Richard Moss

• University of Maryland, College Park

This chapter provides an overview of the major themes, findings, and recommendations from NPCC4. It presents summary statements from each chapter of the assessment which identify salient and pressing issues raised and provides recommendations for future research and for enhancement of climate resiliency. The chapter also outlines a set of broader r...

This Introduction to NPCC4 provides an overview of the first three NPCC Reports and contextualizes NPCC4's deliberate decision to address justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion in its collective work and in its own practices, procedures, and methods of assessment. Next, it summarizes the assessment process, including greater emphasis on sustaine...

This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological‐infrastructure dimensions of New York City (NYC) and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate‐adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide a...

Climate impacts increasingly unfold in interlinked systems of people, nature, and infrastructure. The cascading consequences are revealing sometimes surprising connections across sectors and regions, and prospects for climate responses also depend on complex, difficult‐to‐understand interactions. In this commentary, we build on the innovations of t...

This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological-infrastructure dimensions of New York City and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate-adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide an asse...

Knowledge for just and effective planned relocation will emerge from entangled action, learning, and capacity building

In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening bi-weekly discussions, called the Rapid Research and Assessment (RRA) Series, between City staff and external experts in science, policy, design, engineering, communications, and planning. The goal was to rapidly develop authoritative, actionable inform...

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth syst...

Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, howeve...

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the primary future climate projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations....

What makes knowledge relevant to environmental sustainability actionable, and how can its societal impacts be evaluated? Scholars and practitioners have increasingly advocated that the traditional linear model of knowledge production, with its unidirectional flow of information from researchers to policy-makers, be replaced by a new approach in whi...

Co-production is an increasingly popular approach for environmental and sustainability research, but what is actually produced through its practice remains understudied. This paper reviews recent examples of co-produced research alongside current theorization on the topic. Focusing on the area of climate change adaptation, we find that co-produced...

As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialog...

A new report identifies missing support that is slowing progress in limiting and adapting to climate change. The Science for Climate Action Network aims to provide it.

Researchers, stakeholders and funding organizations have embraced co-production of knowledge to solve sustainability problems. Research focusing on the practice of co-production can help us understand what works in what contexts and how to avoid potentially undesirable outcomes.

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three‐tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity a...

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity a...

The web link listed in Footnote 11 is incorrect. The correct link is www.federalregister.gov/documents/2015/07/31/2015-18781/establishment-of-theadvisory- committee-for-the-sustained-nationalclimate-assessment-and.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, a...

This article focuses on the implications for the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) of diversifying information needs to support climate change risk management. It describes how the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) evolved to begin to narrow the gap between information from climate and impact scientists and “intermediaries” (individual...

The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was als...

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-mode...

The leaders and authors of the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) developed new modes of engaging academia, the private sector, government agencies and civil society to support their needs for usable, rigorous, and timely information and better connect science and decision-making. A strategic vision for assessment activities into the futur...

Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emergi...

Five new scenarios, or Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), have been developed, spanning a range of challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4), "Inequality" or "A Road Divided," is one of these scenarios, characterized by low challenges to mitigation and high challenges to adaptation. We descr...

Opportunities for Integration of Remote Sensing, Integrated Assessment, and Adaptation; Aspen, Colorado, 11–16 October 2015

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide mu...

Global Global environmental changes, such as climate change, result from the interaction of human and natural systems. Understanding these changes and options for addressing them requires research in the physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as engineering and other applied fields. In this essay, the authors provide their personal p...

The leaders and authors of the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) developed new modes of engaging academia, the private sector, government agencies and civil society to support their needs for usable, rigorous, and timely information and better connect science and decision-making. A strategic vision for assessment activities into the futur...

The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was als...

This article focuses on the implications for the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) of diversifying information needs to support climate change risk management. It describes how the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) evolved to begin to narrow the gap between information from climate and impact scientists and “intermediaries” (individual...

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAATechnical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other...

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other...

