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Publications
Publications (100)
Brazilian power sector post-covid, privatization of Eletrobras and the internationalization of power sector MNEs
Two simple methods are proposed -one using new cases statistics, the other new deaths- to monitor how successful a given policy to face the epidemic is being. Regularly computed on a weekly basis, they provide an auxiliary way to gauge the progress of the control and the decrease of the epidemic. Italy and Spain are use as examples.
This chapter speaks of a transitional moment triggered by, among others, three forces: the slow decline of the global hegemon and the concentrating aspects of modern capitalism and science; simultaneously alienating segments of society, via income inequality; and groups of countries, by the asymmetric distribution of information processing capabili...
A velha eletricidade, quem diria, está de cara nova! Historicamente conservador e com um modelo de negócios fixado no início do século XX, o setor elétrico está finalmente se transformando a olhos vistos. Novas fontes de energia, geração distribuída, carro elétrico, livre escolha do supridor pelo consumidor, preços horários ... Como pano de fundo,...
We develop a double proposal: a shift in the COP (Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) efforts and output coupled with a deeper and more effective incorporation of the sustainability dimension in CSR. The mining sector in Brazil is the testing field for this endeavour, through specially designed co...
O presente trabalho, alinhando-se com as preocupações da busca de soluções energéticas sustentáveis na América do Sul, procura examinar e refletir sobre a situação atual e possibilidades de evolução institucional capazes de dar suporte a processos de intercâmbio e de comercialização internacional de eletricidade, com foco nos países do Cone Sul par...
A ampla disponibilidade de alguns recursos naturais pode ser uma bonança, mas também trazer junto uma maldição. A exploração de recursos abundantes, principalmente em países pobres, gera riquezas, mas tende a afetar não apenas a economia, mas toda a estrutura social e maneira de viver dessas regiões. Se não for bem gerenciada favorece a concentraçã...
Institutional mechanisms to promote the energy integration in the Prata Region
The large availability of hydro power in Brazil here focused generated wealth through the construction of important local assets, needed to promote the country’s growth, in contrast with the abundancy of oil and other fossil fuels that, in other countries, has been usually utilized to generate wealth through trade. Now, the transition of its exploi...
Análise da Matriz Energética Brasileira e do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro e seu modelo institucional e dos processos adotados no Brasil para a promoção das novas formas de energia renovável no setor elétrico, incluindo o processo bem sucedido de leilões realizados no período 2004-2016, com ênfase na expansão da energia eólica e da solar fotovoltaica p...
This study aims at the identification of new paths, starting from concrete productive associations, that could lead to closer production and consumption patterns among South American countries. The case here studied relates to enlarging the use of wind and solar energy sources in their energy matrices: a novel development that should be faced withi...
‘Make trade, not war’ is a classical motto that, depending on the times, finds more or less debatable theoretical and empirical support. Trade negotiators and international relations people in general lend sophisticated support to this proposition by invoking Immanuel Kant’s modest short essay on perpetual peace, raised by many to the heights of a...
En este trabajo se trazan las líneas principales que condicionan el Gobierno de Dilma Rousseff en Brasil y se hace un pronóstico general de las perspectivas que se apuntan para los próximos cuatro años. Se pone un énfasis especial en el aspecto económico, ya que se considera que el dilema que se plantea es y seguirá siendo uno de los asuntos clave...
The crisis has drawn attention to the fact that not only emerging powers but other regions of the world as well may be offering different development models and may constitute into alternative, in some dimensions more positive agents, in the conduct of the present stage of globalisation. Notwithstanding, the traditional western powers have not lost...
En este trabajo se evalúa la participación relativa de Argentina, Brasil, Guatemala y Nicaragua en la producción segmentada. En base a estadísticas de comercio exterior (2000–2004), se analiza si el comercio de estas economías ha evolucionado dentro de cadenas globales de producción y cuán grande este tipo de comercio es a efectos de mantener su pr...
En este trabajo se evalúa la participación relativa de Argentina, Brasil, Guatemala y Nicaragua en la producción segmentada. En base a estadísticas de comercio exterior (2000–2004), se analiza si el comercio de estas economías ha evolucionado dentro de cadenas globales de producción y cuán grande este tipo de comercio es a efectos de mantener su pr...
In this paper we propose the use of a sequential multivariate approach to test for convergence. These tests allow us to reconcile the time series literature with the cross-sectional dimension which is basic when testing for convergence in regional blocs. In addition, this methodology helps to avoid the problem due to the limited dataset length. We...
Regional integration among asymmetric countries is a hot and burning policy topic worldwide. Deepening Integration in MERCOSUR analyzes the most important issues of economic integration and policy coordination that countries face as they advance towards deeper integration and are urged to address development disparities among partner countries.
