate, this book could not be more timely. One of the world's leading experts explores the connections between crime and economic conditions, linking the formal economy to the operation of illegal markets and both, in turn, to changes in the forms and levels of crime over time. The book offers a readable, interesting and a...
Article
Research on race effects in police traffic stops is theoretically underdeveloped. In this study, we derive propositions from Donald Black's theory of law to explain the interaction effects of officer and driver race on searches in traffic stops in St. Louis, Missouri. Our citywide results and those for stops in predominantly White communities are g...
Chapter
Full-text available
This chapter examines drug dealing and gang membership, and to a lesser extent sex offending and homicide, with respect to age of onset and desistance, correlates and causes, and offense specialization and persistence during the transition from adolescence into young adulthood. Prior studies and research indicate that initiation of criminal activit...
Article
Full-text available
Prior research on police searches of motorists has consistently found that Black drivers are more likely to be searched than White drivers. The authors argue that race differences in police searches depend on the driver’s age. In logistic regression and propensity-score matching analyses of St. Louis police traffic stops, the authors find that youn...
Article
This article considers cultural meanings, empirical patterns, theoretical explanations, and social responses connected with homicide and aggravated assault. It addresses homicide and aggravated assault trends in the United States over the past few decades and cross-national comparisons of homicide and assault. It assesses that rate of aggravated as...
Chapter
A dramatic drop in violent and property crime occurred in the USA during the 1990s, leading one analyst to herald the reduction ‘the great American crime decline’ (Zimring 2006a). Whether crime rates were falling elsewhere in the world, and for the same reasons, are questions that have been largely absent from academic and public commentary in the...
Article
Full-text available
In recent years, Hispanic immigration to the United States has become a politically charged public issue, with significant consequences for immigration policies, communities, individual immigrants, and the U.S. residents who resemble them in language, customs, and appearance. We examine one possible collateral consequence of the fear and tension su...
Article
Microanalysis holds sway over macroanalysis in contemporary criminology. All of criminology would be better off if greater attention were devoted to the big picture—the relationship between crime and the interplay of institutions in the social systems of whole societies. Microlevel researchers often assume that the reduction of individual criminal...
Article
From the vantage point of criminology, one of sociology's main export subject areas, the present and future of sociology appear a good deal more promising than John Holmwood's essay on the discipline's misfortune would suggest. Sociology remains in high demand by students and faculty hiring remains strong, even in its more critical sub-fields, such...
Article
This essay reviews three books as they document and explain the 1990s crime decline: Alfred Blumstein and Joel Wallman, eds., (2006) The Crime Drop in America; Arthur S. Goldberger and Richard Rosenfeld, eds., (2008) Understanding Crime Patterns: Workshop Report; and Franklin E. Zimring (2007), The Great American Crime Decline. It presents the empi...
Article
Influential statements on recent American crime reductions maintain that the crime drop was confined to the USA. Yet other research has revealed comparable crime decreases in Europe. We suggest that the USA and European crime declines occurred in tandem because they were both brought about by upturns in the economy. In light of US research showing...
Article
A question that emerges from recent research on the relationship between economic conditions and street crimes committed for monetary gain concerns the effect of changing economic conditions on violent crime. I propose that the economy stimulates violent crime indirectly through its effect on acquisitive crime. This hypothesis is evaluated in fixed...
Chapter
Criminologists have formulated a wide range of explanations for the causes of crime, as reflected in several chapters of this volume. One useful means for classifying these explanations is according to their primary level of analysis. Micro-level theories direct attention to characteristics of individuals (e.g., biological, psychological, and socia...
Article
To identify the frequency and quality of harms and adverse events reporting in otolaryngology journals. A literature review. Four major otolaryngology journals from 2006 and 1996 were reviewed. Clinical research studies offering therapeutic recommendations were evaluated for frequency and quality of harms and adverse events reporting. Of 1,835 tota...
Article
This paper evaluates the Police Executive Research Forum's (PERF) recent warnings of a "gathering storm" of criminal violence in the United States. We argue that increases in violent crime during 2005 and 2006 were the expected result of year-to-year changes in the economy and imprisonment. Our argument is supported by an analysis of changes in hom...
Article
Full-text available
A limited but accumulating body of research and theoretical commentary offers support for core claims of the “institutional-anomie theory” of crime (IAT) and points to areas needing further development. In this paper, which focuses on violent crime, we clarify the concept of social institutions, elaborate the cultural component of IAT, derive impli...
Article
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Although illicit drug activity occurs within local communities, past quantitative research on drug markets and violent crime in the United States has been conducted mainly at the city level. The authors use neighborhood-level data from the city of Miami to test hypotheses regarding the effect of drug activity and traditional indicators of social di...
Article
This collection of essays grew out of two interdisciplinary conferences held in Sweden in 1992 on the integration of individual and social levels of explanation in criminology. The work begun at the conferences continued under the auspices of the international research network "Social Context of Pathways in Crime" (http://www.scopic.ac.uk/) based a...
Article
The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
Article
Despite its long history in criminology, research on the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and rates of common crime remains limited. That is in part because many analysts doubt that any systematic relationship exists and in part because of disagreement with regard to the validity of the indicators typically used to measure economic con...
Article
Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order-maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study inves...
