Ricardo Hausmann

Harvard University | Harvard · Harvard Kennedy School of Government

We use aggregated and anonymized information based on international expenditures through corporate payment cards to map the network of global business travel. We combine this network with information on the industrial composition and export baskets of national economies. The business travel network helps to predict which economic activities will gr...

For the twenty years following the Zapatista uprising (1994-2013), the federal government had placed a lot of resources and policy attention in an effort to reduce the large income gaps between Chiapas and the rest of Mexico. Public investment in schools, hospitals, and conditional cash transfer programs had been implemented, resulting in a signifi...

We examine gender gaps in career dynamics in the legal sector using rich panel data from one of the largest global law firms in the world. The law firm studied is representative of multinational law firms and operates in 23 countries. The sample includes countries at different stages of development. We document the cross‐country variation in gender...

As a result of widespread mistreatment and overt discrimination in all dimensions of their lives, women lack significant autonomy. The central preoccupation of this book is to explore key sources of female empowerment and discuss the current challenges and opportunities for the future. Schematically, three main domains are distinguished. The first...

Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the world: for many countries it represents the single largest product in their export basket. However, it is a product difficult to chart: "exporters" of tourism do not ship it abroad, but they welcome importers inside the country. Current research uses social accounting matrices and gene...

The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity and cultural evolution to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in scaling exponents and average prevalence across phenomena, as well as the difference in the variance within pheno...

Social relations involve both face-to-face interaction as well as telecommunications. We can observe the geography of phone calls and of the mobility of cell phones in space. These two phenomena can be described as networks of connections between different points in space. We use a dataset that includes billions of phone calls made in Colombia duri...

Dataset Used. The minimal dataset necessary for the replication of the main results included in the paper. The zip file contains data and code used in the experiments. A readme file provides instructions. (ZIP)

Image sharing authorization. The document with which OpenSignal granted us the rights of using Fig 5. (PDF)

IRB Documentation. The document with which the Committee on the Use of Human Subjects at the authors’ affiliation institution approved the usage of the data made in this paper, certifying that the rights of all subjects whose data have been examined in the study have not been violated. (PDF)

In previous work we have defined "dark matter" as the difference between the capitalized value of net investment income of a country and the official measure of its net foreign assets. In this paper we estimate dark matter assets for Latin American countries. We find that official current account dynamics follow reasonably well the evolution of dar...

Resumen La brecha educativa de género se ha cerrado, o incluso invertido, en muchos países, pero ¿qué hay de otras desigualdades en el empleo? A partir de microdatos censales de 40 países, los autores examinan la brecha de participación laboral entre hombres y mujeres, así como entre mujeres casadas y solteras, y entre madres y mujeres sin hijos. E...

Résumé Dans de nombreux pays, on observe une disparition, voire une inversion de l'écart d'instruction entre hommes et femmes. Mais cela se traduit‐il sur le marché du travail? Se fondant sur des données de recensement recueillies dans quarante pays, les auteurs examinent les écarts en termes de taux d'activité entre hommes et femmes, entre femmes...

Maps capture data expressing the economic complexity of countries from Albania to Zimbabwe, offering current economic measures and as well as a guide to achieving prosperity Why do some countries grow and others do not? The authors of The Atlas of Economic Complexity offer readers an explanation based on "Economic Complexity," a measure of a societ...

Ricardian theories of production often take the comparative advantage of locations in different industries to be uncorrelated. They are seen as the outcome of the realization of a random extreme value distribution. These theories do not take a stance regarding the counterfactual or implied comparative advantage if the country does not make the prod...

Income per capita in Uganda has doubled in the last 20 years. This remarkable performance has been buoyed by significant aid flows and large external imbalances. Economic growth has been concentrated in non-tradeable activities leading to growing external imbalances and a growing gap between rural and urban incomes. Future growth will depend on ach...

This paper studies the relationship between sovereign spreads and the interaction between debt composition and debt levels in advanced and emerging market countries. It finds that in emerging market countries there is a significant correlation between spreads and debt levels. This correlation, however, is not statistically significant in countries...

Scientific American is the world's premier magazine of scientific discovery and technological innovation for the general public. Readers turn to it for a deep understanding of how science and technology can influence human affairs and illuminate the natural world.

: The education gap between men and women has closed, or has even reversed in many countries. Have countries also made progress in closing other gaps facing women? Using micro-level Census data for close to 40 countries, we examine several dimensions of gender disparity: we compare men and women's labor force participation (the labor force particip...

We study the structure of international aid coordination by creating and analyzing a tripartite network of donor organizations, recipient countries and development issues using web-based information. We develop a measure of coordination and find that it is moderate, achieving about 60% of its theoretical maximum. Many countries are strongly connect...

