Retius Chifurira

Retius Chifurira
University of KwaZulu-Natal | ukzn · School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science

PhD in Statistics

About

15
Publications
4,521
Reads
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31
Citations
Citations since 2016
11 Research Items
31 Citations
201620172018201920202021202202468101214
201620172018201920202021202202468101214
201620172018201920202021202202468101214
201620172018201920202021202202468101214
Introduction

Publications

Publications (15)
Preprint
Full-text available
Background: SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19 virus) infection exposed the unpreparedness of African countries to health-related issues, South Africa included. Africa recorded more than 211 853 deaths as a consequence of Covid-19. South Africa faced the highest number of casualties. This study aimed to estimate the risk of fatalities due to Covid-19 infection f...
Preprint
Full-text available
Background This study aim was to identify the risk factors associated with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) disease. The Weibull model has shown to perform better than the Cox proportional models with respect to the accuracy and efficient of the estimates. Therefore, a Weibull parametric model was employed to identify predictors of death i...
Article
Full-text available
In the preceding decade, the South African economy has experienced challenges due to global disruptive events, hence, the implementation of risk mitigation strategies becomes a priority in volatile markets. Stable distributions account for skewness and heavy-tailed behaviour which are frequently observed in financial data. This study aims to invest...
Article
Full-text available
Risk management and prediction of market losses of cryptocurrencies are of notable value to risk managers, portfolio managers, financial market researchers and academics. One of the most common measures of an asset’s risk is Value-at-Risk (VaR). This paper evaluates and compares the performance of generalized autoregressive score (GAS) combined wit...
Article
Full-text available
South Africa’s economy has faced many downturns in the previous decade, and to curb the spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2, the lockdown brought South African financial markets to an abrupt halt. Therefore, the implementation of risk mitigation approaches is becoming a matter of urgency in volatile markets in these unprecedented times. In this study, a...
Article
Full-text available
This study is aimed at investigating the volatility dynamics and the risk-return relationship in the South African market, analyzing the FTSE/JSE All Share Index returns for an updated sample period of 2009–2019. The study employed several GARCH type models with different probability distributions governing the model’s innovations. Results have rev...
Article
Over the past decade, crude oil prices have risen dramatically, making the oil market very volatile and risky; hence, implementing an efficient risk management tool against market risk is crucial. Value-at-risk (VaR) has become the most common tool in this context to quantify market risk. Financial data typically have certain features such as volat...
Article
Full-text available
Orientation: Value-at-risk (VAR) and other risk management tools, such as expected shortfall (conditional VAR), are heavily reliant on a suitable set of underlying distributional conjecture. Thus, distinguishing the underlying distribution that best captures all properties of stock returns is of great interest to both scholars and risk managers. R...
Article
Risk management tools, such as value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (conditional value-at-risk) are highly dependent on an appropriate set of underlying distributional assumptions being made. Identifying a distribution that best captures all aspects of financial data sets may benefit both investors and risk managers. In this study, we compare...
Article
Full-text available
This paper examines the presence of cointegration between South African gold mining index and USD/ZAR exchange rate. The results show that gold index and USD/ZAR exchange rate series are both I(1) and are cointegrated. The Granger causality test shows a two-way directional causality between gold index and USD/ZAR exchange rate for the period 9 June...
Article
Full-text available
We modelled the mean annual rainfall for data recorded in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2009. Extreme value theory was used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological droughts. Droughts can be viewed as extreme events which go beyond and/or below normal rainfall occurrences, such as exceptionally low mean annual rainfall. The duality between the distr...
Article
Full-text available
This paper analyses the relationship between inflation (INF) and Automobile sales in South Africa by using the co-integration and causality tests. The analysis has been conducted using monthly data over the period 1960:1 through 2013:9. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test indicates that the two series are stationary in the first-difference n...
Article
Full-text available
This study aims to identify the barriers to success in statistics using exploratory factor analysis and regression modelling techniques. Students from a broad spectrum of specialities in universities take statistics as a course, the majority of them with poor mathematical background. A questionnaire was administered to 394 respondents in the facult...
Conference Paper
Full-text available
In this paper the generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to the mean annual rainfall to describe the extremes of rainfall. Extreme value theory (EVT) is used to estimate the probabilities of meteorological floods. The maxima distribution is used to fit the generalized extreme value distribution to the data and find probabilities of extrem...

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