Rafael Soria

Universidad San Francisco de Quito · Department of Mechanical Engineering

Brazil is looking for innovative alternatives to supply the country's increasing electricity demand and provide flexibility to cope with higher shares of variable renewable energy (VRE). Concentrated solar power (CSP) can help solving this double challenge. Three energy planning tools, namely MESSAGE-Brazil, TIMES-TiPs-B and REMIX-CEM-B, have been...

Climate change can have an impact on natural and human systems. This is usually the case with renewable-energy-based energy systems, given their close dependence on climate conditions. For instance, long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind shear, among other factors, can affect the operation of existing energy systems and even comp...

The 2024 National Climate Change Mitigation Plan of Ecuador (PLANMICC) is the first long-term integrated strategy to guide the mitigation actions up to 2070 in energy, agriculture, LULUCF, residues and industrial processes. It seeks to achieve the ambitious target to reduce 70% of annual GHG emissions by 2070, in comparison to the BAU scenario. A n...

The growing interest of international mining companies in Ecuador has raised concerns about how these companies will manage environmental and social risks, particularly in Indigenous communities and fragile ecosystems. This study uses Sustainalytics’ ESG Risk Ratings to examine variations of ratings with respect to country of origin and firm size....

O trabalho analisa a viabilidade técnica econômica da aplicação de chapas de alumínio anodizado, no lugar de espelhos de vidro, no campo solar de plantas heliotérmicas de cilindro parabólico. Avalia-se a adaptação desta tecnologia para o caso brasileiro. A partir da análise qualitativa das especificações técnicas dos dois tipos de refletores, e das...

A indústria heliotérmica no Brasil ainda não está consolidada e para tanto é necessário avaliar os principais componentes que podem ser nacionalizados. No entanto existem diversos fatores que influenciam a escolha destes componentes que precisam de uma metodologia específica para sua avaliação. Optou-se pelo Método AHP de Auxílio Multicritério a De...

This study investigates the potential of Wave Energy Converters (WECs) technology in the Galapagos Islands. Despite the region's high wave energy potential (262 TWh/year of gross potential and 25TWh/year of sustainable potential), the current high cost of WEC technology limits its economic competitiveness compared to mature renewables like solar an...

A Wave Energy Converter (WEC) cannot operate efficiently if left alone floating to the mercy of the random sea surface. For a WEC to be efficient, its natural frequency should be close to the peak frequency of the local dominant waves. This paper introduces a method for tuning any natural frequency of a WEC to the peak frequency of a wave spectrum...

O estado atual da infraestrutura na Amazônia prioriza os interesses nacionais de desenvolvimento, particularmente nas indústrias extrativas e nas políticas industriais domésticas, às custas das populações locais e das preocupações ambientais. Isso levou a processos de desenvolvimento insustentáveis e de baixa qualidade, principalmente ao desmatamen...

El estado actual de la infraestructura en la Amazonía prioriza los intereses nacionales de desarrollo, particularmente en las industrias extractivas y las políticas industriales nacionales, a expensas de las poblaciones locales y las preocupaciones ambientales. Esto condujo a procesos de desarrollo insostenibles y de baja calidad, principalmente a...

The current state of infrastructure in the Amazon prioritizes national development interests, particularly in extractive industries and domestic industrial policies, at the expense of local populations and environmental concerns. This has led to unsustainable, low-quality development processes, mainly deforestation caused by existing transportation...

OSeMOSYS (Open Source Modelling System) es un modelo de equilibrio parcial que busca satisfacer la demanda energética en el horizonte de tiempo planteado, que se optimiza por mínimo costo. El modelo ofrece diversas ventajas debido a su fácil uso y su condición de código abierto, lo que le permite estar en constante actualización y evolución gracias...

Improvements in modeling energy systems of populous emerging economies are highly decisive for a successful global energy transition. The models used – increasingly published open source – still suffer from the lack of appropriate open data. As an illustrative example, we take the Brazilian energy system, which has great potential for renewable ene...

Infrastructure in the Amazon, Infrastructural policy for the Amazon

Conclusions Long-term trajectories of deep decarbonization pathways in Ecuador are evaluated in this work using an Integrated Assessment Model for Ecuador (ELENA). Results Abstract References [1]. Villamar, D.; Soria, R.; Rochedo, et al. Long-Term Deep Decarbonisation Pathways for Ecuador: Insights from an Integrated Assessment Model. Energy Strate...

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrate...

A Linear Fresnel Collector (LFC) is a solar concentrating technology with high potential for improvements and therefore significant cost reduction. However, LFC optimization studies found in literature show little agreement regarding optimal geometry. In this article, a study is presented to evaluate the trends of the main geometrical parameters in...

The current situation and the prospects for an increase in the biodiesel market share in Ecuador were analyzed. The substitution of up to 15% of diesel (4.88 million barrels) would be possible using the surplus of African palm oil and the pinion crop expansion (1000 times). This would decrease the emitted CO 2 (611,303 tons/year). Despite in Ecuado...