The literature on knowledge diffusion shows that knowledge decays strongly with distance. In this paper we document that the probability a product is added to a country’s export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring country is a successful exporter of that same product. For existing products, growth of exports in a country is 1.5 perce...

In economic systems, the mix of products that countries make or export has been shown to be a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Hence, methods to characterize and predict the structure of the network connecting countries to the products that they export are relevant for understanding the dynamics of economic development. Here we study th...

Additional information on the data and methods used throughout the manuscript. (DOCX)

We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy indeed follows the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago. National economies can be viewed as complex, evolving systems, driven by a stream of appearance and disappearance o...

Regional developments in economic complexity. Histograms for change in (top row) income level and (bottom row) product complexity associated with each process for seven different world regions (Latin America and the Carribean, East-Asia and the Pacific, Middle-east and North-Africa, Sub-saharan Africa, South-Asia, Western Europe and Northern Americ...

GDP vs average PRODY of products not being exported by this country. High GDP countries tend to not export products with a low PRODY, i.e. low economic complexity (upper left region of the plot). Low GDP countries miss products with a high PRODY in their export baskets, they are found in the lower right region. Oil exporting countries such as Qatar...

A detailed description of the datasets used in this work, as well as the applied filtering and cleaning procedures. (PDF)

Further information on the robustness tests for statistical significance of product co-occurrences. (PDF)

Discussion of the properties of maximum spanning trees. (PDF)

Appearance and Disappearance events. Appearance and disappearance events in product p in country c are only included if the underlying diversity timeseries is of one of the types (a)-(d). The time of the appearance event is then always the first appearance (green dashed line in (a) and (b)), disappearances are the last events (red dashed lines in (...

Development of economic complexity in Eastern Europe. Histograms for change in income level and (a) product complexity (b) associated with each process for Eastern European countries between 1984–1989, that is in a centrally planned economy. The development is more or less symmetric. Compare this to the clear positive skew in (c) and (d), where cha...

Number of appearances vs SCI for each country. This shows that SCI can not be explained by the number of appearances alone. Observe that e.g. Ecuador and Portugal have the same number of product appearances, but Ecuador has one of the highest SCIs and Portugal one of the lowest. (EPS)

GDP vs SCI for each country. Countries cluster into two distinct groups. Western countries are mostly found at the bottom right (low SCI and high GDP), poor countries to the bottom left (low SCI and low GDP), countries with high SCI form a bridge between those two regimes. (EPS)

More results and comparisons of different countries and world regions using the indicators discussed in this work. (PDF)

Histograms for Schumpeterian Product Index. Histograms for Schumpeterian Product Index for co-appearances , co-disappearances DD, and the mixed forms AD and DA (from top to bottom) for maximal time-lag . The is shown for the surrogate data (blue) and the trade data (red). A significant fraction of higher SPI values for the trade data are seen for a...

Comparison of PRODY and PCI values for each product category. The PRODY value was computed as in [19] using NBER trade data as an average over each PRODY from the timespan 1993–2000.To compute the PCI we extract the matrix of significant exporters as defined in [7] from the NBER trade data for each year from 1993–2000. Using and one computes the ma...

Histograms for Schumpeterian Product Index, excluding CEE. Histograms for Schumpeterian Product Index for co-appearances , co-disappearances , and the mixed forms and (from top to bottom) for maximal time-lag . Countries from the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are excluded. The is shown for the surrogate data (blue) and the trade data (red)...

The properties of the Schumpeterian evolutionary model are discussed in greater detail, including the description of a dynamical algorithm for simulation purposes. (PDF)

In this paper we document that the probability that a product is added to a country’s export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring country is a successful exporter of that same product. We interpret our result as evidence of international intra-industry knowledge diffusion. Our results are consistent with the overall consensus in the l...

This study analyzes diverse hypotheses of electronic fraud in the Recall Referendum celebrated in Venezuela on August 15, 2004. We define fraud as the difference between the elector's intent, and the official vote tally. Our null hypothesis is that there was no fraud, and we attempt to search for evidence that will allow us to reject this hypothesi...

Export Pioneers in Latin America analyzes a series of case studies of successful new export activities throughout the region to learn how pioneers jump-start a virtuous process leading to economic transformation. The cases of blueberries in Argentina, avocados in Mexico, and aircraft in Brazil illustrate how an initially successful export activity...

This chapter argues that obstacles to productive transformation may be a significant part of the growth problem in many countries in Latin America, which means that the continuation of a low-dimensional horizontal policy stance is unlikely to help. Inevitably, policies will have to move back to a more activist role in terms of listening to and prom...

