Richard Fox

Butterfly Conservation UK · Evidence

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the l...

Biodiversity conservation is fundamentally linked to human values, attitudes, and behaviours. Nature connectedness, the strength of a person's relationship with nature, is an important determinant of pro-nature actions, and therefore vital for counteracting biodiversity loss. Citizen science may improve nature connectedness, though such outcomes ar...

Insect declines are being reported worldwide and private, residential gardens could provide refugia for these species under increasing land use change. Interest in wildlife-friendly gardening has increased, but many management recommendations lack a scientific evidence-base. We used a large citizen science scheme, the Garden Butterfly Survey (GBS),...

Citizen-science data are increasingly used to contribute to our understanding of biodiversity change, but analysing such data requires suitable statistical methods, often to deal with forms of bias. We develop a new approach for modelling data from a snapshot, mass-participation citizen-science scheme for UK butterflies, the Big Butterfly Count (BB...

Around the world, the number of species establishing outside of their native range has and continues to increase rapidly. Some of these non‐native species are invasive and can cause negative environmental, economic, and social impacts, including declines in native biodiversity. Species can become established either through natural dispersal or with...

Biodiversity monitoring schemes periodically measure species' abundances and distributions at a sample of sites to understand how they have changed over time. Often, the aim is to infer change in an average sense across some wider landscape. Inference to the wider landscape is simple if the species' abundances and distributions are similar at sampl...

Climate change has led to changes in the phenology of Lepidoptera species. While phenological shifts have been previously measured for moth species in England and Wales, the drivers of these shifts are not well known. Here, we use data from the National Moth Recording Scheme and the Garden Moth Scheme to investigate the drivers of phenology in 149...

Climate change and habitat loss present serious threats to nature. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data, the potential for land-use change and baseline land-use conditions to interact with a changing climate to affect biodiversity remains largely unknown. Here, we use historical land use, climate data and species observation data to inves...

Annual results for 2022 from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. Report published by Butterfly Conservation, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Trust for Ornithology and Joint Nature Conservation Committee.

Species' distributions are moving polewards in response to climate change, and although range expansions of relatively warm-adapted species are widely reported, reports of range retractions in cool-adapted species are less common. Here, we analysed species' distribution shifts for 76 cool-adapted moths in Great Britain using citizen science occurre...

An assessment of the state of butterflies in the UK. The report is the latest in a series that use long running monitoring and distributional data in the UK.

Trait-based approaches are advocated for their ability to predict population declines in data-deficient taxa and regions, potentially benefiting biodiversity conservation. Several reviews have, however, highlighted inconsistent results between traits studies, sometimes even for the same taxonomic group and biogeographical region. Traits studies of...

The dataset comprises one 1km habitat suitability surface for each of 5073 species of mammal, bryophyte, vascular plant, lichen, insect and non-insect invertebrate. The outputs are provided as .asc files denoting habitat suitability at a spatial resolution of 1km. The map projection is OSGB 1936 (EPSG:27700). The habitat suitability surfaces repres...

Regular reassessment of extinction risk is critical to prioritise conservation action during the current period of rapid, anthropogenic biodiversity change. Butterflies are a flagship group for insect monitoring and conservation, as they are highly visible, well studied and exhibit rapid responses to environmental change. Here, we use systematic po...

Butterflies and moths, collectively Lepidoptera, are integral components of ecosystems, providing key services such as pollination and a prey resource for vertebrate and invertebrate predators. Lepidoptera are a relatively well studied group of invertebrates. In Great Britain and Ireland numerous citizen science projects provide data on changes in...

Annual results for 2021 from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. Published by Butterfly Conservation, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Trust for Ornithology and Joint Nature Conservation Committee

Reported declines in insect populations have sparked global concern, with artificial light at night (ALAN) identified as a potential contributing factor. Despite strong evidence that lighting disrupts a range of insect behaviors, the empirical evidence that ALAN diminishes wild insect abundance is limited. Using a matched-pairs design, we found tha...