The Ecuador’s expansion plans for the power sector promote the exploitation of hydro power potential, natural gas and a small share of alternative renewable energies. In 2019, electricity generation reached 76.3% from hydroelectric power, 21.9% from thermal plants and 1.8% from other renewable resources. Although the power energy mix is mainly base...

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) represent 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the AFOLU sector greenhouse gases must be dramatically reduced and eventually transformed to net negative CO2e within this century. The decarbonisation choices will have significant environmental, social...

This work presents an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed for Ecuador, the so-called Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis model (ELENA). This model includes six distinctive sectors of the economy and displays the four geographic regions composing the country. The model enables to capture sectorial interactions, under a set of scenar...

In Brazil, the Amazon River has a high potential to harness hydraulic energy to generate electricity. This article presents a methodology to quantify the hydraulic potential for the hydrokinetic technology of the Amazon River’s segments, identifying and calculating the theoretical, geographic, technical and market potential of the places. The metho...

This work presents a computational code that calculates in a hard-link fashion the optical and thermal behavior of a linear Fresnel collector (LFC). The code was written in Python language and is composed by three parts. First, an optical model that computes the optical and étendue efficiencies, as well as the whole optical losses in the mirrors fi...

This work evaluates the techno-economic and market potential of the linear Fresnel concentration (LFC) technology to generate mid-temperature steam for the Ecuadorian industry. By means of simulations of LFCs in System Advisor Model (SAM), the performance and the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) were calculated. The solar LCOH was compared with the LC...

This work evaluates the techno-economic and market potential of the linear Fresnel concentration (LFC) technology to generate mid-temperature steam for the Ecuadorian industry. By means of simulations of LFCs in System Advisor Model (SAM), the performance and the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) were calculated. The solar LCOH was compared with the LC...

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America Project (DDPLAC), which included teams from Argentina, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and Mexico, ran from early 2018 through 2020 with the following goals. 1) Building of energy and emissions models where they did not previously exist to allow the establishment of domestic capacities for anal...

The integrated assessemnet model ELENA (Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis) is presented in this poster. The model was created by the National Polytechnic school of Ecuador, with the technical assistance of the COPPE institute, as part of the DDP-LAC project. The ELENA model is used to evaluate long-term decarbonization scenarios consider...

El proyecto “Mecanismos y redes de transferencias de tecnologías relacionadas con el cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe” (RG-T2384), preparado por el Banco lnteramericano de Desarrollo (BlD), fue aprobado por el Consejo del Fondo para el Medio Ambiente Mundial (FMAM, -GEF, por sus siglas en inglés-) el 11 de septiembre de 2014 y por el...

Global greenhouse gas emissions from energy production were approximately 40% higher in 2017 than in 2000 (International Energy Agency, 2018), and ambient particulate matter – one of the byproducts from fossil fuel combustion of most concern for public health – is now the fifth largest contributor to global disease (Cohen et al., 2017). Achieving t...

The technical, economic and commercial potential of solar photovoltaic technology for residential micro power generation in the urban area of the Metropolitan District of Quito is determined. Data of interest fromthe National Survey of Household Income and Expenses (ENIGHUR,by its acronym in Spanish) was collected. The obtained data was organized f...

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentin...

Renewable Energy development can generate co-benefits, such as jobs, income, and economic output. Concentrated Solar Power technology is a key technology for the electric power sector decarbonization as it generates dispatchable electricity, while also creates direct, indirect and induced jobs. Using an innovative methodology, this study estimates...

Energy subsidies cost Ecuador 7% of its public budget, or two thirds of the fiscal deficit. Removing these subsidies would yield local economic and environmental benefits and help implement climate targets set in the Paris Agreement. However, adverse effects on vulnerable households can make subsidy reforms politically difficult. To inform policy d...

This work presents a computational code that calculates in a hard-link fashion the optical and thermal behavior of a linear Fresnel collector (LFC). The code was written in Python language and is composed by three parts. First, an optical model that computes the optical and étendue efficiencies, as well as the whole optical losses in the mirrors fi...

All Latin America and the Caribbean countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to between 1.5C and 2C above pre-industrial levels. Those goals require reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by around 2050 and substantial reductions of CO2 emissions by 2030. Getting to Net-Zero Emissions takes stock of the le...

One of the crucial challenges faced by industry has been finding approaches that meet its increasing energy demand and decreasing reliance on non-renewable sources. Ecua-dorian policies promote the use of renewable sources of energy; nevertheless, there is limited research on concentrated solar energy in the country. Therefore, this review article...

O trabalho analisa a viabilidade técnica econômica da aplicação de chapas de alumínio anodizado, no lugar de espelhos de vidro, no campo solar de plantas heliotérmicas de cilindro parabólico. Avalia-se a adaptação desta tecnologia para o caso brasileiro. A partir da análise qualitativa das especificações técnicas dos dois tipos de refletores, e das...

