Richard Fry

Swansea University | SWAN · Swansea University Medical School

Reducing the burden of falls and fall-related admissions to hospital and care homes is an important policy area. Falls cause significant injury leading to a reduced quality of life. We wanted to know if the environment around people’s homes changes the risk of falls for older people in Wales. We linked routinely collected, anonymised health data on...

Objectives Youth obesity has increased substantially in recent decades; however, the potential role of the built environment in mitigating these trends is unclear. This study examines whether more walkable neighbourhoods are associated with lower levels of overweight/obesity for adolescents compared to less walkable neighbourhoods, after considerin...

Objectives Active travel to school (ATS), such as walking and cycling, not only reduces carbon emissions and air pollution but also contributes to a myriad of health benefits. Understanding the ‘potential’ for ATS across Wales is poorly understood yet vital to inform policy and practice aimed at increasing ATS. Methods Using geospatial techniques,...

Background Routine monitoring of Body Mass Index (BMI) in general practice, and via national surveillance programmes, is essential for the identification, prevention, and management of low or excess childhood weight. We examined and compared the presence and representativeness of children and young people’s (CYPs) BMI recorded in two routinely coll...

Background Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality...

Background: Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortali...

Transactional theory and the coercive family process model have illustrated how the parent-child relationship is reciprocal. Emerging research using advanced statistical methods has examined these theories, but further investigations are necessary. In this study, we utilised linked health data on maternal mental health disorders and explored their...

Objectives: We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection trends, risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination uptake among school staff, students and their household members in Wales, UK. Design: Seven-day average of SARS-CoV-2 infections and polymerase chain reaction tests per 1000 people daily, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 vaccination upt...

Air pollution (AP) is a significant environmental risk to human health. Historically, the impact of AP exposure has focused upon the physical health effects, yet the implications of AP on mental health have received limited attention. Despite this, recent research has highlighted emerging evidence supporting a possible aetiological link. The purpos...

The uptake of COVID-19 vaccination in Wales is high at a population level but many inequalities exist. Household composition may be an important factor in COVID-19 vaccination uptake due to the practical, social, and psychological implications associated with different living arrangements. In this study, the role of household composition in the upt...

Introduction: Gypsies and Travellers have poorer physical and mental health than the general population, but little is known about mental health service use by Gypsy and Traveller children and young people. Finding this group in routine electronic health data is challenging, due to limited recording of ethnicity. We assessed the feasibility of usi...

Background dementia may increase care home residents’ risk of COVID-19, but there is a lack of evidence on this effect and on interactions with individual and care home-level factors. Methods we created a national cross-sectional retrospective cohort of care home residents in Wales for 1 September to 31 December 2020. Risk factors were analysed us...

Introduction Ethnicity information is recorded routinely in electronic health records (EHRs); however, to date, there is no national standard or framework for harmonisation of the existing records. Methods and analysis The national ethnicity-spine uses anonymised individual-level population-scale ethnicity data from 26 EHR available through the Sec...

Introduction: Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are two of the most significant modifiable risk factors for the prevention of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Yet, a third of children in Wales and Australia are overweight or obese, and only 20% of UK and Australian children are sufficiently active. The purpose of the Built Environments An...

There is a need for better understanding of the risk of thrombocytopenic, haemorrhagic, thromboembolic disorders following first, second and booster vaccination doses and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Self-controlled cases series analysis of 2.1 million linked patient records in Wales between 7th December 2020 and 31st December 2021. Outcomes we...

Objectives Examine if pre-COVID-19 pandemic (prior March 2020) health-related behaviours during primary school are associated with (1) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and (2) testing positive between 1 March 2020 and 31 August 2021. Design Retrospective cohort study using an online cohort survey (January 2018 to February 2020) linked with routine PCR...

Objectives In Wales almost a quarter of adults and 1 in 8 reception age children are obese. Linked data is a key tool to understanding the role of the built environment on obesity rates and is an important part of developing strategies to combat the obesity epidemic in Wales. ApproachWe set out to develop an analytical platform for generating evide...

