Rafaela Pérez

Rafaela Pérez
Complutense University of Madrid | UCM · Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE)

PhD

About

36
Publications
2,071
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206
Citations
Introduction
RESEARCH INTERESTS: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models; Fiscal and Monetary policy issues; Environmental en energy issues
Additional affiliations
April 1996 - present
Complutense University of Madrid
Position
  • Professor (Associate)

Publications

Publications (36)
Article
Full-text available
This article provides an estimation method to decompose monetary policy innovations into persistent and transitory components using the nonlinear Taylor rule proposed in Andolfatto, Hendry, and Moran (2008) [Are inflation expectations rational? Journal of Monetary Economics , 55 , 406–422]. To use the Kalman filter as the optimal signal extraction...
Article
In this paper we analyse the potential asymmetric response of retail prices for gasoline and diesel‐fuel to changes in oil prices for the Spanish economy and its relation with the so‐called ‘rockets and feathers’ behaviour. We show that the assumption made by previous studies, which use as the key explanatory variable the sign –positive or negative...
Article
Full-text available
This paper presents new evidence on the existence of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks in oil prices in the main European fuel markets and their relation to the so-called rockets and feathers effect. Our approach differs from the existing literature in two ways: (1) the data used: we use forward prices rather than spot prices because fuel l...
Article
This paper focuses on the impact of oil, natural gas and coal price shocks on the Spanish business cycle from 1969 to 2013. It uses Bayesian procedures to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The paper shows that natural gas and coal shocks are relevant sources of macroeconomic disruption in addit...
Article
This paper focuses on the impact of oil, natural gas and coal price shocks on the Spanish business cycle from 1969 to 2013. It uses Bayesian procedures to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for a small open economy. The paper shows that natural gas and coal shocks are relevant sources of macroeconomic disruption in addit...
Article
This paper analyzes the role of a variety of shocks as determinants of Spanish macroeconomic fluctuations before the international financial and economic crisis (1970-2008). To do this we estimate a small open economy stochastic model using Kalman Filter techniques. The set of estimated parameters allows the replication with remarkable accuracy of...
Article
This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the well-known Lucas (1982) model by allowing for the existence of monetary policy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: (a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run...
Article
In an endogenous growth model where the fiscal authority cannot commit to policy decisions beyond the current period, we explore the time-consistent optimal choice for two policy instruments: the income tax rate and the split of government spending between utility bearing consumption and productive services to firms. We show that under the time-con...
Article
Full-text available
In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain's macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact...
Article
We explore the implications of incorporating an elastic labor supply in an endogenous growth economy when characterizing the time-consistent Markov policy. We consider two policy instruments: an income tax rate and the split of government spending between consumption and production services. The Markov-perfect policy implies a higher income tax rat...
Article
This paper provides empirical evidence on monetary policy making for the US, the UK and the EMU using the decomposition in persistent and transitory monetary shocks proposed in Andolfatto, Hendry, and Moran [Journal of Monetary Economics 55 (2008) 406–422]. We use the particle filter to overcome the non-optimality of the Kalman filter that arises a...
Article
We illustrate that the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) could be the result of indeterminacy of equilibria. In a simple neoclassical growth model with a single environmental externality in households’ utility function and with public abatement, we characterize the condition on the parameters in preferences and in the pollution tec...
Article
In this article we examine the consequences of introducing tradable, nontradable and investment goods in a small open economy business cycle model in the case of Spain. The stochastic simulation of the model and its comparison to the Spanish economic data show that the model is able to mimic two prominent features of the Spanish cycle: (1) the dual...
Article
In an stylized endogenous growth economy with a negative externality created by CO2 emissions and in which abatement activities are made by private firms, we find a wide range of dynamically feasible green tax reforms yielding the double dividend without any need to assume a complex production structure or tax system, or a variety of externalities...
Article