Los recientes desarrollos en las fronteras multilaterales y regionales llaman a una reevaluaci�n de las opciones de comercio e integraci�n para el MERCOSUR. Aplicando un nuevo modelo CGE, evaluamos 6 escenarios. La simulaci�n indic� que los acuerdos comerciales generar�n ganancias relativamente peque�as pero positivas. La integraci�n con Estados Un...
This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the productivity of Portuguese manufacturing sectors. It improves on previous studies by considering the choice of the most appropriate interval of the technological gap for spillovers diffusion. Sectoral variation in the coefficients of the spillover effect is also allowed fo...
We identify trade in goods opportunities in a EU-Mercosul free trade area. Gains for Mercosul are rather concentrated, being mostly associated with a few agricultural commodities which face high protection barriers. EU gains are evenly spread, comprising a variety of market penetration possibilities. Trade deviation in the EU products is never high...
This paper investigates cross-country productivity convergence among Mercosur members plus associates (Chile and Bolivia) and Peru, during the period 1960–1999. The testing strategy is based on the definitions of time series convergence by Bernard and Durlauf (1995) [Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Interpreting tests of convergence hypothe...
Este artículo examina el papel fundamental de la infraestructura en las modalidades de comercio de la Comunidad Andina, utilizando tres modelos de gravedad. El primero destaca la importancia de los acuerdos de comercio preferencial y de la proximidad geográfica. Los otros dos también abarcan ambos aspectos, pero se centran en la inclusión de la inf...
In this paper, the authors discuss the deepening of MERCOSUL's integration in the context of enhancing regional competitiveness. The paper focuses on regional policies related to the trade flows, creating a united area for investment and common competitiveness policies, and regional cohesion funds for MERCOSUL. The authors argue that the road to a...
Why don’t agents cooperate when they both stand to gain? This question ranks among the most fundamental in the social sciences. Explanations abound. Among the most compelling are various configurations of the prisoner’s dilemma (PD), or public goods problem. Payoffs in PD’s are specified in one of two ways: as primitive cardinal payoffs or as ordin...
Considering the three first moments and allowing short sales, the efficient portfolios set for n risky assets and a riskless one is found, supposing that agents like odd moments and dislike even ones. Analytical formulas for the solution surface are obtained and important geometric properties provide insights on its shape in the three-dimensional s...
Previous theoretical work by the authors has developed a framework for optimizing portfolio decisions when moments higher than the variance are considered. Apart a significant increase in computational complexity, inclusion of higher order moments implies a careful judgement on which cross-moments to choose as non-zero. The reason for this lies not...
This chapter presents mathematical tools that make the algebra of multivariate higher moments very tractable. Based on them, a multidimensional portfolio frontier is created, incorporating skewness and using kurtosis instead of variance. Most models in finance are based on mean-variance analysis. Therefore, risk premium is derived from the second m...
We discuss geometric properties related to the minimisation of a portfolio kurtosis given its first two odd moments, considering a risk-less asset and allowing for short sales. The findings are generalised for the minimisation of any given even portfolio moment with fixed excess return and skewness, and then for the case in which only excess return...
This paper presents a framework developed to explain the private capital flows between the rest of the world and a small economy. Despite its simplicity, this framework - based on the monetary premium theory - brings answers to several questions regarding the capital flows phenomena, including its relationship with interest rate differences. In a s...
In this paper, the Federal Funds Rate Target and the one-year T-Bill are the two yield-factors explaining the movements of the term structure, Using Duffie and Kan (1996) approach, the two rates are consistently modeled and an affine model of the term structure results that is able to incorporate the Federal Open Market Committee discontinuous move...
El propósito central de este libro es brindar información y elementos analíticos que sean útiles para elaborar respuestas a interrogantes sobre el bloque como medio para la integración. Además de realizar un balance de lo ocurrido con la integración en la última década, se evalúan las perspectivas y se discuten propuestas. Se abarcan prácticamente...
Ways of finding a maximum skewness portfolio, with given return, variance and kurtosis, are presented. The methods take advantage of the special shape of the efficient portfolios manifold. Simpler solutions are obtained if the higher moments tensor has some particular structures. The problem of finding the optimal portoflio in a dynamic setting is...
I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures pri...
We evaluate the potential dynamic effects of MERCOSUR on the Argentinean economy. Two approaches, already used with other regional integration agreements, are applied for measuring medium and long-term effects. Special care has been taken in separating intra from extra zone effects. All estimations are carefully checked and have their magnitudes co...
We compare three frequently used volatility modelling techniques: GARCH, Markovian switching and cumulative daily volatility
models. Our primary goal is to highlight a practical and systematic way to measure the relative effectiveness of these techniques.
Evaluation comprises the analysis of the validity of the statistical requirements of the vario...
We show how to include in the CAPM moments of any order, extending the mean-variance or mean-variance-skewness versions available
until now. Then, we present a simple way to modify the formulae, in order to avoid the appearance of utility parameters. The
results can be easily applied to practical portfolio design, with econometric inference and tes...
So far, most univariate tests of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) have provided mixed support for PPP. In contrast, this paper focuses on a multivariate framework, which produces much stronger results. Unlike previous panel tests, however, we do not impose a common speed of mean reversion. The contribution of this paper is to show that the increased p...
In their paper on price comovements of paintings, Ginsburgh and Jeanfils show that in three important markets (London, Paris and New York), prices of well-known and lesser known painters ''move together'' (are cointegrated). They conclude that therefore, an investor may be indifferent between the two groups of painters. We show that this is not the...
Section 2 briefly discusses the airlines' business, focusing on the aspects thought relevant to the main argument. Section 3 considers the airlines' operating environment, highlighting the elements which determine the actual behaviour of the existing alliances. Section 4 looks at the business from a regulatory and trade in services perspective, com...
This paper presents general equilibrium evaluations of the MERCOSUL. Three scenarios are examined, varying from increased world regionalism to an optimistic multilateral situation. Welfare gains are significant for Uruguay, somewhat less for Argentina, and also present in Brazil. Uruguay is less vulnerable to the world environment; Argentina, on th...
This paper investigates the content of the information set used by the agents in the Warsaw Stock Exchange - WSE. Three “candidate variables” are examined — consumers’ prices, the zloty/US$ exchange rate and the refinancing rate of the National Bank of Poland — with respect to three WSE stocks, from different sectors of the economy. The methodology...
We argue that for the case of heterogeneous commodities with infrequent tradings, such as paintings, it is relevant to base a price index on hedonic regressions using all sales and not resales only. To support this conclusion we construct a price index for paintings by Impressionists and their followers and compare the various estimators using boot...
A broader definition of cointegration is presented, allowing for different orders in the original process. As a result, different cointegration vectors may be generated from a given one. However, if the cointegrated process is stationary, then the standard ideas and methods may still apply.
The Queen Elisabeth musical competition is the best-known international competition for violin and piano organized in Belgium and is considered among the best and most demanding in the world. Each competition, organized in principle every 4 years, attracts about 40 violinists or 85 pianists, from many countries around the world. There is little dou...
Three hypotheses on services, the Gershuny effect, the externalisation of producers services and the macroeconomic equation for the services share in employment, are tested with Brazilian data. The first two show trends similar to those in the developed economies, but, in the last one, findings are affected by consideration of the underground econo...
This paper generalises previous results on the identification of rational expectations (r.e.) models, establishing necessary and sufficient conditions on the structural form of static and dynamic models, without specific assumptions on the stochastic processes generating the endogenous and exogenous variables. The approach allows the econometrician...
This paper analyses exchange rate series for Poland and Brazil. The Polish series, related to the period soon after the first liberalizing measures, presents a high volatility which is not accounted for by some selected 'fundamentals.' The Brazilian series, though also keeping evidence of excessive volatility, is cointegrated with fundamentals simi...
The relationships between (foreign) tourism and the balance of payments are explored, for Brazil, with the aid of an econometric model for the net tourism exports. A better exports performance depends on a series of policies directed at several sector shortcomings. These policies are translated into changes in selected exogenous variables and, cons...
We evaluate the potential dynamic effects of MERCOSUR on the Argentinean economy. Two approaches, already used with other regional integration agreements, are applied for measuring medium and long-term effects. Special care has been taken in separating intra from extra zone effects. All estimations are carefully checked and have their magnitudes co...
We investigate the impact of foreign direct investment on the labour productivity of Portuguese domestic firms via technological spillovers, using sectoral data. The usual specifications for this purpose are built for the intra- industry level. We use a standard one with some improvements and show that one should consider the most appropriate inter...
ABSTRACT Political economy,views of trade policies are important in order to understand the structure of trade protection that bears not only on a particular country but also lies behind most international agreements. This paper analyses the equilibrium structure of protection in Mercosul, developing empirical analyses based on the literature ensui...
Conditional independence implies testable density restrictions in the underlying data generating process. A natural way to test conditional inde-pendence relies then on checking how well these density restrictions fit the data. This paper then proposes nonparametric tests of conditional independence. All asymptotic results are derived under mixing...