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed a spotlight on existing and enduring health inequalities experienced by different ethnic groups. There has been a longstanding call to generate and improve the use of ethnicity data available across different data sources, in order to improve our understanding of health risks, behaviours and outcomes. We used multip...

Objectives Research on bi-directional associations between self-reported caregiver mental health and child development is mixed. Through linkage of a cohort study and primary care data, we examine whether maternal mental health diagnoses, treatment and symptoms are bi-directionally associated with child development, namely emotional and conduct pro...

Objectives Physical inactivity directly contributes to the global issue of obesity. Small-scale garden-based interventions have positively impacted on children’s physical activity levels. However, no studies have objectively measured household gardens and assessed associations with childhood obesity on a population scale. We linked garden measures...

Objectives Mental wellbeing can deteriorate throughout adolescence; females and children from low-income families more likely to experience mental health conditions. Views of greenspace from home positively impact cognition, but links with wellbeing has not been explored in children. We linked environment and survey data for 14 year olds in Wales,...

ObjectivesA defining feature of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries were the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected and the difficulty in preventing the introduction and subsequent spread of infection. ApproachUtilising linked data in the SAIL Databank we set out to develop a linked data platform as part of the ‘One Wales’ app...

Purpose: Understanding which physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior correlates cluster in children is important, particularly in the home, where children spend significant time. Therefore, this study aimed to assess clustering of physical and social activity-related factors at home, and whether these clusters are related to home-based sitti...

Background falls are common in older people, but associations between falls, dementia and frailty are relatively unknown. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on falls admissions has not been studied. Aim to investigate the impact of dementia, frailty, deprivation, previous falls and the differences between years for falls resulting in an emergency...

Objectives To better understand the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among healthcare workers, leading to recommendations for the prioritisation of personal protective equipment, testing, training and vaccination. Design Observational, longitudinal, national cohort study. Setting Our cohort were secon...

Background: Spatiotemporal modelling techniques allow one to predict injury across time and space. However, such methods have been underutilised in injury studies. This study demonstrates the use of statistical spatiotemporal modelling in identifying areas of significantly high injury risk, and areas witnessing significantly increasing risk over t...

Background COVID-19 vaccinations have been prioritised for high risk individuals. Aim Determine individual-level risk factors for care home residents testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Study design Longitudinal observational cohort study using individual-level linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank. Setting Four...

Background The burden of traumatic injury among workers in agriculture is substantial. Surveillance can inform injury prevention efforts to reduce farmworkers' risk. We posited that the regional trauma registry can provide surveillance for agricultural injury requiring trauma-center care. Methods The Northeast Texas regional trauma registry was qu...

Background A defining feature of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries was the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected, and the difficulty preventing introduction and subsequent spread of infection. Management of risk in care homes requires good evidence on the most important transmission pathways. One hypothesised route at the s...

Introduction: School-based COVID-19 mitigation strategies have greatly impacted the primary school day (children aged 3-11) including: wearing face coverings, two metre distancing, no mixing of children, and no breakfast clubs or extra-curricular activities. This study examines these mitigation measures and association with COVID-19 infection, res...

RATIONALE Previous studies indicate active living environments (ALEs) are associated with higher physical activity levels across different geographic contexts, and could lead to reductions in hospital burden. Both Wales UK and Canada have advanced data infrastructure that allows record linkage between survey data and administrative health informati...

Objectives Examine if prior health-related behaviours during primary school are associated with being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and testing positive during adolescence. Design Retrospective cohort study using an online cohort survey (1 April 2014 to 28 February 2020) linked to routine PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results (1 March 2020 to 31 August 2021) Setti...

Background While population estimates suggest high vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection, the protection for health care workers, who are at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure, is less understood. Methods We conducted a national cohort study of health care workers in Wales (UK) from 7 December 2020 to 30 September 2021. We examined up...