In a very stylized endogenous growth economy with pollution and public abatement activities and without any production externality, we show that the government may exploit dynamic Laffer effects to achieve a double dividend through an environmental tax reform, while fulfilling its commitment to provide an exogenously specified sequence of expenditu...
Conference Paper
This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the well-known Lucas (1982) model by allowing for the existence of monetary policy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run...
Article
We study the dynamic properties of an endogenous growth model with pollution and public abatement activities in which the government establishes distorting taxes on the pollutant firms. First, we characterize the conditions for indeterminacy of equilibria under a second best setup and we show that two balanced growth paths can be found (one with a...
Article
Full-text available
En el trabajo se analiza la posibilidad de que una reforma impositiva verde permita obtener un dividendo doble en un modelo muy sencillo de crecimiento endógeno (modelo AK), en el que se incluye una externalidad medioambiental negativa en la función de utilidad. Se parte de una situación con un nivel no óptimo de gasto público (superior a la recaud...
Article
Full-text available
Optimal fiscal policy is indeterminate in a dynamic and stochastic environment. The complete characterization of the fiscal policy requires the use of identification constraints. In the literature either capital taxes or debt have been restricted to be not contingent on the state of nature. We propose a different type of identification constraints...
Article
Full-text available
Este artículo extiende el modelo neoclásico de crecimiento con capital público productivo mediante la incorporación de un índice de eficiencia de las infraestructuras. Este índice se supone dependiente de una variable de elección del gobierno, en concreto, el porcentaje del gasto público destinado a consumo público productivo. Se propone una regla...
Article
Full-text available
This paper discusses wether by implementing an environmental tax reform, a government may achieve a double dividend. We consider the simplest endogenous growth model (AK model) and include a negative environmental externality in the utility function. Pollution flow can be reduced by means of private abatenment activities. There is a predetermined n...
Article
Full-text available
This paper discusses the effects of a green tax reform in an AK growth model without abatement activities and with a negative environmental externality in utility function. There is also a non-optimal level of public spending. The results depend on the financing source of public spending. When there is not public debt, a revenue-neutral green tax r...
Article
Full-text available
In a one sector growth model with pollution in the utility function, the competitive equilibrium can be indeterminate for plausible values of the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption and under constant returns to scale. The tax rate on pollution does not enter the condition characterizing indeterminacy. This means that the governmen...
Article
Full-text available
Se formula un modelo teórico de equilibrio general con un sector público que acumula infraestructuras, en el que se incorpora un papel productivo para cierto consumo público que contribuye a un uso eficiente del capital público físico. Este modelo, de Uso Eficiente de las Infraestructuras, permite obtener conclusiones radicalmente distintas a las d...
Article
Full-text available
En este artículo se estudian los efectos de una reforma impositiva caracterizada por un incremento en el impuesto medioambiental, en un modelo de crecimiento endógeno AK en el que ningún agente dedica recursos a reducir la contaminación y en el que ésta aparece como una externalidad negativa en la función de utilidad del consumidor representativo....
Article
Full-text available
El objetivo de la Tesis es el análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos de los gastos públicos de consumo corriente destinados a la explotación y mantenimiento del capital público físico. Este objetivo se abarca desde una doble vertiente, empírica y teórica. Desde el punto de vista empírica se analizan los efectos dinámicos de ciertas partidas de con...
Article
Full-text available
This paper provides a theoretical discussion of the forward premium anomaly. We reformulate the Dutton model (Dutton, 1993) by allowing the existence of monetary policy regimes. The monetary supply is viewed as having two stochastic components: a) a persistent component that reflects the preferences of the central bank regarding the long-run money...
Article
Full-text available
This paper proposes an estimation method for persistent and transitory monetary shocks using the monetary policy modeling proposed in Andolfatto et al, [Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (2008), pp.: 406-422]. The contribution of the paper is threefold: a) to deal with non-Gaussian innovations, we consider a convenient reformulation of the state-sp...
Article
En este artículo se formula un modelo teórico de equilibrio general con un sector público que acumula infraestructuras, en el que se incorpora un papel productivo para cierto consumo público que contribuye a un uso eficiente del capital público físico. Este modelo, de Uso Eficiente de las Infraestructuras, permite obtener conclusiones radicalmente...

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