In this paper we examine several dimensions of gender disparity for a sample of 40 countries using micro-level data. We start by documenting the reversal of the gender education gap and ranking countries by the year in which it reversed. Then we turn to an analysis of the state of other gaps facing women: we compare men and women’s labor force part...

This paper updates our previous work on the level and evolution of original sin. It shows that while the number of countries that issue local-currency debt in international markets has increased in the past decade, this improvement has been quite modest. Although we find that countries have been borrowing at home, thanks to deepening domestic marke...

Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they export.We characterize this network using four structural features: the negative relationship between the divers...

The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) is an international association of economists with common research interests in Latin America and the Carribbean. The association seeks to advance the scientific dialogue, both content-wise and in terms of funding. Furthermore, it supports scientific projects as well as teaching and netw...

Countries differ markedly in the diversification of their exports. Products differ in the number of countries that export them, which we define as their ubiquity. We document a new stylized fact in the global pattern of exports: there is a systematic relationship between the diversification of a country’s exports and the ubiquity of its products. W...

This paper applies new techniques and metrics to analyze Ecuador's past record of and future opportunities for structural transformation. Ecuador's export dynamics and the emergence of new export activities have been the historical drivers of the country's growth, but recently Ecuador's export basket has undergone little structural transformation....

We present a simple method to infer the relative number of non-tradable inputs available in a country from trade data connecting countries to the products they export. We show that countries approaches over the long run a level of income that is determined by the diversity of inputs available in the country, as approximated by the measures introduc...

In this paper we establish six stylized facts related to marriage and work in Latin America and present a simple model to account for them. First, skilled women are less likely to be married than unskilled women. Second, skilled women are less likely to be married than skilled men. Third, married skilled men are more likely to work than unmarried s...

For Adam Smith, wealth was related to the division of labor. As people and firms specialize in different activities, economic efficiency increases, suggesting that development is associated with an increase in the number of individual activities and with the complexity that emerges from the interactions between them. Here we develop a view of econo...

DISCLAIMER The views expressed within this paper are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect those of the organizations they are affiliated with, its members, nor any employee or persons acting on behalf of any of them. In addition, none of these make any warranty, expressed or implied, assumes any liability or responsibility for the accuracy,...

In 2006 the South African Government convened an International Growth Advisory Panel (IGAP) to take a new look at the country’s growth record and, in light of such, offer comment on the national growth strategy, ASGISA. The team comprised twenty five members who worked alongside government counterparts in the Presidency, Treasury, Department of Tra...

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As part of the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA), the National Treasury of the Republic of South Africa convened an international panel of economists through Harvard's Center for International Development. This panel spent two years analyzing the South African economy and its growth prospects, and composed 20 papers spanning all asp...

This paper presents a growth diagnostic of Peru. It notes that although Peru has recently enjoyed high rates of economic growth, this growth is actually a recovery from a significant and sustained growth collapse that began in the 1970s. The growth collapse was caused by a decline in export earnings due to the fall in international prices and an in...

Essays by prominent scholars and policymakers honor one of the most influential macroeconomists of the last thirty years, discussing the themes behind his work. Guillermo Calvo, one of the most influential macroeconomists of the last thirty years, has made pathbreaking contributions in such areas as time-inconsistency, lack of credibility, stabiliz...

In a series of papers we have developed the notion that net foreign assets could be better approximated by capitalizing the net investment income line of the balance of payments statistics. Hidden assets or changes in financial costs may change the net return of net foreign assets even when the valuation of assets remains unchanged. By capitalizing...

Most well-trained economists would agree that the standard policy reforms included in the 'Washington Consensus' have the potential to be growthpromoting. What the experience of the last fifteen years has shown, however, is that the impact of these reforms is heavily dependent on circumstances. This chapter argues that this calls for an approach to...

Using South Africa as an example, this article explores how the structure of production affects export diversification and economic growth. We show that the lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita in South Africa over the past 40 years. This slow structural transformation is shown to b...

This inductive study offers an examination of 23 cases in which informants from firms engaged in large-scale global projects reported unforeseen costs after failing to comprehend cognitive-cultural, normative, and/or regulative institutions in an unfamiliar host societal context. The study builds on the conceptual framework of institutional theory....

This paper performs a Growth Diagnostic for Brazil. It shows that many aspects of the Brazilian economy have been improving including the macro picture, educational progress and the external front. Moreover, Brazil has many productive possibilities and high-return investments. Yet growth is hampered because of a relatively old-fashioned problem tha...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze Colombia's experiences with and opportunities for export led growth. We first review Colombia's growth and export performance over the past 30 years and find that the country is indeed facing an export challenge. We then go on to develop new metrics and apply them to Colombia's export challenge. First, we con...