Introduction Post-discharge healthcare needs are complex and persistent for people following major trauma. A number of geographic barriers to accessing healthcare exist, particularly for people in regional areas. The aim of this study was to explore regional variation in the distances travelled to access health services and identify patterns of hea...

Background Deprivation can impact the access to health interventions in publicly funded health systems where cost is not the dominant barrier. In this study we examined whether deprivation affected the access to disease modifying therapies (DMTs) for multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods All English adults on the UK MS register with relapsing remitting...

Background: Spatiotemporal modelling techniques allow one to predict injury across time and space. However, such methods have been underutilised in injury studies. This study demonstrates the use of statistical spatiotemporal modelling in identifying areas of significantly high injury risk, and areas witnessing significantly increasing risk over ti...

Background vaccinations for COVID-19 have been prioritised for older people living in care homes. However, vaccination trials included limited numbers of older people. Aim we aimed to study infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 for older care home residents following vaccination and identify factors associated with increased risk of infection. Study Desi...

Background Growing cross-sectional evidence links access to green-blue spaces with mental health benefits, but studies at an individual level and at a national population scale are scarce. This gap can be addressed through the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, which allows household-level green-blue spaces access and exposure d...

Background Evidence that greenspaces are related to mental health and wellbeing mostly relies on residential exposure and few studies have considered actual use. We aimed to link the National Survey for Wales (NSW) to environmental metrics to determine whether there is an association between increased residential exposure to greenspace and subjecti...

Background falls are common in older people, but evidence for the effectiveness of preventative home adaptations is limited. Aim determine whether a national home adaptation service, Care&Repair Cymru (C&RC), identified individuals at risk of falls occurring at home and reduced the likelihood of falls. Study Design retrospective longitudinal cont...

This study used linear regression analyses to investigate the influence of parent-reported home-specific social and individual factors on: (i) 235 children's home-based objectively measured overall sitting time, breaks in sitting, and PA, and; (ii) the home physical environment via an audit. Parental importance assigned to active play for children...

Objectives: Determine individual level risk factors for care home residents testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Study Design: Longitudinal observational cohort study using individual-level linked data. Setting: Care home residents in Wales (United Kingdom) between 1st September 2020 and 1st May 2021. Participants: 14,786 older care home residents (age...

Introduction School-based COVID-19 mitigation strategies have greatly impacted the primary school day (children aged 3-11) including: wearing face coverings, 2-metre distancing, no mixing of children, and no breakfast clubs or extra-curricular activities. This study examines these mitigation methods and association with COVID-19 infection, respirat...

Background Children growing up in poverty are less likely to achieve in school and more likely to experience mental health problems. This study examined factors in the local area that can help a child overcome the negative impact of poverty. Method This retrospective cohort study included 159,131 children who lived in Wales and completed their age...

Background Better understanding of the role that children and school staff play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to guide policy development on controlling infection while minimising disruption to children’s education and well-being. Methods Our national e-cohort (n=464531) study used anonymised linked data for pupils, staff and asso...

Background Falls in older people commonly occur at home. Home assessment and modification (HAM) interventions can be effective in reducing falls; however, there are some concerns over the validity of evaluation findings. Routinely collected data could improve the quality of HAM evaluations and strengthen their evidence base. Objective The aim of th...

The Emergency Medical Retrieval and Transfer Service for Wales launched in 2015. This service delivers senior pre‐hospital doctors and advanced critical care practitioners to the scene of time‐critical life‐ and limb‐threatening incidents to provide advanced decision‐making and pre‐hospital clinical care. The impact of the service on 30‐day mortali...

Background Physical housing and household composition have an important role in the lives of individuals and drive health and social outcomes, and inequalities. Most methods to understand housing composition are based on survey or census data, and there is currently no reproducible methodology for creating population-level household composition mea...

Background: Vaccinations for COVID-19 have been prioritised for older people living in care homes. However, vaccination trials included limited numbers of older people. Aim: We aimed to study infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 for older care home residents following vaccination and identify factors associated with increased risk of infection. Study Desi...