Abstract In this paper, an IAM (integrated assessment model) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technolog...

This presentation will discuss current and future efforts to balance the need for decision support tools and assessments that meet user needs with assessments that are scientifically interesting. Techniques such as deliberative modeling, scenario planning, and conversations about confidence and uncertainty can be used to help scientists and users c...

An interdisciplinary approach to global change research is required for scientific advances that are both fundamental and relevant to real-world problems. The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI), under the leadership of director John Katzenberger, has provided global leadership for such interdisciplinary science over the past 25 years. From its fi...

Socio-Cultural Analysis (SCA) has evolved rapidly over the past decade as conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have forced the DOD to reappraise the techniques used to collect information about the populations in conflict zones. As these two major conflicts wind down, the DOD must recognize that SCA must evolve again due the changing responsibilities...

The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agricultu...

Since 1995, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams. Through CMIP, climate modelers and scientists from around the world have analyzed and compared state-of-the-art climate model simulations to gain insights into the processes, mechanisms, and consequ...

Activities are already underway within the development community to improve climate-change adaptation decision making. In these and related efforts, a focus on building resilience is an important objective, one that resonates with development objectives. Compiling and applying indicators will help development practitioners consider resilience in pr...

The United States is the largest producer of social science publications on global environmental change, which has been studied by United States social scientists for more than a century. The emergence of climate change as a global issue during the 1990s has also led to a growing body of social science (and multidisciplinary) analysis and assessmen...

Adaptation requires science that analyzes decisions, identifies vulnerabilities, improves foresight, and develops options.

Research efforts for effectively and consistently monitoring terrestrial carbon are increasing in number. As such, there is a need to define carbon monitoring and how it relates to carbon cycle science and carbon management. There is also a need to identify capabilities of a carbon monitoring system and the system components needed to develop the c...

We explore the implications of alternative pathways for human population and economic development for the role of Asia in both reference, no-climate-policy, scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different reference scenarios, which we refer to as Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSPs) and four different leve...

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the int...

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that t...

The newly established National Research Council Board on Environmental Change and Society explores insights and research frontiers for understanding coupled human-environment systems. Social science research contributes to global environmental risk management by projecting the effect of alternative human choices. It helps to anticipate vulnerabilit...

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario "thread" through the different climate research communities (climate change - vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a ma...

The article describes challenges to comparative risk assessment, a key approach for managing uncertainty in decision making, across diverse threats such as terrorism and climate change and argues new approaches will be particularly important in addressing decisions related to sustainability.

Society has difficult decisions to make about how best to allocate its resources to ensure future sustainability. Risk assessment can be a valuable tool: it has long been used to support decisions to address environmental problems. But in a time when the risks to sustainability range from climate change to terrorism, applying risk assessment to sus...

Dr. Moss will review emerging delivery opportunities for climate change science communication, user engagement, and policy-maker uptake through more flexible participatory scenarios enabled by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to be used for the first time in the IPCC 5th Assessment and upcoming US National Climate Assessment. He dis...

It is usually necessary to apply incomplete and uncertain information to inform policy and decision making, creating the need to characterize the state of knowledge and identify when more certain information may be available. After all, some information is better than none and conversely, even perfect information is of no use if it is available onl...

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integr...

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radia...

This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from the Expert Meeting on New Scenarios in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19- 21 September 2007. This report is the culmination of the combined efforts of the New Scenarios Steering Committee, an author team composed primarily of members of the research community, and numerous other meetin...

This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from the Expert Meeting on New Scenarios held in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19-21 September 2007. It is the culmination of the combined efforts of the New Scenarios Steering Committee, an author team composed primarily of members of the research community, and numerous other meeting par...

Actors within societies must cope with climate variability all the time, for example, with the aftermath of a severe storm, a persistent drought, severe flooding or coastal erosion from storm-induced sea-level surges. Understanding the capacity to respond to these types of experiences is important in its own right, and also provides a baseline agai...

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 sc...

The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmen...

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines...