Ratna Sahay

Ratna Sahay
International Monetary Fund · Monetary and Capital Markets Department

PhD

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72
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Publications

Publications (72)
Chapter
Good morning everybody, and before we start, allow me on behalf of the IMF’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific to thank both ADBI and the FSA for co-hosting this event with us, and of course all of you for participating and coming here to contribute and participate this morning. We look forward to an interesting day of discussions on a range...
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Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that...
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A laccase has been purified from the liquid culture growth medium containing bagasse particles of Fomes durissimus. The method involved concentration of the culture filtrate by ultrafiltration and anion exchange chromatography on diethyl aminoethyl cellulose. The sodium dodecyl sulphate–polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and native polya...
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What determines the ability of governments from developing countries to access international credit markets? We examine this question using detailed data on sovereign bond issuances and public syndicated bank loans between 1980 and 2000. A key finding of this paper is that the probability of market access is not influenced by a country's frequency...
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The countries of the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus and Central Asia have the highest output volatility in the world. Fiscal policy is a powerful tool that can help dampen the business cycles. This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in the region during the past four decades and explores whether the response dur...
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The effect of lignin containing natural substrates corn-cob, coir-dust, saw-dust, wheat straw and bagasse particles on the extracellular secretion of laccase in the liquid culture growth medium of Pleurotus sajor-caju MTCC 141 has been studied. The culture conditions for maximum secretion of laccase by Pleurotus sajor-caju MTCC 141 have been optimi...
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The culture conditions for maximum secretion of laccase by Loweporus lividus MTCC-1178 have been optimized. The laccase from the culture filtrate of L. lividus MTCC-1178 has been purified to homogeneity. The molecular weight of the purified laccase is 64.8 kDa. The enzymatic characteristics like K m, pH, and temperature optimum using 2,6-dimethoxyp...
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This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility. Macroeconomic outcomes are distinguished from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints. Based on p...
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This paper documents the behavior of output and its association with other macroeconomic variables in 195 episodes of currency crises in developing countries during 1970–2000. We find that about 60% of the crises are contractionary, while the rest are expansionary. Crises are one and a half times more likely to be contractionary in emerging markets...
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Although Caribbean countries have been largely successful in bringing annual inflation down to single digits in recent years-regardless of their exchange rate regime-their growth rates have been disappointing and their public debt has risen rapidly. By 2003, 14 of 15 Caribbean countries ranked in the top 30 of the world's highly indebted emerging m...
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IMF-supported programs focus on key objectives (such as growth, inflation, and the external current account) and on intermediate policy targets (such as monetary and fiscal policies) needed to achieve these objectives. In this paper we use a new, large data set, with information on 94 programs between 1989 and 2002, to compare programmed objectives...
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IMF supported programs include key objectives (such as growth, inflation, and current account adjustment) and the intermediate policy targets (such as monetary and fiscal policies) needed to achieve these objectives. In this paper, we use a new, large dataset, with information on 94 programs between 1989 and 2002, to compare programmed objectives a...
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This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using International Monetary Fund (IMF) data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for...
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Following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1992, several low-income countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accumulated substantial external debt in a short time span, about half of which is owed to multilateral financial institutions. Three factors contributed to the current debt burden. First, the initial years of transition b...
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This paper analyzes the behavior of output during currency crises using a sample of 195 crisis episodes in 91 developing countries during 1970-98. It finds that more than two-fifths of the crises in the sample were expansionary, and that output contraction was greater in large and more developed economies than in small and less developed economies....
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This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection a...
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This paper presents evidence that aid inflows can cause a significant but small real exchange rate appreciation and develops a theoretical model to identify the conditions under which a policy that prevents the real appreciation by sterilizing the base money effect of aid improves welfare. The empirical results are based on a real exchange rate mea...
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For decades, economists have tried with little success to model long-run movements in real-that is, adjusted for inflation-exchange rates. Almost all of the studies have focused on industrial countries, trying to pinpoint whether fundamentals such as government spending, current account imbalances, and differences in productivity and interest rates...
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This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using IMF data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 countries over 1980-2002....
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Abstract E-Mail Address: rbaqir@imf.org; rramcharan@imf.org;rsahay@imf.org ,,,,,,,,,,,,
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Este documento examina si el tipo de cambio real de países exportadores de commodities y el precio real de éstas se mueven juntos a lo largo del tiempo. Usando información del FMI sobre los precios mundiales de 44 commodities y su participación en las exportaciones totales de 58 países exportadores de commodities se construyen nuevos índices mensua...
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The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
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Since 1947, hyperinflations in market economies have been rare. More common have been longer inflationary processes at rates above 100 percent per annum. This paper examines the main characteristics of such very high inflation episodes. We find that (i) almost 20 percent of countries have experienced such episodes; (ii) higher inflation is more uns...
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This paper provides a brief and selective overview of research on the links between macroeconomic policies and poverty reduction. Using the Human Development Index as a measure of well-being, the progress made by 100 countries during 1975-98 is presented, and its association with macroeconomic factors is explored. Several potential avenues for futu...
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This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of other regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. A look at higher-frequency data during three crisis pe...
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The transition economies in Europe and the former Soviet Union between 1991 and 1999 differed widely in terms of total capital flows and the share and composition of private flows. With some exceptions (notably Russia), the main source of private inflows was foreign direct investment. Portfolio investment was volatile, and concentrated in a handful...
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While output declined in virtually all transition economies in the initial years, the speed and extent of the recovery that followed has varied widely across these countries. The contrast between the more and less successful transitions, the latter largely in the former Soviet Union, raises many questions about the relative roles played by adverse...
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What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economies? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for diffe...
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India has a long history of running fiscal deficits. Two broad considerations motivate a government to run a deficit: tax smoothing and tax tilting. This paper tests a version of Barro`s tax-smoothing model, using Indian data for the period 1951-52 to 1996-97. The empirical results indicate that the central government of India has tax-smoothed, whi...
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It is now over six years since the start of the Polish economic reform programme, and over four years since the break-up of the Soviet Union. A priori speculation about the nature of the economic transition can now give way to a discussion of what has happened so far, and to a better informed speculation — though speculation nonetheless — of what m...
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The current destination of Central and Eastern European countries -- explicitly for some, implicitly for all -- is Brussels. One simple measure, not without theoretical justification, is physical distance. This paper's focus, however, lies more in the distance in time and economic space. The paper fist compares income gaps between Central and Easte...
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India has a long history of running fiscal deficits. Two broad considerations motivate a government to run a deficit: tax smoothing and tax tilting. This paper tests a version of Barro's tax smoothing model, using Indian data for the period 1951-52 to 1966-97. The empirical results indicate that the central government of India has tax-smoothed, whi...
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Real wage declines have been common in the public sector in many countries over substantial periods of time. In several cases, such wage reductions have coincided with declines in the efficiency of the public sector. In a simple analytical framework, it is shown that higher wage levels alter the incentive-compatible equilibrium by attracting relati...
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"This paper examines the growth experience of 20 states of India during 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. We find evidence of absolute convergence--initially poor states grew faster than their initially rich counterparts. Also, the dispersion of real per capita state...
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Real wage declines have been common in the public sector in many countries over substantial periods of time. In several cases, such wage reductions have coincided with a decline in the efficiency of the public sector. In a simple analytical framework, it is shown that higher wage levels alter the incentive compatible equilibrium by attracting relat...
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Full-text available
The authors analyze the growth and stabilization experience in twenty-six transition economies in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia for the period 1989-94. Inflation rates have declined significantly in most countries following an inflation stabilization program. Typically, stabilization has been followed by growth within two ye...
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A simple model is developed to understand inflationary pressures and stabilization in non-market economies. It is shown that in the typical planned economy, the endogeneity of the money supply and the over-determination of the system (given that both prices and wages are set by the planners) imply that a permanent increase in wages leads to an ever...
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The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
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After most restrictions on foreign currency holdings were relaxed in the early 1990s, foreign currency deposits in transition economies have been increasing rapidly. This paper takes a first look at the evidence on dollarization for 15 transition economies, and then discusses some key conceptual and policy implications. Depending on the institution...
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This paper examines the nature and composition of capital flows in selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe during 1987–93. The data show that there was a remarkable turnaround in the capital account in 1992–93. This improvement was accompanied by widening current account deficits, an increase in real consumption, and real exchange rate app...
Article
This paper examines the growth experience of 20 states of India during 1961-91, using cross-sectional estimation and the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model. We find evidence of absolute convergence--initially poor states grew faster than their initially rich counterparts. Also, the dispersion of real per capita state i...
Article
Full-text available
A simple model is developed to understand inflationary pressures and stabilization in nonmarket economies. In light of the model, the paper reviews the inflation and stabilization experiences of several transition economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. These experiences are then compared to those of high inflation market economies...
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Full-text available
A simple model is developed to understand inflationary pressures and stabilization in nonmarket economies. In light of the model, the paper reviews the inflation and stabilization experiences of several transition economies in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. These experiences are then compared to those of high inflation market economies...
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Full-text available
This report examines the process of economic and financial integration in East Asia in the light of Europe's experience.� The report provides a comprehensive analysis of East Asian monetary and financial integration process (including a deep analysis of East Asia's response to the 1997-98 financial crisis), a comprehensive critical survey of the li...
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Although a centerpiece of the reform process in Central and Eastern Europe, large-scale privatization cannot be undertaken all at once and policymakers inevitably face the choice of privatizing some sectors before others, This paper analyzes the allocative efficiency implications of alternate sequences of privatization in a reforming planned econom...
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Widespread shortages in key inputs are common in mixed economies of developing countries. These shortages appear to occur at the same time that relatively high rates of capacity underutilization in manufacturing industries are observed. This paper develops a simple model which explains the existence of excess capacity when there are quantitative re...
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The presence of quotas on imported inputs that are based on installed capacity can lead to capacity underutilization in manufacturing industries of developing countries. A replacement of such quotas by tariffs leads to full-capacity utilization under both perfectly and imperfectly competitive markets. Furthermore, such a policy also eliminates stra...
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This paper shows that the presence of quotas on imported inputs that are based on installed capacity can lead to capacity underutilization in manufacturing industries of developing countries. A replacement of such quotas by tariffs leads to full capacity utilization under assumptions of both perfectly and imperfectly competitive markets. Furthermor...
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Clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic features of 75 patients of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC) living in the Gizan Area of Saudi Arabia and their follow-up, during a 2-year period, were characterized. Eighty-nine percent of the cases were defined histologically, whereas in the rest, ultrasonographic (US) evidence along with an alphafe...
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The enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to study the prevalence rates for hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), antibody to surface antigen (anti-HBs), and antibody to core antigen (anti-HBc) in 724 voluntary donors, students, pregnant women and those seeking treatment for minor ailments in the Gizan area of Saudi Arabia. Tests...
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This paper develops a two-period model to analyze the welfare effects of monetary policy in a typical aid-receiving country. We consider a small open economy with a closed capital account where the tradable sector raises overall productivity through learning-by-doing (LBD) externalities. Front-loading consumption aid increases current consumption b...
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Full-text available
After most restrictions on foreign currency holdings were relaxed in the early 1990s, foreign currency deposits in transition economies have been increasing rapidly. This paper takes a first look at the evidence on dollarization for 15 transition economies, and then discusses some key conceptual and policy implications. Depending on the institution...
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Typescript. Thesis (Ph.D.)--New York University, Graduate School of Arts and Science, 1990. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 98-101).

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