1. The description of how biological information is compiled over time is essential to detect temporal biases in biodiversity data that could directly influence the utility, comparability, and reliability of ecological and biogeographical studies. 2. We explore trends in species recording over time using one of the most spatially and temporally com...

Much recent scientific, media and public attention has focussed on the evidence for and consequences of declines in insect biodiversity. Reliable, complete inventories can be used to estimate insect trends accurately, but incomplete data may distort assessments of biodiversity change. Thus, it is essential to understand the completeness of insect i...

Moths are the most taxonomically and ecologically diverse insect taxon for which there exist considerable time-series abundance data. There is an alarming record of decreases in moth abundance and diversity from across Europe, with rates varying markedly among and within regions. Recent reports from Costa Rica reveal steep cross-lineage declines of...

Annual results for 2020 from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme. Published by Butterfly Conservation, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Trust for Ornithology and Joint Nature Conservation Committee.

1. Insects have emerged as causes célèbres for widespread concern about human effects on global biodiversity. Here, we consider how insects provide opportunities both to understand the ecological effects of global change and to enhance environmental conservation. 2. Despite a limited time frame and geographic extent of quantitative evidence, recen...

1. The night-time environment is increasingly being lit, often by broad-spectrum lighting, and there is growing evidence that artificial light at night (ALAN) has consequences for ecosystems, potentially contributing to declines in insect populations. 2. Moths are species-rich, sensitive to ALAN, and have undergone declines in Europe, making them...

Around the world volunteers and non-professionals collect data as part of environmental citizen science projects, collecting wildlife observations, measures of water quality and much more. However, where projects allow flexibility in how, where, and when data are collected there will be variation in the behaviour of participants which results in bi...

Data from Butterfly Conservation's National Moth Recording Scheme and the MothsIreland database have been combined to produce the first-ever atlas covering all larger moths in Britain, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. It includes distribution maps showing current and historical records for 893 species and up-to-date information on...

Here, we determine annual estimates of occupancy and species trends for 5,293 UK bryophytes, lichens, and invertebrates, providing national scale information on UK biodiversity change for 31 taxonomic groups for the time period 1970 to 2015. The dataset was produced through the application of a Bayesian occupancy modelling framework to species occu...

In recent decades, entomologists have documented alarming declines in occurrence, taxonomic richness, and geographic range of insects around the world. Additionally, some recent studies have reported that insect abundance and biomass, often of common species, are rapidly declining, which has led some to dub the phenomenon an “Insect Apocalypse”. Re...

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and dist...

Range shifting is vital for species persistence, but there is little consensus on why individual species vary so greatly in the rates at which their ranges have shifted in response to recent climate warming. Here, using 40 years of distribution data for 291 species from 13 invertebrate taxa in Britain, we show that interactions between habitat avai...

Citizen science plays an increasingly important role in biodiversity research and conservation, enabling large volumes of data to be gathered across extensive spatial scales in a cost-effective manner. Open access increases the utility of such data, informing land-use decisions that may affect species persistence, enhancing transparency and encoura...

An appreciation of how some species are becoming more common despite unprecedented anthropogenic pressures could offer key insights for mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Research to date has largely focused on declining species, while species that are becoming more common have received relatively little attention. Macro-moths in Great Brit...

Multi-species indicators are widely used to condense large, complex amounts of information on multiple separate species by forming a single index to inform research, policy and management. Much detail is typically lost when such indices are constructed. Here we investigate the potential of Functional Data Analysis, focussing upon Functional Princip...

Citizen science is a powerful way to undertake monitoring of biodiversity, both for detecting rare events (e.g. invasive species, animal and plant health issues or presence of rare species) and assessing trends. However, in order to use citizen science effectively we need to understand better the patterns of people’s participation in projects consi...

Wildfires drive global biodiversity patterns and affect plant–pollinator interactions, and are expected to become more frequent and severe under climate change. Post‐fire plant communities often have increased floral abundance and diversity, but the effects of wildfires on the ecological process of pollination are poorly understood. Nocturnal moths...