This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...

he main purpose of industrial policy is to speed up the process of structural change towards higher productivity activities. This paper builds on our earlier writings to present an overall design for the conduct of industrial policy in a low- to middle-income country. It is stimulated by the specific problems faced by South Africa and by our discus...

Economies grow by upgrading the products they produce and export. The technology, capital, institutions, and skills needed to make newer products are more easily adapted from some products than from others. Here, we study this network of relatedness between products, or "product space," finding that more-sophisticated products are located in a dens...

Current account statistics may not be good indicators of the evolution of a country's net foreign assets and of its external position's sustainability. The value of existing assets may vary independently of current account flows, so-called ‘return privileges’ may allow some countries to obtain abnormal returns, and mismeasurement of FDI, unreported...

When local cost discovery generates knowledge spillovers, specialization patterns become partly indeterminate and the mix of goods that a country produces may have important implications for economic growth. We demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support for it. We construct an index of the “income level of a country’s e...

In this paper, we test the assumption underlying the foundational models of trade that there always exist products through which countries can express their endowments and technology. We map the `space' of products in the world, and find it to be quite heterogeneous, with a central core and outer periphery. Moreover, we show that the way countries...

América Latina está creciendo de nuevo. En el período 2002-2005, los principales países de la región han registrado aumentos significativos del PIB total. 2 De las ocho economías más importantes de la región, tres crecieron más de un 5%, otras tres superaron el 4%, y las que obtuvieron peores resultados crecieron un 3%. Los hechos que han apuntalad...

En trabajos anteriores, hemos definido «materia escura» como la diferencia entre el valor capitalizado del rendimiento neto de la inversión de un país y la medición oficial de sus activos externos netos. En este artículo, calculamos los activos de materia oscura para los países de América Latina. Constatamos que la dinámica oficial de las cuentas c...

This paper clarifies how the valuation of hidden assets—what we call “dark matter”—changes our assessment of the U.S. external imbalance. Dark matter assets are defined as the capitalized value of the return privilege obtained by U.S. assets. Because this return privilege has been steady over recent decades, it is likely to persist in the future or...

This paper explores export performance in South Africa over the past 50 years, and concludes that a lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita. Slow structural transformation in South Africa is found to be a consequence of the peripheral nature of South Africa’s productive capabilities. W...

In this paper we examine the product space and its consequences for the process of structural transformation. We argue that the assets and capabilities needed to produce one good are imperfect substitutes for those needed to produce other goods, but the degree of asset specificity varies widely. Given this, the speed of structural transformation wi...

A decision tree methodology to help identify the relevant binding constraints for each developing country that adopted the Washington Consensus is proposed. The methodology focuses on alternative hypotheses that will help clarify the options available to policymakers for responding to political constraints. In this sense, the focus is on igniting g...

This paper documents large cross-country differences in the long-run volatility of the real exchange rate. It shows that the real exchange rate of developing countries is approximately three times more volatile than the real exchange rate in industrial countries. The paper shows that this difference in volatility cannot be explained by the fact tha...

This paper argues that current account statistics may provide a poor indication for the real evolution of a country’s net foreign assets. This may be due to a series of factors including the mismeasurement of FDI, unreported trade of insurance or liquidity services and debt relief. Because of these problems we suggest estimating net foreign assets...

This paper clarifies how dark matter changes our assessment of the US external imbalance. Dark matter assets are defined as the capitalized value of the return privilege obtained by US assets. Because this return privilege has been steady over recent decades, it is likely to persist in the future or even to increase, as it becomes leveraged by an i...

This paper calculates indices of central bank autonomy (CBA) for 163 central banks as of end-2003, and comparable indices for a subgroup of 68 central banks as of the end of the 1980s. The results confirm strong improvements in both economic and political CBA over the past couple of decades, although more progress is needed to boost political auton...

Tuition fees increased rapidly in the 1990s in most Canadian provinces raising concerns about access to post-secondary education. This paper examines the role of tuition fees in explaining participation in college and university programs from 1997 to 1999 in all provinces except Quebec and Ontario. Differentiated responses to tuition fees by family...

There are two widely-held views on economic growth: 1) it is a natural outcome of getting ‘the basics’ right-- international integration, macroeconomic stability, and contract enforcement; and 2) it is hard, requiring a complete set of first, second, and third generation reforms that have little payoff until they are all implemented. Yet the eviden...