Background A defining feature of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries was the tragic extent to which care home residents were affected, and the difficulty preventing introduction and subsequent spread of infection. Management of risk in care homes requires good evidence on the most important transmission pathways. One hypothesised route at the s...

Background: Better understanding of the role that children and school staff play in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to guide policy development on controlling infection whilst minimising disruption to children's education and wellbeing. Methods: Our national e-cohort (n=500,779) study used anonymised linked data for pupils, staff and as...

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for robust data linkage systems and methods for identifying outbreaks of disease in near real-time. Objectives The primary objective of this study was to develop a real-time geospatial surveillance system to monitor the spread of COVID-19 across the UK. Methods Using self-reported app data...

Introduction Multimorbidity is widely recognised as the presence of two or more concurrent long-term conditions, yet remains a poorly understood global issue despite increasing in prevalence. We have created the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort (WMC) to provide an accessible research ready data asset to further the understanding of multimorbidity. Our...

Background Physical housing and household composition have an important role in the lives of individuals and drive health and social outcomes, and inequalities. Most methods to understand housing composition are based on survey or census data, and there is currently no reproducible methodology for creating population-level household composition mea...

IntroductionAround a third of people aged 65+, and around half of people aged 80+ fall at least once a year in the United Kingdom. Homes may be adapted to try to prevent falls, but evidence on the effectiveness of home adaptations is limited. Objectives and ApproachOur objective was to determine if proactive (Care&Repair service) and reactive (rapi...

Introduction Representing patient-registered addresses as pseudonymised Unique Property Reference Numbers (UPRNs) enables linkage of environmental and household information to electronic health records (EHRs). However, the accuracy and potential biases in address-matching algorithm results applied to patient addresses is unknown. Objectives and Ap...

Introduction Research involving care homes is often difficult due to a lack of data and ethical issues. Wales (United Kingdom) contains approximately 1.3million residences, of these 717 are officially recorded as care homes for older people. Objectives and Approach Our objective was to develop a predictive methodology for identifying care homes in...

Introduction Green and blue spaces (GBS), such as parks, woodlands, rivers, and beaches, are thought to be important for mental health and wellbeing. Our longitudinal cohort contains objective household-level environment data linked at the invidual level to routinely recorded mental health data, augmented with cross sectional self-reported health b...

Introduction Multi-morbidity is a widely recognised but poorly understood global issue that appears to be increasing in prevalence, according to the UK’s Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) report in 2018. Disease clustering, their determinants and consequences are poorly researched. Better understanding would help drive prevention and improved clini...

Introduction The emergence of the novel respiratory SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic have required rapid assimilation of population-level data to understand and control the spread of infection in the general and vulnerable populations. Rapid analyses are needed to inform policy development and target interventions to at-risk groups to pr...

BACKGROUND Falls in older people commonly occur at home. Home adaption modifications (HAM) can be effective in reducing falls, but there is some concern over the validity of findings. Routinely collected data could improve the quality of HAM evaluations and strengthen their evidence base. OBJECTIVE To review the evidence of the use of routinely co...

Background: Mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including ad...

Background: home advice and modification interventions aim to promote independent living for those living in the community, but quantitative evidence of their effectiveness is limited. Aim: assess the risk of care home admissions for people with different frailty levels receiving home advice and modification interventions against a control group...

Background Multi-morbidity is a growing challenge globally. New insights and approaches into the patterns of, and contributing factors to, multi-morbidity, using large routinely-collected patient data resources, are current research priorities. There is evidence that individuals who live with people with a long-term condition are at increased risk...

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for robust data linkage systems and methods for identifying outbreaks of disease in near real-time. Using self-reported app data and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank, we demonstrate the use of sophisticated spatial modelling for near-real-time prediction of COVID-19 prevalence...

Built environments have been cited as important facilitators of activity and research using geographic information systems (GIS) has emerged as a novel approach in exploring environmental determinants. The Active Children Through Individual Vouchers Evaluation Project used GIS to conduct a cross-sectional analysis of how teenager’s (aged 13–14) env...

Background: Mortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages, and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing. Care...