Las reformas fscales verdes contribuirían a la mitigación del cambio climático, incrementarían la efcacia de los sistemas tributarios nacionales y generarían ingresos públicos adicionales. Algunos países en América Latina ya han dado los primeros pasos hacia ellas. Este artículo de opinión brinda una visión general de los desafíos más importantes p...

Resumen-El grupo de investigación SCINERGY de la Escuela Politécnica Nacional ha emprendido en la investigación y desarrollo de un colector solar de concentración tipo Fresnel para producción de calor de procesos (< 180ºC), que pueda ser construido con las capacidades tecnológicas locales. Este trabajo muestra los avances y los retos alrededor de e...

Los subsidios energéticos representan aproximadamente el 7% del gasto público anual de Ecuador, o dos tercios del déficit fiscal. La eliminación de estos subsidios produciría claros beneficios económicos y ambientales, ayudando a cumplir los objetivos climáticos establecidos en el Acuerdo de París. Sin embargo, los posibles efectos adversos en los...

Energy subsidies account for about 7% of Ecuador's yearly public spending, or two thirds of the fiscal deficit. Removing these subsidies would yield clear economic and environmental benefits and help implement climate targets set in the Paris Agreement. However, expected adverse effects on vulnerable households can make reforms politically difficul...

Green fiscal reforms would contribute to climate change mitigation, increase the economic efficiency of national tax systems and provide additional public revenues. Some countries in Latin America have already taken first steps towards green fiscal reforms. This outlook article provides an overview of the major challenges for the successful impleme...

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) caused an estimated 4.2 million deaths worldwide in 2015. However, PM emission standards for power plants vary widely. To explore if the current levels of these standards are sufficiently stringent in a simple cost-benefit framework, we compared the health benefits (avoided mon-etized health costs) with t...

Hydropower plays a critical role in global, South American and Ecuadorian energy policy and for achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-term climatic changes may affect the role of hydropower in meeting energy and climate policy objectives. The effects of climate change on runoff...

Green fiscal reforms would contribute to climate change mitigation, increase the economic efficiency of national tax systems and provide additional public revenues. Policy makers need to ensure that the overall political and macro-economic conditions are favorable for green fiscal reforms and develop comprehensive reform plans. Reforms cannot usual...

This work discusses on two alternative methodological approaches that aim at improving the modelling of variable renewable energy (VRE) and the integration of flexibility sources, specifically of flexible concentrated solar power (CSP) plants. To achieve the goal, in previous work we proposed soft-link [1] and hard-link [2] methodological approache...

With its abundance of renewable energy potentials, not only for hydropower and bioenergy, but also for wind and solar, Brazil provides good prospects for a carbon neutral energy system. The role of an enhanced coupling of the power, heat and transport sectors in such systems is not yet fully understood. This paper analyses the least-cost compositio...

The integration of planning into the energy system of a country is a matter of vital importance to achieve sustainable development. This chapter introduces the importance of energy planning in modern societies, highlighting the fundamental role of the State within the mentioned process. In this context, Section I.2 informs us about the background,...

One of the technologies that stand out as an alternative to provide additional flexibility to power systems with large penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE), especially for regions with high direct normal irradiation (DNI), is concentrated solar power (CSP) plants coupled to thermal energy storage (TES) and back-up (BUS) systems. Brazil ca...

A energia solar de concentração (CSP), embora não seja aplicada em larga escala no Brasil, tem um potencial importante em zonas específicas do território. Este trabalho analisa as diversas configurações de plantas centralizadas CSP com armazenamento de calor e hibridização, e as vantagens da sua operação no Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN). Dois...

The Brazilian Energy Research Company (EPE) presented a new tool to quantify the impact of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) based on multi-scenarios of energy supply and demand in Brazil. The Calculator 2050 was launched during the COP 22, in Marrakesh, and was developed by EPE in partnership with DECC/United Kingdom and collaboration of COPPE/UFRJ....

This paper contributes to the analysis made by an article recently published in this journal [1]. The purpose of this manuscript is to bring new contributions to this complex subject, namely the limits to the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into national grids. A detailed and advanced model has been used in this work in order to add...

My PhD thesis presentation

MESSAGE, TIMES and REMIX-CEM are potential tools for modelling a larger penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the Brazilian power system. They also allow devising the opportunities that concentrated solar power (CSP) plants offer to the power system and to the wider energy system. There are different opportunities for CSP in Brazil in...

This work evaluates implications of incorporating LCA-GHG (life cycle assessment of GHG emissions) into the optimisation of the power generation mix of Brazil through 2050, under baseline and low-carbon scenarios. Furthermore, this work assesses the impacts of enacting a tax on LCA-GHG emissions as a strategy to mitigate climate change. To this end...

Apresentação realizada na Universidade Federal de Sergipe (UFS)

Apresentação realizada na Univesidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)