Article
Past research suggests that Americans arm themselves when they do not trust one another. We reexamine the relationship between social trust and firearm prevalence with improved data and methods. We also control for conditions, including area homicide rates, that other research showed to be related to both social trust and firearm prevalence. We use...
Article
The National Research Council’s report on evaluating anticrime programs contains sensible suggestions for improving evaluation research in criminal justice but neglects the important role of substantive theory in linking evaluations of anticrime initiatives to variation in crime rates across time and place. A working knowledge of crime rates is ess...
Article
This study probes the interconnections among distrust of government, the historical context, and public support for the death penalty in the United States with survey data for area-identified samples of white and black respondents. Multilevel statistical analyses indicate contrary effects of government distrust on support for the death penalty for...
Article
Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although th...
Article
Trends in aggravated assaults recorded by the police and those reported in victim surveys diverge over time in the United States. Police-recorded assaults trend upward during the 1980s and flatten in the 1990s, whereas survey-estimated assaults are flat during the 1980s and decline during the 1990s. Previous research has attributed the divergence b...
Article
Full-text available
In this prospective study, the authors predicted violence and homicide in 3 representative school samples (N = 1,517). Participants were part of a longitudinal, multiple cohort study on the development of delinquency in boys from late childhood to early adulthood in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Thirty-three participants were convicted of homicide, 193...
Article
Police officials across the United States often claimed credit for crime reductions during the 1990s. In this article, we examine homicide trends in three cities that mounted widely publicized policing interventions during the 1990s: Boston's Operation Ceasefire, New York's Compstat, and Richmond, Virginia's Project Exile. Applying growth-curve ana...
Chapter
Full-text available
The quadrupling of the prison population since the 1970s and the precipitous drop in crime rates beginning in the early 1990s are two of the most striking recent trends in crime and punishment in the United States (see Blumstein and Wallman 2000; Hughes and Wilson 2003). The possible connection between the growth in imprisonment and the decline in...
Article
This article extends the study of race and ethnicity and violence by examining ethnic differences in firearm use, injury, and lethality in assaultive violence (homicide and aggravated assault) in the multiethnic city of Miami. Specifically, the article compares Latinos relative to non-Latino Blacks and non-Latino Whites. Controlling for the effects...
Article
Recent evidence suggests that oral antibiotics may not be required in all children with acute otitis media (AOM). We determined whether parents and pediatricians were aware of and comfortable with a policy of selective use of antibiotics for AOM. Descriptive survey. Suburban academic emergency department, urgent care center, and private pediatric...
Article
There is a prediction implicit in any discussion of age structure and crime. It is that the generation that made the crime wave can break it, too. Landon Y. Jones, Great Expectations: America and the Baby Boom Generation adult homicide rates have fallen continuously for over twenty years. Although it has not gone completely unnoticed, the decline i...
Article
Full-text available
Robert Putnam comprehensively analyzes the multidimensional nature of social capital and makes a persuasive argument for its relevance to various community social problems, including violent crime. However, systematic empirical evaluations of the links between the multiple dimensions of social capital and violence are limited by the lack of adequat...
Article
Full-text available
A small but growing body of research has produced several consistent findings regarding race and ethnic differences in traffic stops, searches, and arrests. However, prior research has not adequately addressed the potential bias associated with the use of residential population data to estimate the racial composition of the drivers in local areas....
Article
Rates of homicide involving intimate partners have declined substantially over the past 25 years in the United States, while public awareness of and policy responses to domestic violence have grown. To what extent has the social response to domestic violence contributed to the decline in intimate-partner homicide? We evaluate the relationship betwe...
Article
Drawing from interviews with 20 active street offenders, we explore the social meaning and consequences of snitching (the exchange of incriminating information for reward or leniency). The snitch violates the code of the street and is universally despised by street criminals. Although few of our respondents reported that they had or would provide i...
Article
Full-text available
This research examines the effects of social context on support for the death penalty using individual-level data from the 1974-98 General Social Survey (GSS), which have been linked with aggregate-level data on homicide rates and sociodemographic, political, and economic characteristics. Consistent with instrumental, social threat, and constructio...
Article
Full-text available
Many and probably most persons sentenced to prison are not good candidates for alternative sentences, either because they pose a danger to public safety or because they committed a crime for which a prison sentence is mandatory under current statutes. However, some are much better candidates than others, and it is possible to reduce the number of M...
Article
Skyrocketing violent crime rates obsessed Americans for decades. Crime rates have now been dropping for 10 years. What has happened, and how can we learn from it?
Article
Understanding the complex relationship between immigration and crime was once a core concern of American sociology. Yet the extensive post-1965 wave of immigration to the United States has done little to rekindle scholarly interest in this topic, even as politicians and other public figures advocate public policies to restrict immigration as a mean...
Article
Understanding the complex relationship between immigration and crime was once a core concern of American sociology. Yet the extensive post-1965 wave of immigration to the United States has done little to rekindle scholarly interest in this topic, even as politicians and other public figures advocate public policies to restrict immigration as a mean...
Article
Full-text available
Despite recent theoretical attention to “social capital” and its impact on a range of public problems, including crime, few studies have evaluated the relationship between crime rates and levels of social capital across populations. That research gap is due, in part, to the absence of macro-level empirical indicators of social capital. In this arti...

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