A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with spe...

Reliable assessment of extinction risk is a key factor in the preparation of Red Lists and in prioritizing biodiversity conservation. Temporal population trends can provide important evidence for such assessments, but imperfect sampling (observation errors) and short-term stochastic variation in population levels caused by environmental variability...

Moths form an important part of Scotland’s biodiversity and an up-to-date assessment of their status is needed given their value as a diverse and species-rich taxon, with various ecosystem roles, and the known decline of moths within Britain. We use long-term citizen-science data to produce species-level trends and multi-species indicators for moth...

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is an increasingly important driver of global change. Lighting directly affects plants, but few studies have investigated indirect effects mediated by interacting organisms. Nocturnal Lepidoptera are globally important pollinators, and pollen transport by moths is disrupted by lighting. Many street lighting systems...

1. Moths are globally relevant as pollinators but nocturnal pollination remains poorly understood. Plant–pollinator interaction networks are traditionally constructed using either flower‐visitor observations or pollen‐transport detection using microscopy. Recent studies have shown the potential of DNA metabarcoding for detecting and identifying pol...

Protecting biodiversity against the impacts of climate change requires effective conservation strategies that safeguard species at risk of extinction¹. Microrefugia allowed populations to survive adverse climatic conditions in the past2,3, but their potential to reduce extinction risk from anthropogenic warming is poorly understood3–5, hindering ou...

Moths are globally relevant as pollinators but nocturnal pollination remains poorly understood. Plant-pollinator interaction networks are traditionally constructed using either flower-visitor observations or pollen-transport detection using microscopy. Recent studies have shown the potential of DNA metabarcoding for detecting and identifying pollen...

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion that climate change could pose for over 3000 plants and anima...

Abundance data are the foundation for many ecological and conservation projects, but are only available for a few taxonomic groups. In contrast, distribution records (georeferenced presence records) are more widely available. Here we examine whether year‐to‐year changes in numbers of distribution records, collated over a large spatial scale, can pr...

Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread sp...

Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly...

Appropriate large-scale citizen-science data present important new opportunities for biodiversity modelling, due in part to the wide spatial coverage of information. Recently proposed occupancy modelling approaches naturally incorporate random effects in order to account for annual variation in the composition of sites surveyed. In turn this leads...

Supplementary tables and figures. (PDF)

Comparing a parametric and non-parametric bootstrap approach. (PDF)

Environmental impact assessments are important tools for predicting the consequences of development and changes in land use. These assessments generally use a small subset of total biodiversity – typically rare and threatened species and habitats – as indicators of ecological status. However, these indicators do not necessarily reflect changes in t...

Among drivers of environmental change, artificial light at night is relatively poorly understood, yet is increasing on a global scale. The community-level effects of existing street lights on moths and their biotic interactions have not previously been studied. Using a combination of sampling methods at matched-pairs of lit and unlit sites, we foun...

Accurate knowledge of species' habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion...

There has been widespread concern that neonicotinoid pesticides may be adversely impacting wild and managed bees for some years, but recently attention has shifted to examining broader effects they may be having on biodiversity. For example in the Netherlands, declines in insectivorous birds are positively associated with levels of neonicotinoid po...

Modern species distribution models account for spatial autocorrelation in order to obtain unbiased statistical inference on the effects of covariates, to improve the model's predictive ability through spatial interpolation and to gain insight in the spatial processes shaping the data. Somewhat analogously, hierarchical approaches to community‐level...

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previou...

Biotic regionalization provides fundamental information for biogeography and conservation. The current consensus is to couple turnover indices and clustering methods to identify regions with distinct biotic composition. Nevertheless, turnover indices can produce large numbers of zero and tied dissimilarity values generating multiple clustering solu...

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questi...

Microclimate has been known to drive variation in the distribution and abundance of insects for some time. Until recently however, quantification of microclimatic effects has been limited by computing constraints and the availability of fine-scale biological data. Here, we tested fine-scale patterns of persistence/extinction in butterflies and moth...